Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
SUPN AI stock analysis currently reads Supernus Pharmaceuticals as a CNS-focused specialty biopharma company with a growing ADHD franchise in Qelbree, a stable epilepsy and Parkinson's product base, and a pipeline of Phase 2 CNS candidates. At the July 13, 2026 data cutoff, SUPN traded near $48.46 with a verified market capitalization near $2.81 billion. The company generates positive free cash flow and carries low debt, but reports GAAP net losses due to non-cash charges. This page uses source-backed data, scenario ranges, technical levels, and a rules-based trading strategy framework. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$48.46
Market cap
$2.81 billion verified market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
CNS-specialty biopharma with Qelbree growth, GAAP loss but positive free cash flow
Trend status
Recovered from 52-week low of $32.20 toward $48.46, up roughly 46% over the past year
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Supernus develops and commercializes CNS therapies in ADHD, epilepsy, and Parkinson disease, with a growing Qelbree ADHD franchise, a mature epilepsy product base, and recently approved ONAPGO for advanced PD motor fluctuations. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from FDA-approved product labels, extended-release formulation know-how, CNS specialist prescribing relationships, and ADHD/PD patient adherence. The moat is narrow because older products face potential generic entry and Qelbree competes with multiple non-stimulant ADHD options. | Medium |
| Management | Founder-led management has built a multi-product CNS portfolio, maintained low debt, generated positive free cash flow, and recently launched ONAPGO. Key tests are Qelbree market share expansion, product life-cycle management, pipeline Phase 2 execution, and CVR obligations. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $718.95 million with a GAAP net loss of -$38.55 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $207.71 million with positive GAAP net income of $11.97 million. TTM free cash flow was positive at $132.62 million. Revenue has grown from around $607 million in FY2021. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $48.46, audited math shows a TTM GAAP P/E of -95x due to losses, a price/sales ratio near 3.9x, a price/book ratio near 2.6x, and a price/FCF ratio near 12.8x. The forward P/E based on analyst consensus of $1.70 EPS is about 28.5x. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SUPN has recovered sharply from its 52-week low of $32.20 to trade near $48.46, about 46% higher over the trailing 12 months. The stock is below its 52-week high of $59.68. TradingView technical summary showed a neutral-to-buy signal as of mid-July 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Major risks are GAAP unprofitability, high short interest (13.45% of float), generic erosion to Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR, Qelbree competition, pipeline binary risk for Phase 2 candidates (SPN-817, SPN-820), single-country revenue concentration (U.S. only), and CVR-related cash outflows. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is medium-high for reported financials and product-level data. Forecast confidence is medium-low because small-cap biopharma prices can move sharply on binary pipeline events, prescription trends, and quarterly results. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. SUPN has positive free cash flow and a growing product base, but GAAP losses, high short interest, generic risk, and pipeline binary outcomes mean the investment depends on catalysts that are hard to predict with high precision. | Medium-low |
SUPN AI stock forecast
The SUPN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $48.46 cutoff price and analyst consensus current-year EPS estimate of $1.70. The audited three-year model produced valuation anchors near $82 in the bullish case, $47 in the base case, and $24 in the bearish case before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
$75 to $85
More likely if Qelbree continues gaining ADHD market share, ONAPGO drives meaningful PD revenue, SPN-817 or SPN-820 show positive Phase 2 data, operating margins improve toward profitability, and investors assign a forward P/E near 22x on sustained EPS growth.
$40 to $52
More likely if Qelbree grows at a moderate rate, older products hold for now but face gradual generic erosion, pipeline candidates progress without major binary outcomes, and the market values SUPN near 18x forward EPS with a modest growth premium.
$20 to $30
More likely if Qelbree growth disappoints amid competition, a generic version of Trokendi XR or Oxtellar XR enters, pipeline trials fail or are delayed, short interest pressure intensifies, or operating cash flow deteriorates from rising R&D spending.
SUPN AI technical analysis
SUPN AI technical analysis is constructive but cautious as of the July 13, 2026 cutoff. The stock has rallied significantly from its 52-week low of $32.20 to the $48 area, but remains roughly 19% below its 52-week high of $59.68. TradingView technical indicators showed a neutral-to-buy consensus. Barchart technical opinion rated the stock Sell at a 40 score, reflecting mixed short-term signals. Volume has been above average on strong days, suggesting active institutional and retail interest, but high short interest also creates the risk of sharp moves.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.46 | MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance composite quotes as of July 10-12, 2026, used for all market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $43 to $45 | The 50-day moving average zone near $43.58 to $45. The stock has held this zone on pullbacks since breaking above it in early 2026. |
| Secondary support | $38 to $40 | Before the current 50-day zone, the stock consolidated in the $38 to $40 area. A break below $43 would make this the next reference. |
| Major support | $32.20 | The 52-week low. A retest here would represent a roughly 34% decline from current levels and would call the recovery thesis into question. |
| Near resistance | $50 to $52 | The round $50 level and the $50.70 opening price from the most recent session act as psychological resistance. The 52-week high area starts above $52. |
| Major resistance | $59.68 | The 52-week high. A breakout above this level with volume would be a strong bullish signal and open the path toward analyst price targets in the $63 to $67 range. |
| Momentum | Mixed signals | TradingView showed neutral-to-buy signals while Barchart technical opinion rated Sell at 40. The 14-day RSI was near neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. |
| Volume | Above average on strong sessions | The most recent session showed volume of 1.26 million shares versus an average of 742,000 to 929,000, indicating active participation. Earnings and news days can see sharp volume spikes. |
| Volatility | Elevated for a small-cap biopharma | With beta of 0.54, SUPN is less volatile than the broad market on a 60-month basis, but binary pipeline news, quarterly earnings, and short-squeeze dynamics can create sudden price gaps. |
| Invalidation | Close below $43, then below $38 | A sustained close below the $43 to $45 near-support zone would weaken the near-term setup. A break below $38 would require a more thorough fundamental review of the thesis. |
SUPN AI trading strategy
The SUPN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework for a small-cap CNS biopharma stock with a growing commercial product base, Phase 2 pipeline catalysts, high short interest, and event-driven price moves. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, FDA calendars, Qelbree prescription data, earnings updates, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for SUPN to hold above the $43 to $45 moving-average support zone and build toward the $52 to $59 resistance with rising volume, positive Qelbree sales momentum, and no pipeline disappointments. Earnings beats, FDA approvals, and positive clinical data can accelerate the trend.
A close below $43 should reduce swing confidence. A close below the $38 secondary support zone should trigger a full thesis review. Position size should account for gap-down risk around binary pipeline events.
If SUPN pulls back toward the $43 to $45 zone without product-specific bad news, compare the reset price with free cash flow yield, forward EPS estimates, and analyst price targets in the $55 to $67 range. High short interest creates squeeze potential on positive surprises.
Do not average down through Qelbree disappointment, generic entry, or pipeline failure. Small-cap biopharma binary risk can convert a normal pullback into a structural break requiring months to reassess.
Track Qelbree prescription trends and market share, Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR revenue trends, ONAPGO launch metrics, pipeline Phase 2 data for SPN-817 and SPN-820, operating cash flow versus GAAP net income, cash position and CVR obligations, and changes in short interest.
Lower confidence if GAAP losses widen despite revenue growth, if cash burn accelerates from pipeline spending, if short interest continues increasing, or if product revenue growth depends mainly on price increases rather than volume.
Investment research summary
Supernus converts CNS formulation science and clinical development into patented products for ADHD, epilepsy, and Parkinson disease. Patients and prescribers pay for efficacy, tolerability, and extended-release convenience that generics and older formulations may not offer.
The moat is narrow: FDA-approved labels, extended-release patents, and CNS specialist relationships provide some protection, but most products face or will face generic competition. Qelbree has orphan-like exclusivity advantages in pediatric ADHD as a non-stimulant, but competes with established alternatives.
The thesis fails if Qelbree growth slows or reverses before profitability improves, if a generic version of Trokendi XR or Oxtellar XR enters and compresses revenue, if Phase 2 pipeline candidates miss endpoints, or if cash and free cash flow deteriorate from rising R&D or CVR-related obligations.
Founder Jack Khattar has led the company since its 2005 founding, built a multi-product CNS commercial portfolio, maintained a low-debt balance sheet, generated positive free cash flow, and brought ONAPGO to FDA approval. Capital allocation discipline around pipeline investment and business development is the key forward question.
CNS drug development benefits from growing ADHD and Parkinson disease prevalence, aging populations, and increasing awareness of neurological disorders. The industry also faces generic pricing pressure, payer reimbursement scrutiny, high clinical trial failure rates in CNS, and FDA regulatory uncertainty.
At $48.46, SUPN carries a market cap of about $2.81 billion against trailing revenue of roughly $719 million. The stock is below consensus analyst targets of $55 to $67 but above its 52-week low of $32.20. Margin of safety depends on whether forward EPS estimates materialize and whether the free cash flow yield of about 7.8% compensates for the GAAP loss and execution risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUPN quote reference | $48.46 close as of July 10, 2026 | MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance composite quote | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.81 billion, verified as $48.46 x about 58.04 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and MarketBeat share data | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.04 million shares outstanding | MarketBeat SUPN statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $718.95 million, cross-validated against MarketBeat and TradingView | MarketBeat and TradingView financial data | July 13, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | -$38.55 million net loss and -$0.51 diluted EPS (GAAP) | TradingView, MarketBeat FY2025 financials | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $207.71 million revenue and $0.60 GAAP EPS (beat consensus of $0.30) | Supernus Q1 2026 earnings release and Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $384.24 million as of most recent quarter | Yahoo Finance SUPN balance sheet | July 13, 2026 |
| Total debt | Negligible, debt-to-equity ratio near 3.8% | Yahoo Finance SUPN statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $132.62 million TTM free cash flow and $3.77 free cash flow per share | Yahoo Finance SUPN cash flow and MarketBeat | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Consensus Hold with price target range $55 to $67. Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight at $67, Piper Sandler Buy | MarketBeat SUPN analyst forecasts | July 13, 2026 |
| Short interest | 13.45% of float, days to cover: 6.96, increasing 17.03% month-over-month | MarketBeat SUPN short interest | July 13, 2026 |
This SUPN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 13, 2026 and can be wrong if clinical, regulatory, competitive, commercial, macro, or market multiple assumptions change.
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