White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. research snapshot
WTM AI stock analysis reads White Mountains Insurance Group as a disciplined, value-oriented P&C insurance and reinsurance holding company with a strong balance sheet, conservative capital allocation, and recurring fee income from Kudu and its MGA platforms. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, WTM traded near $2,181.81 with a verified market capitalization near $5.40 billion and a GAAP trailing P/E near 5.4x, which is flattered by realized investment gains. This page provides scenario ranges and source-checked data, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$2,181.81
Market cap
$5.40 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Disciplined P&C insurance holding company near book value with a low trailing P/E, but earnings are flattered by realized gains and the short-term technical read has turned cautious
Trend status
Trading in the upper portion of the 52-week range of $1,648 to $2,333, with BVPS near $2,170 and P/B near 1.0
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | White Mountains is a P&C insurance and reinsurance holding company that owns or invests in businesses including Ark/WM Outrigger, HG Global, Kudu, Distinguished Programs, and White Mountains Partners. Revenue comes from earned premiums, fee income, and investment returns, with a 37% TTM profit margin. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from underwriting discipline inherited from Jack Byrne, long-term relationships in specialty insurance markets, Kudu permanent capital solutions, regulatory approvals, and a conservative balance sheet. The moat is narrower than Berkshire Hathaway or Markel because the current portfolio of operating businesses is smaller. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Liam Caffrey and Chairman Weston Hicks have overseen portfolio reshaping from larger insurance operating companies to a leaner mix of specialty underwriting, MGA platforms, fee-based asset management, and operating companies. Recent moves include Kudu minority investments in Australian Financial Planning Group and Drummond Capital, White Mountains Partners acquisitions of BaseSix and Hawkeye Electric, a completed tender offer, buybacks, and dividends. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $2.82B and net income of $1.03B produce a 37% profit margin with ROE near 19% to 20%. Book value per share reached $2,170 at Q1 2026, down 1% from $2,188 at Q4 2025, which had risen 18% partly from realized gains. | High |
| Valuation | At $2,181.81, WTM trades at 5.40x TTM GAAP EPS and approximately 1.01x book value. EV/Revenue near 2.17x. Levered FCF yield near 4.6%. The low trailing P/E is flattered by realized gains; Barchart reports a normalized EPS near $208, which implies a P/E closer to 10x. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | WTM trades around $2,182, roughly 78% up the 52-week range of $1,648 to $2,333, with near-term support near $2,050 and resistance near $2,249. Barchart technical opinion reads weak sell with a weakening short-term outlook. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include insurance cycle softening, catastrophe losses, investment portfolio volatility, realized-gain dependence in reported EPS, concentration in a small number of operating businesses, Kudu investment performance, and key-person risk in a small organization. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and chart levels given insurance earnings variability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. WTM offers book value compounding with downside protection, but the small float, limited liquidity, and insurance cycle risk require patience. | Medium |
WTM AI stock forecast
The WTM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $2,181.81 quote and the TTM GAAP EPS of $404.38. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $1,617, a base area near $2,809, and a bullish area near $4,306 before dividends, with normalized earnings power as the key swing factor.
$4,200 to $4,400
More likely if underwriting remains profitable, Kudu grows fee income through new minority investments, investment returns stay strong, and the market re-rates WTM closer to 8x earnings as consistent operating performance is demonstrated.
$2,700 to $2,900
More likely if WTM compounds book value near 5% annually, maintains underwriting discipline, returns capital through buybacks and dividends, and trades near 6x earnings.
$1,550 to $1,680
More likely if the insurance cycle turns, catastrophe losses mount, realized gains fade and earnings normalize toward the $200 to $250 per share range, or the stock de-rates closer to 4x earnings as reported EPS resets.
WTM AI technical analysis
WTM AI technical analysis shows the stock in the upper portion of its 52-week range as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Price holds above the 1-month low near $2,050 with the 52-week high of $2,333 as the ceiling, while Barchart technical opinion reads weak sell with a weakening short-term outlook.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $2,181.81 | Based on the August 3, 2026 intraday quote with a previous close of $2,182.32 and a session range of $2,146.50 to $2,208.00. |
| Near support | $2,146 to $2,050 | The August 3 session low near $2,146 is the first floor, with the 1-month low of $2,050 (July 1) as the next support zone. |
| Deeper support | $1,987 to $1,648 | The 3-month low near $1,987 (June 11) and the 52-week low near $1,648 (October 1) mark deeper support. A break below $1,648 would reset the technical picture. |
| Fibonacci levels | $2,071, $1,991, $1,910 | Retracements of the 52-week range from the $1,648 low: 61.8% near $2,071, 50% near $1,991, and 38.2% near $1,910. |
| Near resistance | $2,208 to $2,249 | The August 3 session high near $2,208 and the 1-month high of $2,249.05 (July 20) form the near-term resistance zone. |
| Resistance ceiling | $2,333 | The 52-week high reached April 17, 2026, is the ceiling. A high-volume breakout above it would signal a new uptrend continuation. |
| Momentum | Barchart weak sell, 16% sell | Barchart technical opinion reads weak sell with a weakening short-term outlook, consistent with a stock that has drifted below its July peak. |
| Volume | Average volume of about 20,821 shares | WTM has a small float and correspondingly low average volume, which can amplify price moves on any given day. |
| Volatility | Low beta of 0.29 | The 0.29 beta indicates WTM has historically moved less than the broad market, which can provide relative stability in drawdowns. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1,987 | A close below the 3-month low of $1,987 would suggest near-term weakness. A sustained break below $1,648 would challenge the longer-term uptrend. |
WTM AI trading strategy
The WTM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a P&C insurance holding company trading near book value with a low trailing P/E. It is not personal advice and should be paired with current filings, price data, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for WTM to hold above the $2,146 support and build toward the $2,208 to $2,249 resistance zone. A high-volume breakout above $2,333 (52-week high) would signal a new uptrend continuation.
A close below $1,987 or a failed breakout attempt on above-average volume should invalidate the near-term bullish setup.
If WTM pulls back toward the $2,050 to $2,080 zone while book value stays stable or grows, monitor the P/B ratio. Historically, WTM has been a value holding where accumulation during pullbacks has rewarded patient holders.
If P/B falls below 0.8x alongside deteriorating book value, the value thesis needs reassessment. Set a maximum position size rule given the low liquidity.
Track quarterly BVPS changes, Ark combined ratio, Kudu AUM growth and fee income, HG Global insured par outstanding, White Mountains Partners acquisition activity, share buyback and tender pace, and investment portfolio performance.
Reduce confidence if underwriting discipline weakens, book value declines in two consecutive quarters, or the company makes a large transformation acquisition that changes its risk profile.
Investment research summary
White Mountains owns and manages insurance and insurance-related businesses. Clients and partners pay for underwriting capacity, permanent capital solutions, MGA platform capabilities, and specialty risk coverage. The company generates returns through underwriting profits, fee income, and investment gains.
The moat draws on four decades of underwriting discipline, a reputation for being a good counterparty, permanent capital from Kudu, regulatory licenses, and deep relationships in specialty insurance markets. The current moat is narrower than peers like Berkshire Hathaway or Markel because the portfolio of operating businesses is smaller and less diversified.
The thesis fails if insurance cycle deterioration compresses margins across Ark and HG, a major catastrophe event tests reserves, realized gains fade and reported earnings normalize toward $200 to $250 per share, Kudu investment performance disappoints and AUM shrinks, the small float creates liquidity disconnects, or the management team fails to replace legacy earnings from sold businesses.
CEO Liam Caffrey and Chairman Weston Hicks have reshaped White Mountains from a larger P&C insurer into a leaner holding company with four main platforms: Ark (specialty insurance), HG Global (municipal bond insurance), Kudu (asset management capital solutions), and Distinguished (MGA). Recent capital allocation includes Kudu minority investments, White Mountains Partners acquisitions, a completed tender offer, buybacks, and dividends.
The P&C insurance industry faces a mixed outlook. Hard market conditions in certain lines support underwriting profits, but social inflation, catastrophe loss trends, and investment market volatility create headwinds. The shift toward MGA and fee-based models is a positive structural trend that WTM is participating in through Kudu and Distinguished.
At roughly 5.4x TTM GAAP earnings and about 1.0x book value, WTM appears inexpensive on a trailing basis, but the trailing EPS is flattered by realized gains. If earnings normalize closer to $200 to $250 per share, the P/E would be approximately 9x to 11x, which is closer to fair value for a low-growth insurance holding company.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTM price | $2,181.81 (August 3, 2026 intraday; previous close $2,182.32) | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.40 billion, verified as $2,181.81 x 2.477 million shares (0.01% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.82 billion (Yahoo) vs $3.735B (Barchart), with discrepancy from reporting methodology | Yahoo Finance / Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $1.03 billion (Yahoo) vs $1.106B (Barchart) | Yahoo Finance / Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $2,170 as of March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026, down 1% QoQ); $2,188 at December 31, 2025 (Q4 2025, up 18%) | White Mountains quarterly results | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.63 billion total cash, total debt/equity of 13.52% | Yahoo Finance balance sheet summary | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.477 million shares | Barchart key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E and P/B | GAAP P/E 5.40x TTM (Yahoo EPS $404.38), normalized P/E near 10x (Barchart EPS $208.32), P/B ~1.01x | financial_rigor.py valuation verification / Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.29 (5-year monthly) | Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | Hold rating based on 2 analysts tracked by Barchart | Barchart analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Support near $2,050 and $1,987, resistance near $2,249 and $2,333, 52-week range $1,648 to $2,333, Barchart opinion weak sell | Barchart overview and price performance | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell WTM stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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