Frontdoor, Inc. research snapshot
FTDR AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Frontdoor, Inc. as a home warranty and service plan provider with a recurring subscription model, near-record renewal rates, strong cash generation, and a leveraged balance sheet. The stock closed at $72.63 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $5.10 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $72.63 times 70.23 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Revenue reached about $2.12 billion over the trailing twelve months with net income of about $259 million and free cash flow of about $386 million, after a Q1 2026 that grew revenue 6% to $451 million, net income 11% to $41 million, and adjusted EPS 14% to $0.73. Management expects total member count to grow about 1% in 2026, the first organic increase since 2020, and reaffirmed full-year revenue of $2.155 billion to $2.195 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $565 million to $580 million. The stock peaked at $80.73 on July 7, 2026, then corrected about 10% to $72.63, now trading below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages but above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages. The next earnings report is scheduled for August 6, 2026. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$72.63
Market cap
$5.10 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
High-quality subscription model, high leverage
Trend status
Correction after the early-July peak, still above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Frontdoor sells annual home warranty service plans through a large network of contractors, producing recurring subscription revenue with near-record renewal rates and a fast-growing non-warranty HVAC upgrade business. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is moderate: the American Home Shield brand, a large and established contractor network, and multi-year subscriber relationships create switching costs. Competition from other warranty providers, DIY home service apps, and newer digital platforms limits pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Bill Cobb and CFO Jason Bailey are executing a member growth, margin, and capital allocation plan. Q1 2026 beat consensus, renewal rates improved about 200 basis points in 2025, and the company bought back $60 million of shares in the quarter. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $2.12 billion, net income of $259 million, and free cash flow of $386 million. Gross margin near 55% and operating margin near 19.45%, with ROE elevated because of high financial leverage rather than pure operating strength. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The stock trades at 20.64x TTM earnings and 15.87x forward earnings, with a 13.22x price to trailing free cash flow. The 22.27x price-to-book ratio reflects a thin equity base, not a rich earnings multiple on the recurring model. | Medium |
| Technical trend | FTDR hit a 52-week high of $80.73 on July 7, 2026, then corrected to $72.63. It trades above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day and 20-day averages, with a neutral RSI near 48. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the 5.21x debt-to-equity ratio, sensitivity to existing home sales and interest rates, customer acquisition costs, contractor and parts inflation, the upcoming August 6 earnings report, and competition from alternative home protection models. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for SEC filing data, the Q1 2026 report, market cap math, and key financial metrics. Lower confidence for future member trends, housing market direction, and near-term stock price. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business is solid and cash generative, but the stock is below its July peak, the balance sheet carries significant leverage, and the housing market remains a cyclical risk. | Medium-low |
FTDR AI stock forecast
The FTDR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $72.63 cutoff price, not a specific price prediction. The three-scenario framework applies analyst consensus EPS of about $4.55 for 2026 with growth rates of 13%, 9%, and 2% and exit multiples of 18x, 15x, and 11x over three years, producing approximate target areas. The bullish case requires member growth, margin expansion, and stable housing. The base case assumes steady subscription revenue with modest earnings growth. The bearish case assumes housing weakness or margin compression.
$105 to $130
More likely if Frontdoor sustains member count growth, holds renewal rates near record highs, expands adjusted EBITDA margins, keeps the HVAC upgrade and non-warranty businesses compounding, and the market applies a premium multiple to growing earnings.
$76 to $95
More likely if subscription revenue grows at mid-single digits, margins hold steady, member count rises about 1%, and the stock trades between 14x and 16x forward earnings, in line with recent history and the analyst target near $75.75.
$42 to $58
More likely if existing home sales stay near 30-year lows, member growth stalls, customer acquisition costs rise, parts and contractor inflation pressures margins, or a leveraged balance sheet amplifies a slowdown, pushing the multiple toward the low end of the historical range.
FTDR AI technical analysis
FTDR AI technical analysis starts from the $72.63 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 3 static page. The stock set a 52-week high of $80.73 on July 7, then corrected about 10%. It still holds above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which keeps the medium-term structure constructive, but the loss of the 5-day and 20-day averages signals near-term softness. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $72.63 | Latest verified close as of July 31, 2026, used as the reference for this static page. |
| Near resistance | $74 to $75.5 | The 20-day moving average near $74.38 and recent rebound highs form the first overhead zone. A reclaim would signal that the correction is stabilizing. |
| Next resistance | $80.73 | The 52-week high set on July 7, 2026. A clean break above this level would confirm trend continuation toward new highs. |
| Near support | $70 to $71 | The 50-day moving average near $70.48 is the first support zone on a continued pullback. |
| Secondary support | $65.6 | The 100-day moving average near $65.59 is the next meaningful support if the 50-day average fails. |
| 200-day moving average | $62.09 | The 200-day trend line near $62.09 sits well below price, confirming the longer-term uptrend remains intact. |
| 52-week low | $48.47 | The lowest close over the past 52 weeks, far below current price and consistent with the broader uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48, ADX near 20 | The 14-day RSI near 48.46 is neutral and the 14-day ADX near 20 indicates a weaker trend after the July pullback. |
| Volume | About 520,000 average shares | The 20-day average volume near 518,000 shares is moderate. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout attempt. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.46, 14-day historical volatility near 24% | Above-market beta means the stock tends to move more than the broader market, requiring wider position sizing and tighter risk control. |
| Invalidation | Close below $70.48, then $65.59 | A close below the 50-day moving average near $70.48 would weaken the near-term structure. A move below the 100-day near $65.59 would challenge the medium-term uptrend. |
FTDR AI trading strategy
The FTDR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical levels, position sizing, and clear invalidation conditions. The August 6, 2026 earnings report is a scheduled catalyst that can change the setup quickly.
If FTDR reclaims the $74 to $75.5 zone with expanding volume and holds above the 50-day moving average near $70.48, the medium-term uptrend may resume. Confirm with Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA landing in the guided ranges of $635 million to $650 million and $198 million to $208 million.
A failed reclaim or a close back below the 50-day moving average should reduce trend conviction. Position size for beta of 1.46 and for the earnings event on August 6.
If FTDR pulls back toward the $70 to $71 support zone without a fundamental thesis break, compare price action with the August 6 earnings report, member count trends, and margin guidance before considering a position.
Do not average down solely because of the subscription model. The high debt-to-equity ratio near 5.21x means the equity is more sensitive to business slowdowns and interest costs.
Track quarterly member counts, renewal rates, average revenue per customer, adjusted EBITDA margins, free cash flow conversion above 60%, buyback pace, and housing market indicators like existing home sales.
Lower the rating if member growth stalls, renewal rates fall from record levels, margins compress, or debt reduction does not materialize while the stock trades below its 20-day moving average.
Investment research summary
Frontdoor sells annual home warranty service plans that cover the repair or replacement of home systems and appliances, acting as an intermediary between homeowners and a network of service contractors. The model generates recurring subscription revenue with near-record renewal rates and an expanding HVAC upgrade and non-warranty business.
The American Home Shield brand, a large and established contractor network, and multi-year subscriber relationships create moderate switching costs. The 2-10 integration onto a single platform adds scale. But the industry has low entry barriers and competition from other warranty providers and newer digital home service platforms.
The thesis can fail if a housing downturn reduces new subscribers, repair and parts inflation hurts margins, customer acquisition costs rise faster than lifetime value, competition erodes pricing, debt service absorbs cash flow, or the August 6 earnings report disappoints.
Bill Cobb, Chairman and CEO, and Jason Bailey, SVP and CFO, delivered a Q1 2026 beat with revenue up 6%, adjusted EPS up 14%, and $60 million of buybacks. Renewal rates improved about 200 basis points in 2025, and board additions of Dennis Howard and Hilla Sferruzza add finance and real estate expertise. Key-person risk is moderate.
Home warranty and protection services benefit from an aging US housing stock and awareness of home repair costs. However, the model is tied to housing turnover, interest rates, and consumer discretionary spending, with existing home sales near 30-year lows a persistent headwind.
At 20.64x TTM earnings, 15.87x forward earnings, and 13.22x price to trailing free cash flow, the valuation assumes steady earnings growth. The thin equity base from high leverage amplifies both upside and downside. A meaningful margin of safety requires confidence in member and margin trends into and beyond the August 6 report.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR price | $72.63 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.10 billion, computed as $72.63 x 70.23 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.12 billion, up 12.12% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.09 billion, up 13.56% from $1.84 billion in FY2024 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $259 million, EPS of $3.52 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $386 million on operating cash flow of $411 million and capex of $25 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash of $603 million, total debt of $1.20 billion, net debt of $596 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value and leverage | Shareholders equity of $230 million, book value per share of $3.26, debt-to-equity of 5.21 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 20.64x TTM PE, 15.87x forward PE, 13.22x P/FCF, 22.27x P/B, 11.70x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis.com statistics, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Margin and return profile | Gross margin of 55.24%, operating margin of 19.45%, net margin of 12.23%, ROE of 121.03%, ROIC of 36.43% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $451 million up 6%, net income of $41 million up 11%, adjusted EBITDA of $104 million up 3%, adjusted EPS of $0.73 up 14%, free cash flow of $114 million | Q1 2026 earnings release and call transcript | April 30, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Full-year revenue of $2.155 billion to $2.195 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $565 million to $580 million, reaffirmed | Q1 2026 earnings call | April 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 outlook | Revenue of $635 million to $650 million and adjusted EBITDA of $198 million to $208 million | Q1 2026 earnings call | April 30, 2026 |
| Member count outlook | Total member count expected to grow about 1% in 2026, the first organic increase since 2020, with DTC member count up 3% and first-year real estate members up 3% in Q1 | Q1 2026 earnings call | April 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue estimate of $2.18 billion with EPS of $4.55, FY2027 revenue of $2.32 billion with EPS of $5.05 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $75.75 across 6 analysts, low of $70 and high of $82 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.09 million shares short, 4.40% of shares outstanding, 4.06 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $48.47 to $80.73, with a 52-week price change of +24.45% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $73.60, 20-day near $74.38, 50-day near $70.48, 100-day near $65.59, 200-day near $62.09, 14-day RSI near 48.46 | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta | 1.46, above the market average | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This FTDR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool for education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff date and can be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, housing data, market moves, or macro conditions.
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