Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. research snapshot
VIST AI stock analysis reads Vista Energy as a fast-growing oil and gas producer in Argentina Vaca Muerta shale that just delivered a blockbuster second quarter, lowered its leverage, and generated positive free cash flow. The page is a static snapshot at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, using the July 31, 2026 close of $70.45 and a verified market capitalization of about $7.85 billion. The stock trades at 9.45x trailing earnings, 7.18x forward earnings, and 4.58x EV/EBITDA, below the average for large US E&P peers because the market still applies a country-risk discount to Argentina. Fundamentals improved sharply in Q2 2026: revenue rose 89% year over year to $1.15 billion, adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $805 million, production rose 32% to 156,100 boe per day, and net leverage fell to 1.41x adjusted EBITDA. The main risks are oil price sensitivity, Argentina policy and currency exposure, a low current ratio of 0.69, and the build-out of the VMOS export pipeline. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$70.45
Market cap
$7.85 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Fast-growing Vaca Muerta producer with improving balance sheet, offset by oil and Argentina risk
Trend status
Constructive uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong Q2 2026 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Vista produces oil and gas from premier Vaca Muerta acreage. Q2 2026 revenue was $1.15 billion, up 89% year over year, with production of 156,100 boe per day and a realized oil price of $89.40 per barrel. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from low-cost premier shale acreage, scale in the basin, and technical expertise. Lifting costs fell to $4.50 per boe in Q2 2026. But commodity producers are price takers and the advantage depends on concession and export terms. | Medium |
| Management | Founder, chairman and CEO Miguel Galuccio, a former YPF CEO who pioneered Vaca Muerta, led a founder team that closed the Equinor acquisition and is cutting net leverage from 1.41x toward about 1.0x. Key-person risk exists and capital allocation remains growth-first. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue and profit have grown strongly since 2021. FY2025 revenue was $2.474 billion with net income of $719 million. TTM revenue is about $3.53 billion, TTM net income about $830 million, and TTM free cash flow turned positive at about $301 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $70.45, trailing PE is 9.45x, forward PE is 7.18x, EV/EBITDA is about 4.58x, and price to sales is 2.23x. These multiples are below the large US E&P peer average, reflecting Argentina risk and the heavy capex cycle. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day moving average near $68.61 and the 200-day average near $59.64 after reclaiming them in late July. RSI is near 59 and the stock remains about 13.5% below the 52-week high of $81.44. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high due to concentrated Argentina operations, oil price sensitivity of about $200 million of adjusted EBITDA per $10 per barrel move, total debt of about $3.75 billion, a 0.69 current ratio, and ADR currency exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, pricing data, and market math. Medium for forward commodity price assumptions and Argentina macro scenarios. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business is operationally strong with improving cash flow and leverage, but commodity prices and Argentina policy create variance that public data cannot fully resolve. | Medium |
VIST AI stock forecast
The VIST AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $70.45 reference price rather than a single price promise. Management kept 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance at $3 billion and told investors each $10 per barrel change in oil during the second half would move adjusted EBITDA by about $200 million, which makes oil the central swing factor. The bull case builds on strong production growth, Equinor integration, and leverage falling to about 1.0x, while the bear case reflects a weaker oil market or a worsening Argentina macro backdrop.
$100 to $130
More likely if oil stays near current Brent levels, production exceeds the 158,000 boe per day 2026 guidance, the VMOS pipeline completes on schedule, net leverage reaches about 1.0x, and the market trims the Argentina country-risk discount. Analyst high targets approach $120.67.
$80 to $105
More likely if oil averages around $80 to $85, production hits the 158,000 boe per day guidance, leverage declines toward 1.0x, and the market keeps a country-risk discount. The average analyst target is $97.06.
$45 to $75
More likely if oil falls toward $60 or below, Argentina reimposes capital controls or raises export taxes, debt refinancing costs rise, or the Equinor or VMOS projects slip and free cash flow turns negative again.
VIST AI technical analysis
VIST AI technical analysis starts from the $70.45 July 31 close at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock reclaimed its 50-day moving average in late July and trades above both the 50-day average near $68.61 and the 200-day average near $59.64 after a strong Q2 report. RSI is near 59, positive but not overbought, while a 14-day average true range of about $2.85 and historic volatility near 44% show an active oil stock with wide daily ranges. Levels should be refreshed on a live chart before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $70.45 | July 31, 2026 close, used for market cap and valuation math at the August 3 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $66 to $68 | The 50-day moving average near $68.61 and the 20-day average near $65.53 form the first support band. A hold here keeps the July recovery intact. |
| Support | $62 to $64 | The July consolidation area near $62.32 and round-number support around $64 act as a secondary reference if the 50-day average fails. |
| Major support | $59.64 to $60 | The 200-day moving average at $59.64 and the July 2 low near $59.82. This is the medium-term trend line that matters most. |
| Near resistance | $72 to $73 | The June high area near $72.14 to $72.77. A break above it would signal a resumption of the uptrend. |
| Key resistance | $77 to $81.44 | The June 11 high of $77.21 and the 52-week high of $81.44 form the major upside test for the stock. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59 | Relative strength is positive but not overbought. ADX near 14 with positive directional index above negative directional index shows a strengthening but not extreme trend. |
| Volume | About 0.98 to 0.99 million average daily shares | The 20-day average volume is near 989,000 shares. Breakouts should be confirmed with volume above average. |
| Volatility | ATR about $2.85, historic volatility near 44% | The 14-day average true range is about $2.85, roughly 4% of price, so position sizing must allow wide daily ranges. |
| Invalidation | Close below $59.64 | A daily close below the 200-day moving average would break the medium-term recovery and point toward the lower part of the 52-week range. |
VIST AI trading strategy
The VIST AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines production, leverage, oil price, and Argentina policy monitoring with technical confirmation. The next scheduled earnings update is expected around late October 2026.
Watch for a break above $72 to $73 with above-average volume while VIST holds above the 50-day moving average near $68.61 and oil prices stay constructive.
A close back below $68 or a drop under the 20-day average near $65.50 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If VIST pulls back into the $64 to $66 zone without a new oil price or Argentina macro shock, compare the price with the $3 billion 2026 EBITDA guidance, net leverage progress, and the analyst target range.
Do not initiate unless the invalidation level and maximum position loss are defined, because the low current ratio and volatile oil prices can extend drawdowns.
Track Brent and WTI prices, monthly production versus the 158,000 boe per day guidance, VMOS pipeline progress, net leverage toward about 1.0x, free cash flow net of acquisitions, Argentina policy (RIGI, capital controls, export taxes), and the Q3 2026 earnings report.
Lower confidence if the stock rallies on oil strength alone while Argentina CDS spreads or regulatory headlines deteriorate, or if leverage stops falling.
Investment research summary
Vista finds, develops, and produces oil and gas from the Vaca Muerta shale in Argentina. Customers are commodity wholesalers and prices follow global benchmarks. The company earns by producing low-cost barrels, with lifting costs of $4.50 per boe in Q2 2026.
The moat rests on premier Vaca Muerta acreage, low lifting costs, scale in the basin, and technical expertise from a founder team that pioneered the play. Commodity producers are price takers, so the moat is a cost and resource advantage rather than pricing power.
The thesis fails if Argentina reimposes capital controls or raises export taxes, oil falls sharply and makes expansion economics marginal, the Equinor or VMOS projects slip, debt refinancing costs rise, or the low current ratio forces balance sheet stress.
Founder, chairman and CEO Miguel Galuccio, a former YPF CEO who pioneered Vaca Muerta, leads a team that closed the Equinor Vaca Muerta acquisition and is cutting net leverage from 1.41x toward about 1.0x. Key-person risk exists and capital allocation stays growth-first.
Global oil demand faces long-term energy transition risk, but medium-term supply constraints and underinvestment support prices. Vaca Muerta is advantaged within Argentina, and the sector trend favors scale and consolidation, where Vista is an active consolidator.
At about $7.85 billion market cap, 9.45x trailing earnings, 7.18x forward earnings, and 4.58x EV/EBITDA, the stock is cheap versus large US E&P peers but prices in Argentina country risk, oil sensitivity, and a heavy capex cycle. The margin of safety depends on oil holding near current levels and leverage continuing to fall.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIST price | $70.45 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.85 billion, verified as $70.45 x 111.44 million shares with 0.01% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 111.44 million shares, up 5.09% year over year, with institutions owning about 50.64% and insiders about 14.94% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1.15 billion, up 89% year over year and 66% sequentially | MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights and Vista Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $805 million, up 99% year over year | MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights and Vista Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | Net income of $322 million, up 37% year over year, with EPS of $3 | MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights and Vista Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production | 156,100 boe per day, up 32% year over year, with oil production of 135,400 barrels per day and a realized oil price of $89.40 per barrel | MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights and Vista Q2 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $3.53 billion, up about 78% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $830 million net income and $7.49 EPS, verified as 9.45x trailing PE at $70.45 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue and net income | $2.474 billion revenue, up 50.15%, and $719.06 million net income, up 50.58% | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net leverage | $606.81 million cash, about $3.75 billion total debt at June 30, 2026, and net leverage of 1.41x adjusted EBITDA, or 1.25x pro forma, with a ~1.0x year-end target | StockAnalysis statistics and MarketBeat Q2 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 9.45x trailing PE, 7.18x forward PE, 2.23x price to sales, 2.23x price to book, 26.06x price to FCF, and 4.58x EV/EBITDA based on StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3 billion maintained on an $85 per barrel oil assumption, with each $10 per barrel oil change worth about $200 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second half | MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 12 analysts with an average price target of $97.06 and a range of $80.26 to $120.67 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $68.61, 200-day moving average $59.64, RSI 59.37, beta -0.48, 52-week range $31.63 to $81.44, and 20-day average volume about 989,000 shares | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Return on equity | 29.79% TTM, with return on invested capital of 14.21% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.29 million shares, about 2.60% of shares outstanding, with a short ratio of 2.61 days | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This VIST AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Vista Energy shares. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff and can be wrong. Oil and gas investments carry commodity price, country, currency, and regulatory risks.
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