US Economics Analysis (InvestSkill)Finance Skill

A US macroeconomic analysis skill covering economic indicators, yield curve analysis, credit market indicators, global macro comparison, and recession probability scoring. 5 key indicator categories: (1) Growth — GDP growth rate and components, employment data (NFP, unemployment rate, jobless claims), consumer spending and retail sales, manufacturing and services PMI; (2) Inflation Metrics — CPI, PCE, PPI, wage growth trends; (3) Monetary Policy — Fed policy stance, interest rates (Fed Funds rate, Treasury yields), money supply and bank lending, Fed meeting minutes and forward guidance; (4) Market Sentiment — consumer confidence indices, business sentiment surveys, credit spreads and risk indicators, market volatility (VIX); (5) Fiscal Policy — government spending and stimulus, tax policy changes, budget deficit and debt levels. Analysis framework: identify current economic cycle phase, assess policy implications for sectors, evaluate recession/expansion risks, determine impact on equity/bond/commodity markets, provide sector rotation recommendations. Yield Curve Analysis: 3 key spreads (2s10s, 3M10Y, 5s30s) with current/1yr avg/10yr avg/signal table; 5 curve shapes (Normal Steep, Flat, Inverted, Bear Steepening, Bull Steepening) with economic implications; 3M10Y inversion duration-to-recession lead time table (<3mo unreliable, 3-6mo → 12-18mo, 6-12mo → 6-15mo, >12mo high confidence within 12mo); "uninversion (re-steepening) is often the more immediate warning"; Fed rate cycle positioning (Hiking/Pause/Cutting with curve and equity implications); Real Yields (TIPS) — Real Yield = Nominal − Breakeven, rising real yields negative for long-duration assets, falling positive for growth/gold/EM, 10yr real yield thresholds (below 0% accommodative, above 2% restrictive), breakeven inflation 5yr5yr forward above 2.5% signals concern. Credit Market Indicators: IG OAS spreads (<100 bps normal, 100-150 caution, >150 stress); HY spreads (<350 normal, 350-500 caution, >500 distress, >800 crisis); "HY spreads lead equity markets by 2-4 weeks — widening HY while equities hold = warning"; TED Spread (<50 bps normal, 50-100 elevated, >100 crisis, peaked ~450 bps in 2008); MOVE Index (80-100 normal, 100-130 elevated, >150 crisis); credit as leading indicator (IG/HY spread widening before equity weakness, spread compression while equities lag = catch-up potential, IG vs. HY divergence, leveraged loan market). Global Macro Comparison: US vs. EU vs. China vs. Japan vs. UK economic cycle positioning table (Early Expansion → Mid → Late → Contraction → Recovery); PMI comparison across major economies (above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction, composite below 48 for 2+ months = recessionary); central bank divergence analysis (Fed/ECB/BOJ/BOE/PBOC rate table with divergence signals: Fed tightening while ECB/BOJ easing → USD strengthens, synchronized easing → global risk-on, BOJ normalization → JPY strengthens unwinding carry trades); DXY strength sector impact (rising DXY: headwind for multinationals/bearish commodities/bearish EM, falling DXY: tailwind/bullish/bullish; DXY >105 headwind for S&P 500, <95 tailwind; ~40% of S&P revenues foreign); EM vulnerability indicators (FX pressure, EMBI+ spread, capital outflow risks, China contagion, commodity-exporting EMs). Recession Probability Scoring: NY Fed recession model (3M10Y-based, 0-10% expansion, 10-25% low risk, 25-50% elevated, 50-75% high risk, >75% near-certain); Conference Board LEI (3+ consecutive monthly declines = strong warning, YoY decline >4% historically aligned with recessions, 10 leading indicators); Sahm Rule (3mo avg unemployment minus min of prior 12mo 3mo avg, ≥0.5pp threshold, triggered in every recession since 1970, works real-time without revision lag); Custom Composite Recession Probability (yield curve + LEI + Sahm + credit spreads + PMI, 0-25% Expansion, 25-50% Caution, 50-75% High Risk, 75-100% Near-Certain); historical recession episodes table (2001 dot-com -49%, 2008 GFC -57%, 2020 COVID -34%, 2022-2023 -25% bear market). Output: economic state summary, key risks and opportunities, sector and asset class implications, investment positioning recommendations. Investment Signal box with thesis invalidation checklist (Bullish breaks if: yield curve inverts >50bps AND leading indicators fall 3 consecutive months OR recession probability >60%; Bearish breaks if: yield curve normalizes AND PMI recovers above 52 for 2+ months). Pure prompt skill — no runtime, no dependencies, no API keys.

Snapshot quality

85/100

Snapshot risk

Medium

Audit conclusion

No blocking findings