WD-40 Company research snapshot
WDFC AI stock analysis as of August 3, 2026 reads WD-40 Company as a high-quality, asset-light global maintenance brand with an iconic franchise, a TTM gross margin near 55.8%, strong operating leverage, and a raised fiscal 2026 outlook. The July 9 Q3 report showed net sales up 24% and operating income up 47%, but management also flagged that Middle East-driven input cost inflation would pressure gross margins into the fourth quarter. The stock gapped to $298.90 on July 10 and has since retraced to about $227.82, with a market capitalization around $3.06 billion, so the central question is whether the pullback has reset the premium valuation enough for the durable growth story.
Current price
$227.82
Market cap
$3.06 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality brand franchise at a fairer multiple after the pullback, with near-term gross margin risk from input costs
Trend status
Post-earnings spike fully retraced; price back near the June breakout zone testing the 50-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | WD-40 runs an asset-light, high-margin franchise: TTM gross margin 55.8%, operating margin 17.5%, free cash flow of $79.5 million, with maintenance products making up 97% of sales and steady replacement demand across 176 countries. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on the iconic WD-40 brand, proprietary formula, habit-based repeat buying, deep distribution across hardware, auto, industrial, retail, and e-commerce channels, and proven pricing power. It is stable to widening with premiumization. | High |
| Management | CEO Steve Brass has executed premiumization and international expansion since 2022. Capital allocation stays disciplined: dividends raised to $4.08 and a new $100 million buyback authorized on June 15, 2026. A planned leadership transition is underway, including the CFO moving to President of Americas. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q3 FY2026 net sales grew 24% to $195.1 million, operating income rose 47% to $40.3 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS reached $2.33 versus $1.54. FY2026 guidance was raised to $675 to $690 million of reported revenue and $6.05 to $6.35 of non-GAAP EPS, with gross margin guided down to 54.5% to 55.5% on input costs. | High |
| Valuation | At $227.82, WDFC trades at about 34.6x TTM EPS, 38.5x free cash flow, and 4.5x sales. That is down from 40x+ at the July peak but still a premium to specialty chemical peers and above the three-scenario base case. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The post-earnings spike to $298.90 has fully retraced. Price at $227.82 sits just below the 20-day moving average of $240.93 and right at the 50-day moving average of $228.70, with a short-term pullback structure and a very low beta of 0.25 to 0.27. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are gross margin compression from Middle East input cost inflation, demand pulled forward into Q3, an elevated multiple versus peers, foreign exchange headwinds, and product concentration around the WD-40 Multi-Use can. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive analysis and financial math from cross-validated data. Lower for forward returns because gross margin recovery and the terminal multiple are hard to forecast in a volatile cost environment. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business quality is high and the entry multiple has reset lower, but near-term margin pressure and an above-base valuation keep investment certainty medium. A wider margin of safety appears around the base-case zone of $200 to $215. | Medium |
WDFC AI stock forecast
The WDFC AI stock forecast is scenario math, not a promise. Using an August 3, 2026 price near $227.82, TTM EPS of $6.58, and a three-year framework, the computed range spans a bearish area near $132, a base area near $206, and a bullish area near $273. These outputs depend on EPS growth, input cost trends, and the terminal earnings multiple.
$255 to $285
More likely if WD-40 sustains mid-to-high single digit organic growth, gross margin recovers toward 56% through pricing and cost actions, Specialist and premiumized products keep growing at double digits, and the stock holds a 30x+ earnings multiple.
$195 to $215
More likely if WDFC grows EPS around 5% a year, gross margin settles near 55%, and the market assigns a mid-20s earnings multiple consistent with quality consumer staples.
$120 to $140
More likely if Middle East escalation pushes input costs higher for longer, gross margin falls below 54%, consumer demand softens, or the PE multiple contracts toward the high teens.
WDFC AI technical analysis
WDFC AI technical analysis as of August 3, 2026 shows a full retracement of the post-earnings move. The stock gapped to a 52-week high of $298.90 on July 10 and closed at $264.91, then drifted lower through late July to around $227.82, back at the June breakout zone and right at the 50-day moving average of $228.70. The 20-day moving average of $240.93 sits above price, so the short-term trend remains a pullback. Beta is very low at 0.25 to 0.27, which limits downside volatility relative to the broad market.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $227.82 | stockanalysis.com intraday quote on August 3, 2026; previous close was $227.14 on July 31. |
| 50-day moving average | $228.70 | Price is currently testing this level. A sustained hold here would stabilize the pullback. |
| 20-day moving average | $240.93 | Sits above price, confirming the short-term pullback after the July 10 spike. |
| Near support | $222 to $224 | The July 29 low near $222 and the June breakout base. First zone to watch on weakness. |
| Deeper support | $205 to $213 | The June 8 to June 9 consolidation gap. A close below $222 would open this zone. |
| Near resistance | $233 to $237 | Late-July swing highs that have capped rallies since July 21. |
| Key resistance | $240 to $247 | The 20-day moving average near $241 and the early-July consolidation area. |
| Upper resistance | $255 to $265 | The July 16 high and the lower edge of the post-earnings gap. |
| Momentum | Weakening from overbought | Price below the 20-day average and retesting the 50-day after the earnings spike to $298.90. |
| Volume | Elevated on the retracement | July 10 volume hit 1.17 million shares versus a late-July daily average near 146,000. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.25 to 0.27 | Very low beta. WDFC moves less than the broad market in both directions. |
| Invalidation | Close below $222 | A decisive close below the June breakout base would shift the setup toward the $205 to $213 zone. |
WDFC AI trading strategy
The WDFC AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It combines the Q3 fundamental evidence, the post-earnings price structure, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for WDFC to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $228.70 and then the 20-day near $240.93 on rising volume, which would signal the pullback is over and open the path toward the $255 to $265 zone.
A daily or weekly close below $222 invalidates the setup. Keep position sizing modest because the post-earnings range is wide and gross margin news can move the stock quickly.
If WDFC holds the $222 to $224 support zone without a thesis break, the pullback may be exhausted given the raised guidance, the new buyback, and strong Q3 results. A stabilization in the $215 to $225 area is the zone to study for re-entry.
Do not average down unless the maximum loss is defined before entry. An earnings or margin miss could re-test the $205 to $213 zone quickly.
Track quarterly gross margin against the 54.5% to 55.5% FY2026 guide, maintenance product growth by region, WD-40 Specialist and premiumized product growth, buyback execution, and any FY2027 margin recovery signals.
Reduce confidence if gross margin falls below 54%, Middle East conditions escalate further, or organic growth drops below mid-single digits.
Investment research summary
WD-40 sells simple, effective maintenance and cleaning products that customers rebuy on habit. Manufacturing and distribution are largely outsourced, so the asset-light model turns an iconic brand into high-margin, recurring cash flow.
The moat combines an iconic global brand with near-universal recognition, a proprietary formula, deep distribution across 62 trade channels in 176 countries, habit-based repeat demand, and proven pricing power. No competitor matches the brand equity in the multi-purpose maintenance category.
The thesis fails if Middle East-driven input costs compress gross margin below the low 50s for several quarters, if price increases hurt volumes, if private label gains shelf space, or if demand pulled forward into Q3 simply borrowed from Q4.
Steve Brass-led management has sharpened the strategy around premiumization, geographic expansion, e-commerce, and WD-40 Specialist growth, and has raised guidance while authorizing a new $100 million buyback. A planned leadership transition is underway, including the CFO moving to President of Americas.
Maintenance products sit in stable end markets with replacement demand tied to the global vehicle parc and infrastructure upkeep. The trend is neutral to favorable rather than a paradigm shift, which suits a steady compounder more than an explosive grower.
At about $228 and $3.06 billion of market value, WDFC trades at roughly 34.6x TTM earnings, a lower multiple than the July peak but still a premium. Margin of safety is limited; the base case sits near $206, and the stock is more attractive on a pullback into the $200 to $215 area or on evidence that margins recover.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| WDFC price | $227.82 intraday on August 3, 2026; previous close $227.14 on July 31 | stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.06 billion, verified as $227.82 x 13.42 million shares (deviation 0.09%) | financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 13.42 million basic shares | stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $175.38 to $298.90 | stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 net sales | $195.1 million, up 24% year over year | WD-40 Company Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 operating income | $40.3 million, up 47% year over year | WD-40 Company Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS | $2.33 versus $1.54 in the prior year quarter | WD-40 Company Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Reported net sales $675 to $690 million (+10% to +12%), non-GAAP EPS $6.05 to $6.35, gross margin 54.5% to 55.5% | WD-40 Company Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $674.68 million, up 10.2% (cross-validated across three sources) | financial_rigor.py cross-validate and stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $89 million TTM net income; diluted EPS $6.58 | stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Gross margin | TTM 55.82%; Q3 FY2026 56.6% (up 40 basis points year over year) | stockanalysis.com and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $79.5 million | stockanalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $59.14 million; total debt $110.95 million; net debt $51.82 million | stockanalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.02 quarterly ($4.08 annualized, about 1.8% yield); ex-date July 17, 2026 | stockanalysis.com and WD-40 Company release | August 3, 2026 |
| Share buyback | $100 million new authorization announced on June 15, 2026 | WD-40 Company and TheFly | August 3, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 34.6x, verified as $227.82 / $6.58 | financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.25 (5-year monthly); 0.27 on stockanalysis.com | Yahoo Finance and stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating; average price target $271.67, low $245, high $305 (4 analysts) | stockanalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation | Three-year framework: bear near $132, base near $206, bull near $273 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
This WDFC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market data, and your own risk constraints.
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