TIM S.A. research snapshot
TIMB AI stock analysis currently reads TIM S.A. as a Brazilian wireless operator that earns recurring revenue from mobile service plans, with growing fixed Ultrafibra broadband, B2B connectivity, and digital services, and with ultimate control through TIM Brasil and the Italian TIM group. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest close used $19.17, a verified market capitalization of about $9.1 billion on roughly 477.7 million ADRs, a TTM P/E near 11x on about $1.70 to $1.75 ADR EPS, and a trailing dividend yield near 6.0% on an annual dividend of about $1.16 per ADR. The TIMB AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a certain price target. The core tension is solid first-half cash generation and margin gains against slowing mobile revenue growth near 4.7%, more promotional competition, higher churn after a first-quarter price increase, BRL translation risk, and a chart that recently broke below its moving averages near the $18 to $19 zone. This page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$19.17
Market cap
$9.1 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
High-yield Brazilian wireless operator repriced after Q2 results; cash generation intact while mobile growth slows
Trend status
Bearish to oversold: price sits below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near the lower end of the 52-week range after a post-earnings decline
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TIM earns recurring revenue mainly from Brazilian mobile plans, with postpaid now close to 70% of mobile service revenue, plus growing fixed Ultrafibra broadband, B2B connectivity near 7% of service revenue, and digital offers such as TIM Play and the PicPay partnership. | High |
| Moat | Spectrum, nationwide radio access, brand, distribution, and roughly mid-20% mobile share support a durable franchise in a concentrated market. Pricing power is limited by Vivo and Claro competition and by more widespread below-the-line promotional offers, and fixed broadband share remains small. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Alberto Griselli has led since early 2022 with a focus on postpaid mix, 5G leadership, broadband re-integration, B2B expansion, AI-led efficiency, and shareholder returns. Insider ownership is near 0.05%, the CFO sold 35,000 shares in June 2026, and capital allocation is also shaped by the Italian TIM parent structure. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue approached BRL 7 billion; first-half service revenue rose about 6%, EBITDA about 7%, EBITDA after leases close to 8%, operating cash flow surpassed BRL 3 billion with double-digit growth, and Q2 net income exceeded BRL 1 billion, up about 6% year over year. USD databases show TTM net income near $0.81 billion and FY2025 net income near $0.77 billion, while mobile revenue growth slowed to about 4.7%. | High for BRL operating trends; medium for USD conversions |
| Valuation | At $19.17, financial_rigor.py calculates about 10.95x TTM EPS of $1.75, 1.90x book value near $10.11 per ADR, a 6.05% trailing dividend yield on $1.16, and a near 20% FCF yield. StockAnalysis lists a 10.93 trailing and 9.88 forward P/E while CompaniesMarketCap prints 13.2x TTM. Net debt is near $2.3 billion after cash of about $0.87 billion and total debt of about $3.18 billion. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | As of the July 31, 2026 close, price was $19.17, below the 50-day average of about $21.65 and the 200-day average of about $23.27, with RSI near 28 in oversold territory and the stock near the lower third of the $18.02 to $28.22 52-week range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-high because BRL volatility, mobile price competition and churn, spectrum and network capex plus I-Systems debt, regulation, low insider ownership, parent capital allocation, and dividend sustainability can reprice the ADR quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for the source-backed operating map and verified market-cap arithmetic. Lower for multi-year price paths, FX translation of earnings, and exact payout durability. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The mobile franchise and cash generation are real, but the setup still requires proof that mobile growth re-accelerates and that free cash flow after network and fiber investment keeps funding the dividend through FX and competitive cycles. | Medium |
TIMB AI stock forecast
The TIMB AI stock forecast uses a three-year earnings and multiple framework around the $19.17 August 2026 close and about $1.75 TTM ADR EPS. Financial-rigor scenario math produced about $27 in the bullish case, $20 in the base case, and $14 in the bearish case before dividends. These are conditional planning ranges, not price promises.
$25 to $28
More likely if mobile revenue growth re-accelerates as churn normalizes, postpaid mix keeps rising, Ultrafibra broadband with I-Systems and TIM Ultracombo plus B2B keep growing double digit, EBITDA margins hold near current levels, free cash flow covers dividends after capex, BRL stabilizes or strengthens, and the ADR reclaims the $21.65 to $23.27 moving-average zone toward the $24 to $26 area and the prior $28.22 high.
$19 to $23
More likely if service revenue grows low to mid single digits, margins keep expanding gradually, the stock continues to trade near a low-teens earnings multiple with the dividend as the main total-return driver, and price oscillates between the $18 to $19 support area and the moving-average band near $22 to $23.
$12 to $17
More likely if mobile price competition deepens, churn stays elevated, net income and free cash flow compress, BRL weakens sharply, the dividend is cut or seen as unsustainable, I-Systems integration raises debt or capex without matching returns, or the ADR loses the $18.02 52-week low and re-rates toward a single-digit P/E near the $14 to $17 zone.
TIMB AI technical analysis
TIMB AI technical analysis was bearish and oversold at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close of $19.17 sits below the 50-day average of about $21.65 and the 200-day average of about $23.27, with RSI near 28 in oversold territory after a post-earnings decline of about 5% on July 30. The 52-week range is $18.02 to $28.22, and the stock trades near the lower third of that range. Confirm live chart data before relying on any level.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $19.17 | July 31, 2026 close used for market-cap verification on the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Support | $18.00 to $18.50 | Near the 52-week low of $18.02. A hold here keeps the mean-reversion setup alive; a decisive break would weaken it. |
| Secondary support | $17.00 to $17.65 | Below the prior year-low zone. Losing this band would confirm a deeper bearish re-rating risk. |
| Resistance | $21.65 | The 50-day moving average, the first overhead supply a recovery must reclaim. |
| Secondary resistance | $23.27 | The 200-day moving average, the longer-term trend pivot. A sustained reclaim would improve the intermediate trend. |
| Momentum | Oversold; RSI near 28 | Short-term momentum is bearish because price is below both moving averages, but the RSI print is stretched and can resolve either way. |
| Volume | About 558,000 average daily shares (20 days) | Turnover rose around the July 28 earnings release, when shares fell about 5% on July 30. Liquidity is usable but thinner than mega-cap U.S. telecom names. |
| Volatility context | 52-week range $18.02 to $28.22 | Wide annual range reflects BRL, rates, and EM equity risk as much as company-specific news. Measured beta is near 0.11. |
| Invalidation | Weekly close below $18.02 on rising volume | Would invalidate the mean-reversion setup and point to a retest of the $17 area or lower. |
TIMB AI trading strategy
The TIMB AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personalized advice. TIMB is best treated as a cash-flow and dividend-sensitive Brazilian telecom ADR where FX, competition, churn, and payout news can dominate short-term price moves, and the stock is currently below its moving averages in an oversold state.
Wait for a sustained reclaim of the $21.65 50-day average and then the $23.27 200-day average with rising volume and confirmation that mobile revenue is stabilizing at the next earnings print. Trail risk under the reclaimed pivot rather than forecasting a precise upside target.
Invalidation is a close back below the reclaimed average or a break of the prior swing low. Position size should respect BRL and ADR overnight gap risk.
Only consider an entry near the $18.00 to $18.50 support zone if the dividend thesis is intact, churn is improving, and there is no fresh competitive or regulatory shock. Target first resistance near the $21.65 to $23.27 moving-average band rather than the full year high.
Hard invalidation below the $18.02 52-week low. Avoid averaging down through a dividend cut scare or a sharp BRL break without a predefined loss limit.
Track mobile service revenue growth, postpaid base, ARPU, and churn, EBITDA after leases, operating cash flow, capex and net debt including I-Systems, dividend declarations in BRL, the BRL/USD rate, Anatel decisions, and the B2B pipeline including V8 and IoT. Use Pineify tools to codify alerts and scenario rules rather than discretionary impulse trades.
If free cash flow coverage of dividends weakens for two consecutive quarters or I-Systems adds debt faster than expected, treat the high-yield narrative as broken until proven otherwise.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TIM monthly for mobile connectivity first, then for fixed broadband, devices, content, and B2B or IoT services. In one sentence: TIM is a Brazilian wireless cash-flow business trying to re-accelerate mobile growth while expanding broadband and B2B and returning cash to shareholders.
Brand, spectrum, nationwide radio network scale, distribution, and switching friction create a real but not impregnable moat. A concentrated three-player market and more widespread below-the-line promotional offers cap pricing power, and fixed broadband remains a small share of revenue versus pure fiber leaders.
The thesis fails if ARPU competition deepens, churn stays elevated, BRL weakens faster than local earnings grow, I-Systems integration and fiber capex absorb cash without returns, the dividend is cut, Anatel or tax rules change economics, or the Italian parent forces capital allocation that disadvantages minority ADR holders.
Griselli-era priorities include postpaid mix, 5G and network modernization, broadband re-integration through I-Systems, B2B and AI-led efficiency, and high shareholder remuneration. The decisions to buy back I-Systems control, launch convergent and content offers, and partner with PicPay show an operating-focused capital allocation, while insider ownership near 0.05% and a June 2026 CFO share sale keep key-person alignment modest.
Brazil remains a large mobile data market with 5G densification, enterprise connectivity, agribusiness and logistics IoT, and gradual fixed broadband upgrades. The industry is capital intensive and exposed to rates, FX, and regulation, so operators win more on mix, cost discipline, and spectrum efficiency than on pure subscriber growth.
At about 11x TTM earnings, a forward P/E near 9.9x, and a trailing dividend yield near 6.0%, the market prices TIMB as a mature cash-return telecom rather than a growth compounder. Margin of safety depends on sustainable free cash flow after fiber and network capex and on BRL stability; the cheaper multiple after the recent drop is not a guarantee of cheapness if earnings or the payout compress.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TIMB market snapshot | $19.17 share price and about $9.1 billion market capitalization as of the July 31, 2026 close, cross-checked on the August 3, 2026 cutoff | CompaniesMarketCap TIMB market cap | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $9.16 billion from $19.17 x 477,733,600 ADRs, a 0.09% variance to the reported $9.15 billion in financial_rigor.py | CompaniesMarketCap shares outstanding and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding cross-check | 477.73 million ADRs from CompaniesMarketCap, consistent with 2.39 billion B3 common shares at the 1 ADR to 5 share ratio used by StockAnalysis | CompaniesMarketCap and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM and FY2025 revenue context | About $5.05 billion TTM and $4.86 billion FY2025 revenue in CompaniesMarketCap; StockAnalysis prints about $5.29 billion TTM and Macrotrends about $4.77 billion, so USD revenue carries an FX-timing dependent spread | CompaniesMarketCap revenue page | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM and annual net income | About $0.811 billion TTM net income through June 30, 2026, up about 27% year over year, and about $0.772 billion FY2025 net income on Macrotrends; StockAnalysis shows about $0.835 billion TTM, so definitions and FX create a moderate spread | Macrotrends TIMB net income | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation arithmetic | About 10.95x TTM EPS of $1.75, 1.90x book value near $10.11, 9.13% earnings yield, 19.67% FCF yield, and 6.05% dividend yield on $1.16 in financial_rigor.py; StockAnalysis lists 10.93 trailing and 9.88 forward P/E while CompaniesMarketCap prints 13.2x TTM | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt snapshot | Cash and equivalents about $874 million and total debt about $3.18 billion as of Q2 2026, implying net debt near $2.3 billion before lease-definition nuances, with equity book value about $4.83 billion | StockAnalysis TIMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating performance | Revenue approached BRL 7 billion in Q2; first-half service revenue rose about 6%, EBITDA about 7%, EBITDA after leases close to 8%, operating cash flow surpassed BRL 3 billion with double-digit growth, and Q2 net income exceeded BRL 1 billion, up about 6% year over year; mobile revenue growth slowed to about 4.7% | MarketBeat TIM Q2 earnings call highlights | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend snapshot | Trailing annual dividend about $1.16 per ADR (yield about 6.0%) with quarterly payments and the last ex-dividend date June 29, 2026; one-year dividend growth about -14.4%. CompaniesMarketCap prints a lower 2.3% TTM yield that reflects a different trailing-12-month window | StockAnalysis TIMB dividend page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst and valuation context | Consensus Hold with an average price target near $24.77 from 8 analysts, about 29% above the close; Barclays cut its target to $24 from $28, Santander upgraded to Outperform, Goldman Sachs initiated Neutral near $23.40, and Scotiabank holds a target near $28.50 | StockAnalysis forecast page and TheFly analyst notes | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical reference data | 52-week range $18.02 to $28.22; 50-day average about $21.65, 200-day average about $23.27, RSI near 28, average volume about 558,000 shares over 20 days, beta about 0.11. Confirm live chart data. | StockAnalysis TIMB statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This TIMB page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and assumptions as of August 3, 2026, can be wrong, and do not account for every investor circumstance. Verify current market and company data independently before making an investment decision.
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