TotalEnergies SE research snapshot
TTE AI stock analysis currently reads TotalEnergies as a diversified integrated energy company with oil and gas production, LNG, refining, marketing, trading, renewables, and power assets. The July 10, 2026 setup is not a precise buy signal: TTE offers a roughly 5% indicated dividend yield and trades near 11.6x TTM earnings, but recent earnings benefited from volatile energy markets while the share price sits below its 50-day average. The TTE AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a promised price target, and focuses on oil and gas prices, LNG and trading results, refining margins, project execution, debt, buybacks, and the transition to power.
Current price
$78.23
Market cap
$174.73 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Diversified integrated energy major with a high cash return profile, broad LNG and power exposure, and commodity-cycle risk
Trend status
Weak short-term trend, below the 50-day average and near the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TotalEnergies sells energy and related services through upstream oil and gas, LNG, refining and chemicals, marketing, trading, renewables, and electricity. | High |
| Moat | Global scale, resource access, LNG trading and marketing, integrated infrastructure, technical capability, customer channels, and balance-sheet access provide advantages, though commodity prices constrain pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Patrick Pouyanne has pursued a multi-energy portfolio, dividends, buybacks, LNG growth, and power integration. The key test is maintaining disciplined returns while funding large projects and lowering leverage through the cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 TotalEnergies-share net income was about $13.2 billion. In Q1 2026, adjusted net income was $5.4 billion and IFRS net income was $5.8 billion as higher energy prices and trading lifted results. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 9 close of $78.23, TTE screens near 11.6x TTM EPS, 1.36x book value, 13.92x free cash flow per share, and a 5.04% indicated dividend yield using source-backed inputs. | High |
| Technical trend | TTE is below the 50-day average near $86.24 and only modestly above the 200-day average near $75.55, leaving the chart weak short term and close to a long-term trend decision point. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower oil and gas prices, weaker LNG or refining margins, Middle East disruptions, project delays, higher net debt, regulation, climate litigation, currency effects, and weak returns from power investments. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because audited and market data are available. Return confidence is lower because the business and the ADR can reprice quickly with commodities, currencies, and geopolitics. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TTE has diversified assets and shareholder returns, but the current price still needs sustained cash generation and capital discipline to offset cycle and transition risk. | Medium |
TTE AI stock forecast
The TTE AI stock forecast is scenario-based because a low headline multiple can reflect both cash-generation potential and commodity-cycle risk. Using the $78.23 price reference, TTM EPS of $6.74, and a three-year audited mechanical model, the outputs are about $38 in a bear case, $76 in a base case, and $110 in a bullish case before dividends. These are model outputs, not targets, and they are widened below to account for energy-price and execution uncertainty.
$95 to $115 before dividends
More likely if oil and gas prices remain supportive, LNG and trading capture volatility without excess risk, refining margins hold up, production grows, Mozambique LNG advances, power assets improve returns, and buybacks continue without stretching the balance sheet.
$65 to $85 before dividends
More likely if earnings normalize from the Q1 2026 commodity backdrop, dividends and buybacks remain covered, net debt stays manageable, and the market applies a low-teens or lower multiple to cyclical earnings.
$35 to $55 before dividends
More likely if crude and gas prices fall, refining and trading contributions weaken, project costs rise, cash flow is absorbed by working capital or capex, policy pressure increases, or investors price the stock on lower-cycle earnings.
TTE AI technical analysis
TTE AI technical analysis is weak to neutral as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 9 close of $78.23, a 50-day moving average near $86.24, a 200-day moving average near $75.55, RSI near 37.57, and 20-day average volume near 1.66 million shares. The stock is near long-term support but has not regained short-term trend confirmation.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $78.23 | StockAnalysis listed the July 9, 2026 close at $78.23. The July 10 intraday quote was $77.97 when reviewed. |
| Immediate support | $75 to $76 | This area brackets the 200-day moving average near $75.55 and is the first long-term trend reference. |
| Deeper support | $57 to $60 | This range is near the lower part of the stated 52-week range, whose low was $57.48. |
| Near resistance | $85 to $87 | The 50-day moving average near $86.24 is the first level bulls need to reclaim. |
| Upper resistance | $92 to $94 | This zone approaches the upper portion of the 52-week range, whose high was $94.17. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $86.24, 200-day near $75.55 | Holding the 200-day area can stabilize the larger chart, while a reclaim of the 50-day average would improve short-term momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI near 37.57 | Momentum is soft and closer to oversold conditions, but RSI alone does not confirm a reversal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.66 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because TTE can react to commodity moves, earnings, exchange-rate changes, and geopolitical headlines. |
| Volatility | Watch July 23, 2026 earnings and energy prices | The next results update, commodity prices, LNG and trading commentary, project milestones, and buyback guidance can move the ADR. |
| Invalidation | Close below $75, then below $57 | A sustained break below the 200-day area weakens the support thesis. A break below the 52-week low would challenge the broader range. |
TTE AI trading strategy
The TTE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links chart levels with Brent and gas prices, LNG and trading results, refining margins, production, project milestones, net debt, dividends, buybacks, and power returns.
Watch for TTE to hold the $75 to $76 support zone and reclaim $85 to $87 with stronger relative momentum, supportive commodity prices, and results that confirm cash flow, disciplined capex, and continued shareholder returns.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $75 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker cash flow, higher leverage, or a lower capacity for dividends and buybacks.
If TTE retests the $57 to $60 area without a deterioration in dividend coverage, asset quality, or balance-sheet resilience, compare the lower price with normalized earnings, net debt, and project-return assumptions.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if it follows a structural fall in cash generation, a permanent capital-return reset, or evidence that large projects and power investments cannot earn adequate returns.
Track Brent and European gas prices, LNG volumes and trading, refining margins, upstream production, Mozambique LNG, renewable capacity and power cash flow, net debt, buybacks, dividends, capex, and regulatory developments.
Position sizing should reflect that TotalEnergies is a diversified cyclical energy company, not a bond substitute or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TotalEnergies because households, transport, industry, utilities, and governments need energy supply, fuels, gas, LNG, power, and related services. The company turns resource access, infrastructure, trading, refining, customer channels, and project expertise into cash flow across energy cycles.
TotalEnergies has global scale, diversified resources, integrated LNG and trading capabilities, refining and marketing infrastructure, technical expertise, customer access, and capital-market access. Its integrated model can capture value across the chain, but commodity pricing makes returns more cyclical than those of a business with direct end-market pricing power.
The thesis fails if oil and gas prices decline, trading or refining profits normalize sharply, large projects run late or over budget, net debt rises, political and security disruptions impair production, regulation or climate litigation raises costs, or power investments dilute returns.
Patrick Pouyanne has built a strategy around integrated oil and gas, LNG, power, capital returns, and active portfolio management. The current test is whether management can preserve return discipline while funding projects, growing power, managing net debt, and maintaining dividends and buybacks across a weaker energy cycle.
Oil and gas remain important to global energy security, while LNG, electrification, renewables, and flexible power are long-term investment themes. TotalEnergies is exposed to both sides of that transition, but the path depends on commodity prices, permitting, power-market economics, policy, and project execution.
At $78.23, TTE looks inexpensive on TTM multiples and carries a meaningful indicated yield, but trailing earnings include a stronger Q1 commodity environment. Margin of safety improves if normalized cash flow covers investment needs and shareholder returns, or if the price better reflects conservative energy-price and project-return assumptions.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTE quote reference | $78.23 close on July 9, 2026, with a $77.97 intraday quote on July 10 when reviewed | StockAnalysis TTE overview and price history | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $174.73 billion reported and $174.69 billion calculated from $78.23 x 2.233 billion ADR-equivalent shares, a 0.02% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis TTE statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.13 billion shares in StockAnalysis and 2.165 billion diluted shares at March 31, 2026 in the company release, a 0.81% cross-check variance | StockAnalysis TTE statistics and TotalEnergies Q1 2026 results | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales and net income | $201.20 billion reported sales in the company factbook and $182.34 billion standardized revenue in StockAnalysis use different scopes. TotalEnergies-share net income was $13.217 billion in the 2025 20-F and $13.127 billion in StockAnalysis, a 0.34% variance. | TotalEnergies 2025 Factbook and 2025 20-F | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $5.394 billion adjusted net income, $5.810 billion IFRS net income, $8.576 billion CFFO, 2.553 million barrels of oil equivalent per day production, and $0.90 first interim dividend per share | TotalEnergies Q1 2026 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $25.693 billion cash and cash equivalents, $23.049 billion net debt, and 15.5% gearing at March 31, 2026. StockAnalysis listed $29.87 billion cash on a TTM basis, so the 7.52% difference is retained as a timing and definition gap. | TotalEnergies Q1 2026 results and StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $6.74, book value per share $57.44, FCF per share $5.62, annual dividend $3.94, PE 11.58x, PB 1.40x, and P/FCF 14.58x as listed by the market-data provider | StockAnalysis TTE statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $86.24, 200-day moving average $75.55, RSI 37.57, 20-day average volume 1.66 million shares, and 52-week range $57.48 to $94.17 | StockAnalysis TTE statistics | July 10, 2026 |
This TTE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell TotalEnergies stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 10, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, commodity-price, balance-sheet, project, legal, regulatory, or geopolitical information changes.
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