Sunoco LP research snapshot
SUN AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Sunoco LP as an income-oriented fuel distribution and energy infrastructure partnership whose distribution and cash flow are growing after the Parkland and TanQuid acquisitions, but whose units are no longer cheap after a 40% run over the past 52 weeks. Sunoco closed at $76.69 on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print of $77.69 and a market capitalization near $10.50 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $76.69 times 136,894,754 common units, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages and the 136,894,754 common units on the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q cover. The partnership raised the quarterly distribution to $1.0023 per unit on July 27, 2026, or $4.0092 annualized, after a 6.25% increase in April, and reported a trailing twelve-month distribution coverage ratio near 1.9x, leverage near 4.0x against its credit facility definition, and Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $858 million, or $867 million excluding $9 million of transaction expenses, with $535 million of distributable cash flow as adjusted. The Q2 2026 report is due before the market opens on August 4, 2026 and had not been released at the data cutoff. Offsetting the momentum is a valuation near 19.5x trailing GAAP EPS and 12.9x trailing free cash flow, a payout ratio near 98% on trailing earnings, total debt of $13.932 billion as reported in the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and an adjusted EPS consensus for 2026 of about $2.88 that is down sharply from 2025 because the TanQuid acquisition adds large, low-margin wholesale revenue. Sunoco also completed a redomiciliation from Delaware to Texas on July 6, 2026. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$76.69
Market cap
$10.50 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Distribution growth with elevated leverage
Trend status
Uptrend above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sunoco distributes motor fuel and operates pipelines, terminals, a refinery, and related infrastructure across the United States, Canada, the Greater Caribbean, and Europe, with TTM revenue near $30.71 billion and Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $858 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Scale, branded supply relationships such as the 7-Eleven take-or-pay contract, long-term dealer agreements, terminals, pipelines, and operating density create switching friction, but the products remain largely commodity-linked. | Medium |
| Management | Joseph Kim has led the general partner since 2018, closed the NuStar, Parkland, and TanQuid acquisitions, and raised the distribution in April and again in July 2026, while Energy Transfer controls the general partner and the Class D units. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue rose to $30.71 billion and Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose to $858 million, but the growth is acquisition-driven, Q1 included a $102 million one-time inventory gain and a $444 million favorable LIFO adjustment, and the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus is down sharply. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The July 31 close was about 19.5x TTM EPS, 12.9x trailing free cash flow, and 5.16% to 5.23% on the annualized distribution, so the units are priced for continued execution rather than for a discount. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price closed at $76.69 above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 66.9 and 14-day ADX near 34.7 confirming an uptrend toward the $78.11 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | High monitoring priority because total debt was $13.932 billion at March 31, 2026, leverage was about 4.0x, the trailing payout ratio was near 98%, and fuel demand, commodity volatility, rates, regulation, weather, and sponsor conflicts can affect distributions. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financials and ownership are well sourced and cross-validated. Forecast confidence is lower because 2026 guidance, fuel margins, and integration results are still in motion. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. SUN can fit an income and infrastructure research screen, but the page does not establish personal suitability or distribution safety, and the valuation is fuller than it was in mid-2025. | Medium-low |
SUN AI stock forecast
The SUN AI stock forecast uses a three-year mechanical EPS and multiple framework combined with the analyst target band, not a point-price promise. Using TTM GAAP EPS of $3.93, annual growth assumptions of 8%, 3%, and negative 8%, and target multiples of 20x, 16x, and 12x, the model produces central values of about $99, $69, and $37 before scenario ranges. The ranges below are widened toward the analyst target band of $73 to $87 because Sunoco generates real free cash flow and pays a 5% plus distribution, so the income support narrows the downside relative to trailing GAAP EPS alone. The inputs are sensitive to Parkland and TanQuid integration, fuel margins, interest expense, distribution coverage, and leverage.
$88 to $102
More likely if Parkland and TanQuid integration delivers the promised 10% plus accretion and a $250 million plus synergy run rate, fuel margins hold after commodity volatility fades, distributions keep growing 5% or more, leverage stays near the 4.0x target, and units close above the $78.11 high with volume.
$72 to $85
More likely if 2026 EBITDA guidance is delivered, distributable cash flow per unit grows mid-single digits, distributions grow, interest costs and fuel margins stay broadly stable, and the market holds the current multiple and a near 5.2% yield.
$58 to $70
More likely if fuel demand weakens, the favorable commodity volatility reverses, integration synergies disappoint, refinancing becomes more expensive, leverage stays high, or a sustained break below support changes the income view of the partnership.
SUN AI technical analysis
SUN AI technical analysis is bullish but extended as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $76.69 on July 31, 2026, above its 5-day average of about $76.03 and well above the rising 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 66.9 and 14-day ADX near 34.7 confirming a trending uptrend. The 52-week high of $78.11, set intraday on July 29, 2026, is the immediate overhead, and this static page does not fetch request-time charts, so levels should be re-confirmed with a live feed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $76.69 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close, with an after-hours print of $77.69; market cap math uses 136.89 million common units. |
| 5-day moving average | $76.03 | Barchart reported the 5-day average near $76.03, just below the close, meaning near-term momentum stayed firm through the end of July. |
| Near support | $72.50 to $73.50 | The 20-day moving average near $72.96 on July 31 is the first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $68.50 to $70.50 | The 50-day moving average near $68.87 and the early July breakout zone form the next support area. |
| Major support | $61.50 to $64.00 | The 200-day moving average near $61.73 marks the long-term trend line; a move toward this zone would signal a much weaker setup. |
| Near resistance | $78.00 to $80.00 | The 52-week high was $78.11 on July 29, 2026, with the $80 round number as the next psychological level. |
| 50-day moving average | $68.87 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $68.87 on July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $61.73 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $61.73, well below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 67, ADX near 35 | 14-day RSI near 66.9 is strong but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 34.7 with +DI near 29.6 against -DI near 14.4 confirms a bullish trend rather than a range. |
| Volume | About 472,000 average shares | 20-day average volume near 471,935 shares with a 762,092-share close on July 31; compare future breakout volume with this average before drawing a signal. |
| Volatility | ATR near $1.92, HV near 23% | 14-day ATR near $1.92 or about 2.50% of price, with 14-day historical volatility near 22.6% and 50-day near 31.3%, so position sizing should allow for swings around earnings on August 4. |
| Invalidation | Close below $72.96 | A sustained close below the 20-day moving average near $72.96 would weaken the near-term uptrend; a close below the 50-day near $68.87 would signal a deeper correction. |
SUN AI trading strategy
The SUN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a partnership with growing distributions and material leverage. It is not personalized advice. Pair every setup with position sizing, a maximum loss rule, current filings, distribution coverage, and the tax implications of owning an MLP, especially after the Q2 2026 report on August 4, 2026.
Wait for a close above the $78.11 to $80.00 resistance zone with volume above the roughly 472,000-share 20-day average and no deterioration in distribution coverage or leverage commentary.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the $72.96 support zone invalidates the near-term setup, and a close below the 50-day near $68.87 calls for a broader review.
If SUN pulls back toward $68.50 to $70.50, compare the price move with the Q2 2026 results, fuel margins, acquisition integration, debt balances, and distribution coverage before acting.
Do not average down solely because the yield rises. Recheck whether the decline reflects a temporary chart move or a permanent cash-flow problem, and keep a defined loss limit.
Track distributable cash flow per unit, coverage (1.9x as of Q1 2026), the $1.0023 quarterly distribution, maintenance and growth capital, interest expense, total debt, leverage near 4.0x, and Parkland and TanQuid performance.
Treat the distribution as variable. Reduce confidence if coverage falls toward 1.0x, leverage rises above target, refinancing costs increase, or cash distributions are no longer comfortably supported by operating cash flow.
Investment research summary
Sunoco moves fuel and related products through a network of more than 14,000 pipeline miles and over 160 terminals, distributing more than 15 billion gallons annually to about 11,000 branded and partner locations, plus a small refinery at Burnaby in British Columbia, with operations now spanning the United States, Canada, the Greater Caribbean, and Europe.
The practical moat comes from route density, storage and pipeline assets, branded supply relationships such as the 7-Eleven take-or-pay contract, long-term dealer contracts, the TanQuid terminal network in Germany and Poland, and the cost and disruption of moving a fuel supplier. Commodity products limit pricing power.
The thesis can fail through weaker fuel demand, electric vehicle adoption, a reversal of the favorable commodity volatility, margin compression, expensive refinancing, operational incidents, regulatory costs, failed integrations, a rising leverage ratio, or a distribution cut.
CEO Joseph Kim has led the general partner since 2018 with prior Valero and operating experience. Management closed the NuStar, Parkland, and TanQuid deals, raised the distribution twice in 2026, and targets at least 5% multi-year distribution growth with a 1.9x coverage ratio and about 4.0x leverage. Energy Transfer owns the general partner, the incentive distribution rights, and the Class D units, aligning some interests while creating sponsor conflicts.
Fuel distribution and midstream infrastructure remain supported by transport demand, storage needs, and consolidation, with the Middle East conflict adding volatility that has been temporarily favorable for margins. The countertrend is a gradual shift toward efficiency, alternative fuels, and lower-carbon energy.
Revenue increased from $22.693 billion in 2024 to $25.201 billion in 2025 and to about $30.71 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, mostly from acquisitions. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose to $858 million, but the quarter included a $102 million one-time inventory gain and a $444 million favorable LIFO adjustment, and the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of about $2.88 is down from $5.02 in 2025.
At $76.69, the units trade at about 19.5x TTM EPS, 12.9x trailing free cash flow, and a 5.16% to 5.23% yield, with a mechanical three-year model central value near $69 against the current price. The margin of safety is thinner after the roughly 40% 52-week gain, and it narrows further if debt service or distribution coverage deteriorates.
A five-year owner must be comfortable with MLP tax reporting, variable distributions, about 4.0x leverage, Energy Transfer sponsor control, the recent move to Texas domicile, and acquisition integration risk. The page supports a watchlist or research process, not an automatic buy decision.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUN price | $76.69 at the July 31, 2026 close, with an after-hours print of $77.69 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and units | $10.50 billion, computed as $76.69 x 136,894,754 common units, with a 0.01% calculation variance | StockAnalysis.com quote and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, verified with financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and price change | $47.98 to $78.11 with a 52-week price change of +40.10% and a year-to-date gain of +46.33% | StockAnalysis.com quote and price history | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM and FY2025 revenue | TTM revenue of $30.71 billion, up 37.27%, from $25.201 billion in FY2025 and $22.693 billion in FY2024 | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM net income | FY2025 net income of $527 million per the Form 10-K, with TTM net income near $539 million and TTM EPS near $3.93 per the StockAnalysis statistics page | SEC Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $10.690 billion revenue, $644 million net income, $858 million adjusted EBITDA, and $535 million distributable cash flow as adjusted | Sunoco Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA | Fuel Distribution $529 million, Pipeline Systems $179 million, Terminals $107 million, and Refinery $43 million | Sunoco Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $718 million cash and $13.932 billion total debt as reported at March 31, 2026, with the StockAnalysis standardized balance sheet showing $15.415 billion total debt including operating leases | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Leverage and liquidity | Net debt to adjusted EBITDA near 4.0x under the credit facility definition and about $2.2 billion available on the $2.50 billion revolving credit facility at March 31, 2026 | Sunoco Q1 2026 earnings release and call | August 3, 2026 |
| Distribution | $1.0023 per unit for Q2 2026 announced July 27, 2026, or $4.0092 annualized, after $0.9899 for Q1 2026; StockAnalysis lists a $3.96 annual dividend and a 5.16% yield on the prior basis | Sunoco July 27, 2026 distribution announcement and StockAnalysis.com dividends | August 3, 2026 |
| Distribution coverage | Trailing twelve-month coverage ratio near 1.9x and a multi-year distribution growth target of at least 5% | Sunoco Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| TanQuid acquisition | Closed January 16, 2026 for EUR 206 million, about $239 million, plus assumed debt with a fair value of EUR 298 million, making Sunoco Germany's largest independent terminal operator with 16 assets in Germany and Poland | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Parkland integration and synergies | On track for 10% plus accretion before the year three commitment, with $125 million of in-year synergies assumed in guidance and a $250 million plus run-rate floor | Sunoco Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 19.5x trailing GAAP EPS, 12.9x trailing free cash flow, 1.53x book value, EV/EBITDA near 10.85, and a 5.16% to 5.23% distribution yield at $76.69 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py arithmetic | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward estimates | 2026 consensus revenue of $44.65 billion, up 77.16%, and 2026 adjusted EPS of about $2.88, down from $5.02 in 2025, with 2027 EPS of about $3.24; the statistics page lists a 7.64 forward PE while the forecast page implies about 26.6x on the $2.88 estimate | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy across 7 analysts with an average target of $80, a median of $78, and a range of $73 to $87 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Mizuho $83 on July 29, J.P. Morgan $84 on July 29, RBC $78 on July 22, Barclays $75 to $78 on July 14, and Citi $73 on July 14 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Redomiciliation | Sunoco changed its state of formation from Delaware to Texas on July 6, 2026 under a Plan of Conversion approved by the general partner board, with units converting on a one-for-one basis | SEC Form 8-K12B filed July 6, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Operating footprint | More than 14,000 pipeline miles, over 160 terminals, more than 15 billion gallons distributed annually, and approximately 11,000 branded or partner locations | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q Item 1 | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $76.03, 20-day SMA near $72.96, 50-day SMA near $68.87, 100-day SMA near $67.59, 200-day SMA near $61.73, 14-day RSI near 66.87, 14-day ADX near 34.70, and 14-day ATR near $1.92 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This SUN AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice and is not a recommendation or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, tax rules, or macro conditions change. Sunoco LP is a publicly traded partnership that redomiciled to Texas in July 2026, so prospective unitholders should review the applicable tax reporting, distribution, and governance risks, and the Q2 2026 results due August 4, 2026 were not yet released at the data cutoff.
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