The Toro Company research snapshot
TTC AI stock analysis currently reads The Toro Company as a durable outdoor equipment and irrigation business with a strong Professional segment, recognizable brands, broad dealer coverage, and improving fiscal 2026 execution. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, TTC closed at $93.33 on July 10 with market capitalization near $8.89 billion. Fiscal 2026 second-quarter sales rose 8.1% and adjusted EPS rose 12.7%, while management raised full-year sales growth guidance to 4.0% to 6.5% and adjusted EPS guidance to $4.50 to $4.62. The TTC AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because Residential demand, weather, tariffs, input costs, acquisition integration, and valuation can change the outcome. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$93.33 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$8.89 billion verified from 95.23 million shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality professional equipment franchise with residential and execution risk
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, above 50-day and 200-day averages with neutral momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Toro sells mission-critical turf, irrigation, underground construction, snow, landscape, and outdoor power equipment through brands and channels that support repeat professional use. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Toro and other trusted brands, dealer relationships, product breadth, service support, engineering know-how, and scale. Residential switching costs are lower. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Richard Olson has combined focused acquisitions, AMP productivity savings, dividends, and buybacks, but Tornado integration and the balance-sheet impact need monitoring. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 1.6% and GAAP EPS fell to $3.17, but Q2 FY2026 sales rose 8.1%, adjusted EPS rose 12.7%, and first-half sales rose 6.4%. | High |
| Valuation | At $93.33, TTC is near 26.97x TTM EPS and 11.71x TTM free cash flow. The forward multiple is lower if the $4.50 to $4.62 adjusted EPS guidance is achieved. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day average near $92.52 and 200-day average near $86.83, but RSI near 48.65 indicates neutral momentum rather than a confirmed breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include weather, Residential demand, tariffs, commodities, supply chain disruption, customer inventory, product quality, acquisition goodwill, debt, and lower market multiples. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and third-party data agree on the main figures. Forecast confidence is lower because cyclical demand and valuation drive the range. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The setup is medium certainty. Operational momentum is improving, but the margin of safety depends on sustained Professional growth and a successful Residential recovery. | Medium |
TTC AI stock forecast
The TTC AI stock forecast uses the July 10 close of $93.33 and TTM EPS of $3.46. The audited three-year model used 12%, 8%, and negative 3% annual EPS growth with 28x, 22x, and 15x exit multiples. It produced reference values of about $136.1, $95.9, and $47.4 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promises or personalized targets.
$125 to $145 over 3 years
More likely if Professional demand stays strong in underground construction, golf, grounds, and landscape, AMP savings reach the $125 million run-rate goal, Tornado integrates well, Residential margins recover, and investors keep a premium multiple near the high-20s.
$90 to $105 over 3 years
More likely if sales grow near the mid-single digits, Professional remains the main profit engine, Residential stabilizes, adjusted EPS compounds near 8%, and the market values TTC near 22x earnings.
$45 to $55 over 3 years
More likely if Residential demand remains weak, weather disrupts seasonal categories, tariffs and materials offset pricing, Tornado or other acquisitions disappoint, or the market re-rates TTC toward a mid-teens industrial multiple.
TTC AI technical analysis
TTC AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The July 10 close of $93.33 was above the StockAnalysis 50-day moving average near $92.52 and 200-day average near $86.83. RSI near 48.65 and a 20-day average volume near 808,761 shares show a market that has not confirmed strong momentum yet.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $93.33 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported the July 10 market close. Price data is time-sensitive and should be refreshed before any decision. |
| Near support | $92 to $93 | This band contains the 50-day moving average near $92.52 and should hold for the short-term constructive setup. |
| Deeper support | $86 to $88 | The 200-day moving average near $86.83 is the main long-term trend checkpoint in the current dataset. |
| Near resistance | $97 to $100 | The July 6 close near $97.06 and the round-number $100 area are the first recovery tests above the current price. |
| Higher resistance | $105 to $106 | The 52-week high near $105.19 is the next major supply reference if the stock reclaims the first resistance band. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $92.52 and 200-day $86.83 | A price above both averages supports the longer trend, but the averages are not a substitute for fundamental confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI 48.65, neutral | RSI near 50 does not show an overbought or oversold condition and leaves direction dependent on new information. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 808,761 shares | A breakout above $97 to $100 is more credible if volume expands above this reference, while a high-volume breakdown would weaken the setup. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.69 | The lower beta suggests less market sensitivity in the reference data, but earnings, guidance, and seasonal demand can still move TTC sharply. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $92, then $86.83 | A close below the 50-day average weakens the near-term framework. A decisive break below the 200-day average damages the longer-term trend case. |
TTC AI trading strategy
The TTC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to Professional bookings, Residential demand, gross margin, AMP savings, Tornado integration, cash flow, debt, and shareholder returns.
Look for TTC to hold the $92 to $93 support band and reclaim $97 to $100 with improving volume, while the company maintains its raised fiscal 2026 sales and adjusted EPS guidance.
Reduce confidence after a sustained close below $92, especially if the move is accompanied by weaker Professional demand, lower guidance, or margin pressure.
If TTC tests the $86 to $92 area without a new thesis break, compare the price with updated EPS, free cash flow, debt, Residential margins, and the evidence that Professional growth is durable.
Do not assume a lower quote is cheap if weather, tariffs, channel inventory, or an acquisition impairment is weakening the underlying earnings power.
Track Professional and Residential sales, segment EBIT margins, AMP savings, Tornado sales and synergies, field inventory, pricing, material costs, free cash flow, debt, dividends, and repurchases.
Lower setup confidence if earnings improve only through cost savings while revenue quality, working capital, or cash conversion deteriorates.
Investment research summary
Toro helps golf courses, sports fields, landscapers, contractors, municipalities, agricultural users, homeowners, and other outdoor customers maintain land, manage water, clear snow, and build underground infrastructure. Customers pay for reliable equipment, product performance, dealer support, replacement parts, and solutions that reduce downtime.
Toro has a meaningful but not unbreakable moat from the Toro, Ditch Witch, Ventrac, BOSS, Irritrol, and other brands, more than 150 distributors, dealer relationships, product breadth, engineering, and post-sale service. The Professional segment has stronger customer and channel stickiness than Residential products, where barriers to entry are lower.
The thesis can fail if weather reduces seasonal demand, Residential products remain weak, channel customers cut inventories, tariffs and materials erase price realization, supply disruptions stop production, product quality creates claims, or Tornado and other acquisitions create integration costs or goodwill impairment.
Richard Olson has served as CEO since 2016. Management returned $441.1 million to shareholders in fiscal 2025 and $360.9 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, while AMP had delivered $106.8 million of cumulative savings by the second quarter. The key test is whether buybacks, productivity, and acquisitions create per-share value without weakening financial flexibility.
Long-term demand drivers include water efficiency, smart-connected and autonomous equipment, golf and sports field maintenance, infrastructure replacement, landscape services, alternative power, and outdoor labor productivity. These trends help the opportunity set, but the business remains exposed to weather, construction cycles, consumer confidence, and dealer inventory.
At about 26.97x TTM EPS and 11.71x TTM free cash flow, TTC is not priced like a distressed manufacturer. The market is giving credit for the $4.50 to $4.62 adjusted EPS outlook, Professional recovery, and capital returns. The margin of safety narrows if Residential weakness returns or the earnings multiple falls toward the bearish scenario.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTC close price | $93.33 at the July 10, 2026 close | StockAnalysis TTC statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.89 billion, verified as $93.33 multiplied by 95.23 million shares | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 95.23 million in current market data, compared with 97.888 million issued and outstanding at October 31, 2025 | StockAnalysis statistics and Toro fiscal 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue and net income | $4.510 billion revenue and $316.1 million net income, cross-validated within 1% against StockAnalysis | Toro fiscal 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue rose from $3.960 billion in FY2021 to $4.510 billion in FY2025, while net income moved from $409.9 million to $316.1 million and free cash flow rose to $578.3 million in FY2025 | StockAnalysis TTC financials, cross-checked with Toro filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 second-quarter results | $1.425 billion sales, up 8.1%, $145.4 million net income, and $1.50 reported diluted EPS; adjusted EPS was $1.60 | The Toro Company fiscal 2026 second-quarter release | July 12, 2026 |
| Segment mix and first-half trend | Professional was $1.931 billion in first-half sales, up 8.3%; Residential was $516.4 million, down 0.4% | Toro fiscal 2026 second-quarter Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Total company sales growth of 4.0% to 6.5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.50 to $4.62 after the Q2 increase | The Toro Company fiscal 2026 second-quarter release | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | Richard M. Olson has been CEO since 2016; current market data lists insider ownership at 0.32% and institutional ownership at 93.90% | Toro fiscal 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | $180.4 million cash, $1.017 billion total debt, and $983.3 million available liquidity as of May 1, 2026 | Toro fiscal 2026 second-quarter Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 26.97x TTM EPS, 1.91x sales, 2.11x EV to sales, 6.51x book value, 11.71x free cash flow, and 1.67% dividend yield; PEG was not available | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis TTC statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $92.52, 200-day moving average $86.83, RSI 48.65, beta 0.69, and 20-day average volume 808,761 shares | StockAnalysis TTC statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Scenario calculation | Three-year reference outputs of $136.1 bull, $95.9 base, and $47.4 bear using exact decimal arithmetic | financial_rigor.py three-scenario using TTM EPS and selected assumptions | July 12, 2026 |
This TTC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, weather, tariffs, rates, policy, acquisitions, valuation, or market sentiment change.
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