Bullish case
$16.00 to $20.00
More likely if TPV growth re-accelerates in the second half as management guides, NPLs and cost of risk fall toward mid-teens, Selic peaks, and the stock re-rates toward the $15.90 to $16.86 analyst consensus range.
StoneCo Ltd. research snapshot
STNE AI Stock Analysis
STNE AI stock analysis reads StoneCo Ltd. as a Brazilian payments, banking, and credit platform that is returning a large amount of capital to shareholders while it works through a credit quality and merchant churn cycle. At the August 3, 2026 close the price was $11.35, market capitalization was about $2.76 billion, and the trailing GAAP multiple looked cheap at roughly 4.3x, in part because Q1 2026 recognized one-off tax benefits. The core question is whether the discount to book value and to earnings compensates for rising loan losses, a Selic rate above the company planning assumption, and still-soft payment volume growth. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$11.35
Market cap
$2.76 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Cheap multiple, credit cycle test
Trend status
Below 200-day average, near 52-week low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. StoneCo is covered by roughly 17 sell-side analysts, but USD financial data requires BRL/USD conversion, and the implied rate of about 5.23 BRL/USD as of early August 2026 shifts quarter to quarter. BRL-reported operating data is clean; USD-equivalent figures vary across sources because of exchange rate timing.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risks are currency-driven false precision and fallen-angel anchoring, since the stock is down about 24% YTD and far below its 2021 peak. The page separates BRL-reported financials from USD-translated estimates. Recent downgrades and target cuts from BofA, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies reduce groupthink risk, but they also mean caution is already priced in.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high confidence for BRL business data and qualitative mapping. Medium confidence for USD valuation metrics because of FX translation variance and for short-term technical signals because the page is static.
- investment Certainty
- Low-to-medium. Headline multiples look cheap, but they are flattered by Q1 2026 tax benefits and carry real Brazilian credit and macro risk. Position decisions need first-party filings, live prices, and personal risk constraints.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | StoneCo processes payments and provides banking and credit to Brazilian merchants under the Stone, ton, and pagar.me brands. Q1 2026 total revenue and income was R$3.6 billion, up 6% year over year, with payments and credit as the growth engines. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is moderate, built on physical distribution, merchant relationships, and software integration rather than proprietary technology. Banks and fintechs compete aggressively, and Pix keeps structural pressure on revenue per transaction. | Medium |
| Management | Management is returning large amounts of capital, about R$3.6 billion YTD for a 27% distribution yield, and acknowledged the Q1 credit miss, tightened underwriting, and kept full-year guidance, now likely near the bottom of the range. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue is growing in BRL but decelerating, with Q1 2026 TPV up only 3%. NPLs over 90 days rose to 7% from 5.2%, and cost of risk hit 21.9%. Adjusted ROE was 19% in Q1 2026, while GAAP TTM ROE was about 31%. | Medium |
| Valuation | Trailing GAAP PE of about 4.3x is flattered by Q1 2026 tax benefits. Forward PE is roughly 5.3x, price to book is 1.18x, and FCF yield is about 23%. The consensus target is $15.90, with a median of $16.86. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is below its 200-day moving average of about $14.10 and just above the 50-day average near $11.02, in the lower half of the $9.45 to $19.95 52-week range. Price is down about 24% YTD and 32% over six months. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated. Credit losses, a higher-for-longer Selic rate, Pix margin compression, BRL depreciation, and competition from bank-owned acquirers are the main risks. Q2 2026 results are due August 13, 2026, after this page cutoff. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for BRL operating data and qualitative mapping, medium for USD valuations and short-term technicals. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | The page provides a framework for weighing a cheap stock against a deteriorating credit cycle, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
STNE AI stock forecast
STNE AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The STNE AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the August 3, 2026 close of $11.35 instead of a point target. The bullish case depends on H2 payment volume re-acceleration and credit normalization; the base case assumes slow improvement with a Brazil macro overhang; the bearish case assumes loan losses or the macro environment keep deteriorating.
Base case
$10.50 to $14.50
More likely if growth stays moderate, credit quality improves only slowly, and the stock trades between the 52-week low and the 200-day moving average while the market waits for Q2 2026 results on August 13 and clearer signals on Brazilian rates.
Bearish case
$7.00 to $10.00
More likely if credit losses keep rising, Brazil enters a sharper slowdown, the real depreciates sharply, or the stock closes below $9.45 on volume and opens deeper support.
STNE AI technical analysis
STNE AI Technical Analysis
STNE AI technical analysis starts from the $11.35 quote and the observed 52-week range of $9.45 to $19.95. The stock sits below its 200-day moving average near $14.10 and above its 50-day average near $11.02. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.35 | Close on August 3, 2026, used as the quote for this page. |
| Near support | $9.45 to $10.50 | The $9.45 level is the 52-week low. A test of this zone would confirm a retest of the cycle floor. |
| Deeper support | $7.00 to $9.00 | The area between the current 52-week low and the 2022 all-time low zone. A break below $9.45 opens this space. |
| Near resistance | $12.50 to $13.50 | First resistance above the quote, in the same zone as recent analyst targets near $13. A close above $13.50 would improve short-term momentum. |
| Long-term resistance | $16.00 to $20.00 | The upper half of the 52-week range toward the $19.95 high, also near the analyst median target of $16.86. A break above $20 would be a major reversal signal. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $11.02, 200-day near $14.10 | Price is above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average, a mixed medium-term structure. |
| Momentum | Mixed to weak | RSI near 55 is neutral. The trend is down over six months and the price sits below the 200-day average. |
| Volume | Moderate, around 3.7 million shares on average (20 days) | Short interest is about 10.35% of shares outstanding, a level that can fuel sharp squeezes or continued pressure. |
| Volatility | High | With a beta of about 1.60, STNE moves more than the market. Size positions to tolerate wide daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $9.45 | A decisive close below the 52-week low weakens the technical structure and opens deeper support. |
STNE AI trading strategy
STNE AI Trading Strategy Framework
The STNE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or news checks, including the Q2 2026 report on August 13.
Trend-following setup
Wait for STNE to reclaim the $12.50 to $13.50 zone with above-average volume and hold above it. That would signal a reversal from the current below-200-day-average trend.
A close back below that zone, or a failed breakout, invalidates the setup. The weak structure is the default until proven otherwise.
Mean-reversion setup
If STNE approaches the $9.45 to $10.50 support zone without a fundamental thesis break, assess whether the risk-reward for a bounce near the 52-week low fits your plan.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss. A close below $9.45 invalidates the mean-reversion idea and suggests deeper downside.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most: TPV growth, NPLs and cost of risk, credit portfolio yields, Pix margin, the Selic rate and BRL, buyback execution, and Q2 2026 results on August 13.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by Brazil macro headlines without matching business evidence, or when credit data is delayed.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
StoneCo helps Brazilian micro and small merchants accept payments across card, Pix, and boleto, then adds banking and credit. Revenue mixes transaction services, subscriptions and equipment rental, financial income, and other financial income.
Moat
Distribution through Stone Hubs, merchant software integration, and a recognized brand among Brazilian SMBs form the moat. Technology is not proprietary, and banks and fintechs keep investing heavily in the same merchants.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if a Brazil recession drives credit losses, if Pix compresses margins structurally, if bank-owned acquirers reclaim share, or if BRL depreciation cuts USD intrinsic value. The Q1 2026 rise in NPLs to 7% and cost of risk to 21.9% is the leading edge of that risk.
Management
Management has built a leading SMB payments franchise and is running a heavy capital return program, with about R$3.6 billion distributed YTD including the $2.53 special dividend and buybacks, and at least R$1.4 billion more buybacks planned. It acknowledged the credit miss, tightened underwriting, and kept guidance near the bottom of the range.
Industry trend
Brazil payments digitization is a secular trend, but Pix and deposit-funded pricing compress revenue per transaction. Credit and banking are the stated growth levers for 2026 and beyond.
Valuation and margin of safety
At a trailing PE near 4.3x, price to book of 1.18x, and FCF yield around 23%, STNE is cheap, but the earnings base is flattered by one-off tax benefits and carries a Brazil risk premium. The margin of safety holds only if profitability survives the credit cycle.
Source-backed data
STNE Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STNE price | $11.35 (close, Aug 3, 2026) | Cross-checked: StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.76B, verified as $11.35 x 243.23M shares | financial_rigor.py verification; StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E (TTM) | about 4.3x trailing GAAP (flattered by Q1 2026 tax benefits) | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | about 5.3x | StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | R$13.54B, about $2.59B at 5.23 BRL/USD | Yahoo Finance (BRL), StockAnalysis (USD) | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | about $673M, about R$3.6B including Q1 2026 tax benefits | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $9.45 to $19.95 | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 17 analysts. Average target $15.90, median $16.86, range $8.81 to $22.67 | StockAnalysis (S&P Global), TipRanks | July 23, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Total revenue and income R$3.6B (+6% YoY), adjusted EPS R$2.19, NPL 90+ 7%, cost of risk 21.9% | StoneCo Q1 2026 earnings release and call | May 14, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This STNE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on data available as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, Brazilian macro conditions, or currency rates change after the cutoff. Financial data reported in BRL (Brazilian Real) has been converted to USD at prevailing rates; actual USD values may differ.
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