Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
SUPN AI stock analysis reads Supernus Pharmaceuticals as a CNS-focused specialty biopharma that announced a merger of equals with Indivior Pharmaceuticals on August 3, 2026. The all-stock deal is expected to create a combined company with about $2.2 billion in annual revenue, about $888 million in pro forma adjusted EBITDA and $125 million in expected annual cost synergies, with closing targeted in the fourth quarter of 2026. Supernus also reported Q2 2026 revenue of $219.1 million, up 32% year over year, and raised full-year guidance. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, SUPN traded near $46.00 with a verified market capitalization near $2.67 billion. The company still reports GAAP net losses, including a $54.9 million non-cash APOKYN intangible impairment in Q2 2026. This page uses source-backed data, scenario ranges, technical levels and a rules-based trading strategy framework. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$46.00
Market cap
$2.67 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
CNS biopharma merging with Indivior, Q2 revenue up 32%, GAAP loss from APOKYN impairment, 2026 guidance raised
Trend status
Closed at $46.00 on August 3, 2026 after a merger-driven range of $44.17 to $52.50, up 29.6% over 52 weeks but below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Supernus commercializes CNS therapies across ADHD, Parkinson disease, epilepsy and postpartum depression, with Qelbree, GOCOVRI, ONAPGO and the ZURZUVAE collaboration with Biogen driving growth. Q2 2026 revenue rose 32% to $219.1 million, and combined revenue from the four growth products rose 52% to $175.7 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is narrow: FDA-approved labels, extended-release formulation know-how, CNS specialist relationships, and orphan-style exclusivity advantages for some products. Legacy products face generic erosion, Qelbree competes with multiple non-stimulant ADHD options, and the merger brings SUBLOCADE and SUBOXONE franchise exposure to opioid use disorder. | Medium |
| Management | Founder-led management, with Jack Khattar set to serve as CEO of the combined company, has built a multi-product CNS portfolio, raised 2026 guidance, kept debt low on a standalone basis and negotiated a merger of equals with Indivior. Key tests are integration execution, $125 million of synergies, absorbing the new $650 million term loan and delivering the combined growth plan. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue is growing: Q2 2026 total revenue was $219.1 million, up 32%, and full-year 2026 guidance was raised to $860 to $890 million. TTM revenue reached $830.44 million with TTM free cash flow of $82.25 million. GAAP net income is negative, including a $54.9 million non-cash APOKYN impairment in Q2 2026, while adjusted operating earnings were $31.2 million in the quarter. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $46.00, verified math shows a TTM GAAP P/E that is not meaningful due to losses, a forward P/E near 16.2x, a price/sales ratio near 3.2x, a price/book ratio near 2.5x and a price/FCF ratio near 32x. Analyst consensus is Buy with a price target of $63.20, and the fixed merger exchange ratio implied about $57.55 per SUPN share at the August 3 INDV close, before deal-risk spread. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $46.00 on August 3, 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $46.33 and the 200-day moving average of $49.00. RSI near 46 was neutral. TradingView leaned cautious with moving averages in strong sell territory and a neutral oscillator summary. The merger announcement produced a wide $44.17 to $52.50 range on about 5 times average volume. | Medium |
| Risk level | Major risks are merger non-completion or delay, integration and synergy shortfall, about $878 million of pro forma net debt after the special dividend financing, GAAP losses and the APOKYN impairment, generic erosion to Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR, ONAPGO supply concentration, ZURZUVAE collaboration dependence and Phase 2 pipeline binary risk for SPN-817 and SPN-820. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is medium-high for reported financials and announced merger terms. Forecast confidence is medium-low because deal close timing, exchange-ratio value, integration results and binary pipeline events can move the stock sharply. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The merger improves scale, diversification and the balance sheet story, and the standalone business shows strong revenue growth. But merger completion, integration, new debt and product-specific risks mean outcomes depend on events that are hard to predict with high precision. | Medium |
SUPN AI stock forecast
The SUPN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $46.00 cutoff price and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS estimate of $2.49. The audited three-year model produced valuation anchors near $83 in the bullish case, $57 in the base case and $30 in the bearish case. Because the Indivior merger of equals is pending, these scenarios assume the deal closes and the combined company operates as announced; a failed or delayed deal would shift outcomes toward the bearish end.
$75 to $85
More likely if the merger closes on schedule in Q4 2026, the $125 million synergy target is met, Qelbree, ONAPGO and ZURZUVAE keep growing at double-digit rates, SUBLOCADE drives the combined portfolio, adjusted EPS beats estimates and the market values the combined company near 22x forward adjusted earnings.
$50 to $60
More likely if the merger closes as announced, growth products keep momentum while Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR erode gradually, integration costs stay contained, and the market prices the combined company near the analyst target of $63.20 with a modest spread for deal and integration risk.
$25 to $35
More likely if the merger is delayed or terminated, ONAPGO supply or Qelbree competition disappoints, further intangible impairments emerge, integration costs or the new debt burden pressure free cash flow, or Phase 2 pipeline candidates fail and pressure the standalone thesis.
SUPN AI technical analysis
SUPN AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $46.00, below the 50-day moving average of $46.33 and the 200-day moving average of $49.00, after drifting lower from the early July level near $50. The merger announcement created a wide intraday range of $44.17 to $52.50 on about 5 times average volume, which points to event-driven repricing rather than a clean trend. RSI near 46 was neutral. TradingView showed moving averages in strong sell territory with a neutral oscillator summary, a sell bias on the 1-week view and a buy signal on the 1-month view. The 52-week range is $35.51 to $59.68.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.00 | Close on August 3, 2026, up 3.07% on the merger announcement, with an intraday range of $44.17 to $52.50. StockAnalysis.com and CBOE data as of the August 3, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $44.00 to $44.50 | The $44.17 August 3 low and the prior consolidation lows around $44. This zone has held several pullbacks since June. |
| Secondary support | $42.50 to $43.50 | June lows clustered near $42.50 to $43.50. A break below the $44 zone would make this the next reference. |
| Major support | $35.51 | The 52-week low. A retest would represent a roughly 23% decline from current levels and would call the recovery thesis into question. |
| Near resistance | $46.33 to $49.00 | The 50-day moving average at $46.33 and the 200-day moving average at $49.00 form the immediate overhead zone that SUPN must reclaim for a constructive trend. |
| Major resistance | $50.45 to $52.50 | The August 3 opening and high print the merger-day range. A close above $52.50 with volume would reopen the path toward the 52-week high of $59.68. |
| Momentum | Neutral to weak | RSI near 46.43 was neutral. TradingView moving averages read strong sell with oscillators neutral, a sell bias on the 1-week view and a buy signal on the 1-month view. |
| Volume | Spiked on the merger day | August 3 volume of 4.52 million shares compared with a 20-day average of about 874,000, about 5 times normal. Earnings and deal news days can produce sharp volume and price swings. |
| Volatility | Elevated for a small-cap biopharma | Beta of 0.56 is below the broad market, but binary merger, pipeline and earnings events can create sudden gaps, as the $8.33 intraday range on August 3 shows. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44.00, then below $42.50 | A sustained close below the $44 to $44.50 near-support zone would weaken the near-term setup. A break below $42.50 would call for a full review of the thesis. |
SUPN AI trading strategy
The SUPN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based framework for a small-cap CNS biopharma stock with a pending merger of equals, strong growth products, event-driven price moves and high sensitivity to deal news. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, merger milestone dates, INDV share price, Qelbree and ONAPGO prescription data, earnings updates, position sizing and risk controls.
Watch for SUPN to reclaim the $46.33 to $49.00 moving average zone on rising volume and to build toward the $52.50 merger-day high and the $59.68 52-week high, with no negative merger or pipeline headlines. Positive deal milestones, FDA updates on the ONAPGO second supplier and Qelbree prescription growth can accelerate the trend.
A close below $44.00 should reduce swing confidence. A close below $42.50 should trigger a full thesis review. Position size should account for gap-down risk around merger votes, regulatory decisions and binary pipeline events.
If SUPN pulls back toward the $44 to $44.50 zone without deal-breaking news, compare the reset price with the fixed exchange-ratio implied value near $57.55 per share at the August 3 INDV close, the analyst target of $63.20 and the $55 to $67 target range. Wide deal-risk spreads can create pullback opportunities when merger risk is low.
Do not average down through a merger termination, delayed approvals, negative pipeline data or generic entry. Deal failure would likely reset the stock toward the standalone bear case and require months to reassess.
Track merger closing conditions, stockholder and regulatory approvals, the INDV exchange-ratio value, Qelbree and ONAPGO prescription trends, ZURZUVAE collaboration revenue from Biogen, Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR erosion, adjusted operating earnings versus GAAP net income, pro forma net debt build, the $650 million term loan and changes in short interest.
Lower confidence if the merger is delayed or challenged, if GAAP losses widen beyond impairments, if pro forma leverage or integration costs rise, if ONAPGO supply or ZURZUVAE revenue disappoints, or if short interest climbs again after falling to 4.85 million shares.
Investment research summary
Supernus converts CNS formulation science and clinical development into patented products for ADHD, Parkinson disease, epilepsy and, through the ZURZUVAE collaboration with Biogen, postpartum depression. Patients, prescribers and payers pay for efficacy, tolerability and extended-release convenience, and the pending Indivior merger adds SUBLOCADE and the addiction medicine franchise.
The moat is narrow: FDA-approved labels, extended-release patents and CNS specialist relationships provide some protection, but most legacy products face or will face generic competition. The merger adds scale and a leading position in long-acting injectable opioid use disorder treatment, which strengthens the combined franchise even though individual product patents still expire.
The thesis fails if the merger does not close or is materially delayed, if the $125 million synergy target and $888 million pro forma adjusted EBITDA are not delivered, if ONAPGO supply or Qelbree growth stalls, if ZURZUVAE collaboration revenue disappoints, if further intangible impairments emerge, or if the $878 million pro forma net debt and integration costs erode free cash flow.
Jack Khattar has led Supernus since its founding and is set to lead the combined company as President and CEO. Management raised 2026 guidance, kept a low-debt standalone balance sheet, generated positive free cash flow and negotiated a merger of equals with Indivior. The key forward questions are integration execution, synergy delivery and capital allocation with the new term loan.
CNS drug development benefits from growing ADHD, Parkinson disease, depression and opioid use disorder prevalence, aging populations and rising awareness of neurological and behavioral health. The industry also faces generic pricing pressure, payer reimbursement scrutiny, high clinical trial failure rates in CNS and FDA regulatory uncertainty.
At $46.00, SUPN carries a market cap of about $2.67 billion against TTM revenue of about $830 million. The forward P/E near 16.2x prices in continued growth, and the fixed exchange ratio implied about $57.55 per share at the August 3 INDV close, above the market price but subject to deal-risk spread. Margin of safety depends on merger completion, adjusted EPS delivery and whether the pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $888 million compensates for integration and leverage risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUPN quote reference | $46.00 close on August 3, 2026, up 3.07%, intraday range $44.17 to $52.50 | StockAnalysis.com with CBOE real-time data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.67 billion, verified as $46.00 x about 58.04 million shares, within 0.01% of the reported figure | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com share data | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.04 million shares outstanding, float 52.12 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | $219.1 million total revenue, up 32%; GAAP net loss of $58.4 million and diluted EPS of -$1.01, including a $54.9 million APOKYN impairment; adjusted operating earnings of $31.2 million | Supernus Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Growth product revenue mix | Qelbree $89.2 million, up 15%; GOCOVRI $37.6 million, up 2%; ONAPGO $13.5 million; ZURZUVAE collaboration revenue $35.4 million; Trokendi XR $8.4 million and Oxtellar XR $8.8 million, each down 25% | Supernus Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and free cash flow | TTM revenue $830.44 million, up 24.9%; TTM free cash flow $82.25 million on operating cash flow of $83.26 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $718.95 million revenue and a GAAP net loss of $38.55 million | StockAnalysis.com financial forecasts | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt and equity | Cash and investments $372.07 million, total debt $29.43 million, net cash $342.64 million or $5.90 per share, book equity $1.03 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Supernus balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios at $46.00 | Forward P/E 16.2x, price/sales 3.15x, price/book 2.52x, price/FCF 31.81x, EV/sales 2.74x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Consensus Buy across 6 ratings (4 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 1 Hold), average price target $63.20, range $55 to $67 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page with S&P Global and TipRanks data | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.85 million shares short, 8.36% of shares outstanding and 9.31% of float, down from 7.14 million shares the prior month, days to cover 4.88 | StockAnalysis.com short selling statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical context | 52-week range $35.51 to $59.68, 50-day moving average $46.33, 200-day moving average $49.00, RSI 46.43, 20-day average volume about 874,000 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Indivior merger terms | All-stock merger of equals; SUPN holders receive 1.5401 INDV shares per share; combined revenue about $2.2 billion, pro forma adjusted EBITDA $888 million, $125 million annual synergies, pro forma net debt about $878 million; INDV holders receive a $1.0 billion special dividend funded by a $650 million term loan; combined company to keep the SUPN ticker, close expected Q4 2026 | Supernus and Indivior merger announcement | August 3, 2026 |
This SUPN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation or a personalized recommendation. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if clinical, regulatory, competitive, commercial, macro, merger or market multiple assumptions change. The proposed merger with Indivior may not be completed on the announced terms, in the expected timeframe, or at all.
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