TG Therapeutics, Inc. research snapshot
TGTX AI stock analysis currently reads TG Therapeutics as a commercial-stage biotechnology company whose investment case is concentrated in BRIUMVI, an anti-CD20 treatment for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, the latest cited close was $52.03 on July 31, implying a market capitalization of about $7.37 billion using 141.72 million shares. Q1 2026 total revenue rose about 70% year over year to $204.9 million, and management raised its 2026 total global revenue target to about $925 million after reporting positive Phase 3 ENHANCE and Phase 1 subcutaneous data. The stock still depends on one marketed product, now carries a larger Blue Owl loan, and has negative trailing free cash flow, so the AI forecast is a scenario range rather than a price promise. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$52.03
Market cap
$7.37 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Commercial-stage biotechnology company with strong BRIUMVI growth, positive ENHANCE and subcutaneous Phase 1 data, and raised 2026 guidance, balanced against higher leverage, negative free cash flow, and single-product concentration risk
Trend status
Price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with neutral momentum after pulling back from the July high near $59.30
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TG Therapeutics turns an approved anti-CD20 medicine into recurring treatment revenue through neurologist adoption, infusion access, payer coverage, and patient persistence. The commercial engine is real and growing, but it is still centered on BRIUMVI. | High |
| Moat | Regulatory approval, clinical data, patents reported through 2042, commercial relationships, and a one-hour twice-yearly infusion create advantages. Roche and Novartis provide strong alternatives, so the moat is useful but not wide, and a subcutaneous option could widen it if the Phase 3 succeeds. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Michael Weiss and CFO Sean Power have led TG since 2011 and have moved it from development into commercialization, raised 2026 guidance, and expanded the buyback. The advisory say-on-pay vote failed at the June 2026 annual meeting, so the next test is whether leverage, buybacks, manufacturing investment, and pipeline spending stay balanced. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose from $233.7 million in 2023 to $329.0 million in 2024 and $616.3 million in 2025. Q1 2026 revenue reached $204.9 million, while TTM revenue was $700.4 million. Reported 2025 net income included a $339.8 million tax benefit and TTM free cash flow was negative $14.2 million, so cash flow is a better quality check than headline EPS. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $52.03, the stock was about 18.13x TTM EPS and 10.53x TTM sales in the financial rigor calculation, with a forward P/E near 31x on consensus non-GAAP EPS. Negative TTM free cash flow and a large tax benefit make earnings multiples less reliable than the revenue, cash, and pipeline assumptions behind them. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was above the 50-day SMA near $49.93 and 200-day SMA near $36.68. RSI near 45 was neutral, and price action had cooled from the 52-week high near $59.30 reached on July 9. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. The main risks are BRIUMVI concentration, payer and competitive pressure, the enlarged Blue Owl loan, negative free cash flow, clinical and regulatory failure, high short interest near 21.65%, and volatile biotech pricing. | High |
| AI confidence | AI research confidence is medium to high because the company reports detailed filings and operating updates. Confidence is lower for three-year price ranges because the subcutaneous Phase 3, pipeline outcomes, and normalized margins are uncertain. | Medium to high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is lower than AI confidence. The evidence supports a growing commercial product with improving pipeline odds, not a guaranteed long-duration compounder. | Low to medium |
TGTX AI stock forecast
This TGTX AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model built on consensus 2026E non-GAAP EPS of $1.57 rather than the tax-boosted GAAP figure, with annual EPS growth assumptions and target P/E multiples. These ranges are illustrative and should not be treated as analyst targets or guaranteed outcomes.
$120 to $140
BRIUMVI revenue keeps compounding toward or above the $925 million 2026 target, the ENHANCE supplemental filing succeeds, the subcutaneous Phase 3 succeeds and expands the franchise, and operating cash flow turns positive. The rigor model point estimate was $134.00 using 45% annual EPS growth and a 28x multiple.
$55 to $70
BRIUMVI remains a growing commercial product, revenue approaches management guidance, operating expenses scale with sales, and clinical programs are mixed but not thesis-breaking. The rigor model point estimate was $61.30 using 25% annual EPS growth and a 20x multiple.
$20 to $35
Prescription growth slows, payer concessions increase, a competitor takes share, the subcutaneous Phase 3 or myasthenia gravis program disappoints, or the debt load constrains spending. The rigor model point estimate was $27.30 using 5% annual EPS growth and a 15x multiple.
TGTX AI technical analysis
The TGTX AI technical analysis snapshot uses the July 31, 2026 U.S. close and StockAnalysis technical indicators. TGTX remained above its medium and long moving averages, but RSI was neutral and the stock had pulled back from the July 9 high near $59.30. Biotech gaps can invalidate chart levels quickly after clinical or regulatory news.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Near support | $49 to $51 | The July 31 snapshot placed the 50-day SMA at $49.93 with a round-number floor near $50. A sustained close below this zone would weaken the short-term trend. |
| Major support | $44 to $48 | This zone sits near the June breakout and consolidation area. The 200-day SMA was about $36.68, well below current price, so this zone is the first meaningful downside test. |
| Recent resistance | $54 to $56 | The July 24 and July 28 highs reached $56.45 and $56.28. A move above this area would need volume and no negative pipeline or access news to carry weight. |
| Higher resistance | $57.58 to $59.30 | The July 27 intraday high near $57.58 and the July 9 52-week high near $59.30 are the next breakout tests. |
| Moving averages | MA50 $49.93; MA200 $36.68 | Price remained above both averages in the cited snapshot, which supports an intact longer trend while the short trend consolidates. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 45.01; average volume about 2.06M | RSI was neutral. Volume confirmation matters because the stock has a wide recent range and clinical updates can dominate ordinary chart signals. |
| Invalidation level | Daily close below $44 | This is a chart-based review trigger, not an automatic sell instruction. Reassess BRIUMVI demand, cash generation, debt, and pipeline assumptions if it occurs. |
TGTX AI trading strategy
A TGTX AI trading strategy should treat price levels as a risk framework around a high-event-risk biotech, not as a personalized recommendation. Pair chart signals with BRIUMVI demand, payer access, cash flow, debt, and clinical data.
Watch for a hold above $49 to $51 followed by a reclaim of $54 to $56 with expanding volume and no adverse BRIUMVI or trial news. The setup is stronger when the 50-day average remains above the 200-day average.
A daily close below the $44 to $48 support zone invalidates the medium-term chart thesis and should trigger a review of the commercial and clinical thesis.
If TGTX pulls back toward $49 to $52 without a fundamental negative event, compare the price move with BRIUMVI prescription growth, gross-to-net trends, cash generation, debt, and upcoming subcutaneous Phase 3 or myasthenia gravis data.
Do not assume a pullback is mean reversion when the cause is a safety signal, failed trial, lost payer access, manufacturing problem, or a lower revenue outlook.
Track quarterly U.S. BRIUMVI revenue, international royalties and sales, operating expenses, free cash flow, the Blue Owl facility, share repurchases, payer coverage, the August 3, 2026 Q2 results, the ENHANCE supplemental filing, and the subcutaneous Phase 3 and myasthenia gravis milestones.
Reduce confidence if valuation relies on the 2025 tax-boosted EPS, if free cash flow stays negative, or if growth requires more leverage or equity than the current model assumes.
Investment research summary
TG Therapeutics develops and commercializes treatments for B-cell diseases. Today the business is primarily BRIUMVI, an approved anti-CD20 therapy for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. Customers and payers pay for disease control, a practical infusion schedule, access support, and a clinical profile that competes with established anti-CD20 therapies.
The moat combines regulatory approval, clinical evidence, patents reported through 2042, commercial know-how, infusion-center access, and payer relationships. It is not a wide consumer moat: Roche, Novartis, new mechanisms, pricing pressure, and future subcutaneous competition can narrow it, while a successful subcutaneous program could widen it.
The thesis fails if BRIUMVI adoption slows, rebates or payer restrictions reduce net revenue, a safety or manufacturing issue interrupts supply, the ENHANCE or subcutaneous programs disappoint, the myasthenia gravis or schizophrenia studies fail to progress, or debt and buybacks consume cash needed for the pipeline. The most dangerous error is confusing a strong launch with a durable multi-product franchise.
Michael Weiss founded TG and has served as Chairman, President, and CEO since 2011. Sean Power has served as CFO since 2011. Management has shown commercial execution, raised 2026 guidance, and used non-dilutive financing plus share repurchases, but the advisory say-on-pay vote failed in June 2026 and the balance sheet now carries a larger loan, so the next capital-allocation test is whether leverage, buybacks, manufacturing investment, and clinical development remain balanced.
B-cell and anti-CD20 therapies address a durable healthcare need in relapsing multiple sclerosis, and an at-home subcutaneous option could expand how many patients can use the class. This is a long-term medical demand trend rather than a guaranteed industry winner. Treatment sequencing, reimbursement, biosimilar or branded competition, new mechanisms, and regulatory requirements determine how much value reaches TG.
The market price discounts continued BRIUMVI growth and meaningful pipeline optionality. The financial rigor calculation showed about 18.13x TTM EPS and 10.53x TTM sales, while TTM free cash flow was negative and net debt was about $239 million. Margin of safety is limited unless revenue growth, cash conversion, and clinical execution remain strong.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest cited share price | $52.03 U.S. close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis price data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.37 billion, verified as $52.03 x 141.72 million shares with 0.05% calculation variance | StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 141.72 million current shares per StockAnalysis; the Q1 2026 10-Q reported 153,093,879 shares outstanding at March 31, 2026, while the 10-K reported 159.69 million on February 25, 2026. Dates and share-count definitions differ, so this remains a source gap. | StockAnalysis and SEC Q1 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $616.287 million, up from $329.004 million in FY2024 | SEC 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $204.918 million, including $194.8 million of U.S. BRIUMVI net product revenue | SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating and net income | Operating income of $34.795 million and net income of $19.777 million, diluted EPS of $0.12 | SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and quality caveat | $447.179 million; includes a $339.789 million income tax benefit. TTM free cash flow was negative $14.19 million. | SEC 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis cash flow data | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and investment securities | About $572.8 million at March 31, 2026. The 10-Q shows $442.2 million cash, $72.2 million short-term, and $61.5 million long-term investment securities, totaling about $576.0 million; StockAnalysis reports $514.4 million for cash and short-term investments. | Q1 2026 results, SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Loan payable and total debt | Non-current loan payable of $745.140 million at March 31, 2026 under the 2026 Blue Owl term loan. StockAnalysis total debt was $753.56 million. | SEC Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 revenue guidance | Total global revenue target about $925 million; U.S. BRIUMVI target $885 million to $900 million, raised from $825 million to $850 million. Q2 2026 U.S. BRIUMVI target about $220 million. | TG Therapeutics Q1 2026 results | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus, average price target $68.43, low $20, high $86 across 8 analysts; FY2026E revenue about $942.5 million and FY2026E non-GAAP EPS about $1.57 | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | MA50 $49.93, MA200 $36.68, RSI 45.01, beta 1.60, 52-week range $25.28 to $59.30, average volume about 2.06 million, short interest 21.65% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Pipeline and financing | ENHANCE Phase 3 topline positive May 27, 2026 with supplemental BLA targeted 2H 2026; subcutaneous Phase 1 positive June 3, 2026 with Phase 3 topline expected year-end 2026 or early 2027; myasthenia gravis Phase 1 positive June 9, 2026 with a registration-directed Phase 2 initiated; schizophrenia Phase 2 initiated July 2026; azer-cel Phase 1 enrolling. New five-year $750 million senior secured facility signed March 2026 and buyback expanded to $300 million with about $200 million remaining. | SEC 8-K filings and TG Therapeutics press releases | August 3, 2026 |
This TGTX AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Verify current filings, prices, clinical updates, and your own risk tolerance before making financial decisions.
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