Bullish case
$721 to $1,029
More likely if Tyvaso DPI growth accelerates, ralinepag and other pipeline programs win approvals, the ADVANCE OUTCOMES and TETON-1 data broaden the market, and investors accept a 20x to 25x earnings multiple.
United Therapeutics Corporation research snapshot
UTHR AI Stock Analysis
UTHR AI stock analysis sees United Therapeutics as a profitable rare-disease company whose Tyvaso franchise, net-cash balance sheet, share repurchase program, and positive ADVANCE OUTCOMES and TETON-1 clinical data support the business-quality case. The counterweight is that Q1 2026 revenue fell 2%, nebulized Tyvaso keeps declining, and the stock has pulled back from the May 2026 high near $596.76 to the July 31, 2026 close of $517.71. Price multiplied by 42.45 million shares produced a market capitalization near $21.98 billion at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. This UTHR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$517.71
Market cap
$21.98 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
Profitable rare-disease franchise with pipeline progress and competition risk
Trend status
Pulled back below the 50-day average after a strong 12-month run
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. United Therapeutics has long public filings, quarterly releases, product-level revenue disclosure, clinical updates, and active third-party financial coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is extrapolating a high-margin Tyvaso franchise as if it has no competitive or patent risk, and treating the May 2026 price peak as a durable trend. The review gives equal weight to Tyvaso mix, ralinepag and TETON readouts, reimbursement, clinical execution, and the gap between business quality and entry price.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Reported financial data and current product economics are well documented, while clinical readouts, competition, label expansion, and future pricing are inherently uncertain.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | United Therapeutics sells therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension and related serious diseases, with Tyvaso as the largest commercial franchise. | High |
| Moat | Specialist prescriber relationships, drug delivery know-how, commercial infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and cash-funded R&D support the moat, but patents and clinical differentiation require continued defense. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chairperson and CEO Martine Rothblatt has built a rare-disease business and funds pipeline, buybacks, and organ-manufacturing work. The key capital-allocation test is balancing R&D, buybacks, and disciplined clinical investment. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $3.18 billion and net income was $1.34 billion. Q1 2026 revenue was $781.5 million, down 2% year over year, while net income was $274.9 million, down 15%. | High |
| Valuation | financial_rigor.py verified about 19.1x TTM EPS and 21.6x TTM free cash flow per share at the July 31 close. That is below the analyst average target of $663.23 but still requires sustained earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $517.71 sat below the 50-day simple moving average of $544.38 and only slightly above the 200-day average of $514.39, with RSI(14) at 36.47. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because a concentrated product portfolio, competition, trial outcomes, reimbursement, and policy changes can outweigh a strong balance sheet. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for financial history and product revenue. Medium for clinical probabilities, technical levels, and scenario valuation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The core franchise and net cash are tangible, but future returns depend on durability beyond current Tyvaso economics and the price paid. | Medium |
UTHR AI stock forecast
UTHR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The UTHR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $517.71 July 31 close, not a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation using $27.07 TTM EPS produced mechanical three-year outputs near $1,029 in a bull case, $721 in a base case, and $444 in a bear case. Those are valuation frameworks, not predictions.
Base case
$518 to $721
More likely if commercial revenue returns to sequential growth, margins remain strong, buybacks reduce shares, and investors value the company near 18x to 20x earnings while waiting for pipeline evidence.
Bearish case
$444 to $518
More likely if Tyvaso demand weakens, competitors or generic risk pressure revenue, the commercial supply agreement loss repeats, clinical programs disappoint, or the market assigns a lower multiple.
UTHR AI technical analysis
UTHR AI Technical Analysis
UTHR AI technical analysis uses the $517.71 July 31, 2026 close and the StockAnalysis August 2 statistics snapshot. It showed a $544.38 50-day simple moving average, a $514.39 200-day simple moving average, RSI(14) of 36.47, and a 20-day average volume near 388,554 shares. Confirm live chart data before using any level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $517.71 | StockAnalysis regular-session close on July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $514 to $517 | The 200-day simple moving average at $514.39 and the July 31 low of $514.34 clustered in this zone. |
| Near resistance | $544 to $609 | The 50-day simple moving average near $544.38, the all-time closing high of $596.76 from May 6, 2026, and the 52-week high near $609.35. |
| 50-day moving average | $544.38 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot. The July 31 close was below it. |
| 200-day moving average | $514.39 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot. The July 31 close was only slightly above it. |
| Momentum | Weak | RSI(14) was 36.47 in the StockAnalysis snapshot, a sign momentum softened after the May peak. It does not replace a fresh chart review. |
| Volume | Above average | July 31 volume was 616,613 against a 20-day average near 388,554, so the pullback came with heavier trade. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.58 | Five-year beta was 0.58, below the market, but earnings and clinical events can create sharp one-day moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $514 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving-average zone would weaken a trend setup and requires a fresh fundamental review. |
UTHR AI trading strategy
UTHR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The UTHR AI trading strategy is a research framework for a clinical and regulatory-sensitive healthcare stock. It is not personal advice. Use position sizing, an earnings calendar, live chart confirmation, and explicit invalidation rules. The next scheduled report is Q2 2026 before market open on August 5, 2026.
Trend-following setup
Watch whether UTHR reclaims the $544 50-day moving average after holding the $514 to $517 support zone, with confirming volume. Recheck the August 5, 2026 Q2 report and any ralinepag or Tyvaso regulatory news.
A sustained move below the moving-average cluster or a negative revenue, trial, or regulatory update invalidates the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
Only consider a rebound framework after price stabilizes near the $514 to $517 support zone and Tyvaso demand, reimbursement, and pipeline news remain consistent with the thesis.
Do not average down through a support break caused by worsening Tyvaso trends, a clinical setback, or new competitive evidence.
Fundamental monitor
Track Tyvaso DPI and nebulized Tyvaso sales, Orenitram, operating margin, cash and investments, repurchase execution, ralinepag and TETON readouts, label expansion, and reimbursement changes.
Lower confidence if product concentration rises, revenue growth stalls, or R&D spending fails to produce credible commercial options.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Patients and specialist prescribers use United Therapeutics therapies to treat serious cardiopulmonary disease. The company earns most revenue from medicines and delivery systems, especially Tyvaso.
Moat
The moat combines approved therapies, specialist relationships, drug-delivery experience, regulatory knowledge, and a cash position that supports clinical development. It is not permanent because rare-disease markets attract competition and patents expire.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if investors treat Tyvaso as a perpetual annuity while competitors, generic exposure, reimbursement pressure, or a weaker product mix reduce growth before the pipeline can replace it.
Management
Management has a long record of investing in rare disease and adjacent organ-manufacturing work. The current question is whether R&D, buybacks, and the $2.0 billion authorization create more value than simply preserving net cash.
Industry trend
Pulmonary hypertension diagnosis and treatment are specialized, science-driven markets. New delivery formats, positive ADVANCE OUTCOMES and TETON-1 data, and label expansion can grow demand, while drug competition, payer control, and trial risk limit simple long-term extrapolation.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 19x TTM earnings and 22x TTM free cash flow per share, the price recognizes a profitable business and net cash but sits below the analyst average target of $663.23. Margin of safety improves if revenue durability is proven or the entry multiple falls.
Source-backed data
UTHR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTHR price | $517.71 at the July 31 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $21.98 billion, price times 42.45M shares | StockAnalysis quote plus financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 42.45 million | United Therapeutics Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.183 billion, up 10.61% | SEC 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.335 billion, up 11.68% | SEC 10-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $781.5 million, down 2% year over year | United Therapeutics Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $274.9 million, down 15% year over year | United Therapeutics Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Tyvaso revenue | $457.5 million, down 2% year over year | United Therapeutics Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable investments | $3.47 billion at March 31, 2026, with no debt | SEC 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchase authorization | $2.0 billion authorized in March 2026, $500 million remaining | United Therapeutics Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average price target $663.23 from 15 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA $544.38, 200-day SMA $514.39, RSI(14) 36.47 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 5, 2026 for Q2 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This UTHR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, clinical results, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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