Vontier Corporation research snapshot
VNT AI stock analysis currently reads Vontier Corporation as a mid-cap industrial technology company with leading brands in fuel dispensing, convenience retail technology, vehicle repair tools, and environmental monitoring. Vontier was spun off from Fortive in 2020 and operates through Mobility Technologies, Repair Solutions, and Environmental and Fueling Solutions segments. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, VNT traded near $28.52 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $4.02 billion. The stock sits near its 52-week low of $27.25 after declining from a $48.20 high, reflecting end-market softness in retail fueling, commercial vehicle repair, and fleet telematics, along with the recently completed Teletrac Navman divestiture. This page uses scenario ranges, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$28.52
Market cap
$4.02 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Mid-cap industrial technology with durable aftermarket exposure, cyclical end-markets, and meaningful debt
Trend status
Near 52-week lows, valuation compressed, turnaround execution critical
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vontier earns recurring aftermarket revenue from fuel dispensers, convenience store technology, EV charging software, vehicle repair tools, and environmental monitoring. The aftermarket base provides some revenue resilience, but new equipment is cyclical. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed-base aftermarket services, Gilbarco and Veeder-Root brand positions in retail fueling, Matco Tools franchise network, and regulatory-driven environmental compliance requirements. Switching costs are moderate for aftermarket consumables, lower for new equipment. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO Mark Morelli has emphasized streamlining the portfolio through the Teletrac Navman divestiture and focusing on core mobility technology platforms. The key test is whether operating margins can expand in a challenging end-market environment while managing debt reduction. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $3.2 billion with adjusted operating margins near 17-18%. Q1 FY2026 revenue was $750.6 million with net income of $113.6 million. Profit margin was 13.37% TTM. The Teletrac Navman sale will reduce revenue but improve margin mix. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $28.52 and $2.83 TTM EPS, VNT traded at 10.08x earnings, 3.20x book value, and a 7.26% free cash flow yield. The forward P/E of 8.42x and EV/EBITDA of 8.18x suggest the market is pricing in continued end-market pressure. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 12 snapshot showed VNT near $28.52, close to its 52-week low of $27.25, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages likely above the current price, indicating a downtrend. Beta of 1.16 adds leverage to any market or sector move. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are retail fueling and convenience store capex cycles, commercial vehicle repair demand, EV transition disrupting traditional fueling, high debt-to-equity of 153%, successful Teletrac Navman divestiture execution, and customer concentration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and calculation checks. Lower for exact price outcomes because end-market demand, interest rates, portfolio restructuring outcomes, and valuation multiples can shift quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. Vontier looks reasonably valued on current earnings but faces a challenging operating environment, high leverage, and meaningful end-market uncertainty. A buy decision depends on confidence in end-market recovery timing and management execution. | Low |
VNT AI stock forecast
The VNT AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $28.52 quote, $2.83 TTM EPS, and current valuation. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $21.60, a base area near $39.20, and a bullish area near $55.70. These are planning scenarios, not price promises.
$50 to $62
More likely if retail fueling and convenience store capex recover, the Teletrac Navman divestiture simplifies the portfolio and strengthens the balance sheet, EV charging infrastructure investment accelerates, and the market re-rates VNT closer to 14x earnings on improved margins.
$35 to $43
More likely if EPS compounds near 8% annually, aftermarket revenue remains stable, the company gradually reduces debt, and the market pays about 11x earnings reflecting a steady but unspectacular industrial technology profile.
$18 to $25
More likely if retail fueling capex stays depressed, commercial vehicle repair demand weakens further, debt servicing costs rise with interest rates, or the company faces execution issues with the divestiture and portfolio transition, compressing the multiple toward 7x earnings.
VNT AI technical analysis
VNT AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Yahoo Finance listed a $28.52 real-time quote with a 52-week range of $27.25 to $48.20, beta of 1.16, and average volume near 1.83 million shares. The stock is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $28.52 | Yahoo Finance real-time quote as of July 8, 2026 close, near the lower end of the 52-week range, used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $27.25 | The 52-week low is the immediate support level. A break below this level could open a move toward the $25 area last seen during broader market sell-offs. |
| Near resistance | $33 to $35 | The first resistance zone sits in the low-to-mid $30s where the stock traded before the 2026 decline. A recovery above this zone would need volume confirmation. |
| 52-week moving average context | Price below both likely moving averages | With the stock near its 52-week low, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are likely well above the current price, indicating a sustained downtrend. |
| Momentum | Negative momentum near oversold | The stock has declined about 40% from its 52-week high of $48.20. Momentum is likely negative but may be approaching oversold conditions that sometimes precede mean-reverting bounces. |
| Volume | About 1.83 million average daily shares | Average volume of 1.83 million shares provides adequate liquidity for mid-cap monitoring frameworks. Watch for volume spikes around earnings and divestiture news. |
| Volatility | Mid-beta profile near 1.16 | Beta of 1.16 suggests VNT amplifies market moves moderately. Realized volatility can rise around earnings, end-market data, portfolio restructuring announcements, or debt-related headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $27.25 or sustained recovery above $35 | A close below the 52-week low of $27.25 would confirm the downtrend. A sustained move above $35 with volume would be the first sign of trend reversal. |
VNT AI trading strategy
The VNT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a mid-cap industrial technology company with cyclical end-markets. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, earnings dates, and risk controls.
In a confirmed downtrend near 52-week lows, the trend-following approach favors waiting for the stock to establish a base above the $33 to $35 resistance zone with improving volume before considering a long position.
Buying into a downtrend without confirmation risks catching a falling knife. Wait for higher lows and a break above resistance with volume before committing capital.
If VNT approaches or tests the $27.25 52-week low without new fundamental deterioration, a mean-reversion approach may consider the risk-reward. Pair this with an assessment of end-market data, debt metrics, and divestiture progress.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because value traps in cyclical industrial names can persist. A stop near $25 or below the 52-week low is reasonable for this approach.
Track quarterly revenue and margin trends across Mobility Technologies, Repair Solutions, and Environmental and Fueling Solutions. Monitor debt reduction progress after the Teletrac Navman sale, end-market indicators for retail fueling and commercial vehicle repair, and EV charging infrastructure investment trends.
Reduce confidence if revenue continues declining, margins compress further, debt reduction stalls, or the company signals additional portfolio complexity. Watch for insider buying as a potential signal of management confidence.
Investment research summary
Vontier sells and services fuel dispensing equipment, convenience store technology, EV charging software, vehicle repair tools, and environmental monitoring systems. The aftermarket parts and service business provides recurring revenue, while new equipment sales depend on end-market capex cycles.
The moat is moderate and comes from installed-base switching costs in retail fueling (Gilbarco, Veeder-Root), the Matco Tools franchise distribution network, and regulatory compliance requirements for environmental monitoring. It narrows if EV charging reduces traditional fueling infrastructure investment or if private-label alternatives gain share.
The thesis fails if retail fueling and convenience store capex stays structurally lower due to EV adoption, the Teletrac Navman sale proceeds do not materially improve the balance sheet, debt servicing costs squeeze margins, or management execution on the streamlined portfolio disappoints.
Mark Morelli has led Vontier since the spin-off, emphasizing portfolio rationalization, margin improvement, and technology modernization. The recently completed Teletrac Navman divestiture and the focus on core mobility platforms suggest strategic clarity, but execution in a challenging end-market remains the key test.
The mobility technology industry is being reshaped by EV adoption, convenience retail digitization, and environmental regulation. These trends create both opportunities (EV charging infrastructure, digital payment, environmental compliance) and risks (reduced traditional fueling investment, commercial vehicle electrification timelines).
VNT is priced as a cyclical industrial value stock at 10x earnings with a 7.26% FCF yield. Margin of safety depends on whether current earnings trough or normalize, the pace of debt reduction, and whether the market maintains or compresses the current modest valuation multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VNT price | $28.52 real-time quote on July 8, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.02 billion, verified as $28.52 x 140.8 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.09 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $412.5 million, profit margin 13.37% | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 revenue and net income | $750.6 million revenue, $113.6 million net income | Yahoo Finance earnings trends | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $233.8 million cash, debt-to-equity 153.15%, enterprise value $5.73 billion | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 10.08x P/E, 8.42x forward P/E, 3.20x P/B, 13.78x P/FCF, 7.26% FCF yield, 1.35x P/S, 8.18x EV/EBITDA, 0.85x PEG by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.10 annual dividend, 0.35% yield | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $27.25 to $48.20, beta 1.16, average volume 1.83 million shares | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average target $40.30, range $35 to $48, Citigroup Buy rating maintained | Yahoo Finance analyst insights | July 12, 2026 |
This VNT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if Vontier fundamentals, end-market demand for fueling and repair equipment, EV transition, interest rates, debt refinancing, divestiture outcomes, or market valuation change.
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