Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp. research snapshot
VAC AI stock analysis reads Marriott Vacations Worldwide as a cyclical timeshare and vacation ownership turnaround that is showing early execution traction under a new management team. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, VAC traded near $97.61, up about 0.10% on August 3, with a market capitalization around $3.35 billion. The stock has roughly doubled from the 52-week low near $44.58 but has cooled about 8% below the 52-week high of $105.97, trading below its 20-day moving average while staying above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Q1 2026 contract sales fell 2% to $411 million as planned, adjusted EBITDA fell 16% to $161 million, and adjusted free cash flow improved to $114 million, while April contract sales rose 8% year over year and management raised full-year contract sales guidance to plus 3% to plus 7%. The AI analysis is constructive on the brand portfolio, the Interval International network, and the new leadership incentives, but cautious on corporate debt near $3.3 billion, leverage near 4.2x, GAAP net losses from impairment charges, and consumer discretionary sensitivity. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$97.61 at the August 3, 2026, 2:42 PM EDT reading
Market cap
$3.35 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Cyclical turnaround with improving execution and high leverage
Trend status
Medium-term uptrend intact above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with a short-term pullback below the 20-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | VAC sells vacation ownership interests across luxury to upper-upscale brands under long-term license agreements with Marriott International and an affiliate of Hyatt, and operates Interval International, one of the largest timeshare exchange networks globally, with about 700,000 owner families. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from exclusive brand licenses, resort portfolio scale with 120 vacation ownership resorts, high switching costs for owners in the exchange network, and Interval International network effects across more than 3,200 affiliated resorts. New entrants cannot replicate the brand portfolio or owner base quickly. | Medium-high |
| Management | Matt Avril was appointed permanent CEO in February 2026 after serving as interim CEO, Mike Flaskey was named President and Chief Operating Officer, Tony Walker was hired as Chief Sales and Marketing Officer, and the Chief Financial Officer was retained under a new employment agreement effective July 30, 2026 with a base salary of at least $650,000 and a CFO Transformation Award tied to stock price and Adjusted EBITDA goals. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 contract sales fell 2% to $411 million, adjusted EBITDA fell 16% to $161 million, adjusted diluted EPS fell 25% to $1.24, and adjusted free cash flow improved to $114 million. April contract sales rose 8% year over year. Management raised FY2026 contract sales guidance to plus 3% to plus 7% and reiterated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $755 million to $780 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $97.61, VAC trades at about 12.9x the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $7.55, within a consensus range of $7.10 to $8.01, at 1.68x book value, near 1.0x net sales, and with a dividend yield near 3.29%. These multiples are below historical averages and below the leisure peer group, but the analyst average price target of $90.30 sits below the current price. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical data is mixed in the short term and positive in the medium term. The stock closed at $97.51 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average near $98.23 but above its 50-day moving average near $93.88 and its 200-day moving average near $69.49, with 14-day RSI near 50.8 on the Yahoo chart data and near 51 on StockAnalysis.com statistics. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are high corporate debt near $3.3 billion with leverage near 4.2x, GAAP impairment charges from notes receivable, consumer spending sensitivity, economic recession impact on timeshare sales, rising defaults in vacation ownership financing, execution risk of the new sales initiatives, and the 7.34% short interest in the stock. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive research has high data confidence from SEC filings, the Q1 2026 earnings release and call, and third-party datasets re-fetched on August 3 and August 4, 2026. The forward forecast has lower certainty because VAC is cyclical, macro-dependent, and adjusted metrics differ significantly from GAAP. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. VAC has valuable brand assets and improving cash flow but carries significant balance sheet leverage and operates in a discretionary spending segment that is vulnerable to economic cycles, while the analyst average target sits below the current price. | Medium-low |
VAC AI stock forecast
The VAC AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a single price promise. The three-year framework using the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $7.55 produced a bearish area near $64, a base area near $108, and a bullish area near $170. Actual outcomes will depend on contract sales growth, the ramp of the new loyalty tiers, Dream Vacation Packages, and Inner Circle events, debt reduction progress, consumer travel demand, and broader market conditions.
$160 to $185
More likely if consumer travel demand stays strong, VAC contract sales keep growing above the raised guidance, the Inner Circle events and new loyalty tiers lift VPGs, leverage falls below 4x, GAAP impairments shrink, and the stock re-rates toward the high end of analyst targets near $119.
$95 to $125
More likely if VAC executes on the turnaround with contract sales up 3% to 7% for the year, adjusted EBITDA reaches the reiterated $755 million to $780 million range, adjusted free cash flow hits $375 million to $425 million, and the stock trades near 12x to 14x forward adjusted earnings.
$50 to $75
More likely if a recession reduces timeshare demand, defaults on VAC-financed notes rise, impairment charges remain elevated, the dividend is cut, leverage ratios worsen, or the stock re-rates toward the low targets of $52 and $68 from the two Sell-rated firms.
VAC AI technical analysis
VAC AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads mixed in the short term and positive in the medium term. The stock closed at $97.51 on July 31, 2026 per Yahoo Finance chart data, below its 20-day moving average near $98.23 but above its 50-day moving average near $93.88 and its 200-day moving average near $69.49, with 14-day RSI near 50.8 and a slightly negative MACD histogram near -0.40.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $97.61 | StockAnalysis.com listed the real-time price at $97.61 on August 3, 2026 at 2:42 PM EDT, up 0.10 from the $97.51 July 31 close. |
| Near support | $93.40 to $94.50 | The 50-day moving average is near $93.88 per Yahoo chart data and near $94.41 per StockAnalysis.com statistics, and the lower Bollinger band is near $93.42. This zone has been the recent buying area. |
| Deeper support | $67.60 to $71.00 | The 200-day moving average is near $69.49 per Yahoo chart data and near $70.65 per StockAnalysis.com statistics. A break below this zone would damage the medium-term recovery trend. |
| Near resistance | $98.20 to $105.97 | The 20-day moving average near $98.23 is the first hurdle, and the 52-week high of $105.97 is the key resistance. A breakout above $106 would signal renewed momentum. |
| 52-week range | $44.58 to $105.97 | Google Finance listed the 52-week range. The stock has roughly doubled from the low and sits near the upper half of the range. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51, MACD slightly negative | Yahoo chart data shows 14-day RSI near 50.8 and a MACD histogram near -0.40, meaning short-term momentum has cooled but is not oversold. |
| Volume | 321,300 latest vs 401,320 20-day average | Yahoo chart data shows the latest volume at 0.80x the 20-day average, so any breakout should be confirmed with stronger participation. |
| Volatility | ATR14 near $3.87 or about 4.0% | Yahoo chart data shows 14-day ATR near $3.87, and beta is near 1.22 to 1.24, so VAC is moderately more volatile than the S&P 500. |
| Invalidation | Close below $93.40, then $67.60 | A close below the $93.40 to $94.50 support zone weakens the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average near $69.50 would damage the larger recovery structure. |
VAC AI trading strategy
The VAC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical timeshare stock with improving fundamental momentum and elevated debt. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings report, debt metrics, and position sizing rules.
Watch for VAC to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $98.23 and attempt a break above the $105.97 52-week high with volume above the 20-day average near 401,000 shares.
A close below $93.40 or a failed breakout near the 52-week high on low volume should invalidate the short-term setup. Reduce position size if volume stays below average.
If VAC pulls back toward the $93.40 to $94.50 support zone without a change in the fundamental story, the stock has shown resilience in this area and remains above the 50-day and 200-day averages.
Do not treat the 3.29% dividend yield as a downside floor. High debt and impairment charges can cause sharp re-ratings. Set stops below the 200-day moving average near $69.50.
Track quarterly contract sales growth, adjusted EBITDA versus the $187 million to $202 million Q2 guidance, adjusted free cash flow, net corporate debt and leverage, timeshare note defaults, and the ramp of Inner Circle and new loyalty tiers.
Reduce exposure if VAC reports weaker contract sales, rising delinquencies or defaults, higher leverage, or an adjusted EBITDA miss. The Q2 2026 earnings report on August 6, 2026 is the next key catalyst.
Investment research summary
Marriott Vacations Worldwide sells vacation ownership interests under premium hotel brands and operates the Interval International exchange network, earning revenue from initial sales, financing, resort management, rental, and exchange fees.
The moat is brand licensing plus network scale. Exclusive long-term agreements with Marriott International and an affiliate of Hyatt provide distribution advantages, while Interval International network of over 3,200 affiliated resorts creates switching costs for owners.
The thesis fails if consumer discretionary spending declines sharply, timeshare defaults rise, VAC is unable to service corporate debt near $3.3 billion, Marriott or Hyatt do not renew brand licenses on favorable terms, or GAAP impairments keep reported net income negative.
Matt Avril was named permanent CEO in February 2026, Mike Flaskey was hired as President and Chief Operating Officer, Tony Walker was appointed Chief Sales and Marketing Officer, and the Chief Financial Officer was retained under a new employment agreement effective July 30, 2026 with a transformation award tied to stock price and Adjusted EBITDA goals. Q1 execution included a cost restructuring, the Westin Cancun sale, and a raised contract sales outlook.
The timeshare and vacation ownership industry benefits from secular travel growth, experience spending, and the shift toward flexible vacation products. However, it is cyclical and sensitive to consumer confidence, credit availability, and economic downturns.
At about 12.9x the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $7.55, VAC trades below its historical average and below the leisure peer group, but the analyst average price target of $90.30 sits below the current price. The margin of safety is modest because high debt leverage amplifies downside in a recession scenario, and the three-scenario model shows a base case near $108.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAC price | $97.61 at the August 3, 2026, 2:42 PM EDT reading | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.35 billion, verified as $97.61 x 34.34 million shares | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 34.34 million, down 17.36% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 contract sales | $411 million, down 2% year over year, with owner sales up 3% | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release and call | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $161 million, down 16% year over year | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted diluted EPS | $1.24, down 25% year over year | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income and GAAP EPS | Net income of $22 million and diluted EPS of $0.64 | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow | $114 million, up $74 million year over year | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| April 2026 contract sales | Up 8% year over year, with North America up 11% | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| FY2026 contract sales guidance | Contract sales up 3% to 7%, raised from prior guidance | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release and call | May 5, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance | $755 million to $780 million, reiterated | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance | $375 million to $425 million | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | Contract sales up 4% to 8% and adjusted EBITDA of $187 million to $202 million | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Corporate debt and leverage | $3.3 billion corporate debt, $2.3 billion non-recourse debt, and leverage near 4.2x, with no corporate debt maturities until December 2027 | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release and call | May 5, 2026 |
| April 2026 securitization | $460 million raised at a 4.86% blended interest rate with a 98% advance rate | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings call | May 5, 2026 |
| CFO employment agreement | New agreement effective July 30, 2026, with a base salary of at least $650,000, a target bonus of 110% of base, and a CFO Transformation Award tied to stock price and Adjusted EBITDA goals | SEC Form 8-K filed August 3, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 11 analysts with an average price target of $90.30, a low of $52, and a high of $119 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 17, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.20 annual, 3.29% yield, $0.80 quarterly, ex-dividend May 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $58.02 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $44.58 to $105.97 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.52 million shares, 7.34% of shares outstanding, about 5.8 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Key valuation multiples | 12.39x forward PE on StockAnalysis.com statistics, about 12.9x on the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $7.55, 1.68x book value, and a dividend yield near 3.29% | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Close $97.51, SMA20 $98.23, SMA50 $93.88, SMA200 $69.49, RSI near 50.8, ATR14 near $3.87 | Yahoo Finance chart data via technical_analysis.py | August 4, 2026 |
This VAC AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, SEC filings, debt metrics, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
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