Werner Enterprises, Inc. research snapshot
WERN AI stock analysis currently reads Werner Enterprises as a mid-cap truckload transportation and logistics company navigating a soft freight cycle. The July 10, 2026 closing quote was $43.85 and the calculated market capitalization was $2.63 billion. TTM revenue reached approximately $3.07 billion, but TTM net income was negative at around -$14.4 million as the freight downcycle compressed operating margins. The key question is whether the trucking market recovery and expected earnings inflection materialize in the second half of 2026 and beyond. This WERN AI stock analysis is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$43.85
Market cap
$2.63 billion calculated, compared with $2.63 billion reported reference
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Mid-cap truckload carrier with cyclical freight headwinds, negative trailing earnings, and an expected inflection toward profitability
Trend status
Strong positive momentum with the stock up 46% YTD and near the 52-week high of $45.27
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Werner operates one of the larger US truckload fleets with dedicated contract carriage, one-way truckload, intermodal, brokerage, and final-mile services. The diversified logistics segment and cross-border Mexico operations add complexity but also revenue breadth. | Medium |
| Moat | Scale, fleet size, driver network, Mexico cross-border expertise, and customer relationships provide some competitive advantages, but trucking remains a fragmented, capital-intensive industry with low switching costs and significant pricing competition. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Derek Leathers has led since 2018. Management has invested in technology, fleet modernization, and logistics expansion while maintaining a dividend. The stock buyback authorization of 5M shares signals confidence, but capital allocation during a downcycle is the key test. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $3.07 billion shows modest growth from the prior year, but net income turned negative (-$14.4M TTM) as operating margins compressed below 1% in recent quarters. The financial trend reflects the broader freight recession. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $43.85, trailing P/E is not meaningful due to negative EPS. Forward P/E is approximately 22x based on the Street consensus EPS estimate of $2.01. P/S of 0.88x and P/CF of 9.2x are more informative for the current cycle phase. | Medium for math, low for forward estimates |
| Technical trend | The stock is up 46% YTD, trading near the 52-week high of $45.27 set on June 9, 2026. The strong upward move from the November 2025 low of $23.06 gives a positive technical setup, but nearness to the 52-week high raises the risk of consolidation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high due to cyclical freight demand, compressed operating margins, negative trailing EPS, elevated short interest of 7.4%, mixed analyst consensus (mostly Hold with several Sell ratings), and Mexico cross-border geopolitical exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported market data and quarterly revenue figures are well documented. Balance-sheet details (cash, total debt) were harder to verify from public APIs. Forward earnings estimates carry inherent optimism risk. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The page supports a research process, not a buy or sell decision. The July 28, 2026 Q2 earnings report will provide an important update on margin trajectory and the freight demand outlook. | Low-medium |
WERN AI stock forecast
The WERN AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges from the July 10, 2026 close, current book value of $22.78, forward EPS consensus of $2.01, and earnings-multiple assumptions. Because trailing EPS is negative, the ranges rely more on book value and P/B multiples than on P/E. The ranges change if freight demand, operating margins, balance-sheet leverage, or market valuation multiples change.
$55.00 or higher
More likely if the freight cycle recovers meaningfully in H2 2026, operating margins expand above 5%, EPS reaches $2.50-$3.00, the stock buyback reduces share count, and the market assigns a 22-25x P/E multiple or a P/B above 2.5x.
About $40.00 to $44.00
More likely if the freight recovery is gradual, EPS reaches the $2.00 neighborhood, the dividend is sustained, and the market assigns a roughly 20-22x P/E or a P/B of about 1.8x.
About $24.00 to $32.00
More likely if freight demand stays soft or deteriorates, margins remain below 3%, earnings disappoint, short interest rises further, and the stock reverts toward book value or below at a P/B of 1.0-1.4x.
WERN AI technical analysis
WERN AI technical analysis uses the $43.85 July 10, 2026 closing quote and public market snapshots. This static page cannot fetch live chart data. Support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, and volatility must be rechecked in a current chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.85 | Closing price on July 10, 2026, near the 52-week high of $45.27. |
| Near support | $40.00 to $42.00 | The round number and recent consolidation zone near the prior breakout level. |
| Near resistance | $45.27 to $47.00 | The 52-week high from June 9, 2026 at $45.27 and round-number psychology near $47 define the first overhead zone. |
| 52-week range | $23.06 to $45.27 | The stock has traded in a wide range over the past year, reflecting the swing from freight-cycle pessimism to recovery optimism. |
| Momentum | Strong positive | WERN is up 46% YTD and 35.5% over the past 3 months. Momentum supports the bullish case but also raises mean-reversion risk near the high. |
| Volume | Confirm live volume | Average daily volume is approximately 970K shares. Check volume confirmation on any move through resistance or support. |
| Volatility | Above average | Beta of 1.26 and a freight-cycle-dependent earnings profile mean quarterly results and forward guidance can produce outsized moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $40.00 | This is a framework trigger, not a guaranteed stop price. Reassess the freight-cycle thesis and live chart if it occurs. |
WERN AI trading strategy
The WERN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a mid-cap cyclical trucking stock. It is not personalized advice. Position size, loss limits, and a fresh review of live price, volume, Q2 2026 earnings (July 28, 2026), and freight-demand indicators should come before any action.
If WERN breaks and holds above the $45.27 52-week high with above-average volume, the existing uptrend may accelerate. Wait for the breakout to confirm with a close above resistance before adding exposure.
Exit or tighten stops if the breakout fails and price drops back below $45 or below the $44 support zone. Use the Q2 2026 earnings report as a fundamental checkpoint.
If WERN pulls back toward $40-$42, evaluate whether the freight cycle is genuinely improving. Compare the pullback with industry indicators, forward estimates, and book value support near $22.78 for downside context.
Do not average down without a preset maximum loss. The $22-$24 area (near trough book value) represents a worst-case framework level, not a target.
Track Werner's quarterly operating margin, revenue per truck, freight demand indicators (Cass Freight Index, ATA Truck Tonnage), Mexico cross-border conditions, share buyback progress, and debt levels.
Reduce conviction if the freight recovery disappoints, operating margins stay below 2%, short interest continues rising, or the dividend is cut.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Werner to move freight reliably across the US, Canada, and Mexico. The truckload model depends on fleet utilization, driver retention, fuel-cost management, pricing discipline, and the broader freight economy. The logistics segment provides brokerage and intermodal services that add revenue diversity but carry thinner margins.
Werner's moat rests on fleet scale, cross-border Mexico expertise, a 70-year brand in trucking, and long-term dedicated contract relationships. However, trucking is a fragmented, asset-intensive industry with low switching costs, and customers can shift freight to competitors (JBHT, KNX, ODFL) or private fleets relatively easily.
The thesis fails if the freight recovery takes longer than expected, margins stay compressed, the company burns cash covering debt service and capex, short sellers are proven right about structural industry weakness, or Mexico cross-border disruptions escalate. Negative trailing EPS means there is no earnings buffer to absorb further deterioration.
CEO Derek Leathers and his team have invested in fleet technology, driver amenities, logistics capabilities, and a 5M-share buyback authorization. The key capital-allocation challenge is balancing fleet investment, debt management, dividend payments, and buybacks through the freight cycle without overextending.
Freight demand is cyclical and currently in a soft patch after the post-pandemic normalization. Long-term trends favor large carriers with scale, technology, and cross-border capabilities, but the industry faces structural headwinds from private-fleet growth, autonomous truck development, and potential regulatory changes.
At $43.85, WERN trades at 0.88x sales, 1.92x book value, and approximately 22x forward EPS consensus of $2.01. The PEG ratio of 0.89 suggests the stock is cheap relative to expected earnings growth, but only if the freight recovery and margin expansion actually materialize. Book value of $22.78 provides a long-term floor.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $43.85 | CNBC WERN quote snapshot | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 59.95 million | CNBC WERN key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.63 billion | CNBC and Google Finance WERN data | July 13, 2026 |
| Trailing 12-month revenue | Approximately $3.07 billion | CNBC WERN financials and quarterly reports | July 13, 2026 |
| Trailing 12-month net income | Approximately -$14.4 million | CNBC WERN financials and quarterly reports | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP EPS | -$0.15 to -$0.16 | CNBC and MarketBeat WERN data | July 13, 2026 |
| Forward EPS estimate | Approximately $2.01 | MarketBeat WERN analyst estimates | July 13, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $22.78 | MarketBeat WERN data | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend (annual / yield) | $0.56 per share / 1.28% yield | CNBC WERN dividend data | July 13, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | 0.66 | MarketBeat WERN data | July 13, 2026 |
| Price-to-sales ratio | 0.88x | Barchart WERN valuation data | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash flow per share | $4.77 | MarketBeat WERN cash flow data | July 13, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell WERN. Forecasts are scenarios based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, live market data, and your own risk assessment.
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