Bear Case (Bearish Investor)Finance Skill

A deliberately one-sided bear case / short-seller red-team skill. 8-pillar analysis framework: (1) Valuation Stretch — multiple vs. history/peers, reverse-DCF (what growth/margin does today's price require), priced-for-perfection, PEG, value trap vs. bargain; (2) Deteriorating Fundamentals — revenue trajectory, margin compression, cash flow quality (FCF vs. net income), balance sheet stress (leverage, covenants, interest coverage), working capital red flags (inventory/DSO rising), returns on capital (ROIC below WACC = value destruction); (3) Accounting & Earnings-Quality Red Flags — aggressive revenue recognition, non-GAAP gaming, cash vs. accrual divergence, buyback-masked dilution, DSO/DIO trends (Beneish DSRI/SGI), auditor/disclosure issues; (4) Competitive & Secular Threats — moat erosion, disruption/obsolescence, secular decline, customer/supplier concentration, regulatory/legal overhang; (5) Management & Capital Allocation — value-destructive M&A, insider selling, governance red flags, credibility (repeated guide-downs); (6) Downside Catalysts & Timeline — near-term (0-6mo), medium-term (6-18mo), structural, each with trigger/magnitude/timing; (7) Downside Quantification — bear price target with math, scenario tree (base-bear vs. severe-bear with probabilities), risk/reward asymmetry, fundamental floor (book value, net cash); (8) Thesis-Killers (mandatory) — 3-5 developments that would invalidate the short thesis, strongest bull counterarguments, biggest risk to being short (squeeze, takeout, floor). Output: one-sided disclosure banner, 3-sentence bear thesis, Bear Case Strength Score (0-10 with 6 weighted pillars), detailed findings, downside target & risk/reward, thesis-killers. Data verification before analysis: fetch current price/52-week range/market cap, confirm key figures, state data source, flag stale data. 3 input formats: single-stock, counter a bull thesis (inverse mode), red-team a prior analysis. Investment Signal with score guide and thesis invalidation checklist. Pure prompt skill — no runtime, no dependencies, no API keys. Works on all AI platforms.

Snapshot quality

91/100

Snapshot risk

Medium

Audit conclusion

No blocking findings