Atlassian Corporation research snapshot
TEAM AI stock analysis currently sees Atlassian Corporation as a high-gross-margin workflow software platform whose cloud, enterprise, and AI products are growing quickly, while its share price reflects material execution and profitability questions. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the July 10 intraday price was $94.27 and price multiplied by 253.77 million shares produced market capitalization near $23.92 billion. The latest reported quarter delivered 32% revenue growth and 31% free-cash-flow margin, but GAAP losses, stock-based compensation, acquisition integration, and competition remain important. This TEAM AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$94.27
Market cap
$23.92 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-quality workflow platform, execution-sensitive value case
Trend status
Short-term recovery, still below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Atlassian sells collaboration, developer workflow, work management, and service-management software led by Jira, Confluence, Jira Service Management, Loom, and Rovo. | High |
| Moat | Switching costs, workflow data, developer and IT-service ecosystems, user-led adoption, and cross-product expansion support retention, though Microsoft, ServiceNow, GitHub, and Salesforce compete for the same budgets. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-founder and CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes is pushing Enterprise, AI, and the System of Work. The test is whether AI investment and acquisitions improve durable per-share economics. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.787 billion, cloud revenue rose 29% to $1.132 billion, and free cash flow was $561.3 million, or 31% of revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $94.27, financial_rigor.py calculated about 15.0x forward EPS using the market forward-PE reference and 19.9x trailing free cash flow per share. GAAP net income remains negative, so conventional trailing P/E is not meaningful. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TEAM had recovered above its 50-day moving average near $88.18 but remained below its 200-day moving average near $113.57 after a sharp 52-week decline. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company is changing its deployment model while funding AI and acquisitions, and because reported free cash flow differs materially from GAAP profitability after stock-based compensation and restructuring. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, market-cap math, and published technical references. Medium for scenario outcomes because AI monetization and software multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The platform and cloud momentum are credible, while the investment result depends on turning growth into durable GAAP economics without diluting owners through compensation or costly acquisitions. | Medium |
TEAM AI stock forecast
The TEAM AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $94.27 July 10 intraday reference rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using $6.27 forward EPS produced mechanical three-year outputs near $244.90 in a bull case, $154.50 in a base case, and $79.00 in a bear case. These are valuation scenarios, not predictions, and depend heavily on growth, margins, and valuation multiples.
$155 to $245
More likely if cloud growth remains near the mid-20% range, Rovo and collections convert AI engagement into paid expansion, enterprise contracts stay large, GAAP margins improve after restructuring, and the market awards a higher software multiple.
$94 to $155
More likely if Atlassian meets FY2026 revenue growth guidance near 24%, preserves strong free cash flow, manages the Data Center transition, and shows steady but not explosive AI monetization.
$79 to $94
More likely if cloud seat expansion slows, AI is bundled rather than monetized, enterprise competition compresses pricing, acquisition and restructuring costs persist, or investors focus on GAAP losses and stock-based compensation.
TEAM AI technical analysis
TEAM AI technical analysis starts from the $94.27 July 10, 2026 intraday reference. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $88.18, a 200-day moving average of $113.57, RSI of 54.33, and a 52-week range of $56.01 to $220.30 around the cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $94.27 | StockAnalysis listed this intraday price at 9:41 AM EDT on July 10, 2026. The prior close was $90.71. |
| Near support | $88 to $91 | The 50-day moving average was $88.18 and the July 9 close was $90.71, making this a nearby short-term support area. |
| Near resistance | $113 to $114 | The 200-day moving average was $113.57. Reclaiming that level would be a more meaningful trend confirmation than a one-day rebound. |
| 50-day moving average | About $88.18 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot around the cutoff. Price was above this short-term reference at the intraday observation. |
| 200-day moving average | About $113.57 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot around the cutoff. Price remained below this long-term reference. |
| Momentum | Neutral to improving | RSI was 54.33, which is neither deeply oversold nor overbought. A sustained move above the 200-day average would improve the trend read. |
| Volume | About 4.26M 20-day average shares | StockAnalysis listed average 20-day volume of 4,255,346 shares. Breakouts should be judged against this reference. |
| Volatility | Elevated software re-rating risk | The 52-week range of $56.01 to $220.30 shows that earnings guidance, AI expectations, and software valuation multiples can drive large moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained failure below $88 support | A break below the 50-day area, especially alongside weaker cloud growth or guidance, would weaken a recovery setup. |
TEAM AI trading strategy
The TEAM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for following a volatile enterprise software stock. It is not personalized advice and should be combined with position sizing, an earnings calendar, stop or invalidation rules, and current market data.
Watch for TEAM to hold above the $88 to $91 support area and reclaim the $113 to $114 200-day moving-average zone on volume near or above its 20-day average. Confirm that the next earnings release sustains cloud growth and free cash flow.
A failed recovery that breaks below $88, or a guidance reset tied to cloud growth, AI monetization, or enterprise demand, should invalidate the setup.
If TEAM retests the $88 to $91 area while reported cloud growth, ARR, and free cash flow remain intact, monitor whether buyers regain the 50-day average before treating the pullback as a reversal candidate.
Do not average down solely because the share price is lower if GAAP losses widen, stock-based compensation remains elevated, or competitive bundling reduces expansion.
Track total and cloud revenue growth, Cloud ARR, customers above $10,000 in Cloud ARR, remaining performance obligations, free cash flow margin, GAAP operating margin, stock-based compensation, net debt, share count, and AI product adoption.
Reduce confidence if management funds growth with increasingly dilutive compensation or acquisitions without evidence of durable margin and per-share cash-flow gains.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Atlassian to plan, build, document, support, and coordinate work across software, IT, business, and service teams. The value proposition is a connected system of work that replaces disconnected tickets, documents, and workflows.
Atlassian benefits from developer and IT-service adoption, workflow data, integrations, marketplace extensions, collaboration habits, and cross-product expansion. The moat is strongest where Jira, Confluence, and service management become embedded in daily processes, but it faces bundled and AI-native alternatives.
The thesis fails if AI reduces paid seats faster than it creates monetizable usage, if customers consolidate around Microsoft, ServiceNow, GitHub, or Salesforce, if the Data Center transition disrupts accounts, or if costs and dilution outpace cash-flow growth.
CEO and co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has concentrated strategy around Enterprise, AI, and the System of Work. Capital-allocation quality depends on the returns from Rovo investment, DX and Browser Company integration, buybacks, and stock-based compensation discipline.
AI is changing enterprise software from a collection of systems of record toward agent-assisted systems of action. Atlassian has valuable workflow context and distribution, but the same transition lowers barriers for large suites and specialized AI tools.
At roughly 19.9x trailing free cash flow per share and about 15.0x market forward EPS, TEAM has a more defensible valuation reference than at its prior high, but it has limited margin of safety if AI monetization, GAAP margins, or cloud growth disappoint.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM price and market capitalization | $94.27 intraday and $23.92 billion, price times 253.77M shares | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 revenue | $1.787 billion, up 32% year over year | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 cloud revenue | $1.132 billion, up 29% year over year | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 free cash flow | $561.3 million, 31% margin | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 GAAP net loss | $98.4 million, including restructuring charges | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and long-term debt | $1.136 billion cash and $989.1 million long-term debt at March 31, 2026 | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM financial reference | $6.19 billion revenue, negative $216.81M net income, and $1.205B free cash flow | StockAnalysis financial statements | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day MA $88.18, 200-day MA $113.57, RSI 54.33, and 20-day average volume 4.26M | StockAnalysis statistics | July 11, 2026 |
This TEAM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, chart levels, and personal suitability before making any decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
