Valmont Industries, Inc. research snapshot
VMI AI stock analysis currently reads Valmont Industries as a durable infrastructure and agriculture manufacturer whose near-term earnings story is led by North America Utility structures, grid modernization, and operating leverage, while Agriculture remains cyclically softer. As of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, VMI closed at $546.83 on July 10 with about a $10.62 billion market cap, roughly 30.4x TTM EPS of $17.97, and forward earnings still elevated after a strong re-rating. The VMI AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges rather than a single target price, and it treats utility backlog conversion, Agriculture recovery, steel and labor costs, free cash flow, buybacks, and multiple durability as the main variables.
Current price
$546.83 (July 10, 2026 close)
Market cap
$10.62 billion verified market cap
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Quality infrastructure manufacturer with a multi-year utility tailwind, soft agriculture demand, and a full valuation after a large 2026 re-rating
Trend status
Primary uptrend intact above the 50-day and 200-day averages, consolidating below the 52-week high after the June 2026 Investor Day move
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Valmont designs and manufactures utility structures, lighting and transportation poles, telecom and solar structures, coatings services, and center-pivot irrigation systems that customers buy for grid reliability and farm productivity. | High |
| Moat | Engineering expertise, project delivery scale, coatings capacity, Valley irrigation brand recognition, and utility customer relationships create moderate switching friction, but steel fabrication remains competitive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Avner Applbaum has led since July 2023 after serving as CFO. John Schwietz became CFO in April 2026. Capital returns, capacity adds, and 2029 targets show active allocation, but key-person and execution risk remain normal for industrials. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were about $4.10 billion with $335 million of net income. Q1 2026 sales rose 6.2% to $1.03 billion, diluted EPS rose 27.5% to $5.51, and operating margin expanded to 15.1%. | High |
| Valuation | At $546.83, audited math shows about 30.4x TTM EPS, roughly 4.8x book using a 4.81 PB reference, about 30.7x FCF per share, and a 0.56% dividend yield. Margin of safety is limited. | High |
| Technical trend | VMI remains in a primary uptrend above the 50-day average near $534 and the 200-day average near $450, with RSI near 42 and price below the $585.71 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are multiple compression, Agriculture weakness, steel and labor inflation, utility project delays, solar softness, leverage around $928 million of total debt, and missing 2026 or 2029 EPS paths. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and multi-source market data are dense. Return confidence is lower because much of the utility story may already be in the price. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VMI looks like a high-quality industrial operator with a real multi-year utility cycle, but the current price needs continued backlog conversion and margin expansion to justify a low-30s trailing multiple. | Medium |
VMI AI stock forecast
The VMI AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Valmont earnings depend on utility structure demand, Agriculture volumes and pricing, steel costs, capacity utilization, free cash flow conversion, buybacks, and the market multiple. Using the $546.83 price reference, TTM EPS of $17.97, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $252 in a bear case, $526 in a base case, and $827 in a bullish case before dividends. A second model that starts from 2026 midpoint-style EPS near $22.50 produces about $270, $567, and $890, so this page treats forecast ranges as bands rather than promises.
$780 to $900 before dividends
More likely if North America Utility growth stays strong, backlog converts cleanly into 2027 and beyond, operating margins climb toward the long-term target path, Agriculture stabilizes, free cash flow funds buybacks, and the market sustains a mid-20s or higher earnings multiple on rising EPS.
$500 to $600 before dividends
More likely if 2026 diluted EPS lands near the $21.50 to $23.50 company range, Infrastructure grows while Agriculture stays soft, margins expand modestly, and the market values VMI closer to a low-20s multiple as growth normalizes.
$240 to $300 before dividends
More likely if utility project timing slips, Agriculture weakens further, steel or labor costs compress margins, free cash flow fades, or investors reprice VMI from a growth-industrial multiple toward a mid-teens trough multiple.
VMI AI technical analysis
VMI AI technical analysis is constructive on the intermediate trend as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, using July 10 closing data. VMI closed at $546.83 with a 52-week range of $326.22 to $585.71. Calculated from Yahoo daily closes, the 50-day average is near $534.25 and the 200-day average is near $449.88, with a 14-day RSI near 41.5. Price is consolidating after the June Investor Day spike rather than breaking the larger uptrend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $546.83 July 10, 2026 close | Cross-checked with StockAnalysis, Yahoo chart meta, and Nasdaq quote data. |
| Immediate support | $530 to $535 | This band brackets the 50-day moving average near $534.25 and recent post-spike consolidation. |
| Trend support | $500 to $520 | A deeper pullback zone that would still leave the intermediate uptrend intact if volume stays orderly. |
| Long-term support | $440 to $450 | This area brackets the 200-day moving average near $449.88 and would mark a larger trend test. |
| Near resistance | $555 to $565 | Recent recovery highs and the first ceiling after the July consolidation range. |
| Upper resistance | $580 to $586 | This area approaches the 52-week high of $585.71 and the June 2026 Investor Day spike zone. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $534.25, 200-day near $449.88 | Both averages slope higher, which supports a primary uptrend reading as of the July 10 close. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41.5 | Momentum cooled after the June run and is not in an extreme overbought zone. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 240,000 shares | Yahoo and StockAnalysis show relatively thin mid-cap volume, so event days can move price quickly. |
| Volatility | Watch July 21, 2026 earnings | Q2 results, utility backlog commentary, Agriculture demand, and any EPS guidance update are the next likely volatility drivers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $530, then below $450 | A sustained break below the 50-day area weakens the consolidation setup. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger uptrend thesis. |
VMI AI trading strategy
The VMI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with utility backlog, Agriculture demand, operating margin, free cash flow, debt, buybacks, and valuation discipline.
Watch for VMI to hold the $530 to $535 area and reclaim $555 to $565 while Q2 earnings support the raised 2026 EPS range and utility backlog commentary stays firm.
A close below $530 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management cuts the sales or EPS range or flags weaker utility bookings.
If VMI pulls back toward $440 to $450 without a permanent loss of utility demand or margin structure, compare the lower price with normalized EPS, FCF per share, net leverage, and the 2029 target path.
Do not treat every drawdown as attractive if the multiple compresses because growth slows, Agriculture deteriorates, or steel costs erase operating leverage.
Track North America Utility sales and pricing, Infrastructure backlog, Agriculture volumes, operating margin, free cash flow, cash, total debt, share count, dividend growth, and progress versus the 2026 and 2029 EPS targets.
Position sizing should reflect that VMI is a cyclical industrial compounder candidate, not a defensive utility stock or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Valmont because grid operators, municipalities, telecom builders, and growers need engineered structures, coatings, and irrigation systems that keep power flowing and land productive. The best part of the model today is Infrastructure, especially North America Utility, while Agriculture remains more cyclical.
The moat comes from engineering know-how, multi-plant fabrication capacity, coatings services, established utility relationships, and the Valley irrigation franchise. It is stronger than a pure commodity fabricator, but not as wide as a software or network platform business.
The thesis fails if the utility boom is delayed or overbuilt in the stock price, Agriculture stays weak longer than expected, costs outrun pricing, free cash flow falls, or management cannot convert Investor Day ambition into cash earnings.
Avner Applbaum became CEO in July 2023 after a CFO tenure that began in 2020. The April 2026 CFO transition to John Schwietz and the June 2026 Investor Day targets make capital allocation and target delivery the key management tests for the next three years.
Grid hardening, transmission expansion, data-center power demand, telecom densification, and water-efficient irrigation sit inside long multi-year infrastructure and food-security needs. Those trends support Valmont, but they do not remove steel-cycle or farm-income cyclicality.
The valuation leaves limited room for disappointment. The audited three-scenario model shows a base case near the current price and a much lower bear case if growth and the PE both compress, so margin of safety depends on either a better entry price or continued high-teens EPS growth.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $546.83 July 10, 2026 close | StockAnalysis VMI overview and Yahoo chart meta | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap | $10.62 billion, verified at $10.61 billion using price times 19.41M shares (0.06% variance) | StockAnalysis market cap and financial_rigor verify-market-cap | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 19.41 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis VMI statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | $4.16 billion revenue TTM and $17.97 TTM EPS | StockAnalysis VMI overview | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $4.104 billion revenue and about $335 million net income | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis, cross-validated within 0.1% | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1.029 billion net sales (+6.2%), $155.6 million operating income (15.1% margin), $5.51 diluted EPS (+27.5%) | Valmont Q1 2026 results press coverage and IR release summary | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | Net sales $4.2 to $4.4 billion and diluted EPS $21.50 to $23.50 | Valmont Q1 2026 guidance raise and Investor Day materials | July 12, 2026 |
| 2029 Investor Day targets | About $5.4 billion net sales, 17% operating margin, and $35 EPS | Valmont Investor Day 2026 coverage and company outlook summaries | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $160.2 million cash and $928.1 million total debt (MRQ) | Yahoo key statistics and Seeking Alpha capital structure summary | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $345.54 million free cash flow and about $17.80 FCF per share | StockAnalysis VMI statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.08 annualized dividend and about 0.56% yield after the Q1 2026 increase to $0.77 quarterly | StockAnalysis VMI overview and Q1 2026 capital return notes | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | PE 30.43x, PB 4.81x, P/FCF 30.72x, FCF yield 3.26%, dividend yield 0.56% | financial_rigor verify-valuation using $546.83, $17.97 EPS, $113.6 BVPS, $17.80 FCF/share, $3.08 dividend | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day average about $534.25, 200-day average about $449.88, RSI about 41.5, 52-week range $326.22 to $585.71 | Yahoo Finance daily closes calculation and StockAnalysis range | July 12, 2026 |
| Next earnings | Estimated July 21, 2026 second-quarter 2026 report date | StockAnalysis and Nasdaq upcoming events | July 12, 2026 |
This VMI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, utility project timing, Agriculture demand, steel costs, free cash flow, capital allocation, or market multiples change.
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