TotalEnergies SE research snapshot
TTE AI stock analysis currently reads TotalEnergies as a diversified integrated energy company with oil and gas production, LNG, refining, marketing, trading, renewables, and power assets. The August 2, 2026 setup is not a precise buy signal: TTE closed at $87.86 on July 31, 2026, carries a $195.40 billion market cap, trades near 10.95x trailing earnings, and offers a 4.53% indicated dividend yield, but the trailing multiple now includes a strong Q2 2026 helped by elevated oil prices and refining margins. The TTE AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a promised price target, and focuses on oil and gas prices, LNG and trading results, refining margins, Middle East disruptions, project execution, net debt, buybacks, dividends, and the transition to power.
Current price
$87.86
Market cap
$195.40 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Diversified integrated energy major with a stronger 2026 cash-flow and refining backdrop, higher shareholder returns, and elevated commodity-cycle, Middle East, and transition risk
Trend status
Constructive short-term trend, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a July rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TotalEnergies sells energy and related services through upstream oil and gas, LNG, refining and chemicals, marketing, trading, renewables, and electricity, with Q2 2026 cash flow of $9.8 billion and adjusted net income near $6 billion. | High |
| Moat | Global scale, resource access, LNG trading and marketing, integrated infrastructure, technical capability, customer channels, and balance-sheet access provide advantages, though commodity prices constrain pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Patrick Pouyanné has pursued a multi-energy portfolio, dividends, buybacks, LNG growth, and power integration. Q2 2026 showed a 5.9% interim dividend increase, higher buybacks, and lower net debt, while the key test remains capital discipline through the cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM net income was $17.84 billion on $196.38 billion of revenue, with EPS of $8.02. Q2 2026 adjusted net income was about $6 billion, up nearly 15% quarter over quarter, helped by elevated oil prices and strong refining margins. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31 close of $87.86, TTE screens near 10.95x TTM EPS, 1.49x book value, 11.22x free cash flow per share, and a 4.53% indicated dividend yield using source-backed inputs. | High |
| Technical trend | TTE is above the 50-day average near $83.86 and the 200-day average near $77.28, with RSI near 64, leaving the chart constructive after a rally from below $80 in early July. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower oil and gas prices, Middle East and Strait of Hormuz disruption, weaker LNG or refining margins, project delays, higher net debt, regulation, climate litigation, currency effects, and weak returns from power investments. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because audited, market, and earnings-call data are available. Return confidence is lower because the business and the ADR can reprice quickly with commodities, currencies, geopolitics, and the Middle East conflict. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TTE has diversified assets, stronger 2026 cash flow, and rising shareholder returns, but the stock has rallied and the current price still needs sustained cash generation and capital discipline to offset cycle, conflict, and transition risk. | Medium |
TTE AI stock forecast
The TTE AI stock forecast is scenario-based because a low headline multiple can now reflect both cash-generation strength and commodity-cycle peak earnings. Using the $87.86 price reference, TTM EPS of $8.02, and a three-year mechanical model, the outputs are about $41 in a bear case, $96 in a base case, and $146 in a bullish case before dividends. These are model outputs, not targets, and they are widened below to account for energy-price, Middle East, and execution uncertainty.
$120 to $150 before dividends
More likely if oil prices stay elevated, LNG and trading results recover, refining margins remain strong, production grows, Middle East disruption stays contained, Mozambique LNG advances, power assets improve returns, and buybacks continue without stretching the balance sheet.
$85 to $110 before dividends
More likely if earnings normalize from the elevated Q2 2026 commodity backdrop, dividends and buybacks remain covered, net debt stays manageable, the Middle East conflict is disruptive but contained, and the market applies a low-teens multiple to cyclical earnings.
$40 to $62 before dividends
More likely if crude and gas prices fall, Middle East disruption escalates, refining and trading contributions weaken, project costs rise, cash flow is absorbed by working capital or capex, policy pressure increases, or investors price the stock on lower-cycle earnings.
TTE AI technical analysis
TTE AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close of $87.86, a 50-day moving average near $83.86, a 200-day moving average near $77.28, RSI near 64, and 20-day average volume near 1.66 million shares. The stock is above both moving averages and near the upper part of its 52-week range, so momentum is positive but the setup is less of a bargain entry than in early July.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $87.86 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $87.86, up 0.95% on the day. The after-hours quote was $88.74 when reviewed. |
| Immediate support | $83 to $85 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $83.86 and the late-July consolidation zone. |
| Deeper support | $77 to $79 | This range brackets the 200-day moving average near $77.28 and the early-July breakout area. |
| Near resistance | $90 to $92.50 | This zone approaches the June and May highs near $90.17 and $92.54 before the stock pulled back. |
| Upper resistance | $94.17 | This is the upper boundary of the stated 52-week range and a key level for a sustained breakout. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $83.86, 200-day near $77.28 | Holding above both averages supports the constructive trend, while a loss of the 50-day would signal a pause and a loss of the 200-day would challenge the rally. |
| Momentum | RSI near 64 | Momentum is positive and approaching overbought territory, so the setup favors trend continuation but not aggressive fresh chasing at resistance. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.66 million shares | Volume was elevated near the July 23 earnings date. Volume confirmation matters because TTE can react to commodity moves, Middle East headlines, and currency changes. |
| Volatility | Watch oil and gas prices, Middle East news, and the September 28, 2026 Capital Markets Day | The next results update, the Capital Markets Day, LNG and trading commentary, project milestones, and buyback guidance can move the ADR. |
| Invalidation | Close below $83, then below $77 | A sustained break below the 50-day area signals a pause. A break below the 200-day area near $77 would weaken the constructive trend, and a break below the 52-week low near $57.48 would challenge the broader range. |
TTE AI trading strategy
The TTE AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links chart levels with Brent and gas prices, Middle East developments, LNG and trading results, refining margins, production, project milestones, net debt, dividends, buybacks, and power returns.
Watch for TTE to hold above the $83 to $85 support zone and clear $90 to $92.50 on volume with supportive commodity prices, contained Middle East risk, and results that confirm cash flow, disciplined capex, and continued shareholder returns.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $83 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker cash flow, higher leverage, or a lower capacity for dividends and buybacks.
If TTE retests the $77 to $79 area without a deterioration in dividend coverage, asset quality, or balance-sheet resilience, compare the lower price with normalized earnings, net debt, and project-return assumptions.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if it follows a structural fall in cash generation, a permanent capital-return reset, an escalation of the Middle East conflict, or evidence that large projects and power investments cannot earn adequate returns.
Track Brent and European gas prices, Middle East and Strait of Hormuz developments, LNG volumes and trading, refining margins, upstream production, Mozambique LNG, renewable capacity and power cash flow, net debt, buybacks, dividends, capex, and regulatory developments.
Position sizing should reflect that TotalEnergies is a diversified cyclical energy company exposed to geopolitical disruption, not a bond substitute or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TotalEnergies because households, transport, industry, utilities, and governments need energy supply, fuels, gas, LNG, power, and related services. The company turns resource access, infrastructure, trading, refining, customer channels, and project expertise into cash flow across energy cycles.
TotalEnergies has global scale, diversified resources, integrated LNG and trading capabilities, refining and marketing infrastructure, technical expertise, customer access, and capital-market access. Its integrated model can capture value across the chain, but commodity pricing makes returns more cyclical than those of a business with direct end-market pricing power.
The thesis fails if oil and gas prices decline from the elevated 2026 backdrop, Middle East or Strait of Hormuz disruption escalates, trading or refining profits normalize sharply, large projects run late or over budget, net debt rises, political and security disruptions impair production, regulation or climate litigation raises costs, or power investments dilute returns.
Patrick Pouyanné has built a strategy around integrated oil and gas, LNG, power, capital returns, and active portfolio management. Q2 2026 showed a higher interim dividend, larger buybacks, and lower net debt, and the current test is whether management can preserve return discipline while funding projects, growing power, and navigating Middle East risk.
Oil and gas remain important to global energy security, while LNG, electrification, renewables, and flexible power are long-term investment themes. TotalEnergies is exposed to both sides of that transition, but the path depends on commodity prices, the Middle East conflict, permitting, power-market economics, policy, and project execution.
At $87.86, TTE screens inexpensive on TTM multiples and carries a meaningful indicated yield, but trailing earnings include a strong Q2 commodity and refining environment, and the stock has rallied about 12% since early July. Margin of safety improves if normalized cash flow covers investment needs and shareholder returns, or if the price better reflects conservative energy-price and project-return assumptions.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTE quote reference | $87.86 close on July 31, 2026, with an $88.74 after-hours quote when reviewed | StockAnalysis TTE overview and price history | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $195.40 billion reported and $195.05 billion calculated from $87.86 x 2.22 billion shares, a 0.18% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis TTE statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.22 billion shares, down 4.09% year over year, with institutions owning 44.26% and insiders 0.03% | StockAnalysis TTE statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financial results | $196.38 billion revenue, $17.84 billion net income, $8.02 EPS, $33.04 billion operating cash flow, and $17.42 billion free cash flow for the period ended June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis TTE statistics and financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | About $9.8 billion cash flow, about $6 billion adjusted net income, production up more than 4% year over year excluding Middle East impact, a 5.9% higher interim dividend to EUR 0.90 per share, and $1.5 billion of buybacks in both Q2 and the approved Q3 program | TotalEnergies Q2 2026 earnings call highlights via MarketBeat | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $31.72 billion cash and cash equivalents, $62.92 billion total debt, and $31.20 billion net debt at June 30, 2026. TotalEnergies reported gearing of 13.1% after reducing net debt by about $3.3 billion in Q2 2026. | StockAnalysis TTE statistics and TotalEnergies Q2 2026 earnings call highlights | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $8.02, book value per share $57.73, FCF per share $7.83, annual dividend $3.98, PE 10.95x, PB 1.49x, and P/FCF 11.22x as listed by the market-data provider | StockAnalysis TTE statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy with an average price target of $95.00, a low of $81, a median of $94, and a high of $107 across 10 analysts | StockAnalysis TTE forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $83.86, 200-day moving average $77.28, RSI 64.05, 20-day average volume 1.66 million shares, beta 0.05, and 52-week range $57.48 to $94.17 | StockAnalysis TTE statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This TTE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell TotalEnergies stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, commodity-price, Middle East, balance-sheet, project, legal, regulatory, or geopolitical information changes.
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