T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. research snapshot
TROW AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. as a high-quality, net-cash asset manager whose shares fell 6.31% to $111.75 at the July 31, 2026 close, the day the firm reported Q2 2026 results, with a market capitalization near $23.84 billion, re-verified as $111.75 times 213.32 million shares with a 0.01% deviation. Q2 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.57 beat the prior-year $2.24, adjusted net revenue rose about 8.5% year over year to roughly $1.9 billion, and firmwide AUM reached a record about $1.9 trillion at June 30, 2026, with $4.4 billion of net inflows into ETFs in the quarter and positive flows in May and June including a large sub-advisory win. The offset is that Q2 still recorded $6.5 billion of net client outflows, the annualized effective fee rate fell to 38.1 basis points, management guided full-year 2026 adjusted operating expenses up 4% to 7%, and the CEO explicitly said second-half net flows should be meaningfully more challenging than the first half. Analysts hold a Hold consensus with an average target near $109, below the current price. This page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$111.75
Market cap
$23.84 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Quality asset manager, balanced value after the pullback
Trend status
Pullback below the 20-day average, holding near the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | T. Rowe Price earns recurring investment advisory, administrative, and performance fees on about $1.9 trillion of AUM across equity, fixed income, multi-asset, alternatives, ETFs, and retirement solutions, with high margins and a net cash balance sheet. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, retirement distribution, a research-led culture, product breadth, and scale, but passive vehicles, model portfolios, and lower-fee competitors keep narrowing the traditional active-management advantage. | Medium-high |
| Management | Rob Sharps, Jen Dardis, and newly named President Eric Veiel are balancing capital returns, ETF and SMA expansion, alternatives and Goldman Sachs partnerships, AI adoption, and expense discipline while trying to stabilize persistent active equity outflows. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 GAAP net revenues rose about 10.7% year over year to $1.907 billion and GAAP diluted EPS rose to $2.88 from $2.24, while adjusted diluted EPS of $2.57 grew from $2.24 a year earlier, helped by record AUM, but fee rates and flows remain under pressure. | High |
| Valuation | At about 11.22x trailing EPS, 10.84x forward earnings, 14.24x trailing free cash flow, and a 4.65% dividend yield, the valuation is reasonable for a net-cash franchise, but the average analyst target near $109 sits below the current price. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $111.75 broke below the 20-day moving average near $117.49 and the 5-day average near $118.16, while holding just above the 50-day moving average near $111.32 and well above the 200-day average near $102.52. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate: the balance sheet and dividend are strong, but earnings are exposed to market levels, product and vehicle mix, fee compression, active equity redemptions, and a short interest of 12.53% of shares outstanding that can amplify moves. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for data organization and cross-checked math and medium for forecasting because future flows, fee rates, and market returns can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low to medium because the business is understandable and attractively valued, but the share price sits above the average analyst target and the flow outlook is explicitly more challenging in the second half. | Medium-low |
TROW AI stock forecast
The TROW AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction. A three-year financial-rigor model anchored on the FY2026 consensus EPS of $10.16 produced reference points of about $153 in a bullish 5% EPS growth and 13x PE case, about $119 in a base 2% EPS growth and 11x PE case, and about $70 in a bearish negative 5% EPS growth and 8x PE case.
$145 to $160
More likely if AUM keeps rising on market gains and ETF, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives inflows, active equity outflows narrow, fee pressure slows, and the stock holds above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after earnings.
$112 to $126
More likely if revenue grows modestly, the effective fee rate keeps drifting down, analysts keep a Hold stance, and the market values TROW near its current 10x to 12x earnings range, roughly in line with the average analyst target area.
$62 to $80
More likely if equity markets weaken, active equity outflows reaccelerate, fee compression worsens, expense growth outpaces revenue, or a break below the 200-day moving average turns the current pullback into a deeper correction.
TROW AI technical analysis
TROW AI technical analysis starts from the $111.75 close on July 31, 2026 and Barchart technicals checked August 2, 2026. The stock fell 6.31% on earnings day, breaking below the 20-day moving average near $117.49 while holding just above the 50-day moving average near $111.32 and well above the 200-day average near $102.52, so the setup needs a stabilizing close above the 50-day before it can rebuild the short-term uptrend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $111.75 | Close on July 31, 2026 after a 6.31% earnings-day drop, used as the quote anchor for this static page. |
| Near resistance | $117 to $120 | The 20-day moving average near $117.49 and the gap down from the pre-earnings $119.28 close create the first resistance; the 52-week high of $122.00 remains overhead. |
| First support | $110 to $111 | The 50-day moving average near $111.32 and the July 31 low of $110.25 make this the first zone to watch for a stabilizing reaction. |
| Next support | $103 to $104 | The 100-day moving average near $103.41 provides the next technical floor below the 50-day. |
| 200-day moving average | $102.52 | A decisive break below the 200-day average would weaken the longer-term uptrend signal. |
| Momentum | RSI 43.37, ADX 19.04 | 14-day RSI at 43.37 is neutral, not oversold, and 14-day ADX near 19.04 shows a weak trend with the negative directional index above the positive one after the drop. |
| Volume | 5.19 million on July 31 vs 2.11 million 20-day average | Earnings-day volume was about 2.5 times the average, confirming real distribution pressure rather than a low-volume drift. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.47, 14-day historical volatility 36.5% | TROW carries above-market beta, so position sizing should allow for market and flow-driven swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $102.50 | A close below the 200-day moving average near $102.52 would invalidate the longer uptrend and shift the framework to a deeper correction. |
TROW AI trading strategy
The TROW AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not a personalized recommendation. The stock combines a net-cash balance sheet, a 4.65% dividend yield, and reasonable valuation with persistent flow headwinds, fee pressure, and a high short interest.
Wait for TROW to reclaim and hold the 20-day moving average near $117.49 with volume above the 2.11 million 20-day average, then confirm the next AUM, fee-rate, or earnings update does not weaken the flow thesis before adding exposure.
A failed reclaim of the 20-day average or a close below the 50-day near $111.32 should reduce setup quality and tighten the stop.
If TROW stabilizes in the $110 to $111 zone on the 50-day average without a flow or market thesis break, compare the price reaction with monthly AUM, fee-rate commentary, and broader equity-market levels.
Avoid averaging down if the weakness is driven by renewed outflows, rising expense growth, margin pressure, or a break below the 200-day moving average near $102.52.
Track monthly AUM, quarterly net flows, the effective fee rate, ETF and SMA inflows, alternatives and Goldman Sachs partnership progress, buyback pace, dividend coverage, and analyst target revisions.
Lower confidence when price strength depends only on market beta while client outflows and fee compression keep deteriorating, or when expense growth outruns revenue growth.
Investment research summary
T. Rowe Price sells investment management and advisory services. Clients pay because the firm packages portfolio management, research, retirement access, distribution, and product administration into trusted investment solutions, now including ETFs, SMAs, and alternatives.
Brand reputation, retirement-channel presence, a research-led culture, product breadth, and scale create a moat, but passive products, model portfolios, and lower-fee competitors make the moat less protected than a closed network or regulated monopoly.
The thesis fails if active equity outflows persist or reaccelerate, fee compression offsets market gains, second-half flows prove worse than management guides, alternatives and ETF growth stay too small, or a market drawdown cuts AUM faster than expenses can adjust.
Management is investing in ETFs, SMAs, alternatives, the Goldman Sachs partnership, and AI while buying back stock and growing the dividend. The challenge is that these investments add expense growth of 4% to 7% in 2026 while revenue depends on flows and fee rates that are still under pressure.
The asset-management industry benefits from long-term savings growth but faces a structural shift toward passive, model portfolios, private markets, ETFs, and lower-cost distribution that pressures active mutual fund economics.
At about 11.2x trailing EPS, 10.8x forward earnings, and a 4.65% dividend yield with about $2.8 billion of net cash, valuation is reasonable, but the stock trades above the average analyst target near $109, so margin of safety depends on flow stabilization and continued capital returns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TROW price | $111.75 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 6.31% on earnings day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $23.84 billion, computed as $111.75 x 213.32 million shares with a 0.01% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted diluted EPS $2.57, up from $2.24 in Q2 2025 and $2.52 in Q1 2026, on adjusted net revenue of about $1.9 billion, up 8.5% year over year | T. Rowe Price Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net revenues $1.907 billion, net income attributable to T. Rowe Price $632.0 million, diluted EPS $2.88, all up from $1.723 billion, $505.2 million, and $2.24 in Q2 2025 | TROW Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filed July 31, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Firmwide AUM | About $1.9 trillion, with ending AUM of $1.893 trillion at June 30, 2026, up 12.9% from $1.677 trillion a year earlier | TROW Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net client flows | Net client outflows of $6.5 billion, with elevated April outflows offset by positive May and June flows including a large defined contribution win and a large sub-advisory win | T. Rowe Price Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 effective fee rate | Annualized effective fee rate excluding performance-based fees of 38.1 bps, down from 38.4 bps in Q1 2026 and 39.6 bps in Q2 2025 | TROW Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| ETF and SMA momentum | ETF net inflows of $4.4 billion in Q2, ETF lineup at 34 funds with $30 billion AUM, SMA platform at 43 products with $20 billion AUM, and the Active Crypto ETF launched in mid-July 2026 | T. Rowe Price Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Second-half flow guidance | CEO Rob Sharps said second-half net flows should be meaningfully more challenging than the first half due to ongoing active equity outflows, the absence of the first-half outsized mandates, equity rebalancing, and a target date pipeline air pocket, while 2026 is still expected to be a record year for gross flows | T. Rowe Price Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Expense guidance | Full-year 2026 adjusted operating expenses, excluding carried interest, guided up 4% to 7% over 2025 adjusted operating expenses of $4.6 billion | T. Rowe Price Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Q2 2026 buybacks of $157 million, year-to-date buybacks of over $497 million, equal to nearly 2.5% of shares outstanding, with share count at 213.3 million at June 30, 2026 | T. Rowe Price Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $3.234 billion and operating lease liabilities of $429.4 million as of June 30, 2026, with about $2.8 billion of net cash; management also cited $4.4 billion of cash and discretionary investments | TROW Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | FY2025 net revenues of $7.3148 billion and net income attributable to T. Rowe Price of $2.0871 billion, cross-checked against StockAnalysis.com financials | TROW FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and dividend | 11.22x trailing PE, 10.84x forward PE, 14.24x price to free cash flow, 2.17x book value, and a 4.65% dividend yield with a 52.2% payout ratio and 40 years of dividend growth | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 20-day MA near $117.49, 50-day MA near $111.32, 100-day MA near $103.41, 200-day MA near $102.52, 14-day RSI 43.37, 14-day ADX 19.04, beta 1.47, 52-week range $85.22 to $122.00 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 26.73 million shares short, 12.53% of shares outstanding and 12.73% of float, with 11.13 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold consensus across 13 analysts with an average price target of $109, low $86 and high $124 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 9 Hold, 3 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell out of 13 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Morgan Stanley Hold $109 to $116 on July 29, TD Cowen Hold $108 to $107 on July 20, Goldman Sachs Sell $92 to $94 on July 15, J.P. Morgan Sell $107 on July 14, Barclays Sell $89 to $108 on July 14 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $7.82 billion with EPS of $10.16, FY2027 revenue estimate of $8.08 billion with EPS of $10.35 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $1.93 billion and capital expenditures of $258.4 million over TTM, giving free cash flow of $1.67 billion | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
This TROW AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, AUM reports, flow releases, market moves, or macro conditions.
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