Vodafone Group Plc research snapshot
VOD AI stock analysis currently reads Vodafone Group Plc as a large European and African connectivity operator with mobile, fixed broadband, business, IoT, cloud, security, and financial-services exposure. At the July 10, 2026 data cutoff, VOD closed at $13.08 per NASDAQ ADS on July 9, with a reported market capitalization of $30.16 billion. The AI score recognizes FY26 service-revenue and adjusted EBITDAaL growth, but the VOD AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because Germany, VodafoneThree integration, capital intensity, debt, currency, competition, and statutory earnings can change the outcome. This page is an informational research tool and not investment advice.
Current price
$13.08 NASDAQ ADS close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$30.16 billion reported market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Diversified telecom operator with improving service growth and capital returns, offset by leverage, German execution, and a GAAP loss
Trend status
Weak to neutral at the July 9 close, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vodafone sells mobile, fixed connectivity, broadband, digital business services, IoT, cloud, security, and financial services across Europe and Africa. | High |
| Moat | Spectrum, networks, local brands, customer relationships, enterprise integrations, shared operations, and a global IoT platform create scale advantages, but competition and regulation limit pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Margherita Della Valle has simplified the portfolio and returned capital. The test is whether customer experience, Germany, UK integration, and cost actions translate into durable cash returns. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY26 total revenue was €40.5 billion, adjusted EBITDAaL was €11.4 billion, and adjusted free cash flow was €2.6 billion. Statutory earnings remained less dependable than operating cash metrics. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 9 ADS close of $13.08, financial_rigor.py gives negative TTM PE on a $0.02 loss per ADS, 5.17x book value, 27.83x TTM free cash flow per ADS, and a 3.90% indicated dividend yield using stated inputs. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 9 close was below the 50-day average near $14.76 and the 200-day average near $13.84. RSI near 60.50 was constructive but did not confirm a close above trend resistance. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because leverage, interest costs, German competition, UK integration, spectrum and network spending, regulation, foreign exchange, and GAAP earnings volatility can affect equity value. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported results and market statistics are well documented. The main uncertainty is not data availability but the durability of cash generation after investment, integration, and financing needs. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | A stronger case requires proof that FY27 cash flow rises while net debt remains in the lower half of the target leverage range and Germany returns to stable profitable growth. | Medium-low |
VOD AI stock forecast
The VOD AI stock forecast uses ranges rather than a fixed target because regulated telecom outcomes depend on service revenue, margin, capital intensity, currency, debt, interest, competition, and integration. A three-year mechanical model uses $0.47 of TTM free cash flow per ADS as an earnings proxy, not GAAP EPS, and produces about $16.50 in a bullish case, $10.90 in a base case, and $6.00 in a bearish case. These are auditable scenario outputs, not price promises.
$16 to $19 per ADS
More likely if Germany stabilizes, VodafoneThree synergies and customer gains emerge, Africa and business services sustain growth, adjusted free cash flow expands, leverage stays controlled, and the market accepts a higher cash-flow multiple.
$10 to $14 per ADS
More likely if service growth and efficiencies broadly meet guidance, capital intensity stays near plan, the dividend remains progressive, and investors continue to discount execution and financing risk.
$6 to $9 per ADS
More likely if German pricing and customer trends deteriorate, UK integration costs rise, competition or regulation compresses margins, interest and spectrum needs absorb cash, or free cash flow misses expectations.
VOD AI technical analysis
VOD AI technical analysis was weak to neutral at the July 9, 2026 close. StockAnalysis listed a $13.08 close, a 50-day moving average of $14.76, a 200-day moving average of $13.84, RSI of 60.50, and 20-day average volume of about 3.60 million ADSs. Technical levels are dated market references, not certainty about the next move.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.08 per ADS | StockAnalysis listed this NASDAQ ADS close for July 9, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $12.75 to $13.10 | This is the nearby area around the July 9 close. A support hold should be confirmed with volume and updated company data. |
| Deeper support | $11.75 to $12.25 | A sustained break into this zone would weaken a mean-reversion thesis and should trigger a review of fundamentals. |
| Near resistance | $13.75 to $14.00 | The 200-day moving average near $13.84 is the first longer-term trend level to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $14.50 to $15.00 | The 50-day moving average near $14.76 is the next trend test. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $14.76, 200-day $13.84 | The July 9 close below both averages leaves the setup weak to neutral. |
| Momentum | RSI 60.50 | Momentum was constructive, but RSI alone does not establish a breakout or a durable trend. |
| Volume | 20-day average 3.60 million ADSs | Watch volume with FY27 guidance, German and UK updates, buyback news, debt data, and dividend announcements. |
| Volatility | Monitor interim results and FY27 guidance | Earnings, currency, regulation, spectrum decisions, competition, and integration disclosures can move the ADS sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $12.75, then $11.75 | A sustained breach weakens the technical setup. Reassess against cash flow, leverage, and operating evidence instead of treating these as fixed stops. |
VOD AI trading strategy
The VOD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It pairs chart levels with service revenue, adjusted EBITDAaL, adjusted free cash flow, capital intensity, net debt, dividend coverage, buybacks, German customer trends, VodafoneThree integration, and currency movements.
Watch for VOD to hold $12.75 to $13.10, reclaim the $13.75 to $14.00 200-day zone, and then clear $14.50 to $15.00 with volume and operating updates that support free-cash-flow growth.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $12.75 reduces trend confidence, especially if Germany, UK integration, leverage, or cash-flow commentary deteriorates.
If VOD retests $11.75 to $12.25 without a structural deterioration in cash flow or leverage, compare the lower price with conservative assumptions for capital spending, interest, currency, and shareholder distributions.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if it follows a free-cash-flow miss, margin compression, higher funding needs, a dividend reset, or adverse regulatory and competitive change.
Track service revenue, adjusted EBITDAaL, adjusted free cash flow, capex, net debt and leverage, German turnaround data, VodafoneThree costs and synergies, Africa growth, digital-services growth, dividends, buybacks, and foreign exchange.
Position sizing should reflect that VOD is a leveraged multinational telecom equity, not a bond substitute or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Vodafone to connect people, homes, enterprises, devices, and financial transactions. The group turns spectrum, networks, distribution, software, enterprise relationships, and local operating scale into recurring service revenue.
Vodafone has regulated spectrum positions, network infrastructure, local brands, large customer bases, enterprise contracts, a global IoT platform, shared operations, and African financial-services exposure. The moat is real but tempered by high capital needs, local challengers, wholesale access, and regulation.
The thesis fails if German revenue and margin pressure persist, VodafoneThree integration consumes more cash than expected, interest or spectrum costs rise, capex cannot fall, competition intensifies, currency weakens, regulation restricts returns, or the statutory loss signals deeper economic impairment.
Management has simplified the portfolio through disposals and returned capital through dividends and buybacks. The durable test is whether these moves improve customer experience, returns on capital, and free cash flow without shifting excessive risk to the balance sheet.
Demand for data, cloud connectivity, cybersecurity, IoT, digital financial services, and AI-enabled network capacity supports telecom relevance. The industry still faces capital intensity, spectrum auctions, competition, and price regulation that can keep returns below the value of the underlying networks.
At $13.08, VOD trades on negative trailing GAAP earnings, so headline PE is not useful. Margin of safety depends on free-cash-flow conversion after capital spending and financing costs, disciplined leverage, and evidence that operating improvements are durable rather than only portfolio or currency effects.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VOD ADS quote reference | $13.08 NASDAQ ADS close on July 9, 2026 | StockAnalysis VOD market-cap history | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $30.16 billion reported and $30.20 billion calculated from $13.08 x 2.309 billion ADS-equivalent shares, a 0.14% variance | StockAnalysis VOD statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| ADS share-count context | StockAnalysis lists 23.09 billion ordinary shares. Each VOD ADS represents 10 ordinary shares, so the market-cap check uses 2.309 billion ADS equivalents. | Vodafone shareholder FAQs and StockAnalysis VOD statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| FY26 revenue and adjusted EBITDAaL | €40.5 billion total revenue and €11.4 billion adjusted EBITDAaL, compared with €37.4 billion and €10.9 billion in FY25 | Vodafone FY26 Results Presentation | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash flow and net debt | €2.621 billion adjusted free cash flow, €1.795 billion free cash flow, €8.913 billion cash and cash equivalents, and €22.397 billion net debt at March 31, 2026 | Vodafone FY26 Preliminary Results | July 10, 2026 |
| Third-party TTM cross-check | $46.65 billion revenue, -$457.74 million net income, $16.81 billion cash, $62.78 billion total debt, and $10.76 billion free cash flow. Currency and reporting-period differences should not be blended without conversion. | StockAnalysis VOD statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation inputs | TTM loss per ADS -$0.02, book value per share $2.53, free cash flow per share $0.47, annual dividend $0.51, and exact arithmetic outputs of negative 654.00x PE, 5.17x PB, 27.83x P/FCF, and 3.90% dividend yield | StockAnalysis VOD statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $14.76, 200-day moving average $13.84, RSI 60.50, 20-day average volume 3.60 million ADSs, and 52-week price change +36.12% | StockAnalysis VOD statistics | July 10, 2026 |
This VOD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell VOD stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 10, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, cash-flow, debt, competition, spectrum, regulatory, currency, integration, or market information changes.
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