Uranium Energy Corp. research snapshot
UEC AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Uranium Energy Corp as the largest US uranium resource holder moving through an early production ramp while trading well below its 2025 peak. The stock closed at $9.60 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $4.75 billion, re-verified during this refresh as $9.60 times 494.87 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages and the Yahoo Finance quote. The fiscal Q3 2026 report, released June 9, 2026 for the quarter ended April 30, 2026, marked the start of production at Burke Hollow, the largest greenfield ISR project in America to enter production in over a decade, so UEC now operates two of its three US hub-and-spoke ISR platforms. The quarter produced 32,195 pounds of uranium concentrate at a total cost of $54.61 per pound, up from $44.14 in the prior quarter because new header houses came online late and state taxes rose, while cumulative cost since commissioning stayed low at $39.30 per pound across 276,516 pounds. The balance sheet held $488 million of cash, roughly $794 million of liquid assets including equity securities, subscription receipts, and uranium inventory, and no debt, with 1,456,000 pounds of U3O8 inventory valued at $127 million at market prices. Offsetting the asset strength is a stretched valuation near 235x trailing sales and 3.3x book value on TTM revenue of only $20.2 million, negative free cash flow near $120 million over TTM, roughly 12.8% annual share dilution, and a bearish technical setup with the stock below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a 44% drawdown over six months. Analysts stay constructive at Strong Buy with an $18.03 average target across 9 analysts, but the sector de-rated in 2026 even as nuclear policy support widened.
Current price
$9.60
Market cap
$4.75 billion
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
US uranium producer with a strong balance sheet and a rich valuation in a bearish technical trend
Trend status
Bearish, trading below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | UEC owns the largest uranium resource base and the most licensed US production capacity near 12 million pounds per year across its Wyoming and South Texas platforms, and it started production at Burke Hollow in the fiscal Q3 2026, giving it two of three operating hub-and-spoke ISR platforms, but the business still generates minimal revenue relative to its asset base and market cap. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from owning the largest US uranium resource portfolio, the largest US licensed ISR production capacity, a hub-and-spoke production model with existing processing plants, ISR operating know-how, and US government policy support for a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain, with regulatory and permitting barriers protecting existing operators. | Medium-high |
| Management | Amir Adnani has led UEC since 2005 and built it into the largest US uranium resource holder. The team kept a debt-free balance sheet, used a 100% unhedged uranium strategy, preserved inventory in Q3 to keep pricing optionality, and made a small strategic purchase of Anfield Energy shares for $2.5 million, but the critical test is scaling production across two platforms while funding the conversion facility and controlling dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue is falling from the FY2025 base of $66.84 million to a consensus FY2026 estimate of about $23.93 million as the company preserves inventory and sells selectively, TTM net income is negative near $103.67 million, TTM free cash flow is negative near $120 million, and cash of $488 million with no debt provides a strong buffer for the ramp. | Medium-high on balance sheet, low on earnings trajectory |
| Valuation | At $9.60 and a $4.75 billion market cap, UEC trades near 235x trailing sales, 3.3x book value, and a 480x forward PE basis, with an enterprise value of $4.26 billion after net cash of about $486 million. Traditional earnings multiples do not apply because the company is not yet profitable, and the valuation implies significant future production growth with limited margin of safety. | Low |
| Technical trend | UEC closed at $9.60 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $9.55, $9.80, $11.16, $12.63, and $13.53, with 14-day RSI near 43.81 and 14-day ADX near 27.1 with negative directional index above positive directional index, confirming a downtrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are uranium price volatility, ISR production ramp execution and rising cost per pound, equity dilution for growth capex, the timing of the UR&C conversion facility, US nuclear fuel policy changes, the multi-year gap between current revenue and market capitalization, and the sector de-rating that has already cut UEC about 44% over six months. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is medium-high because the financial data, resource base, production status, and peer comparisons are source-backed and cross-validated. Return confidence is medium-low because UEC is an early-stage producer where valuation depends on future production ramp, uranium prices, dilution, and market sentiment. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | UEC has tangible advantages over pure developers: existing ISR production, US resource dominance, a strong cash position, and policy tailwinds. However, the revenue-to-valuation gap, negative free cash flow, and bearish technical trend create uncertainty that keeps investment certainty at low-to-medium. | Low-to-medium |
UEC AI stock forecast
The UEC AI stock forecast uses scenarios because the company is in an early production ramp and its future value depends on ISR production scaling, uranium prices, US nuclear fuel policy, and capital allocation decisions. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $9.60 as the reference price, the three-year outlook depends on whether production ramps toward the roughly 12 million pounds per year licensed capacity, how the uranium market evolves, and whether UEC reaches profitability milestones. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and they show how sensitive UEC is to production execution, commodity price realizations, and the sector valuation.
$15 to $22
More likely if UEC scales ISR production across its operating platforms with cost per pound staying low, uranium prices hold above $80 driven by reactor restarts and AI data-center electricity demand, FY2027 revenue grows toward the consensus near $116 million, the UR&C conversion facility and Roughrider pre-feasibility study advance, and US government procurement accelerates.
$9 to $13
More likely if UEC continues the production ramp with typical delays and rising cost per pound, uranium trades in the $65 to $85 range, equity dilution funds some growth capex, revenue grows from a low base while earnings stay negative, and the market holds the current multiple near 3.3x book value.
$5 to $8
More likely if uranium prices fall below $60 on new supply or softer nuclear demand, ISR production ramp falls materially behind schedule, heavy equity dilution funds operations, US nuclear fuel policy support weakens, the conversion facility faces delays, or the sector de-rating pushes the stock below the $7.80 52-week low.
UEC AI technical analysis
UEC AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $9.60 on July 31, 2026, below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $9.55, $9.80, $11.16, $12.63, and $13.53, with 14-day RSI near 43.81 and 14-day ADX near 27.1 with negative directional index above positive directional index, confirming a downtrend. After the fiscal Q3 2026 report the stock fell about 16% into mid-June and kept sliding to the $9.60 close, roughly 44% below its 52-week high of $20.34 and only about 23% above the $7.80 52-week low.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.60 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance both reported the July 31, 2026 close at $9.60, with after-hours prints near $9.55 on StockAnalysis.com and $9.44 on Yahoo Finance. |
| 5-day moving average | $9.55 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $9.55, just below the close after a small bounce off recent lows. |
| Near resistance | $9.80 to $10.00 | The 20-day moving average near $9.80 and the $10 round level cap the first bounce, with the previous close at $9.74 and the July 31 open at $10.00. |
| Next resistance | $11.16 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $11.16, the first major upside hurdle for any repair of the trend. |
| Upper resistance | $12.63 to $13.53 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $12.63 and the 200-day moving average near $13.53, both far above price and marking the prior breakdown zone. |
| Near support | $9.27 | The July 31 day low near $9.27 is the first level to watch, as a break below it would target the 52-week low. |
| 52-week low support | $7.80 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance both reported the 52-week low near $7.80, with the 52-week high near $20.34. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44, stochastic weak | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 43.81 and 14-day stochastic K near 33.29 and D near 32.09, neutral-weak with no oversold signal yet. |
| Trend | ADX near 27 with bearish DI | Barchart reported 14-day ADX near 27.11 with negative directional index near 25.33 above positive directional index near 17.65, confirming a downtrend rather than a range. |
| Volume | About 8 million to 10 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 7.9 million shares and Yahoo Finance near 9.9 million, with about 10.9 million to 11.7 million shares trading on July 31 across the two sources. |
| Volatility | High, around 62% historical volatility | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 62.47%, 14-day ATR near $0.65 (about 6.8% of price), and a 5-year beta near 1.19, so position sizing must account for large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $7.80 or reclaim of $11.16 | A decisive close below the $7.80 52-week low would open new lows, while a reclaim of the 50-day moving average near $11.16 on above-average volume would start repairing the bearish structure. |
UEC AI trading strategy
The UEC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with ISR production milestones, uranium price trends, US nuclear fuel policy developments, balance sheet and dilution data, and strict risk controls for a producer with a rich valuation and a bearish trend.
A trend-following long is not valid while price sits below the 20-day near $9.80 and the 50-day near $11.16 with negative directional index above positive directional index. Watch for a reclaim of $11.16 on above-average volume together with positive uranium price action or a US government nuclear fuel contract award before considering a long.
A failed reclaim followed by a close back below $9.80 should stop the idea, especially if it comes with disappointing production updates, equity dilution announcements, or falling uranium prices.
Watch whether UEC holds the $9.27 zone and builds a base above the $7.80 52-week low without adverse company-specific news. Assess any base against the cash position, production ramp status, cost per pound, and uranium price trend before acting.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the production ramp stalls, cost per pound keeps rising, cash burn accelerates, or equity dilution increases. Position sizing must account for the gap between current revenue and market cap, and a close below $7.80 should clear the setup.
Track quarterly production pounds and cost per pound at Burke Hollow and Christensen Ranch, uranium spot and long-term contract prices, US government nuclear fuel procurement, the UR&C conversion facility timeline, the Roughrider pre-feasibility study, cash and equity issuance, management guidance, and peer uranium producer valuations.
Position sizing should reflect that UEC is an early-stage producer valued at a premium to its current earnings power with negative free cash flow and roughly 12.8% annual dilution. A diversified uranium exposure across producers and developers may be more appropriate than concentrated UEC ownership.
Investment research summary
Customers pay for uranium fuel to generate nuclear power. UEC owns the largest uranium resource base in the US and uses ISR technology to produce it at lower cost and environmental impact than conventional mining, and it is building the first vertically integrated domestic fuel supply chain in America from mining through refining and conversion.
The moat combines the largest US uranium resource position, the most licensed US production capacity near 12 million pounds per year, a hub-and-spoke ISR production model with existing processing plants, ISR operating know-how, regulatory and permitting barriers, and US government policy support for domestic nuclear fuel supply chain independence.
The thesis fails if uranium prices fall below UEC cost base, the Burke Hollow and Christensen Ranch ramp stalls or cost per pound keeps rising, equity dilution outpaces production growth, US nuclear fuel policy shifts away from domestic procurement, the UR&C conversion facility faces delays, the premium valuation relative to TTM revenue of $20.2 million compresses, or the nuclear sector keeps de-rating even as policy headlines stay positive.
Amir Adnani has led UEC since 2005 and built the company from a junior explorer into the largest US uranium resource holder. The team kept a debt-free balance sheet, used a 100% unhedged strategy, preserved inventory in Q3 2026 to keep pricing optionality, and made a small strategic purchase of Anfield Energy shares for $2.5 million. The critical test ahead is scaling production across two platforms, delivering the conversion facility, and controlling dilution.
The uranium industry faces a structural tailwind from clean baseload nuclear power, AI data-center and electrification electricity demand, a multi-year uranium supply deficit, and US policy including the DOE Nuclear Dominance 3 by 33 campaign launched April 23, 2026. At the same time, uranium equities fell through 2026, with UEC down about 44% over six months, as investors moved from AI-nuclear enthusiasm to proof of production.
At $9.60 and a $4.75 billion market cap, UEC trades near 235x trailing sales and 3.3x book value against TTM revenue of $20.2 million and a TTM net loss of about $103.67 million, with negative free cash flow near $120 million. The price already embeds a large share of future production growth, so margin of safety is limited and depends on execution, the uranium market, and dilution control.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| UEC price reference | $9.60 at the July 31, 2026 close, after-hours prints near $9.55 on StockAnalysis.com and $9.44 on Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance quotes | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.75 billion, computed as $9.60 x 494.87 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages and verified to a 0.02% deviation with financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.26 billion, computed as the $4.75 billion market cap minus net cash of about $486 million, matching StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $7.80 low to $20.34 high, providing the full-year trading context, with the stock about 44% below the high and only about 23% above the low | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue TTM | $20.20 million from early ISR production ramp, down 69.78% year over year, representing about 235x price-to-sales | StockAnalysis.com financials and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income TTM | -$103.67 million loss as the company invests in production ramp-up before reaching scale profitability, with EPS of -$0.22 | StockAnalysis.com financials and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $488.05 million cash with about $1.91 million of debt, a net cash position of $486.14 million or $0.98 per share, giving UEC one of the strongest balance sheets among US uranium producers | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet, UEC Q3 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value | Shareholders equity of about $1.42 billion and book value per share near $2.88 as of the fiscal Q3 2026 balance sheet | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 235x trailing sales, 3.3x book value, and a 480x forward PE basis, with negative earnings and free cash flow multiples that do not apply | StockAnalysis.com statistics, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 production | 32,195 pounds of uranium concentrate produced at Christensen Ranch at a Total Cost of $54.61 per pound and Cash Cost of $46.69 per pound, up from $44.14 total cost in the prior quarter due to timing of regulatory approvals and higher state taxes | UEC fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release | June 9, 2026 |
| Cumulative ISR production | 276,516 pounds produced since commissioning at a Total Cost of $39.30 per pound and Cash Cost of $32.40 per pound, a leading cost position in the domestic industry | UEC fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release | June 9, 2026 |
| Uranium inventory | 1,456,000 pounds of U3O8 at April 30, 2026, valued at $127 million at market prices, excluding 276,516 pounds of precipitated and drummed uranium at the Irigaray CPP, held under a 100% unhedged strategy | UEC fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release | June 9, 2026 |
| Burke Hollow production | Production commenced at Burke Hollow in April 2026 after Texas Commission on Environmental Quality approval, making it the largest greenfield ISR project in America to enter production in over a decade and giving UEC two of three operating US hub-and-spoke platforms | UEC fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release | June 9, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and loss | FY2025 revenue of $66.84 million, up 29,737.95% from $0.22 million in FY2024, with a net loss of -$87.66 million and EPS of -$0.20 | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average 12-month target of $18.03 across 9 analysts, median $17, low $12, and high $26.75, representing about 87.81% upside from the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Yahoo Finance | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 1 Hold, and 0 Sell out of 9 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs lowered its target to $14 from $16 on July 15, 2026, Stifel maintained $23 on June 11, H.C. Wainwright reiterated $27 on June 10, Roth MKM reiterated $17 on June 10, and BMO Capital maintains Hold | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Yahoo Finance | July 29, 2026 |
| Financial forecast | FY2026 revenue estimated at $23.93 million, down 64.2% from FY2025, and FY2027 revenue estimated at $116.39 million, up 386.46%, with FY2026 EPS estimated at -$0.19 and FY2027 EPS at -$0.10 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 58.09 million shares short, 11.74% of shares outstanding and 11.96% of float, about 6.26 days to cover, up from 57.86 million in the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Share dilution | 494.87 million shares outstanding as of fiscal Q3 2026, up 12.81% year over year and 1.37% quarter over quarter, reflecting equity-funded growth capex | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Uranium market price | TradeTech spot uranium price near $86.50 per pound on the Uranium Energy Corp website, providing commodity context for UEC project economics | Uranium Energy Corp website quote and TradeTech | August 3, 2026 |
| DOE Nuclear Dominance campaign | The US Department of Energy launched the Nuclear Dominance 3 by 33 campaign on April 23, 2026, with three objectives by 2033 covering a secure domestic nuclear fuel supply chain, advanced reactor deployment, and Defense Production Act coordination | UEC fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release | June 9, 2026 |
| UR&C conversion facility | United States Uranium Refining & Conversion Corp received a Docket Number from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission as its first licensing milestone for a planned uranium conversion facility, with Fluor Corporation advancing engineering and a final shortlist of candidate locations | UEC fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release | June 9, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $9.55, 20-day SMA near $9.80, 50-day SMA near $11.16, 100-day SMA near $12.63, 200-day SMA near $13.53, 14-day RSI near 43.81, 14-day ADX near 27.11, 14-day historical volatility near 62.47% | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Annual meeting | At the July 23, 2026 annual meeting, Amir Adnani, Spencer Abraham, David Kong, Vincent Della Volpe, Gloria Ballesta, and Trecia Canty were elected to the board, PricewaterhouseCoopers was ratified as auditor, and Adnani was reappointed President and CEO | Uranium Energy Corp annual meeting press release | July 23, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Next earnings expected around September 24, 2026 for the fiscal fourth quarter ended July 31, 2026, after the June 9, 2026 fiscal Q3 report | Yahoo Finance earnings date | August 3, 2026 |
This UEC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if uranium prices, ISR production ramp rates, US nuclear fuel policy, equity markets, operating costs, or nuclear industry conditions change. Early-stage uranium producers carry elevated risk, including total loss of capital.
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