Valmont Industries, Inc. research snapshot
VMI AI stock analysis now reads Valmont Industries as a quality infrastructure and agriculture manufacturer whose utility tailwind is showing up in reported results, even as the stock has corrected sharply from its June peak. As of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, VMI closed at $481.70 on July 31 with about a $9.30 billion market cap. Q2 2026 delivered net sales of $1.119 billion, up 6.5%, adjusted EPS of $6.14, up 25.8%, and management raised full year 2026 guidance to diluted EPS of $22.25 to $23.50 on $4.30 billion to $4.45 billion of sales. The stock still fell roughly 18% from the June Investor Day high near $585.71 because investors weighed steel and diesel cost inflation, a softer Telecom business, and the valuation after a large run. At $481.70 the forward PE is near 21x on the raised guidance midpoint, more reasonable than the roughly 30x trailing multiple carried in July, so the VMI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around this lower entry rather than a single target price. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$481.70 (July 31, 2026 close)
Market cap
$9.30 billion verified market cap
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Quality infrastructure manufacturer with a confirmed multi-year utility cycle, raised 2026 guidance, and a forward multiple near 21x after an 18% correction from the June peak; Agriculture stays soft and steel cost inflation tests H2 margins
Trend status
Intermediate pullback inside a larger uptrend: price broke below the 50-day average near $533 in July, tested the 200-day average near $458 on July 29, and is now recovering with RSI near 38
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Valmont designs and manufactures utility structures, lighting and transportation poles, telecom and solar structures, coatings services, and center-pivot irrigation systems that customers buy for grid reliability and farm productivity. | High |
| Moat | Engineering expertise, project delivery scale, coatings capacity, Valley irrigation brand recognition, and utility customer relationships create moderate switching friction, but steel fabrication remains competitive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Avner Applbaum has led since July 2023 after serving as CFO. John Schwietz became CFO in April 2026, and the board announced in late July that Catherine Paglia will succeed Mogens Bay as chair at the end of 2026. Q2 capital returns of $75 million and about $451 million of buyback authorization left show active allocation. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $4.10 billion with adjusted EPS near $19.09. Q2 2026 net sales rose 6.5% to $1.119 billion, adjusted EPS rose 25.8% to $6.14, and operating margin expanded to 14.8%, prompting a raise to $22.25 to $23.50 of full year EPS guidance. | High |
| Valuation | At $481.70, the trailing PE near 18.75x is flattered by a Q4 2025 tax benefit and a Q2 2025 one-time charge, so the cleaner read is about 21x forward EPS on the $22.25 to $23.50 guidance range. PB is near 5.5x, P/FCF near 28.9x, and the dividend yield is 0.64%. | High |
| Technical trend | VMI broke below the 50-day average near $533 in July, tested the 200-day average near $458 on July 29, and rebounded to $481.70 with RSI near 38. The intermediate uptrend is under pressure but not yet broken. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are steel and diesel cost inflation, H2 margin compression, Agriculture weakness, Middle East project delays, Telecom softness, and slower-than-expected conversion of the raised guidance into 2027 growth. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings, the Q2 earnings call, and multi-source market data are dense. Return confidence is moderate because the utility story is well known and the Q2 report triggered a selloff despite a beat. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VMI looks like a high-quality industrial operator with a real multi-year utility cycle, and the correction has improved the entry math, but the forward multiple still needs continued backlog conversion and margin execution to be justified. | Medium |
VMI AI stock forecast
The VMI AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Valmont earnings depend on utility structure demand, Agriculture volumes and pricing, steel costs, capacity utilization, free cash flow conversion, buybacks, and the market multiple. Using the $481.70 price reference, the raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint near $22.90, and a three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $386 in a bear case, $640 in a base case, and $871 in a bullish case before dividends. Because the 2029 Investor Day path targets roughly $35 of EPS, the page treats these as bands rather than promises, and the analyst consensus average target of $624.50 sits inside the base band.
$820 to $950 before dividends
More likely if North America Utility growth stays strong, pricing continues to outrun steel and diesel inflation, backlog converts cleanly into 2027, Agriculture stabilizes, free cash flow funds buybacks, and the market keeps a mid-20s earnings multiple on the path toward the 2029 EPS target.
$580 to $680 before dividends
More likely if 2026 adjusted EPS lands inside the raised $22.25 to $23.50 range, Infrastructure grows while Agriculture stays soft, pricing broadly offsets input costs, and the market values VMI near 20x to 22x forward earnings, roughly in line with the current analyst consensus target.
$360 to $430 before dividends
More likely if steel or labor costs compress margins faster than pricing, utility growth moderates after the first half, Telecom keeps dragging, Agriculture weakens further, free cash flow fades, or investors reprice VMI toward a mid-teens multiple as growth normalizes.
VMI AI technical analysis
VMI AI technical analysis flags a real shift in the intermediate trend as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, using July 31 closing data. VMI closed at $481.70 after a 52-week range of $353.41 to $585.71. Calculated from daily closes, the 50-day average is near $533.16 and the 200-day average is near $458.61, with a 14-day RSI near 37.7. The stock broke below the 50-day average in mid-July, fell through the July 21 earnings day even after a strong report, and on July 29 undercut the 200-day average intraday near $455 before rebounding over the final two sessions of July.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $481.70 July 31, 2026 close | Cross-checked with StockAnalysis quote and history data and the price-history table. |
| Immediate support | $455 to $465 | This band brackets the 200-day moving average near $458.61 and the July 29 intraday low near $455.10, making it the key trend test. |
| Secondary support | $430 to $445 | A round-number shelf below the 200-day average that would matter if the July 29 low gives way. |
| Long-term support | $395 to $410 | A deeper zone that would mark a larger correction if the pullback extends beyond the trend averages. |
| Near resistance | $505 to $510 | The July 21 earnings-day close near $505.35 is the first ceiling for any recovery attempt. |
| Upper resistance | $525 to $535 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $533.16 and would confirm a trend repair if reclaimed on volume. |
| Major resistance | $577 to $586 | This zone approaches the June highs and the 52-week high of $585.71 from the Investor Day run. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $533.16, 200-day near $458.61 | The 50-day is now below the price after the July decline, while the 200-day still slopes higher, which is a mixed structure. |
| Momentum | RSI near 37.7 | Momentum is weak after the decline and closer to oversold than to the June overbought zone. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 231,000 shares | Volume was elevated on the July 21 earnings day near 371,000 shares and remained active through the late-July decline. |
| Volatility | Watch Q3 2026 reporting | Steel cost updates, H2 pricing, utility backlog commentary, and any guidance change are the next likely volatility drivers, with Q3 results expected in late October 2026. |
| Invalidation | Close below $455, then a reclaim of $533 | A sustained close below the $455 to $465 band would break the 200-day average and open a deeper correction. A reclaim of $525 to $535 would restore the intermediate uptrend. |
VMI AI trading strategy
The VMI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with utility backlog, steel and diesel costs, Agriculture demand, operating margin, free cash flow, debt, buybacks, and valuation discipline after the post-earnings pullback.
Watch for VMI to reclaim the $505 to $510 area and then the $525 to $535 zone on rising volume, ideally while H2 pricing offsets steel inflation and the raised 2026 EPS range stays intact.
A close below $455 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management flags weaker utility bookings, softer pricing, or a step-down in the H2 margin outlook.
If VMI holds the $455 to $465 band near the 200-day average without a permanent loss of utility demand or margin structure, compare the lower price with the $22.25 to $23.50 guidance range, FCF per share, net leverage, and the 2029 target path.
Do not treat every drawdown as attractive if the multiple compresses because steel costs erase operating leverage, growth slows, or Agriculture deteriorates further.
Track North America Utility sales and pricing, Infrastructure backlog, Agriculture volumes, operating margin, steel and diesel input costs, free cash flow, cash, total debt, share count, dividend growth, and progress versus the 2026 EPS range and the 2029 targets.
Position sizing should reflect that VMI is a cyclical industrial compounder candidate, not a defensive utility stock or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Valmont because grid operators, municipalities, telecom builders, and growers need engineered structures, coatings, and irrigation systems that keep power flowing and land productive. The best part of the model today is Infrastructure, led by North America Utility, while Agriculture remains more cyclical and is being managed through a soft market.
The moat comes from engineering know-how, multi-plant fabrication capacity, coatings services, established utility relationships, and the Valley irrigation franchise. It is stronger than a pure commodity fabricator, but not as wide as a software or network platform business.
The thesis fails if the utility boom is delayed or overbuilt in the stock price, steel costs outrun pricing in H2, Agriculture stays weak longer than expected, free cash flow falls, or management cannot convert Investor Day ambition into cash earnings and the stated 2029 EPS path.
Avner Applbaum became CEO in July 2023 after a CFO tenure that began in 2020. John Schwietz became CFO in April 2026, and Catherine Paglia is set to succeed Mogens Bay as chair at the end of 2026. Q2 buybacks of $60 million, dividends of $15 million, and a remaining authorization near $451 million make capital allocation and target delivery the management tests for the next three years.
Grid hardening, transmission expansion, data-center power demand, telecom densification, and water-efficient irrigation sit inside long multi-year infrastructure and food-security needs. Those trends support Valmont, but they do not remove steel-cycle or farm-income cyclicality, as the Q2 Telecom and Agriculture results show.
The valuation is more balanced after the pullback. At $481.70 the forward PE is near 21x on the raised guidance, below the roughly 25x to 27x the stock has carried historically, but the three-scenario model still shows a much lower bear case if growth and the multiple both compress. Margin of safety depends on either better execution on the 2026 and 2029 paths or an even lower entry price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $481.70 July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis VMI overview and history | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap | $9.30 billion, verified at $9.30 billion using price times 19.30M shares (0.03% variance) | StockAnalysis market cap and financial_rigor verify-market-cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 19.30 million shares outstanding, down 2.23% year over year | StockAnalysis VMI statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | $4.23 billion revenue TTM and $25.69 TTM EPS, flattered by a Q4 2025 tax benefit and the removal of a Q2 2025 one-time charge | StockAnalysis VMI overview and income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and adjusted EPS | $4.104 billion revenue and adjusted EPS near $19.09, with GAAP net income around $335 million to $350 million | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends, cross-validated within 0.1% | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1.029 billion net sales (+6.2%), $155.6 million operating income (15.1% margin), $5.51 diluted EPS (+27.5%) | Valmont Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis quarterly data | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | $1.119 billion net sales (+6.5%), $166.1 million operating income (14.8% margin), $6.14 adjusted EPS (+25.8%) | Valmont Q2 2026 press release and earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment detail | Infrastructure sales $879 million (+14.8%) with North America Utility +33.9%, Coatings +16.6%, Telecom -26.1%, and International +7.4%; Agriculture sales $244 million (-15.8%) with North America -2.3% and International -28.9% | Valmont Q2 2026 earnings call and segment commentary | July 21, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | Net sales $4.30 billion to $4.45 billion and diluted EPS $22.25 to $23.50 after the Q2 raise | Valmont Q2 2026 guidance raise | July 21, 2026 |
| 2029 Investor Day targets | About $5.4 billion net sales, 17% operating margin, and $35 EPS by 2029, with ROIC of 21% | Valmont Investor Day 2026 materials and Q2 2026 call framework | July 21, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $139 million cash and roughly $872 million to $880 million total debt, with net debt near $733 million to $740 million and leverage close to one times | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Q2 2026 earnings call commentary | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $322.10 million free cash flow and about $16.68 FCF per share | StockAnalysis VMI statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.08 annualized dividend, 0.64% yield, $0.77 quarterly rate, ex-dividend date September 25, 2026 | StockAnalysis VMI dividend page and Valmont dividend release | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | $60 million of share repurchases and $15 million of dividends in Q2 2026, with about $451 million remaining under the repurchase authorization | Valmont Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | PE 18.75x TTM (flattered), forward PE near 21x on the $22.875 guidance midpoint, PB 5.49x, P/FCF 28.88x, FCF yield 3.46%, dividend yield 0.64% | financial_rigor verify-valuation using $481.70, $25.69 EPS, $87.70 BVPS, $16.68 FCF/share, $3.08 dividend | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst view | Consensus Buy with an average price target of $624.50; targets from Oppenheimer at $600 to Stifel at $678, with JPMorgan at $620 | StockAnalysis VMI forecast and TipRanks coverage | July 22, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day average about $533.16, 200-day average about $458.61, RSI about 37.7, 52-week range $353.41 to $585.71 | StockAnalysis VMI statistics and history | August 2, 2026 |
| Input cost context | Steel prices up about 27% to 30% year to date and diesel up about 45%, per the Q2 2026 earnings call | Valmont Q2 2026 earnings call Q&A | July 21, 2026 |
| Next earnings | Q3 2026 results estimated for late October 2026 | StockAnalysis earnings calendar | August 2, 2026 |
This VMI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, utility project timing, Agriculture demand, steel costs, free cash flow, capital allocation, or market multiples change.
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