The Toro Company research snapshot
TTC AI stock analysis reads The Toro Company as a durable outdoor equipment and irrigation franchise with a strong Professional segment, recognizable brands, and improving fiscal 2026 results, but the setup now includes a planned CEO transition and a fuller valuation. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, TTC closed at $91.87 on July 31 with market capitalization near $8.75 billion, and the analysis carries an AI score of 67 out of 100 with a neutral to cautious trend reading below the 50-day average. Fiscal 2026 second-quarter sales rose 8.1% and adjusted EPS rose 12.7% to $1.60, while management raised full-year sales growth guidance to 4.0% to 6.5% and adjusted EPS guidance to $4.50 to $4.62. On July 21, 2026, the board elected President and COO Edric C. Funk to succeed Richard M. Olson as CEO effective November 1, 2026. The TTC AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because Residential demand, weather, tariffs, input costs, acquisition integration, CEO transition execution, and valuation can change the outcome. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$91.87 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$8.75 billion verified from 95.23 million shares
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Quality professional equipment franchise with a planned CEO transition and full valuation
Trend status
Neutral to cautious, below the 50-day average near $92.69 but above the 200-day average near $88.16
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Toro sells mission-critical turf, irrigation, underground construction, snow, landscape, and outdoor power equipment through brands and channels that support repeat professional use. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Toro, Exmark, Ditch Witch, and other trusted brands, dealer relationships, product breadth, service support, engineering know-how, and scale. Residential switching costs are lower than Professional. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Richard Olson returned $441.1 million to shareholders in fiscal 2025 and will hand over to President and COO Edric C. Funk as CEO on November 1, 2026; transition execution is the new watch item. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell 1.6% and GAAP EPS fell to $3.17, but Q2 FY2026 sales rose 8.1%, adjusted EPS rose 12.7% to $1.60, and TTM free cash flow reached $759.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $91.87, TTC is near 26.56x TTM EPS, 18.96x forward earnings, and 11.53x TTM free cash flow. The forward multiple is lower if the $4.50 to $4.62 adjusted EPS guidance is achieved. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is below the 50-day average near $92.69 but above the 200-day average near $88.16, with RSI near 44.91 indicating softening rather than confirming momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include weather, Residential demand, tariffs, commodities, supply chain disruption, customer inventory, product quality, acquisition goodwill, CEO transition execution, debt, and a full market multiple. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and third-party data agree on the main figures. Forecast confidence is lower because cyclical demand and valuation drive the range. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The setup is medium certainty. Operational momentum is improving, but the margin of safety depends on sustained Professional growth, a clean CEO transition, and a Residential recovery at a full price. | Medium |
TTC AI stock forecast
The TTC AI stock forecast uses the July 31 close of $91.87 and TTM EPS of $3.46. The three-year model used 12%, 8%, and negative 3% annual EPS growth with 28x, 22x, and 15x exit multiples. It produced reference values of about $136.1, $95.9, and $47.4 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promises or personalized targets.
$125 to $145 over 3 years
More likely if Professional demand stays strong in underground construction, golf, grounds, and landscape, AMP savings reach the $125 million run-rate goal by fiscal 2027, Tornado integrates well, Residential margins recover, the November 1 CEO transition executes cleanly, and investors keep a premium multiple near the high-20s.
$90 to $105 over 3 years
More likely if sales grow near the mid-single digits, Professional remains the main profit engine, Residential stabilizes, adjusted EPS compounds near 8%, and the market values TTC near 22x earnings.
$45 to $55 over 3 years
More likely if Residential demand remains weak, weather disrupts seasonal categories, tariffs and materials offset pricing, Tornado or the leadership transition disappoints, or the market re-rates TTC toward a mid-teens industrial multiple.
TTC AI technical analysis
TTC AI technical analysis is neutral to cautious as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The July 31 close of $91.87 was below the StockAnalysis 50-day moving average near $92.69 and above the 200-day average near $88.16. RSI near 44.91, a 20-day average volume near 563,848 shares, and a June 5 swing low near $84.25 show a market that has lost some momentum and is testing its longer-term trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $91.87 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31 market close. Price data is time-sensitive and should be refreshed before any decision. |
| Near support | $88 to $90 | This band contains the 200-day moving average near $88.16 and the mid-June and July lows, with the round $90 area acting as a short-term floor. |
| Deeper support | $84 to $85 | The June 5, 2026 swing low near $84.25 is the main downside checkpoint in the current dataset. |
| Near resistance | $93 to $95 | The 50-day moving average near $92.69 and the July 24 to 28 recovery zone sit just above the current price. |
| Higher resistance | $97 to $98 | The June and early-July swing highs near $98.08 are the next major supply reference before the 52-week high near $105.19. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $92.69 and 200-day $88.16 | A reclaim of the 50-day average would improve the short-term setup, while the 200-day average remains the longer-term trend checkpoint. |
| Momentum | RSI 44.91, neutral | RSI below 50 shows fading momentum but not an oversold condition, leaving direction dependent on new information. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 563,848 shares | A move through $93 to $95 or a break of the 200-day average is more credible if volume expands above this reference. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.69 | The lower beta suggests less market sensitivity in the reference data, but earnings, guidance, weather, and seasonal demand can still move TTC sharply. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $88, then $84.25 | A decisive break below the 200-day average near $88.16 damages the longer-term trend case. A break below $84.25 would point to the lower part of the 52-week range. |
TTC AI trading strategy
The TTC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action to Professional bookings, Residential demand, gross margin, AMP savings, Tornado integration, the November 1 CEO transition, cash flow, debt, and shareholder returns.
Look for TTC to reclaim the $93 to $95 zone and hold the $88 to $90 support band with improving volume, while the company maintains its raised fiscal 2026 sales and adjusted EPS guidance.
Reduce confidence after a sustained close below $88, especially if the move is accompanied by weaker Professional demand, lower guidance, margin pressure, or signs that the CEO transition is distracting execution.
If TTC tests the $88 to $92 area without a new thesis break, compare the price with updated EPS, free cash flow, debt, Residential margins, AMP progress, and the evidence that Professional growth is durable.
Do not assume a lower quote is cheap if weather, tariffs, channel inventory, or an acquisition impairment is weakening the underlying earnings power.
Track Professional and Residential sales, segment EBIT margins, AMP savings, Tornado sales and synergies, field inventory, pricing, material costs, free cash flow, debt, dividends, repurchases, and the November 1 leadership transition.
Lower setup confidence if earnings improve only through cost savings while revenue quality, working capital, or cash conversion deteriorates.
Investment research summary
Toro helps golf courses, sports fields, landscapers, contractors, municipalities, agricultural users, homeowners, and other outdoor customers maintain land, manage water, clear snow, and build underground infrastructure. Customers pay for reliable equipment, product performance, dealer support, replacement parts, and solutions that reduce downtime.
Toro has a meaningful but not unbreakable moat from the Toro, Ditch Witch, Exmark, BOSS, Ventrac, Tornado, Irritrol, and other brands, distribution in more than 125 countries, dealer relationships, product breadth, engineering, and post-sale service. The Professional segment has stronger customer and channel stickiness than Residential products, where barriers to entry are lower.
The thesis can fail if weather reduces seasonal demand, Residential products remain weak, channel customers cut inventories, tariffs and materials erase price realization, supply disruptions stop production, product quality creates claims, Tornado integration creates goodwill impairment, the November 1 CEO transition stumbles, or the market cuts the multiple after a strong run.
Richard Olson has served as CEO since 2016 and will become Executive Chairman on November 1, 2026, when President and COO Edric Funk, a roughly 30-year company veteran, becomes CEO. Management returned $441.1 million to shareholders in fiscal 2025 and $360.9 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, while AMP had delivered $106.8 million of cumulative savings by the second quarter. The key test is whether the new CEO and the buyback, productivity, and acquisition program create per-share value without weakening financial flexibility.
Long-term demand drivers include water efficiency, smart-connected and autonomous equipment, golf and sports field maintenance, infrastructure replacement, landscape services, alternative power, and outdoor labor productivity. These trends help the opportunity set, but the business remains exposed to weather, construction cycles, consumer confidence, and dealer inventory.
At about 26.56x TTM EPS, 18.96x forward earnings, and 11.53x TTM free cash flow, TTC is not priced like a distressed manufacturer. The market is giving credit for the $4.50 to $4.62 adjusted EPS outlook, Professional recovery, and capital returns. The margin of safety narrows if Residential weakness returns, the CEO transition distracts execution, or the earnings multiple falls toward the bearish scenario.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTC close price | $91.87 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis TTC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.75 billion, verified as $91.87 multiplied by 95.23 million shares | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 95.23 million in current market data, compared with 97.888 million issued and outstanding at October 31, 2025 | StockAnalysis statistics and Toro fiscal 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 revenue and net income | $4.510 billion revenue and $316.1 million net income, cross-validated within 1% against StockAnalysis | Toro fiscal 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue rose from $3.960 billion in FY2021 to $4.510 billion in FY2025, net income moved from $409.9 million to $316.1 million, and free cash flow reached $578.3 million in FY2025 with TTM free cash flow at $759.1 million | StockAnalysis TTC financials, cross-checked with Toro filings | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 second-quarter results | $1,424.7 million net sales, up 8.1%, $145.4 million net income, $1.50 reported diluted EPS, and $1.60 adjusted EPS | The Toro Company fiscal 2026 second-quarter release | August 3, 2026 |
| Segment mix and first-half trend | Professional was $1,930.6 million in first-half sales, up 8.3%; Residential was $516.4 million, down 0.4% | Toro fiscal 2026 second-quarter Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Total company net sales growth of 4.0% to 6.5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.50 to $4.62 after the Q2 increase | The Toro Company fiscal 2026 second-quarter release | August 3, 2026 |
| CEO succession | On July 21, 2026, the board elected President and COO Edric C. Funk as CEO effective November 1, 2026, with Richard M. Olson becoming Executive Chairman | Toro Form 8-K filed July 22, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and ownership | Richard M. Olson has been CEO since 2016 and will move to Executive Chairman on November 1, 2026; current market data lists insider ownership at 0.32% and institutional ownership at 94.48% | Toro Form 8-K and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and liquidity | $180.4 million cash, $1.02 billion total debt, and $983.3 million available liquidity as of May 1, 2026 | Toro fiscal 2026 second-quarter Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | Returned $441.1 million to shareholders in fiscal 2025 and $360.9 million in the first half of fiscal 2026 | Toro fiscal 2025 Form 10-K and fiscal 2026 second-quarter Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 26.56x TTM EPS, 18.96x forward earnings, 1.88x sales, 6.41x book value, 11.53x free cash flow, 16.49x EV to EBITDA, and 1.70% dividend yield; PEG was not available | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis TTC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $92.69, 200-day moving average $88.16, RSI 44.91, beta 0.69, 20-day average volume 563,848 shares, and a 52-week range of $67.64 to $105.19 | StockAnalysis TTC statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Scenario calculation | Three-year reference outputs of $136.1 bull, $95.9 base, and $47.4 bear using exact decimal arithmetic | financial_rigor.py three-scenario using TTM EPS and selected assumptions | August 3, 2026 |
This TTC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, weather, tariffs, rates, policy, acquisitions, leadership transition, valuation, or market sentiment change.
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