V.F. Corporation research snapshot
VFC AI stock analysis reads V.F. Corporation as a multi-brand apparel company whose fiscal 2027 first quarter beat on revenue and raised full-year guidance, yet the stock fell sharply after the July 29, 2026 report because Vans was still down 9% and the CFO announced a departure. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest close used here was $14.32 on July 31, market capitalization was about $5.63 billion, and the main question is whether The North Face growth and margin expansion can offset a still-declining Vans wholesale business, consumer spending pressure, and elevated leverage. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$14.32
Market cap
$5.63 billion
AI score
45 / 100
Rating
Turnaround intact, Vans remains the swing factor
Trend status
Post-earnings drop below key moving averages, testing lower support
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | VFC owns strong heritage brands (The North Face, Vans, Timberland) but the portfolio is in transition. The North Face and Timberland are growing while Vans is the main drag. Business quality depends on Vans wholesale stabilization and brand reinvestment. | Medium |
| Moat | The North Face has durable brand equity in outdoor apparel and is benefiting from gorpcore momentum. Vans has cultural history but lost share to running and outdoor footwear trends. Timberland is steady. Overall moat is narrower than five years ago and brand-driven rather than structural. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Bracken Darrell has a strong turnaround track record and the team delivered a Q1 revenue beat with raised full-year guidance. CFO Paul Vogel departs and COO Abhishek Dalmia takes on a combined CFO and COO role from August 1. Debt has dropped and free cash flow is stable, but the CFO transition adds leadership uncertainty. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue was flat at $1.7B in fiscal Q1 2027 versus guidance of a low single-digit decline, and full-year guidance was raised to 2%+ growth. FY2026 revenue of $9.6B ended a three-year decline. Gross margin is about 55%, and the company maintains its 8% operating margin target for fiscal 2027. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $14.32, VFC trades at about 20.8x trailing earnings, near 12.4x forward earnings, about 0.6x sales, and near 9x free cash flow. Enterprise value of about $9.9B is roughly 1.0x revenue. Valuation is reasonable for a successful turnaround but offers little cushion if improvement stalls. | Medium |
| Technical trend | VFC fell about 18% after the July 29 report and closed at $14.32 on July 31, below both the 50-day average near $16.80 and the 200-day average near $17.65. The stock is well above the 52-week low of $11.11 but has given back most of its 2026 recovery. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated. Key risks include Vans wholesale decline, leverage near 2.8x debt-to-equity, discretionary consumer weakness, tariff and FX pressure, the CFO transition, the Dickies divestiture integration, and potential impairments on remaining brands. | High |
| AI confidence | Medium confidence for the business map, financial filings, debt structure, and market cap math. Lower confidence for future revenue, Vans trajectory, margin delivery, and stock price scenarios because the turnaround outcome depends on execution that public data cannot predict. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low. VFC is a high-risk turnaround. The stock fell 18% after a quarter that actually beat guidance, which shows how sensitive the market is to Vans data points. Outcomes range from a successful re-rating to renewed decline, and the difference hinges on execution factors. | Low |
VFC AI stock forecast
The VFC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $14.32 July 31, 2026 close. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires Vans wholesale to improve in the second half of fiscal 2027 as guided, The North Face to keep growing, and margins to reach the 8% target. The base case assumes steady margin recovery with modest revenue growth. The bearish case assumes consumer weakness or a stalled Vans turnaround.
$20 to $26
More likely if Vans second-half revenue improves to -2% or better as guided, The North Face sustains mid-single-digit growth, operating margins reach the 8% target and move toward the 10% medium-term goal, leverage drops below 2.5x, and the market re-rates the stock toward 14-16x forward earnings.
$13 to $17
More likely if VFC delivers 2% revenue growth, margins slowly expand toward 8%, Vans stabilizes at mid-single-digit declines, leverage improves modestly, and the stock trades near the analyst median target of about $17 and 12-13x forward earnings.
$9 to $12
More likely if Vans wholesale stays weak through the second half, consumer discretionary spending softens, tariffs or FX pressure margins, leverage stays above 2.9x, or the CFO transition slows decision-making and delivery.
VFC AI technical analysis
VFC AI technical analysis starts from the $14.32 close on July 31, 2026 used for this static page. The stock fell roughly 18% after the July 29 fiscal Q1 report and closed below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while holding well above the 52-week low of $11.11. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.32 | Latest verified close on July 31, 2026, used for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $13.00 to $13.50 | The low end of recent consolidation and near the lowest analyst target. A close below this zone would signal renewed downside pressure. |
| Secondary support | $11.11 to $11.65 | The 52-week low area. Holding above this zone keeps the recovery thesis alive; losing it would suggest the turnaround is being repriced. |
| Near resistance | $15.00 to $15.50 | The immediate overhead zone after the post-earnings drop. A recovery above this level would need volume confirmation. |
| Key resistance | $16.80 to $17.65 | The 50-day and 200-day moving average zone. Reclaiming these averages would be a meaningful sign of trend repair. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $16.80 | VFC closed well below its 50-day average after the earnings drop, a bearish short-term signal. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $17.65 | The stock is below its 200-day average, leaving the long-term trend in question until it is reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI near 34, weak | RSI was near 34 as of the August 3 cutoff, below neutral and near oversold territory, showing the post-earnings decline was not yet resolved. |
| Volume | Elevated on the report | Volume rose well above the roughly 7.8 million share average around the July 29 earnings release, consistent with a distribution move. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.59 | Five-year beta is above 1, so the stock has moved more than the market. Position sizing should allow for wider daily swings near the current price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $11.11 | A close below the 52-week low of $11.11 would invalidate the recovery setup. Reclaiming $17.65 would signal the trend is repairing. |
VFC AI trading strategy
The VFC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. Given VFC is a high-risk turnaround with a post-earnings slide, position size should reflect elevated uncertainty and earnings timing.
Look for VFC to reclaim the $16.80 to $17.65 moving average zone with improving volume and positive catalysts such as Vans wholesale improvement or a margin beat. Wait for confirmation above $17.65 before establishing a position.
A failed recovery, low-volume move, or daily close back below $15.00 should reduce confidence. A close below $13.00 would argue against the setup.
If VFC holds the $13.00 to $13.50 support zone and shows price stabilization with declining volume, a cautious mean-reversion approach could be considered. Confirm with the next quarterly results before adding risk.
Do not average down solely because the stock looks cheap. Define maximum position loss and review quarterly results before adding.
Track fiscal 2027 quarterly results, Vans DTC and wholesale trends, The North Face growth, gross margin progression, operating margin delivery toward 8%, debt-to-EBITDA, free cash flow, and any tariff or FX commentary. Watch how the new combined CFO and COO role affects guidance.
Lower conviction if revenue growth stalls, margins compress, leverage rises, or Vans wholesale does not improve in the second half. Monitor insider buying or selling patterns.
Investment research summary
VFC designs, markets, and distributes outdoor, active, and work apparel and footwear through brands like The North Face, Vans, Timberland, and Dickies, plus smaller labels such as Altra and Smartwool. The business model combines wholesale distribution, DTC channels, and brand marketing to convert brand equity into demand across regions.
The moat is brand equity in outdoor (The North Face, Timberland) and youth culture (Vans), supported by distribution scale and supply chain. The Vans decline shows brand relevance is not guaranteed, so the moat is narrower than in 2021 and needs active reinvestment to hold.
The thesis can fail if Vans wholesale stays weak and never turns, if The North Face growth decelerates after a strong quarter, if tariffs or FX pressure margins, if consumer spending on discretionary apparel falls, or if the CFO transition and portfolio changes slow execution and raise costs.
CEO Bracken Darrell previously turned around Logitech. The team beat fiscal Q1 revenue guidance and raised full-year guidance to 2%+ growth, while CFO Paul Vogel departs and COO Abhishek Dalmia takes on a combined CFO and COO role. Debt reduction and free cash flow discipline are real, but revenue growth and Vans revitalization remain unproven.
Apparel and footwear are being reshaped by athleisure, DTC, and sustainability pressure. Outdoor brands like The North Face benefit from gorpcore momentum and the upcoming Olympic Winter Games sponsorship. Vans faces structural headwinds as skate culture influences less of mainstream footwear fashion than it once did.
At roughly $14.32, VFC trades at about 20.8x trailing earnings, near 12.4x forward earnings, about 0.6x sales, and near 9x free cash flow, with an enterprise value of about $9.9 billion. The margin of safety depends on whether the company delivers the 8% operating margin and a Vans second-half improvement.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VFC price | $14.32 close on July 31, 2026, after a post-earnings drop | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.63 billion, verified as $14.32 x 393,130,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis shares outstanding | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue | About $1.7 billion, flat year over year, above guidance | VFC fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release and call | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $9.605 billion | VFC FY2026 annual report and StockAnalysis income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income (continuing ops) | $254.9 million | VFC FY2026 10-K and StockAnalysis income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Gross margin | 54.8% in FY2026, with adjusted gross margin about 54.9% in fiscal Q1 2027 | VFC earnings materials and StockAnalysis financial data | August 3, 2026 |
| Operating margin | 6.0% in FY2026, with a fiscal 2027 target of about 8% | VFC fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release and guidance | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | About $628 million on a TTM basis | StockAnalysis cash flow data (operating cash flow minus capex) | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | About $670 million at June 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet data | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | About $4.95 billion at June 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet data | August 3, 2026 |
| Leverage ratio | Fiscal 2027 year-end target between 2.6x and 2.9x debt-to-EBITDA | VFC fiscal Q1 2027 earnings call guidance | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E and forward P/E | About 20.8x TTM earnings, approximately 12.4x to 13x forward earnings | financial_rigor.py valuation verification, StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average price target $18.77 across 23 analysts | StockAnalysis analyst forecast page | July 30, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $11.11 to $22.27 | Yahoo Finance 52-week range | August 3, 2026 |
This VFC AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. Past performance and debt reduction do not guarantee future results. VFC is a high-risk turnaround investment with elevated volatility and may lose value.
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