Bullish case
$310 to $345 over a three-year scenario
More likely if record orders convert into revenue, DDN and energy keep growing organically at 20% plus, fiscal Q4 and 2027 guidance keep rising, and investors hold TEL above 18x forward earnings.
TE Connectivity plc research snapshot
TEL AI Stock Analysis
TEL AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads TE Connectivity plc as a high-quality industrial technology compounder whose record fiscal Q3 2026 results confirmed broad AI, data center, and energy infrastructure demand. The stock closed at $205.69 on July 31, 2026, implying a market capitalization of about $59.55 billion, verified as $205.69 times 289.51 million shares with 0.00% deviation. TE reported record net sales of $5.16 billion for the quarter, up 14% reported and 12% organically, record adjusted EPS of $2.94 up 22%, a record $5.7 billion of orders up 27%, an adjusted operating margin of 22% up 90 basis points, and $883 million of free cash flow. Management raised the fiscal 2026 outlook to about 15% sales growth and 23% adjusted EPS growth and guided fiscal Q4 to $5.25 billion of sales and $3.05 adjusted EPS. The AI view is constructive on business quality and order momentum, but cautious on entry price because TEL trades near 20x trailing earnings and 16.5x forward earnings and still sits below its 200-day moving average after a pullback from the April 2026 high. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$205.69 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$59.55 billion, verified as $205.69 x 289.51 million shares with 0.00% deviation
AI score
75 / 100
Rating
Quality compounder, growth increasingly priced in
Trend status
Mixed: recovery bounce still below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. TEL has nearly two decades of public history, complete SEC filings including the Q3 FY2026 report, the July 22, 2026 earnings release and call transcript, broad analyst coverage, and multiple third-party datasets that cross-validated to within 0.00% on the key figures. The main AI risk is repeating the consensus AI growth story without testing valuation and cycle risk.
- bias Check
- The bias check focused on why a good business may still be a poor entry: AI capital spending can slow, order strength may convert slower than expected, auto and industrial cycles can weaken, acquisitions can underperform, and a 16.5x to 20x multiple can compress even while operations stay solid.
- ai Confidence
- High for filings, market data, Q3 FY2026 results, balance sheet math, and valuation ratios that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, the Q3 FY2026 earnings release, the earnings call transcript, and financial_rigor.py. Medium for three-year scenario ranges and forward valuation because AI capex, energy demand, FX, and cycle conditions can change quickly.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. TEL has verified earnings power, record orders, and cash generation, but investment certainty depends on valuation, the strength of AI and energy demand into fiscal 2027, and whether the stock reclaims its declining long-term averages.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TE Connectivity sells engineered connectors, sensors, and interconnect systems into mission-critical transportation, industrial, energy, data center, medical, and aerospace applications with recurring design-in demand and a TTM gross margin near 36%. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from customer qualification, engineering integration, scale, breadth of catalog, material science, manufacturing know-how, and switching friction in regulated end markets. | High |
| Management | CEO Terrence Curtin is executing the data and power strategy with visible results: record Q3 sales and orders, 22% adjusted EPS growth, and a raised fiscal 2026 outlook, while returning cash and adding bolt-on acquisitions. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Record fiscal Q3 net sales of $5.16 billion grew 14% reported and 12% organically, adjusted EPS rose 22% to a record $2.94, and management now expects about 15% sales and 23% adjusted EPS growth for fiscal 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At about 20.1x trailing EPS and 16.5x forward earnings, TEL is not obviously cheap, but the multiple is reasonable if the AI, energy, and content growth outlook delivers. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock recovered from the July pullback but remains below the 200-day average near $219.69, with 14-day RSI near 51 and weak ADX, so the setup is mixed rather than confirmed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Primary risks are an AI capital spending slowdown, order conversion timing, auto and industrial cycles, optical route changes, acquisition integration, tariffs, FX, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The data base is strong and cross-validated, but the AI should not treat record orders as a guaranteed multi-year growth path, especially with a valuation that already assumes execution. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty for business durability and cash generation, lower certainty for near-term price direction while the stock trades below its 200-day moving average. | Medium |
TEL AI stock forecast
TEL AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The TEL AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a certain price target. The audited model starts from the July 31, 2026 close of $205.69, the fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $11.45, and three-year EPS growth and exit multiple assumptions. The bullish case assumes continued AI, data center, and energy growth with a 19x exit multiple; the base case assumes solid but normalizing execution with a 17x multiple; the bearish case assumes an AI or industrial slowdown with a 14x multiple. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
Base case
$240 to $275 over a three-year scenario
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 10% a year, cash conversion stays near 100%, and TEL holds a 16x to 18x forward multiple as growth normalizes.
Bearish case
$160 to $185 over a three-year scenario
More likely if AI capital spending slows, DDN or energy growth fades, auto and industrial demand weakens, acquisitions dilute returns, or the market compresses the multiple toward the 14x area.
TEL AI technical analysis
TEL AI Technical Analysis
TEL AI technical analysis as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff uses the July 31, 2026 close of $205.69 and Barchart and StockAnalysis.com snapshots. The stock is above the 20-day and 50-day averages but below the 100-day and 200-day averages, with 14-day RSI near 51 and 14-day ADX near 13, which points to a recovery bounce inside a broader consolidation rather than a confirmed uptrend. Because this static page does not fetch request-time market data, live moving averages, volume, and intraday levels should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $205.69 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote; the day range was $205.49 to $211.40 and the stock is down about 9.6% year to date. |
| Near support | $202 to $204 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $202.76 on July 31, a natural first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $190 to $199 | The lower end is the 52-week low near $190.27; a test of this zone without new earnings or order damage would keep the recovery narrative intact. |
| Near resistance | $206 to $211 | The 50-day moving average near $205.82 and the 100-day near $208.99 cluster with the recent intraday high near $211.40. |
| Major upside reference | $219.69 and $252.56 | The 200-day moving average near $219.69 is the first major overhead, with the April 2026 52-week high of $252.56 further above. Both are context levels, not forecasts. |
| 50-day moving average | $205.82 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day average near $205.82 on July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $219.69 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day average near $219.69, still above the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51, ADX near 13 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 51.28 and 14-day ADX near 12.67, which means neutral momentum and no confirmed trend. |
| Volume | About 2.7 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.76 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 2.71 million, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Moderate, with wide daily ranges | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 33% and a 14-day average true range near $7.76, so position sizing should account for moves around earnings and AI news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $202 | A close below the 20-day average would weaken the short-term bounce; a close below the 52-week low near $190 would turn the setup bearish. |
TEL AI trading strategy
TEL AI Trading Strategy Framework
The TEL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for research. It is not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live chart confirmation, position sizing, and the next TE Connectivity earnings update.
Trend-following setup
Wait for TEL to reclaim the 200-day average near $219 with volume above its recent average, then check whether DDN orders, energy growth, and margin data support the move.
A failed push back below the 50-day average near $206 should invalidate the short-term trend setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If TEL retests the $202 to $204 support zone or drifts toward the $190 to $199 area without an AI or orders shock, compare valuation, FCF yield, and peer connector multiples before adding risk.
Do not average down if the next filing shows weaker orders, margin erosion, or rising leverage from acquisitions such as Astrodyne TDI.
Fundamental monitor
Track fiscal Q4 sales guidance near $5.25 billion and adjusted EPS near $3.05, DDN and energy order conversion, book-to-bill, free cash flow, debt after acquisitions, and auto and industrial demand.
Reduce confidence when price action runs ahead of revenue growth, cash conversion, or margin evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay TEL to make power, signal, and data connections reliable inside vehicles, energy networks, factories, medical devices, aerospace systems, and AI data centers. The product is small in cost but important to system reliability, and growth is driven by AI, data, and power investment.
Moat
The moat is not a consumer brand. It is design-in status, testing requirements, customer qualification, material science, manufacturing scale, breadth of SKUs, and engineering support close to customers, which create switching friction.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if AI capital spending slows, DDN and energy order strength proves temporary, auto or industrial cycles weaken, an optical route change reduces copper content, acquisitions dilute returns, or investors stop paying a premium for industrial compounders.
Management
Management has executed the data and power strategy with record Q3 sales and orders, 22% adjusted EPS growth, a raised fiscal 2026 outlook, and about 100% free cash flow conversion. The test is whether order momentum and bolt-on deals keep widening the moat without weakening returns.
Industry trend
TEL sits at the intersection of the largest global technology and infrastructure investment cycle: AI data centers, higher-voltage power connectivity, grid hardening, electrified transportation, automation, aerospace and defense, and compute at the edge.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 16.5x forward earnings and 20.1x trailing EPS, the stock requires continued execution. Margin of safety is better on pullbacks or when orders and free cash flow rise faster than the share price.
Source-backed data
TEL Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEL price | $205.69 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $59.55 billion, verified as $205.69 x 289.51 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 net sales | Record $5.16 billion, up 14% reported and 12% organically year over year | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 EPS | Record adjusted EPS of $2.94, up 22% year over year; GAAP diluted EPS of $2.55, up 19% | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 orders | Record $5.7 billion, up 27% year over year with double-digit order growth in all businesses | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 margins | Adjusted operating margin of 22%, up 90 basis points; GAAP operating margin of 19%, up 10 basis points | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of $1.2 billion and free cash flow of $883 million for the quarter; $3.0 billion and $2.2 billion year to date | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 guidance | Sales of about $5.25 billion up 11%, adjusted EPS of about $3.05 up 18%, GAAP EPS of about $2.84 up 27% | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 outlook | Sales growth of about 15% and adjusted EPS growth of 23%, with more than $2.5 billion of incremental revenue | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| Segment growth | Industrial net sales up 22% reported and 21% organically; Transportation up 7% reported and 5% organically; DDN sales up 34% and energy organic growth about 33% | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| Book-to-bill and backlog | Book-to-bill of 1.1 in the quarter and year to date with record backlog supporting fiscal 2027; DDN year-to-date orders up over 70% | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings call | July 22, 2026 |
| Astrodyne TDI acquisition | Definitive agreement to acquire for about $1.4 billion, annual sales over $250 million, part of the Industrial segment, expected to close by the end of calendar year | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 22, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 26, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $1,239 million, short-term debt of $102 million, long-term debt of $5,530 million | TE Connectivity Q3 FY2026 earnings release balance sheet | July 22, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue of $19.32 billion, net income of $3.02 billion, diluted EPS of $10.21, free cash flow of $3.32 billion | StockAnalysis.com TTM statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 20.13x trailing PE, 16.46x forward PE, 3.08x sales, 4.50x book, 17.96x free cash flow, 1.52% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com valuation data | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy across 19 analysts with an average price target of $246.79, low $209, median $235, high $306 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst moves | UBS lowered to $241 from $261 (Buy), Baird to $225 from $240 (Outperform), Citi to $230 from $250 (Buy), Barclays to $300 from $297 (Overweight), Evercore ISI to In Line from Outperform at $230 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks via TheFly | July 29, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $202.76, 50-day near $205.82, 100-day near $208.99, 200-day near $219.69, 14-day RSI near 51.28, 14-day ADX near 12.67 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.28 million shares short, 2.86% of shares outstanding, 3.62 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com short selling statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue estimate of $19.85 billion with adjusted EPS of $11.45, FY2027 revenue of $21.66 billion with adjusted EPS of $12.91 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $3.12 per share for a 1.52% yield, with a quarterly dividend of $0.78 and an ex-dividend date of August 21, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend data and TE Connectivity dividend release | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This TEL AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, AI capital spending, industry demand, rates, tariffs, FX, or macro conditions change.
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