Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. research snapshot
TCBI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Texas Capital Bancshares as a well-capitalized Texas-focused bank whose strategic transformation is now showing measurable results. The stock closed at $98.85 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $4.30 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $98.85 times 43.47 million shares outstanding with 0.07% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages and Google Finance. The Q2 2026 report, released July 22, 2026, delivered net income available to common stockholders of $80.6 million, up 10% year over year, diluted EPS of $1.83, adjusted EPS of $1.88 up 15%, record non-interest income of $75.1 million up 34% on an adjusted basis, and record tangible book value per share of $76.98 up 10% for a ninth consecutive quarterly record. Investment banking fees grew 34% to $42.8 million, and management raised the low end of full-year 2026 non-interest income guidance to $270 million to $290 million while keeping total revenue growth guidance in the mid to high single digits. Offsetting the momentum is a near-term net interest margin that management guides to the low to mid 320 basis points in Q3, criticized loans that rose to $696.3 million, a commercial real estate portfolio expected to decline about 12% on average in 2026, two Sell ratings from JPMorgan and Barclays, short interest near 9.55% of shares outstanding, and a stock trading below its 50-day moving average near $101.25 while still above its 200-day moving average near $96.37. This page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$98.85
Market cap
$4.30 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Profitable Texas-focused bank that delivered record Q2 2026 fee income and a ninth consecutive quarterly record in tangible book value while executing its full-service transformation, but now trades below its 50-day moving average after the July 22 report
Trend status
Below the 50-day moving average near $101.25 but above the 200-day moving average near $96.37, with 14-day RSI near 41.55 after the Q2 2026 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Texas Capital is a Texas-focused full-service financial firm with commercial banking, investment banking, wealth management, treasury services, mortgage finance, and Bask Bank. Q2 2026 delivered record fee income with non-interest income up 34% to $75.1 million, or 22% of total revenue, and adjusted EPS up 15% to $1.88. | High |
| Moat | The moat is geographic and relationship based: Texas presence, deep commercial client relationships, the treasury product suite, investment banking distribution, the wealth management flywheel with assets under management up 15% to $4.8 billion, and a regulated bank and trust. It is narrower than national peers but deeper than most community banks in its Texas markets. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Rob C. Holmes and CFO Matt Scurlock have executed the transformation since late 2021: launched the investment bank, sold BankDirect, added an inaugural common dividend, repurchased 16.5% of the stock since the transformation began, and kept a conservative reserve posture with downside scenario weightings at their highest level since Holmes arrived. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income available to common stockholders rose 10% to $80.6 million with diluted EPS of $1.83 and adjusted EPS of $1.88, up 15%. TTM net income is about $347 million with EPS near $7.72, and tangible book value per share reached a ninth consecutive record of $76.98. | High |
| Valuation | At $98.85, financial_rigor.py calculates 12.80x TTM EPS, 1.28x book value, 3.38x sales, and a 0.81% dividend yield using current verified inputs, with a forward PE of 12.99 reported by StockAnalysis. | High |
| Technical trend | TCBI closed at $98.85 on July 31, 2026, below its 50-day moving average near $101.25 but above its 200-day moving average near $96.37, with 14-day RSI near 41.55, indicating momentum cooled after the Q2 report. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are criticized loans rising to $696.3 million, commercial real estate balances expected to decline about 12% on average in 2026, near-term net interest margin compression to the low to mid 320 basis points, irrational Texas competition on price and structure, elevated short interest near 9.55% of shares outstanding, and key-person risk during the transformation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed facts and math that cross-validated across the Q2 2026 earnings release, StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, and SEC EDGAR XBRL. Medium for the forecast because fee income ramp, credit costs, net interest margin, and competition can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The franchise is improving with record fee income and record tangible book value, but the current price already reflects much of the transformation progress, and the stock trades below its 50-day moving average with a mixed analyst reaction to Q2. | Medium |
TCBI AI stock forecast
The TCBI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $98.85 and trailing EPS near $7.72. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $77, a base area near $126, and a bullish area near $163 before dividends, using EPS growth of 0%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 10x, 13x, and 15x over three years. The range is wide because Texas Capital combines a stabilizing Texas banking franchise with a higher-margin but still ramping investment banking and fee business.
$155 to $180
More likely if fee income keeps compounding, investment banking and trading fees stay near $40 million to $45 million per quarter with a growing pipeline, wealth management assets under management keep expanding, net interest income grows per the Q3 guide of $265 million to $270 million, credit costs hold within the 35 to 40 basis point provision guide, and investors award a mid-teens earnings multiple reflecting the new fee mix.
$115 to $135
More likely if fee income grows at a mid-to-high single-digit rate, investment banking revenue stabilizes, net interest margin settles in the low to mid 320 basis points before recovering in Q4, loan growth stays mid-to-high single digits, criticized loans stabilize, and TCBI trades near a 12x to 13x earnings multiple.
$70 to $90
More likely if fee income growth stalls, criticized loans keep rising, commercial real estate losses materialize faster than the guided 12% average decline, net interest margin compresses further, irrational Texas competition forces credit loosening, or the transformation timeline extends and expense growth outpaces revenue.
TCBI AI technical analysis
TCBI AI technical analysis is neutral to slightly weak as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $98.85 on July 31, 2026, below its 50-day moving average near $101.25 but above its 200-day moving average near $96.37, with 14-day RSI near 41.55 and beta of 0.67. The stock has traded lower from its 52-week high of $108.92, and the 200-day moving average is the key support that keeps the longer trend intact.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $98.85 | Close on July 31, 2026 per StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance; market cap math uses 43.47 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $96.00 to $97.00 | The 200-day moving average sits near $96.37 and is the first support that the stock must hold to keep the longer trend intact. |
| Secondary support | $90.00 | A round-number support area that could be tested if the broader market pulls back or credit concerns intensify. |
| Near resistance | $101.25 | The 50-day moving average is the first overhead resistance after the post-Q2 pullback; a reclaim would signal momentum stabilizing. |
| Secondary resistance | $108.92 | The 52-week high is the most critical resistance. A breakout above this level would open the path to new highs and likely require a catalyst and volume confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $101.25, 200-day near $96.37 | TCBI is below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average, a mixed-to-constructive long-term posture. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 41.55 | RSI has cooled from the earlier rally and sits in neutral territory, leaving room for either direction without an overbought or oversold signal. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume about 585,000 shares | Google Finance reports average volume near 585,000 shares while StockAnalysis reports about 522,000; watch for volume confirmation on any breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.67 | TCBI has below-market beta, but bank-specific fee, credit, and rate news can still create sharp single-day moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $96.37, then $90 | A close below the 200-day moving average near $96.37 would weaken the intermediate trend. A break below $90 and then the $75.41 52-week low would damage the longer setup. |
TCBI AI trading strategy
The TCBI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a Texas regional bank stock executing a strategic transformation with record fee income. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, earnings dates, fee income trends, credit metrics, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for TCBI to reclaim and hold the $101.25 50-day moving average and then clear the $108.92 52-week high on above-average volume, supported by continued fee income growth, stable credit, and constructive net interest income commentary.
A rally that fails back below the 200-day moving average near $96.37, or a close below $90, should invalidate the near-term trend setup.
If TCBI pulls back toward the $90 to $96 zone without deterioration in fee income, investment banking pipeline, credit metrics, or management guidance, compare the price movement against the book value trajectory near $77 and the analyst consensus target near $108 to $109.
Do not average down mechanically if criticized loans keep rising, commercial real estate losses accelerate, net interest margin compresses beyond guidance, or the transformation timeline extends.
Track investment banking and trading fees ($42.8 million in Q2, guided to $40 million to $45 million in Q3), wealth management fees and assets under management, non-interest income mix near 22% of revenue, net interest margin (3.28% in Q2, Q3 guide in the low to mid 320 basis points), provision guidance of 35 to 40 basis points, criticized loans, net charge-offs, commercial real estate trajectory, CET1 near 12.1%, and share repurchase activity.
Reduce confidence if fee income growth stalls, credit costs exceed the provision guide, the stock breaks the 200-day moving average, or management signals a capital-preservation posture.
Investment research summary
Texas Capital earns money through commercial lending and deposits, investment banking and advisory fees, wealth management, treasury product fees, mortgage finance, and consumer digital banking through Bask Bank. The strategy is to transform from a loan-oriented commercial bank into a full-service financial institution that is less dependent on the spread between gathered deposits and made loans.
The moat is geographic and relational: Texas metro presence, deep commercial client relationships, treasury and payment capabilities, investment banking distribution, the wealth management flywheel, and a regulated bank and trust. Management explicitly builds the model to keep earning a return on capital as deposits become more commoditized across the industry.
The thesis fails if the fee-income transformation stalls, criticized loans keep rising from Texas multifamily commercial real estate and macro-pressured C&I credits, commercial real estate losses accelerate beyond the guided 12% average decline, net interest margin compresses more than guided, the investment banking build-out costs more than it returns, or key executives leave.
CEO Rob C. Holmes has led the strategic transformation since late 2021 with a five-year plan: launching the investment bank, divesting BankDirect, adding a first-ever common dividend, and repurchasing 16.5% of shares since the transformation began. CFO Matt Scurlock guided Q3 net interest income to $265 million to $270 million and kept the full-year provision guide at 35 to 40 basis points.
Texas banking benefits from population growth, business formation, and a strong state economy, and Texas M&A is creating client migration and talent opportunities. The broader industry is shifting toward fee income, higher costs of liquidity, deposit commoditization, and a commercial real estate supply and demand imbalance that favors disciplined lenders.
At $98.85 the stock trades at about 12.8x trailing EPS, 1.28x book value, and a 0.81% dividend yield, below the analyst consensus target near $108 to $109. Margin of safety is moderate, with a more attractive entry if the stock holds the 200-day moving average while fee income and credit trends stay on track.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCBI price | $98.85 close on July 31, 2026 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.30 billion, verified as $98.85 x 43.47 million shares with 0.07% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, StockAnalysis.com, and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 43.47 million shares outstanding | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net income available to common stockholders $80.6 million up 10% year over year, diluted EPS $1.83, adjusted EPS $1.88 up 15% | Q2 2026 earnings release (GlobeNewswire), cross-checked against SEC EDGAR XBRL net income of $84.9 million and EPS of $1.83 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and fees | Total revenue $335.5 million up 9%, non-interest income $75.1 million record up 34% adjusted, investment banking fees $42.8 million up 34%, wealth management fees $5.1 million up 38%, treasury product fees $12.5 million up 8% | Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM earnings | Approximately $1.27 billion revenue, $347.36 million net income, and $7.72 EPS | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Total assets $33.9 billion, total deposits $28.9 billion, stockholders equity $3.65 billion, book value per share $77.01, tangible book value per share $76.98, both up 10% year over year | Q2 2026 earnings release and SEC EDGAR XBRL (stockholders equity $3.648 billion) | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital and credit | CET1 12.1%, total capital 14.7%, criticized loans $696.3 million, non-accrual loans $124.0 million at 0.50% of loans, allowance to loans 1.34% | Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation | PE 12.80x, forward PE 12.99, PB 1.28x, PS 3.38x, ROE about 10.2%, dividend yield 0.81%, payout ratio 5.18% | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 52-week range $75.41 to $108.92, 50-day moving average $101.25, 200-day moving average $96.37, 14-day RSI 41.55, beta 0.67 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.15 million shares short, 9.55% of shares outstanding, 7.14 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average price target $109.31 across 13 analysts on StockAnalysis.com and $108.33 across 9 analysts on Google Finance, range $100 to $115, with 2 Buy, 5 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
This TCBI AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fee income growth, credit costs, net interest margin, commercial real estate conditions, interest rates, deposit competition, regulation, or market sentiment change.
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