TIM S.A. research snapshot
TIMB AI stock analysis currently reads TIM S.A. as a Brazilian telecom operator focused on mobile service revenue, with smaller fixed broadband, B2B connectivity, and digital-service exposure, and with ultimate control through TIM Brasil and the Italian TIM group. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest multi-source quote snapshot used $22.28, a verified market capitalization of about $10.64 billion on roughly 477.73 million ADRs, TTM P/E near 12.9x on about $1.73 ADR EPS, and a forward dividend yield near 6.6% on a $1.48 indicated annual dividend. The TIMB AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a certain price target. The core tension is improving service revenue, postpaid mix, 5G coverage, and cash generation versus Brazilian real translation, three-player mobile competition, capital intensity, Anatel regulation, parent capital allocation, and a chart that remains well below the $28 area 52-week high. This page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$22.28
Market cap
$10.64 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative Brazilian wireless operator with high yield and emerging-market risk
Trend status
Neutral to mixed: price sits near intermediate averages after a multi-month pullback from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TIM earns recurring revenue mainly from Brazilian mobile prepaid and postpaid plans, with growing but still smaller fixed Ultrafibra broadband, enterprise B2B connectivity, and digital offers. | High |
| Moat | Spectrum, nationwide radio access, brand, distribution, and roughly mid-20% mobile share support a durable franchise in a concentrated market. Pricing power is limited by Vivo and Claro competition and regulation, and fixed broadband share remains small. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Alberto Griselli has led since early 2022 with a focus on postpaid mix, 5G leadership, network modernization, B2B expansion, and shareholder returns. Personal ownership is small; capital allocation is also shaped by the Italian TIM parent structure. | Medium |
| Financial trend | USD databases show FY2025 revenue near $4.9 billion and net income near $0.77 billion, with TTM revenue near $5.05 billion. Q1 2026 service revenue rose about 6.5% to R$6.6 billion, EBITDA rose about 6.6% to R$3.3 billion with a 48.3% margin, and net profit was about R$821 million. | High for BRL operating trends; medium for USD conversions |
| Valuation | At $22.28, financial_rigor.py calculates about 12.9x TTM EPS of $1.73, 2.23x book value near $9.99, and a 6.64% indicated dividend yield on $1.48. Net debt is material after cash of about $1.13 billion and total debt of about $3.22 billion as of March 2026. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | As of early July 2026 snapshots, price was near the middle of the $17.65 to $28.22 52-week range and close to intermediate moving averages, with RSI near the mid-40s to high-40s depending on provider timing. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-high because BRL volatility, mobile price competition, spectrum and network capex, regulation, parent capital allocation, and dividend sustainability can reprice the ADR quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the source-backed operating map and verified market-cap arithmetic. Lower for multi-year price paths, FX translation of earnings, and exact payout durability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The mobile franchise and cash generation are real, but the setup still requires proof that service growth, free cash flow after network investment, and dividends hold up through FX and competitive cycles. | Medium |
TIMB AI stock forecast
The TIMB AI stock forecast uses a three-year earnings and multiple framework around the $22.28 July 2026 quote and about $1.73 TTM ADR EPS. Financial-rigor scenario math produced about $36.8 in the bullish case, $26.0 in the base case, and $17.3 in the bearish case before dividends. These are conditional planning ranges, not price promises.
$32 to $38
More likely if postpaid and service revenue keep growing mid-single digits or better, EBITDA margins stay near the high-40% area, free cash flow covers dividends after 5G and fiber capex, BRL remains stable or strengthens versus the dollar, competition stays rational, and TIMB reclaims the mid-$24 to $26 resistance zone toward the prior $28 high with volume.
$23 to $28
More likely if mobile ARPU and postpaid mix improve gradually, earnings grow low to mid single digits, the ADR continues to trade near a low-teens earnings multiple, and the stock oscillates between the $20 support area and the mid-$20s while the dividend remains the main total-return driver.
$14 to $19
More likely if price competition deepens, net income and cash flow compress, BRL weakens sharply, the dividend is cut or perceived as unsustainable, capex rises after network re-integration without matching returns, or the ADR loses the $19 to $20 support band and re-rates toward a single-digit to low-teens P/E near the year-low zone.
TIMB AI technical analysis
TIMB AI technical analysis was neutral to mixed as of the early July 2026 market snapshots used for this page. Provider averages differed slightly by observation time: StockAnalysis listed a $22.79 50-day average and $23.29 200-day average with RSI near 48.3, while other feeds showed averages closer to the low $21s. The 52-week range was $17.65 to $28.22. Confirm live data before relying on any chart level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.28 | Multi-source July 11, 2026 quote snapshot used for market-cap verification on the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Support | $19.50 to $20.50 | Near recent pullback structure and the area above the mid-range floor. A decisive break would weaken the base-case mean-reversion setup. |
| Secondary support | $17.65 to $18.50 | Near the 52-week low. Losing this band would confirm a deeper bearish re-rating risk. |
| Resistance | $24.00 to $26.00 | First overhead supply into the mid-range recovery zone. A sustained reclaim would improve the intermediate trend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $21.60 to $22.80 | Provider snapshots differed by observation time. Treat the band as an intermediate pivot rather than a single exact print. |
| 200-day moving average | About $21.80 to $23.30 | Longer-term trend reference from early July 2026 feeds. Price near this zone keeps the medium-term signal mixed. |
| Momentum | Neutral; RSI snapshots near mid-40s to high-40s | Neither overbought nor deeply oversold on the dated RSI prints. Momentum is secondary to price versus support and the 50-day and 200-day averages. |
| Volume | About 300k to 370k average daily ADR shares | Liquidity is usable for most retail monitoring, but average volume is thinner than mega-cap U.S. telecom names, so gaps around Brazil news and ex-dividend dates can be larger. |
| Volatility context | 52-week range $17.65 to $28.22 | Wide annual range reflects BRL, rates, and EM equity risk as much as company-specific news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.65 on rising volume | Would invalidate the defensive base case that treats the year-low area as a durable floor for mean-reversion setups. |
TIMB AI trading strategy
The TIMB AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personalized advice. TIMB is best treated as a cash-flow and dividend-sensitive Brazilian telecom ADR where FX, competition, and payout news can dominate short-term price moves.
Wait for a sustained reclaim of the $24 to $26 resistance band with improving volume and service-revenue confirmation from the next earnings print. Trail risk under the reclaimed pivot rather than forecasting a precise upside target.
Invalidation is a close back below the reclaimed band or a break of the prior swing low. Position size should respect BRL and ADR overnight gap risk.
Only consider after a pullback into the $19.50 to $20.50 support area if the dividend thesis remains intact, postpaid trends are still growing, and there is no fresh competitive or regulatory shock. Target first resistance near the mid-$20s rather than the full year high.
Hard invalidation below the $17.65 year-low zone. Avoid averaging down through a dividend cut scare or a sharp BRL break without a predefined loss limit.
Track mobile service revenue, postpaid base and ARPU, EBITDA after leases, operating cash flow, capex after the I-Systems re-integration, net debt, BRL/USD, Anatel decisions, and dividend declarations. Use Pineify tools to codify alerts and scenario rules rather than discretionary impulse trades.
If free cash flow coverage of dividends weakens for two consecutive quarters, treat the high-yield narrative as broken until proven otherwise.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TIM for mobile connectivity first, then for fixed broadband, devices, and B2B digital or IoT services. In one sentence: TIM is a Brazilian wireless cash-flow business trying to raise quality mix and network quality while returning cash to shareholders.
Brand, spectrum, radio network scale, distribution, and switching friction create a real but not impregnable moat. The three-player Brazilian market and regulation cap pricing power, and fixed broadband remains a small share of revenue versus pure fiber leaders.
The thesis fails if ARPU competition returns, BRL weakens faster than local earnings grow, network modernization and fiber re-integration absorb cash without returns, the dividend is cut, Anatel or tax rules change economics, or the Italian parent forces capital allocation that disadvantages minority ADR holders.
Griselli-era priorities include postpaid growth, 5G coverage leadership, network modernization with AI operations tools, B2B expansion, and high shareholder remuneration. The February 2026 decision to regain control of I-Systems after a weak wholesale take-up shows willingness to reverse a prior infrastructure partnership when the industrial case failed.
Brazil remains a large mobile data market with 5G densification, enterprise connectivity, agribusiness IoT, and gradual fixed broadband upgrades. The industry is capital intensive and exposed to rates, FX, and regulation, so operators win more on mix, cost discipline, and spectrum efficiency than on pure subscriber growth.
At about 12.9x TTM earnings and a mid-6% indicated dividend yield, the market prices TIMB as a mature cash-return telecom rather than a growth compounder. Margin of safety depends on sustainable free cash flow after capex and on BRL stability; the current price is not a guarantee of cheapness if earnings or the payout compress.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIMB market snapshot | $22.28 share price and about $10.64 billion market capitalization as of the July 11, 2026 multi-source snapshot used on the July 12, 2026 cutoff | CompaniesMarketCap TIMB market cap | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.64 billion from $22.28 x 477.73 million ADRs, a 0.04% variance to the reported market cap in financial_rigor.py | CompaniesMarketCap shares outstanding and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding cross-check | 477.73 million ADRs from CompaniesMarketCap and GuruFocus, with zero material variance | CompaniesMarketCap and GuruFocus | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM revenue context | About $4.86 billion FY2025 revenue and about $5.05 billion TTM revenue in CompaniesMarketCap; Macrotrends sector cards have shown nearby USD figures that can differ with FX timing | CompaniesMarketCap revenue page | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $0.772 billion FY2025 net income on Macrotrends, with TTM net income near $0.791 billion through March 31, 2026. USD conversion and pretax versus net definitions create larger spreads versus some aggregator fields. | Macrotrends TIMB net income | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation arithmetic | About 12.88x TTM EPS of $1.73, 2.23x book value near $9.99, 7.76% earnings yield, and 6.64% indicated dividend yield on $1.48 | Yahoo Finance key stats context and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt snapshot | Cash on hand about $1.13 billion and total debt about $3.22 billion as of March 2026, implying net debt near $2.1 billion before lease-definition nuances | CompaniesMarketCap cash and total debt pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating performance | Service revenue about R$6.6 billion (+6.5% year over year), mobile revenue about R$6.2 billion, fixed revenue about R$391 million, EBITDA about R$3.3 billion with a 48.3% margin, operating cash flow up about 16.8%, and net profit about R$821 million | TI Inside summary of TIM Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Strategic network decision | In February 2026 TIM paid about R$950 million to regain a 51% stake and control of I-Systems after the neutral network model failed to deliver the expected industrial benefits; fiber broadband was about 850,000 customers and roughly 4% of revenue at year-end 2025 per management comments | Valor International coverage of TIM I-Systems buyback | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference data | 52-week range $17.65 to $28.22; StockAnalysis snapshots near $22.79 50-day, $23.29 200-day, and RSI 48.29; other feeds printed nearby averages in the low $21s. Confirm live chart data. | StockAnalysis TIMB statistics and Investing.com technical page | July 12, 2026 |
This TIMB page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and assumptions as of July 12, 2026, can be wrong, and do not account for every investor circumstance. Verify current market and company data independently before making an investment decision.
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