Atlassian Corporation research snapshot
TEAM AI stock analysis currently sees Atlassian Corporation as a high-gross-margin workflow software platform whose cloud, enterprise, and AI products are growing quickly, while the share price still reflects material execution and profitability questions. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, the July 31 close was $101.02 and price multiplied by 253.77 million shares produced market capitalization near $25.63 billion. The latest reported quarter delivered 32% revenue growth, 29% cloud growth, and a 31% free-cash-flow margin, but GAAP losses, stock-based compensation, the Data Center transition, and competition remain important. This TEAM AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$101.02
Market cap
$25.63 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality workflow platform with accelerating cloud growth and a more reasonable valuation reference
Trend status
Recovering above the 50-day moving average but still below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Atlassian sells collaboration, developer workflow, work management, and service-management software led by Jira, Confluence, Jira Service Management, Loom, and Rovo. | High |
| Moat | Switching costs, workflow data, developer and IT-service ecosystems, user-led adoption, and cross-product expansion support retention, though Microsoft, ServiceNow, GitHub, and Salesforce compete for the same budgets. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-founder and CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes is pushing Enterprise, AI, and the System of Work. The test is whether AI investment and acquisitions improve durable per-share economics. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.787 billion, cloud revenue rose 29% to $1.132 billion, and free cash flow was $561.3 million, or 31% of revenue. | High |
| Valuation | At $101.02, StockAnalysis listed a forward P/E near 17.0x, and financial_rigor.py verified about 21.3x trailing free cash flow per share. GAAP net income remains negative, so conventional trailing P/E is not meaningful. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TEAM closed at $101.02 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $90.53 but below its 200-day moving average near $108.95 after a steep 52-week decline. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company is ending its Data Center offering while funding AI and acquisitions, and because reported free cash flow differs materially from GAAP profitability after stock-based compensation and restructuring. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, market-cap math, and published technical references. Medium for scenario outcomes because AI monetization and software multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The platform and cloud momentum are credible, while the investment result depends on turning growth into durable GAAP economics without diluting owners through compensation or costly acquisitions. | Medium |
TEAM AI stock forecast
The TEAM AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $101.02 July 31, 2026 close rather than a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using the FY2027 consensus forward EPS of $6.10 produced mechanical three-year outputs near $262 in a bull case, $158 in a base case, and $79 in a bear case. These are valuation scenarios, not predictions, and depend heavily on growth, margins, and valuation multiples.
$155 to $260
More likely if cloud growth remains near the mid-20% range, Rovo and Teamwork Collections convert AI engagement into paid expansion, enterprise contracts stay large, GAAP margins improve after restructuring, and the market awards a higher software multiple.
$95 to $160
More likely if Atlassian meets FY2026 revenue growth guidance near 24% and cloud growth near 26.5%, preserves strong free cash flow, manages the Data Center end-of-life transition, and shows steady but not explosive AI monetization.
$60 to $95
More likely if cloud seat expansion slows, AI is bundled rather than monetized, enterprise competition compresses pricing, restructuring and acquisition costs persist, or investors focus on GAAP losses and stock-based compensation.
TEAM AI technical analysis
TEAM AI technical analysis starts from the $101.02 July 31, 2026 close. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average of $90.53, a 200-day moving average of $108.95, RSI of 58.55, a 20-day average volume of 3,749,010 shares, and a 52-week range of $56.01 to $199.09 around the cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $101.02 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $101.02, up 2.95%. The prior close was $98.12 and the day range was $95.35 to $101.62. |
| Near support | $95 to $98 | The July 31 close was $101.02, the prior close was $98.12, and the July 31 low was $95.35, making this a nearby short-term support area. |
| Near resistance | $109 to $113 | The 200-day moving average was $108.95. Reclaiming that zone would be a more meaningful trend confirmation than a one-day rebound. |
| 50-day moving average | About $90.53 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot around the cutoff. Price was above this short-term reference at the July 31 close. |
| 200-day moving average | About $108.95 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot around the cutoff. Price remained below this long-term reference. |
| Momentum | Neutral to improving | RSI was 58.55, which is neither deeply oversold nor overbought. A sustained move above the 200-day average would improve the trend read. |
| Volume | About 3.75M 20-day average shares | StockAnalysis listed average 20-day volume of 3,749,010 shares. Breakouts should be judged against this reference. |
| Volatility | Elevated software re-rating risk | The 52-week range of $56.01 to $199.09 shows that earnings guidance, AI expectations, and software valuation multiples can drive large moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained failure below $95 support | A break below the $95 to $98 area, especially alongside weaker cloud growth or guidance, would weaken a recovery setup. |
TEAM AI trading strategy
The TEAM AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for following a volatile enterprise software stock. It is not personalized advice and should be combined with position sizing, an earnings calendar, stop or invalidation rules, and current market data.
Watch for TEAM to hold above the $95 to $98 support area and reclaim the $109 to $113 zone around the 200-day moving average on volume near or above its 20-day average. Confirm that the August 6, 2026 earnings release sustains cloud growth and free cash flow.
A failed recovery that breaks below $95, or a guidance reset tied to cloud growth, AI monetization, or enterprise demand, should invalidate the setup.
If TEAM retests the $95 to $98 area while reported cloud growth, ARR, and free cash flow remain intact, monitor whether buyers regain the 50-day average before treating the pullback as a reversal candidate.
Do not average down solely because the share price is lower if GAAP losses widen, stock-based compensation remains elevated, or competitive bundling reduces expansion.
Track total and cloud revenue growth, Cloud ARR, customers above $10,000 in Cloud ARR, remaining performance obligations, free cash flow margin, GAAP operating margin, stock-based compensation, net debt, share count, and AI product adoption.
Reduce confidence if management funds growth with increasingly dilutive compensation or acquisitions without evidence of durable margin and per-share cash-flow gains.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Atlassian to plan, build, document, support, and coordinate work across software, IT, business, and service teams. The value proposition is a connected system of work that replaces disconnected tickets, documents, and workflows.
Atlassian benefits from developer and IT-service adoption, workflow data, integrations, marketplace extensions, collaboration habits, and cross-product expansion. The moat is strongest where Jira, Confluence, and service management become embedded in daily processes, but it faces bundled and AI-native alternatives.
The thesis fails if AI reduces paid seats faster than it creates monetizable usage, if customers consolidate around Microsoft, ServiceNow, GitHub, or Salesforce, if the Data Center end-of-life transition disrupts accounts, or if costs and dilution outpace cash-flow growth.
CEO and co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has concentrated strategy around Enterprise, AI, and the System of Work. Capital-allocation quality depends on the returns from Rovo investment, DX and Browser Company integration, buybacks, and stock-based compensation discipline.
AI is changing enterprise software from a collection of systems of record toward agent-assisted systems of action. Atlassian has valuable workflow context and distribution, but the same transition lowers barriers for large suites and specialized AI tools.
At roughly 17x forward earnings and about 21.3x trailing free cash flow per share, TEAM has a more defensible valuation reference than at its prior high, but it has limited margin of safety if AI monetization, GAAP margins, or cloud growth disappoint.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM price and market capitalization | $101.02 close and $25.63 billion, price times 253.77M shares | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 revenue | $1,787.0 million, up 32% year over year | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 cloud revenue | $1,132.4 million, up 29% year over year | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 free cash flow | $561.3 million, 31% margin | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 GAAP net loss | $98.4 million, including restructuring charges | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 remaining performance obligations | $3,996 million, up 37% year over year | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and long-term debt | $1.136 billion cash and $989.1 million long-term debt at March 31, 2026 | Atlassian FY2026 Q3 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financial reference | $6.19 billion revenue, negative $216.81M net income, and $1.205B free cash flow | StockAnalysis financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day MA $90.53, 200-day MA $108.95, RSI 58.55, and 20-day average volume 3.75M | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This TEAM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that can be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, chart levels, and personal suitability before making any decision.
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