Ternium S.A. research snapshot
TX AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Ternium S.A. as a cyclical steel and mining recovery that the market has already started to re-rate. TX closed at $49.24 on July 31, 2026, up about 50.8% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a market capitalization near $9.67 billion, re-verified as $49.24 times 196.31 million ADS, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The stock is now above both the 50-day moving average near $46.48 and the 200-day moving average near $41.73, after hitting a 52-week high of $51.73 in June 2026. Fundamentals support the move. Q1 2026, reported May 6, 2026, delivered net sales of $3.934 billion, flat year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $479 million up 48%, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12%, net income of $372 million, and earnings of $1.09 per ADS, and management guided adjusted EBITDA higher again in Q2 2026 on rising shipments in Mexico and Argentina. Analysts now rate the stock Buy with an average target of $53.42 across 13 firms, and the forward PE near 7.51 reflects a market that expects a sharp earnings recovery. The TX AI stock forecast is a scenario framework, not a precise price prediction, because steel prices, regional demand, trade policy, the Pesquería ramp, Usiminas execution, currencies, and the Q2 2026 report due August 4, 2026 can change the outcome. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$49.24
Market cap
$9.67 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Cyclical steel recovery with stronger momentum, now priced above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at a low forward multiple
Trend status
Bullish, above the 50-day moving average near $46.48 and the 200-day moving average near $41.73, with RSI near 66 approaching overbought
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ternium is one of Latin America largest flat and long steel producers and also mines iron ore, serving construction, automotive, appliance, machinery, infrastructure, and industrial customers across Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and the Southern Region, with TTM revenue near $15.61 billion. | High |
| Moat | Scale, integrated production, regional assets, customer relationships, Usiminas control, and the Pesquería expansion provide a useful moat. Steel prices and imported supply limit pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Máximo Vedoya has long Techint Group experience, while the controlling shareholder provides continuity and industrial expertise. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 48% year over year, capex is past its peak, and management guided adjusted EBITDA higher again in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales were $3.934 billion, flat year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $479 million up 48%, a 12% adjusted EBITDA margin, operating income of $290 million, net income of $372 million, and EPS of $1.09 per ADS, after FY2025 revenue fell 11.6% to $15.609 billion with net income of $425 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $49.24, TX trades near 16.92x TTM EPS, 7.51x forward earnings, 0.79x book value, and 0.62x sales, with a 4.47% dividend yield. TTM free cash flow remains negative during the expansion cycle. | High |
| Technical trend | TX closed at $49.24 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $46.48 and its 200-day moving average near $41.73, with RSI near 65.88 approaching overbought after a 50.81% 52-week gain and a June 2026 high of $51.73 overhead. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include steel overcapacity, imports, trade actions, uneven regional demand, iron ore and coal costs, currency swings, energy supply, Usiminas litigation and tax issues, project delays, negative TTM free cash flow, and the volatility around the Q2 2026 report scheduled for August 4, 2026. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the Q1 2026 release, the Form 20-F, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends align on the main figures. Forecast confidence is lower because the earnings cycle is driven by prices, policy, and an imminent earnings report. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The setup is medium certainty. The balance sheet, operating recovery, and low forward multiple help, but the margin of safety has narrowed after a 50% rally and depends on normalized steel profitability and lower capital spending. | Medium |
TX AI stock forecast
The TX AI stock forecast and the Ternium AI stock forecast use the July 31, 2026 close of $49.24 and TTM EPS of $2.91. The three-scenario model used 15%, 8%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with 18x, 14x, and 9x exit multiples over three years, producing reference values of about $79.7 bull, $51.3 base, and $19.1 bear before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promises or personalized targets.
$65 to $85 over 3 years
More likely if Mexico and Brazil demand recover, trade measures reduce unfair imports, steel prices hold, Pesquería ramps on schedule, capex falls after the current investment cycle, and EPS compounds near 15% with a premium cyclical multiple.
$46 to $58 over 3 years
More likely if shipments recover gradually, margins normalize near recent levels, 2026 revenue grows toward the analyst consensus near $17.34 billion, the new Mexican facilities execute, and investors value TX near 14x normalized earnings.
$15 to $27 over 3 years
More likely if steel overcapacity returns, demand weakens in Mexico or Argentina, import pressure persists, project spending stays high, Usiminas produces further charges, or EPS declines near 10% with a single-digit multiple.
TX AI technical analysis
TX AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close of $49.24 was above the 50-day moving average near $46.48 and the 200-day moving average near $41.73. RSI near 65.88 and a 20-day average volume near 646,402 shares point to a strong but stretched trend, with the 52-week high of $51.73 as the immediate resistance. Price data is time-sensitive and should be refreshed before any decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $49.24 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31 market close, up 0.26% on the day and about 50.81% over the trailing 52 weeks. This quote can change after the data cutoff. |
| Near support | $46 to $47.50 | The 50-day moving average near $46.48 and the July 22 to July 24 closes clustered around $46.25 to $47.30 form the first support zone. |
| Deeper support | $41.50 to $42.50 | This band contains the 200-day moving average near $41.73 and the late June and early July closes, and is the main long-term trend checkpoint in the current dataset. |
| Near resistance | $49.50 to $51.73 | The June 12 to June 15 highs near $50 to $51 and the 52-week high of $51.73 define the immediate supply area above the July 31 close. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $46.48 and 200-day $41.73 | The price above both moving averages supports the longer trend, and the gap between them is widening as the recovery matures. |
| Momentum | RSI near 65.88, approaching overbought | RSI is strong but approaching levels where short-term pullbacks become more likely, so chasing extended moves carries higher risk. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 646,402 shares | A move above $51.73 is more credible if volume expands above this reference. A high-volume breakdown below $46.48 would weaken the setup. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.15 | The beta above 1 suggests greater market sensitivity, while steel prices, currencies, the Q2 2026 report, and policy can create additional company-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $46.48 | A decisive break below the 50-day moving average would weaken the short-term trend, and a close below the 200-day moving average near $41.73 would damage the longer-term constructive framework. |
TX AI trading strategy
The TX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to steel shipments, realized prices, adjusted EBITDA margin, the Pesquería ramp, Usiminas performance, capex, cash flow, trade policy, and the August 4, 2026 earnings report.
Look for TX to hold above the $46.48 50-day moving average and to build volume on a move toward and through the $51.73 52-week high while Q2 2026 results confirm higher shipments, better margins, and progress at Pesquería.
Reduce confidence after a sustained close below the 50-day moving average near $46.48, especially if steel prices, shipments, or regional demand weaken at the same time.
If TX pulls back toward the $46 to $47.50 area or the $41.50 to $42.50 band without a new thesis break, compare the quote with normalized EBITDA, net cash, capex completion, dividend coverage, and the durability of Q1 margin gains.
Do not assume a lower quote is cheap if steel prices are falling, free cash flow stays negative, or Usiminas and project costs create new charges.
Track steel and mining shipments, revenue per ton, raw material costs, regional imports, Mexico and Brazil trade measures, Pesquería start-up, Usiminas results, capex, net cash, dividends, currency effects, and the Q2 2026 report and guidance.
Lower setup confidence if EBITDA improves only through temporary pricing while volumes, cash conversion, or balance-sheet flexibility deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Ternium turns iron ore, slabs, energy, and industrial know-how into flat and long steel products for construction, automotive, appliances, machinery, infrastructure, and other industrial customers. It also sells iron ore through its mining segment. Customers pay for reliable regional supply, product specifications, delivery, and technical support, but the company remains exposed to commodity prices and industrial cycles.
The moat is based on scale, integrated steelmaking, regional production, customer qualification, logistics, and the ability to supply higher-value products. Ternium controls the Usiminas group and is expanding its Pesquería center with new downstream facilities and a steel shop. The moat is meaningful but not absolute because steel is globally traded and excess capacity can compress margins.
The thesis can fail if steel overcapacity increases, trade barriers shift, imports bypass protection, construction and automotive demand weaken, raw material or energy costs rise, currencies move against reported earnings, Pesquería is delayed or over budget, Usiminas litigation and tax issues create further charges, or the Q2 2026 report disappoints. TTM free cash flow is still negative because capex remains near the peak of the investment cycle.
Máximo Vedoya is CEO and has held senior Techint Group roles since 1992. Techint indirectly owned 65.03% of Ternium at the end of 2025, while Tenaris Investments held 11.46%, creating strong long-term control and industrial continuity. The tradeoff is concentrated control, related-party exposure, and substantial non-controlling interests at subsidiaries such as Usiminas.
Nearshoring, infrastructure spending, domestic steel protection, and lower-carbon production support Ternium's long-term opportunity, especially in Mexico. The new electric-arc-furnace steel shop and direct reduced iron module are designed to improve regional integration and decarbonization options. The counterforce is global excess capacity, uneven demand, energy intensity, and the cost of the transition.
At $49.24, TX trades near 16.92x TTM EPS, 7.51x forward earnings, 0.79x book value, and 0.62x sales, with a 4.47% dividend yield. The low forward multiple and near net cash position provide support, but negative TTM free cash flow, cyclical earnings, and a 50% price rally reduce the margin of safety. The market needs evidence that the 2026 margin recovery can survive lower steel prices and that capex support will arrive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX close price | $49.24 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 0.26% on the day | StockAnalysis TX quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.67 billion, computed as $49.24 multiplied by 196.31 million ADS | StockAnalysis TX quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| ADS count | 196.31 million ADS, cross-checked against 1,963.08 million weighted average common shares in the Q1 2026 release divided by 10 | Ternium Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and profit | $15.609 billion revenue and $425 million net income attributable to owners of the parent in 2025, matching Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | Ternium 2025 Form 20-F, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income cross-check | $571 million TTM net income and $2.91 TTM EPS as of March 31, 2026 on the StockAnalysis statistics page, matching the Macrotrends 12-month figure of $0.571 billion; the StockAnalysis financials overview shows a different TTM net income attribution near $236 million, so this page uses the statistics page and Macrotrends figure as primary | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis TX statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue was $16.091 billion in FY2021 and $15.609 billion in FY2025; net income was $3.825 billion and $425 million; free cash flow was $2.154 billion and negative $187 million; TTM free cash flow is negative $65 million | Macrotrends, StockAnalysis TX financials, and Ternium filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $3.934 billion net sales, flat year over year, $479 million adjusted EBITDA up 48%, 12% adjusted EBITDA margin, $290 million operating income, $372 million net income, $213 million equity holders net income, and $1.09 earnings per ADS | Ternium Q1 2026 results filed with the SEC | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating drivers | Steel shipments were 3.709 million tons, down 4% year over year and flat sequentially; mining shipments were 2.826 million tons, down 8% year over year and down 16% sequentially on heavy rains in Brazil; higher realized steel prices drove the EBITDA improvement | Ternium Q1 2026 results filed with the SEC | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow | Cash from operations of $217 million, capital expenditures of $406 million, free cash flow of negative $189 million, and a $233 million working capital increase on higher receivables and inventory | Ternium Q1 2026 results filed with the SEC | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | Ternium reported a net cash position of $327 million at March 31, 2026, down from $712 million at December 31, 2025, using cash of $1.6 billion, other investments of $1.5 billion, and borrowings of $2.8 billion; StockAnalysis under S&P Global classification reports $3.142 billion in cash and short-term investments, $3.011 billion in total debt, and $131.62 million in net cash | Ternium Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Usiminas acquisition and Techgen | In Q1 2026 Ternium acquired 153.1 million ordinary shares of Usiminas from Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi for $315 million, and received $150 million from Techgen on full repayment of its loan; Q1 net income also included a $122 million deferred tax gain and a $48 million charge on the Usiminas litigation provision | Ternium Q1 2026 earnings release and call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital allocation and outlook | Management expects adjusted EBITDA to rise in Q2 2026 on higher shipments in Mexico and Argentina and higher revenue per ton, capex of about $2.5 billion in 2025 is expected to fall this year and to about $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion in 2027, and the cold rolling mill and galvanizing line at Pesquería should run near full capacity by October 2026 with the new steel shop starting by year-end | Ternium Q1 2026 earnings release and call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | Máximo Vedoya is CEO; Techint indirectly owned 65.03% and Tenaris Investments held 11.46% of share capital at December 31, 2025 | Ternium corporate governance page and 2025 Form 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $2.20 per ADS with a 4.47% yield, paid semi-annually, ex-dividend May 14, 2026 with a $1.30 payment on May 20, 2026; the board revised the FY2025 proposal down in April 2026 in response to global uncertainty, and the payout ratio is near 75.6% | StockAnalysis TX dividends and Ternium press releases | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 16.92x TTM EPS, 7.51x forward PE, 0.62x sales, 0.79x book value, EV/EBITDA 5.78, EV/EBIT 11.04, P/OCF 4.16, and negative free cash flow per share | StockAnalysis TX statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $53.42 across 13 analysts, low $40 and high $62, median $55, and a next earnings date of August 4, 2026 after market close | StockAnalysis TX forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 13 analysts | StockAnalysis TX forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Wells Fargo upgraded to Equal Weight with $43 to $45 on July 9, JPMorgan raised to $61 on June 23, Itau Unibanco upgraded to Buy with $59, Goldman Sachs raised to $57 from $49, and Bradesco upgraded to Buy with $62 | StockAnalysis TX forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $17.34 billion up 11.1%, FY2027 revenue of $18.12 billion, FY2026 operating income of $1.65 billion, FY2026 net income of $1.07 billion, and FY2026 free cash flow of negative $468.50 million | StockAnalysis TX forecast financial forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 613,626 shares short, 1.25% of shares outstanding, about 1.24 days to cover, and a float of 42.96 million ADS | StockAnalysis TX statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $46.48, 200-day moving average $41.73, RSI 65.88, beta 1.15, 20-day average volume 646,402 shares, and a 52-week range of $30.44 to $51.73 | StockAnalysis TX statistics and price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Scenario calculation | Three-year reference outputs of $79.7 bull, $51.3 base, and $19.1 bear using exact decimal arithmetic on TTM EPS of $2.91 with 15%, 8%, and negative 10% growth and 18x, 14x, and 9x exit multiples | Exact decimal scenario model using Ternium TTM EPS and selected assumptions | August 3, 2026 |
This TX AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff and can be wrong if steel prices, demand, tariffs, currencies, capex, policy, the Q2 2026 report, valuation, or market sentiment change.
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