Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp. research snapshot
VAC AI stock analysis reads Marriott Vacations Worldwide as a cyclical timeshare and vacation ownership business with strong brand licenses from Marriott, Ritz-Carlton, Westin, Sheraton, and Hyatt, plus the Interval International exchange network. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, VAC traded near $98.31 with a market capitalization around $3.38 billion. The stock has risen from a 52-week low of $44.58, supported by travel demand, cost restructuring, and positive free cash flow. The AI analysis is constructive on brand value, exchange network scale, and restructuring execution, but cautious on high debt leverage, GAAP impairment charges, consumer discretionary sensitivity, and the risk of economic slowdown. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$98.31
Market cap
$3.38 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cyclical timeshare leader with brand licensing and high leverage
Trend status
Positive medium-term momentum, near 52-week highs
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | VAC sells vacation ownership interests across luxury to upper-upscale brands under long-term license agreements with Marriott International, Hyatt, and others, and operates Interval International, one of the largest timeshare exchange networks globally. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from exclusive brand licenses, resort portfolio scale, high switching costs for owners in the exchange network, and Interval International network effects. New entrants cannot replicate the brand portfolio or owner base quickly. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO John Geller has led the company since its spin-off. Management is focused on debt reduction, restructuring sales operations, improving free cash flow, and returning capital via dividends. Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow improved to $114 million year over year. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was approximately $3.3 billion with a large GAAP net loss of -$342 million driven by Q4 2025 impairment charges. Adjusted EBITDA was $567 million. Q1 2026 revenue of $1.26 billion grew 5% year over year. Adjusted EPS guidance for FY2026 is $8.0. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $98.31, VAC trades at about 12.3x FY2026 consensus EPS of $8.0, 1.7x book value, 10.4x estimated free cash flow, and 15.4x trailing EBITDA. These multiples are below historical averages and below the leisure peer group. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technical data is constructive with VAC near its 52-week high of $105.97 and well above the 52-week low of $44.58. RSI is near 60 and not overbought. The stock has more than doubled from the 2025 lows. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are high debt leverage, GAAP impairment charges from notes receivable, consumer spending sensitivity, economic recession impact on timeshare sales, rising defaults in vacation ownership financing, and seasonality in contract sales. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive research has high data confidence from SEC filings and company presentations. The forward forecast has lower certainty because VAC is cyclical and macro-dependent, and adjusted metrics differ significantly from GAAP. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. VAC has valuable brand assets and improving cash flow but carries significant balance sheet leverage and operates in a discretionary spending segment that is vulnerable to economic cycles. | Medium-low |
VAC AI stock forecast
The VAC AI stock forecast uses scenario math rather than a single price promise. The audited three-year framework using FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $8.0 produced a bearish area near $64, a base area near $121, and a bullish area near $183. Actual outcomes will depend on consumer travel demand, timeshare contract sales growth, debt reduction progress, and broader market conditions.
$170 to $195
More likely if consumer travel demand stays strong, VAC contract sales grow above 5% annually, debt reduction progresses faster than expected, GAAP impairments shrink, adjusted EBITDA margins expand, and the stock re-rates toward historical leisure peer multiples.
$110 to $130
More likely if VAC executes on restructuring targets, adjusted EPS grows near $8.50 to $9.00 by FY2027, contract sales grow modestly, free cash flow remains positive, and the stock trades near 12 to 14x forward earnings.
$50 to $75
More likely if a recession reduces timeshare demand, defaults on VAC-financed notes rise, impairment charges remain elevated, the dividend is cut, leverage ratios worsen, or the stock re-rates below 8x trough earnings.
VAC AI technical analysis
VAC AI technical analysis is positive as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Investing.com reported VAC with an RSI near 60, above its 50-day moving average, and a neutral-to-buy daily signal. The stock is trading near the upper end of a strong recovery channel from the 52-week low of $44.58.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $98.31 | Investing.com reported the July 10, 2026 close at $98.31. |
| Near support | $88.00 to $91.00 | The 50-day moving average is estimated near this zone. The stock has found buying interest at pullbacks to the low-$90s. |
| Deeper support | $72.00 to $78.00 | The 200-day moving average is estimated in this range. A break below would damage the medium-term recovery trend. |
| Near resistance | $102.00 to $106.00 | The 52-week high of $105.97 is the key resistance level. A breakout above this level would signal continued momentum. |
| 52-week range | $44.58 to $105.97 | Google Finance listed the 52-week range, showing the stock has more than doubled from its lows. |
| Momentum | RSI near 60, MACD neutral | Investing.com technical data shows positive but not overbought momentum. RSI below 70 leaves room for further upside. |
| Volume | 233,888 vs 533,564 50-day average | Recent volume was below the 50-day average, so breakouts should be confirmed with stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Beta of 1.21 | VAC is moderately more volatile than the S&P 500. Wider stops may be needed in trading strategies. |
| Invalidation | Close below $88.00, then $72.00 | A close below the $88 support zone weakens the short-term trend. A break below $72 would damage the larger recovery structure. |
VAC AI trading strategy
The VAC AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical timeshare stock with positive momentum and elevated debt. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, earnings reports, debt metrics, and position sizing rules.
Watch for VAC to hold above the $88 to $91 support zone and attempt a breakout above the $102 to $106 resistance area with volume above the 50-day average.
A close below $88 or a failed breakout near the 52-week high on low volume should invalidate the short-term setup. Reduce position size if volume stays below average.
If VAC pulls back toward the $78 to $88 zone without a fundamental catalyst change, consider that the stock has shown resilience and recovered from deeper drawdowns in the past year.
Do not treat the 3.2% dividend yield as a downside floor. High debt and impairment charges can cause sharp re-ratings. Set stops below the 200-day moving average.
Track quarterly contract sales growth, adjusted EBITDA margins, free cash flow, net debt to EBITDA ratio, timeshare note defaults, restructuring progress, and consumer travel spending data.
Reduce exposure if VAC reports declining contract sales, rising defaults, or increasing net debt. The next earnings report around August 10, 2026 is a key catalyst.
Investment research summary
Marriott Vacations Worldwide sells vacation ownership interests (timeshare) under premium hotel brands and operates the Interval International exchange network, earning revenue from initial sales, financing, resort management, and exchange fees.
The moat is brand licensing plus network scale. Exclusive agreements with Marriott, Ritz-Carlton, Westin, Sheraton, and Hyatt provide distribution advantages, while Interval Internationals network of over 3,200 affiliated resorts creates switching costs for owners.
The thesis fails if consumer discretionary spending declines sharply, timeshare defaults rise, VAC is unable to service its significant debt load, Marriott or Hyatt do not renew brand licenses on favorable terms, or GAAP impairments keep reported net income negative.
CEO John Geller and the management team are executing a restructuring program focused on sales efficiency, cost reduction, and debt paydown. Q1 2026 showed improved adjusted free cash flow. Capital allocation priorities include debt reduction and maintaining the dividend.
The timeshare and vacation ownership industry benefits from secular travel growth, experience spending, and the shift toward flexible vacation products. However, it is cyclical and sensitive to consumer confidence, credit availability, and economic downturns.
At 12.3x FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance, VAC trades below its historical average and below the leisure peer group. The margin of safety is modest because high debt leverage amplifies downside in a recession scenario. The three-scenario model shows a base case near $121.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAC price | $98.31 July 10, 2026 close | Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.38 billion, verified as $98.31 x 34.34 million shares | financial_rigor.py and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 34.34 million common shares | Google Finance and Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.26 billion, up 5% year over year | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $161 million, down 16% year over year | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings call | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow | $114 million, up $74 million year over year | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings call | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $3.33 billion | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income | -$342 million (includes Q4 2025 impairment charges) | Google Finance and Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing EBITDA | $567 million | Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $8.00 per share | Marriott Vacations Q1 2026 earnings call | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.20 annual, 3.24% yield, $0.80 quarterly | Google Finance and Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $58.06 | Investing.com | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $44.58 to $105.97 | Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Key valuation multiples | 12.3x FY2026 EPS, 1.7x book value, 15.4x EBITDA, 10.4x estimated FCF | Investing.com and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
This VAC AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 12, 2026, and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, SEC filings, debt metrics, and your own risk constraints before making financial decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
