Vodafone Group Plc research snapshot
VOD AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Vodafone Group Plc as a European and African connectivity operator in the middle of a repositioning, with the NASDAQ ADS at $15.78 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $36.53 billion, re-verified as $15.78 times about 2.309 billion ADS-equivalent shares. On July 27, 2026 the company reported Q1 FY27 results with group service revenue up 5.2% on an organic basis and 9.8% on a reported basis including Three UK and Safaricom, raised full-year adjusted EBITDAaL guidance to EUR 13.0 billion to 13.3 billion including the Safaricom consolidation, resumed dividend growth for the first time since 2018, and confirmed it expects to land at the upper end of its adjusted free cash flow range. The AI score recognizes the improved operating momentum, but the VOD AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because the group still reports a statutory loss, carries elevated leverage, and trades above the tracked analyst consensus price target of $13.45. This page is an informational research tool and not investment advice.
Current price
$15.78
Market cap
$36.53 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Improved service growth and a resumed dividend, offset by leverage and a negative earnings base
Trend status
Neutral to mildly bullish, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but below the 20-day after the July 27 rally faded from the $16.61 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vodafone sells mobile, fixed, broadband, business connectivity, IoT, cloud, security, and financial services across Europe and Africa, with group service revenue up 5.2% organically in Q1 FY27. | High |
| Moat | Spectrum, networks, local brands, enterprise relationships, a global IoT platform, and African mobile money scale create advantages, but competition and regulation limit pricing power, especially in German consumer mobile. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Margherita Della Valle has simplified the portfolio, completed the Three UK merger, closed the Safaricom controlling stake, resumed the dividend, and guided to the upper end of FY27 cash flow. The test is whether this becomes durable organic free cash flow growth. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY26 total revenue was EUR 40.5 billion with a statutory loss of EUR 397 million, while adjusted EBITDAaL was EUR 11.4 billion. Q1 FY27 organic service revenue rose 5.2% and FY27 guidance was raised to EUR 13.0 to 13.3 billion adjusted EBITDAaL including Safaricom. | High |
| Valuation | At $15.78, StockAnalysis.com lists a forward PE of 12.91, price to book of 0.58, price to cash flow of 3.36, EV/EBITDA of 4.97, and a 3.18% dividend yield. The tracked four analyst consensus is Sell with a $13.45 target, about 15% below the July 31 close. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $15.78 sits above the 50-day moving average near $14.76 and the 200-day near $14.15 but below the 20-day near $15.07 after the post results rally faded from the $16.61 52 week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because of leverage, interest costs, German competition, UK integration, spectrum and network spending, regulation, foreign exchange, and a statutory loss base. Short interest near 0.39% of shares outstanding limits squeeze risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported operating results and market statistics are well documented and cross checked during the August 2 2026 refresh. The main uncertainty is the durability of cash conversion and the mix of per share bases used for ADR math. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | A stronger case needs proof that adjusted free cash flow keeps growing after integration costs, that net debt falls toward the lower half of the 2.25x to 2.75x leverage range, and that Germany stabilizes. | Medium-low |
VOD AI stock forecast
The VOD AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a fixed target because regulated telecom outcomes depend on service revenue, margin, capital intensity, currency, debt, interest, competition, and integration. A three year mechanical model builds on a forward earnings proxy of about $1.22 per ADS, which is consistent with the 12.91 forward PE at the July 31 close, and produces roughly $22 in a bullish case, $16 in a base case, and $10 in a bearish case before dividends. These are auditable scenario outputs, not price promises.
$19 to $25 per ADS
More likely if organic adjusted free cash flow keeps growing double digit, net debt falls into the lower half of the target leverage range, the dividend grows again, Germany stabilizes, UK integration synergies land, and the market re-rates the ADS toward 12x to 13x forward earnings.
$13 to $18 per ADS
More likely if service growth and the raised EBITDAaL guidance broadly hold, adjusted free cash flow lands near the upper end of EUR 2.6 to 2.9 billion, leverage declines slowly, and investors continue to discount execution, integration, and financing risk.
$8 to $12 per ADS
More likely if German competition or UK integration costs worsen, currency and interest costs absorb cash flow, the statutory loss persists, dividend growth stalls, or the market moves toward the tracked analyst consensus target near $13.45.
VOD AI technical analysis
VOD AI technical analysis was neutral to mildly bullish at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com listed a $15.78 close on July 31, 2026, a 50-day moving average near $14.76, a 200-day near $14.15, a 20-day near $15.07, and a 14 day RSI near 58. The July 27 earnings pop pushed the ADS to a 52 week high near $16.61, and the pullback below the 20 day average left the short term setup mixed. Technical levels are dated market references, not a forecast.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $15.78 per ADS | StockAnalysis.com listed this NASDAQ ADS close for July 31, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $14.75 to $15.00 | The 50-day moving average near $14.76 and the round $15 area form the first test zone below the July 31 close. |
| Deeper support | $13.75 to $14.25 | The 200-day moving average near $14.15 is the next longer term level. A sustained break would weaken the medium term trend. |
| Near resistance | $16.00 to $16.61 | The 5-day average near $16.05 and the 52 week high of $16.61 cap the upside until the rally resumes with volume. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $15.07, 50-day $14.76, 200-day $14.15 | The July 31 close is above the 50-day and 200-day averages but below the 20-day, which is a mixed short term signal. |
| Momentum | RSI 58.05, ADX 29.66 | Momentum is constructive but not extreme. The 14 day ADX near 30 is consistent with a developing trend after the July move. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 4.72 million ADS | Volume stepped up around the July 27 results. Watch whether a move back toward $16.61 comes with volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR $0.44, about 2.80% | Historic volatility near 36% over 14 days. Earnings, currency, regulation, spectrum, competition, and integration news can move the ADS sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $14.15, then $13.75 | A sustained break below the 200-day near $14.15 weakens the setup. Reassess against cash flow, leverage, and operating evidence instead of treating these as fixed stops. |
VOD AI trading strategy
The VOD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It pairs chart levels with organic service revenue, adjusted EBITDAaL, adjusted free cash flow, capital intensity, net debt, dividend coverage, buybacks, German customer trends, UK integration, and currency movements.
Watch for VOD to reclaim the $16.00 to $16.61 area with volume after holding the $14.75 to $15.00 support zone, supported by operating updates that show adjusted free cash flow and deleveraging on track.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below the 200-day near $14.15 reduces trend confidence, especially if German revenue, UK integration, leverage, or cash flow commentary deteriorates.
If VOD retests $13.75 to $14.25 without a structural deterioration in cash flow or leverage, compare the lower price with conservative assumptions for capital spending, interest, currency, integration, and dividend policy.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if it follows a free cash flow miss, a dividend reset, rising funding needs, or adverse regulatory and competitive change.
Track organic service revenue, adjusted EBITDAaL, adjusted free cash flow, capex intensity, net debt and leverage, German and UK trends, Safaricom and Africa growth, digital services, dividends, buybacks, and foreign exchange.
Position sizing should reflect that VOD is a leveraged multinational telecom ADR, not a bond substitute or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Vodafone to connect people, homes, enterprises, devices, and financial transactions. The group turns spectrum, networks, distribution, software, and local operating scale into recurring service revenue across Europe and Africa.
Vodafone has regulated spectrum, network infrastructure, local brands, large customer bases, enterprise contracts, a global IoT platform, and African mobile money. The moat is real but tempered by high capital needs, local challengers, and regulation.
The thesis fails if German revenue and margin pressure persist, UK integration consumes more cash than the EUR 700 million synergy plan, interest or spectrum costs rise, capex cannot fall, competition intensifies, currency weakens, regulation restricts returns, or the statutory loss signals deeper impairment.
Management has simplified the portfolio through disposals, completed the Three UK merger and the Safaricom stake, resumed the dividend, and guided to the upper end of FY27 cash flow. The durable test is whether these moves lift organic free cash flow and returns without pushing risk onto the balance sheet.
Demand for data, cloud connectivity, IoT, digital financial services, and AI enabled network capacity supports telecom relevance. The industry still faces capital intensity, spectrum auctions, competition, and price regulation that can keep returns below the value of the underlying networks.
At $15.78, VOD trades on negative trailing GAAP earnings, so headline PE is not useful. The stock sits about 15% above the tracked analyst consensus of $13.45, and margin of safety depends on free cash flow conversion, disciplined leverage, and evidence that growth is organic rather than only consolidation or currency driven.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VOD ADS quote reference | $15.78 NASDAQ ADS close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $36.53 billion reported, and $36.44 billion calculated from $15.78 x about 2.309 billion ADS-equivalent shares, a 0.26% variance | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| ADS share count context | StockAnalysis.com lists 23.09 billion ordinary shares. Each VOD ADS represents 10 ordinary shares, so the market cap check uses about 2.309 billion ADS equivalents. | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Vodafone shareholder FAQs | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY27 trading update | Group service revenue up 5.2% organic and 9.8% reported, organic adjusted EBITDAaL up 6.2%, Germany service revenue +1.2%, UK +0.6%, Vodacom +12.6%, Egypt +32.9%, Vodafone Business +5.0%, digital services +18.8%, financial services +27.1% | Vodafone Q1 FY27 Trading Update | July 27, 2026 |
| Q1 FY27 revenue | EUR 10.294 billion revenue in Q1 FY27, versus EUR 9.385 billion a year earlier | RTTNews via FinanzNachrichten | July 27, 2026 |
| FY27 guidance | Adjusted EBITDAaL of EUR 13.0 to 13.3 billion including nine months of Safaricom consolidation, versus a prior EUR 11.9 to 12.2 billion; adjusted free cash flow of EUR 2.6 to 2.9 billion; Europe adjusted EBITDAaL of EUR 7.6 to 7.9 billion; restructuring and integration costs peaking near EUR 0.7 billion | Vodafone Q1 FY27 Trading Update | July 27, 2026 |
| Safaricom consolidation | Safaricom transaction closed on June 30, 2026, contributing about EUR 1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDAaL over the remaining nine months of FY27 | Vodafone Q1 FY27 Trading Update presentation | July 27, 2026 |
| FY26 results | EUR 40.5 billion total revenue, EUR 11.4 billion adjusted EBITDAaL, EUR 2.6 billion adjusted free cash flow, and a EUR 397 million statutory loss for the year ended March 31, 2026 | Vodafone FY26 Preliminary Results | May 12, 2026 |
| FY26 revenue cross-check | EUR 40.461 billion on StockAnalysis.com, matching the Vodafone FY26 preliminary results within 0.1% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Third-party TTM cross-check | $46.65 billion revenue, -$457.74 million net income, $16.81 billion cash, $62.78 billion total debt, and $10.87 billion free cash flow. Currency and reporting period differences should not be blended without conversion. | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward PE 12.91, price to book 0.58, price to cash flow 3.36, EV/EBITDA 4.97, EV/FCF 8.08, and dividend yield 3.18% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend policy | Vodafone resumed dividend growth for the first time since 2018, recommending a total FY26 dividend of EUR 0.046 per ordinary share, and completed about EUR 4 billion in buybacks over two years | MarketBeat AGM coverage | July 27, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Sell across 4 tracked analysts with an average target of $13.45, low $11.30, median $12.77, and high $16.98. Price targets were last updated on February 16, 2026. | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | New Street upgraded VOD to Buy on July 10, 2026 without a target; Morgan Stanley raised its target to 115 GBp from 105 GBp with an Equal Weight rating; Goldman Sachs maintains Sell at $10 to $12 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks via TheFly | August 2, 2026 |
| Largest shareholder change | Xavier Niel agreed to buy the 16.2% stake held by UAE telecom group e& for about GBP 4.4 billion, becoming the largest shareholder, and e& terminated its relationship agreement with Vodafone | This is Money and MarketBeat AGM coverage | July 27, 2026 |
| Technical data | 5-day moving average $16.05, 20-day $15.07, 50-day $14.76, 100-day $15.00, 200-day $14.15, 14 day RSI 58.05, 14 day ADX 29.66, 20 day average volume about 4.72 million ADS, and 52 week range $10.66 to $16.61 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 9.03 million shares short, 0.39% of shares outstanding, about 2.03 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap history | $36.53 billion on July 31, 2026, up 25.15% over one year, versus $32.38 billion at the end of 2025 and $24.47 billion at the end of 2024 | StockAnalysis.com market cap history | August 2, 2026 |
This VOD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell VOD stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, cash flow, debt, competition, spectrum, regulatory, currency, integration, or market information changes.
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