Ternium S.A. research snapshot
TX AI stock analysis currently reads Ternium S.A. as a low-multiple, integrated steel and mining business with meaningful assets in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and other markets. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, TX closed at $44.30 on July 10 with market capitalization near $8.70 billion. Ternium reported 2025 revenue of $15.609 billion, down 12% year over year, but first-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 48% from the prior year to $479 million and net sales were stable year over year at $3.934 billion. The TX AI stock forecast is therefore a recovery scenario, not a fixed price prediction. Steel prices, regional demand, trade policy, Usiminas execution, capital spending, currencies, and the next earnings report can change the outcome. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$44.30 NYSE close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$8.70 billion from 196.31 million ADS
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Cyclical steel and mining value case with improving 2026 margins, elevated commodity and country risk
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, above the 200-day average but below the 50-day average with neutral RSI
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ternium makes flat and long steel products and mines iron ore, serving construction, automotive, appliance, machinery, infrastructure, and industrial customers across several regions. | High |
| Moat | Scale, integrated production, regional assets, customer relationships, Usiminas control, and the Pesquería expansion provide a useful moat. Steel prices and imported supply limit pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Máximo Vedoya has long Techint Group experience, while the controlling shareholder provides continuity and industrial expertise. Related-party structure and minority interests require close review. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 12% and adjusted EBITDA fell 24%, but Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 48% year over year to $479 million as steel prices and margins improved. | High |
| Valuation | At $44.30, TX trades near 15.22x TTM EPS, 0.71x book value, and 0.56x sales, with a calculated dividend yield near 4.97%. TTM free cash flow is negative during the expansion cycle. | High |
| Technical trend | The price is above the 200-day average near $40.89 but below the 50-day average near $45.89. RSI near 47.18 indicates neutral momentum rather than a confirmed breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include steel overcapacity, trade actions, regional recession, iron ore and coal costs, currency swings, energy supply, Usiminas litigation, project delays, and negative free cash flow. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the annual report, Q1 release, and third-party financial data align on the main figures. Forecast confidence is lower because the earnings cycle is driven by prices and policy. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The setup is medium certainty. The balance sheet and operating recovery help, but the margin of safety depends on normalized steel profitability and lower capital spending. | Medium |
TX AI stock forecast
The TX AI stock forecast uses the July 10 close of $44.30 and TTM EPS of $2.91. The audited three-year model used 15%, 8%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with 18x, 14x, and 9x exit multiples. It produced reference values of about $79.7, $51.3, and $19.1 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promises or personalized targets.
$65 to $85 over 3 years
More likely if Mexico and Brazil demand improves, trade measures reduce unfair imports, steel prices hold, Pesquería ramps on schedule, capex falls after the current investment cycle, and EPS compounds near 15% with a premium cyclical multiple.
$45 to $58 over 3 years
More likely if shipments recover gradually, margins normalize near recent levels, 2026 revenue grows near the analyst consensus range, the new Mexican facilities execute, and investors value TX near 14x normalized earnings.
$18 to $28 over 3 years
More likely if steel overcapacity returns, demand weakens in Mexico or Argentina, import pressure persists, project spending stays high, Usiminas produces further charges, or EPS declines near 10% with a single-digit multiple.
TX AI technical analysis
TX AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close of $44.30 was above the StockAnalysis 200-day moving average near $40.89 but below the 50-day average near $45.89. RSI near 47.18 and average volume near 497,324 shares point to neutral momentum. Price data is time-sensitive and should be refreshed before any decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $44.30 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported the July 10 market close. This quote can change after the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $42 to $43 | Recent July 6 to July 9 closes clustered in this area. A hold would preserve the short-term recovery structure. |
| Deeper support | $40 to $41 | This band contains the 200-day moving average near $40.89 and is the main long-term trend checkpoint in the current dataset. |
| Near resistance | $45.89 | The 50-day moving average is the first recovery test above the July 10 close. |
| Higher resistance | $49 to $52 | June trading highs and the 52-week high near $51.73 define the next major supply area. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $45.89 and 200-day $40.89 | The price above the 200-day average supports the longer trend, but the lower position versus the 50-day average shows incomplete recovery. |
| Momentum | RSI 47.18, neutral | RSI near 50 does not show an overbought or oversold condition. Direction remains dependent on new company and market information. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 497,324 shares | A move above $45.89 is more credible if volume expands above this reference. A high-volume breakdown would weaken the setup. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.21 | The beta above 1 suggests greater market sensitivity, while steel prices, currencies, and policy can create additional company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $40.89 | A decisive break below the 200-day average damages the longer-term constructive framework, especially if accompanied by weaker margins or guidance. |
TX AI trading strategy
The TX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to steel shipments, realized prices, adjusted EBITDA margin, Pesquería milestones, Usiminas performance, capex, cash flow, and trade policy.
Look for TX to reclaim and hold the $45.89 50-day average with volume above the 497,324-share reference while Q2 results confirm higher shipments, better margins, and progress in Mexico.
Reduce confidence after a sustained close below $42, especially if steel prices, shipments, or regional demand weaken at the same time.
If TX tests the $40.89 to $43 area without a new thesis break, compare the quote with normalized EBITDA, net cash, capex completion, dividend coverage, and the durability of Q1 margin gains.
Do not assume a lower quote is cheap if steel prices are falling, free cash flow remains negative, or Usiminas and project costs create new charges.
Track steel and mining shipments, revenue per ton, raw material costs, regional imports, Mexico and Brazil trade measures, Pesquería start-up, Usiminas results, capex, net cash, dividends, and currency effects.
Lower setup confidence if EBITDA improves only through temporary pricing while volumes, cash conversion, or balance-sheet flexibility deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Ternium turns iron ore, slabs, energy, and industrial know-how into flat and long steel products for construction, automotive, appliances, machinery, infrastructure, and other industrial customers. It also sells iron ore through its mining segment. Customers pay for reliable regional supply, product specifications, delivery, and technical support, but the company remains exposed to commodity prices and industrial cycles.
The moat is based on scale, integrated steelmaking, regional production, customer qualification, logistics, and the ability to supply higher-value products. Ternium controls the Usiminas group and is expanding its Pesquería center with new downstream facilities and a steel shop. The moat is meaningful but not absolute because steel is globally traded and excess capacity can compress margins.
The thesis can fail if steel overcapacity increases, trade barriers shift, imports bypass protection, construction and automotive demand weaken, raw material or energy costs rise, currencies move against reported earnings, Pesquería is delayed or over budget, or Usiminas litigation and tax issues create further charges. TTM free cash flow is negative because capex remains near the peak of the investment cycle.
Máximo Vedoya is CEO and has held senior Techint Group roles since 1992. Techint indirectly owned 65.03% of Ternium at the end of 2025, while Tenaris Investments held 11.46%, creating strong long-term control and industrial continuity. The tradeoff is concentrated control, related-party exposure, and substantial non-controlling interests at subsidiaries such as Usiminas.
Nearshoring, infrastructure spending, domestic steel protection, and lower-carbon production support Ternium’s long-term opportunity, especially in Mexico. The new electric-arc-furnace steel shop and direct reduced iron module are designed to improve regional integration and decarbonization options. The counterforce is global excess capacity, uneven demand, energy intensity, and the cost of the transition.
At $44.30, TX trades near 15.22x TTM EPS, 0.71x book value, and 0.56x sales, with a calculated 4.97% dividend yield. The low price-to-book ratio and net cash at year-end 2025 provide support, but negative TTM free cash flow and cyclical earnings reduce the margin of safety. The market needs evidence that 2026 margin recovery can survive lower steel prices and lower capex support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX close price | $44.30 at the July 10, 2026 close | StockAnalysis TX history and statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.70 billion, verified as $44.30 multiplied by 196.31 million ADS | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| ADS count | 196.31 million ADS, cross-checked against 1,963.08 million weighted average common shares in the Q1 2026 release divided by 10 | Ternium Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and profit | $15.609 billion consolidated revenue and $303 million consolidated net income; owners of the parent earned $425 million, the figure used for parent EPS | Ternium 2025 Form 20-F, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Parent net income cross-check | $425 million in 2025 owners of the parent net income, matching Macrotrends; this differs from $303 million consolidated net income because of minority interests | Ternium 2025 Form 20-F and Macrotrends TX net income | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue was $16.091 billion in FY2021 and $15.609 billion in FY2025; net income was $4.367 billion and $303 million; free cash flow was $2.154 billion and negative $187 million | Macrotrends, StockAnalysis TX financials, and Ternium filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $3.934 billion net sales, $479 million adjusted EBITDA, 12% adjusted EBITDA margin, $372 million net income, and $1.09 earnings per ADS | Ternium Q1 2026 results filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating drivers | Steel shipments were 3.709 million tons, down 4% year over year; mining shipments were 2.826 million tons, down 8% year over year; higher steel prices supported EBITDA | Ternium Q1 2026 results filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | At December 31, 2025, cash was $1.531 billion, other investments were $1.600 billion, debt was $2.4 billion, and reported net cash was $712 million | Ternium 2025 Form 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital allocation | FY2025 operating cash flow was $2.314 billion, capex was about $2.5 billion, and cash dividends paid were $530 million; the proposed 2025 annual dividend was $2.70 per ADS | Ternium 2025 Form 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | Máximo Vedoya is CEO; Techint indirectly owned 65.03% and Tenaris Investments held 11.46% of share capital at December 31, 2025 | Ternium corporate governance page and 2025 Form 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 15.22x TTM EPS, 0.71x book value, 0.56x sales, 4.97% calculated dividend yield, and negative $0.33 FCF per share | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis TX statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $45.89, 200-day moving average $40.89, RSI 47.18, beta 1.21, and 20-day average volume 497,324 shares | StockAnalysis TX statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Scenario calculation | Three-year reference outputs of $79.7 bull, $51.3 base, and $19.1 bear using exact decimal arithmetic | financial_rigor.py three-scenario using TTM EPS and selected assumptions | July 12, 2026 |
This TX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if steel prices, demand, tariffs, currencies, capex, policy, valuation, or market sentiment change.
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