PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PagBank) research snapshot
PAGS AI stock analysis reads PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PagBank) as a Brazilian digital payments and banking platform that earns from transaction processing, financial income on customer balances, and a growing consumer credit book. At the August 4, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $9.60 on August 3, 2026, down $0.04 or 0.41% from the $9.64 previous close, with an after-hours print of $9.73. Market capitalization was about $2.66 billion, matching the $9.60 price times 277.52 million shares outstanding. The FY2025 Form 20-F showed total revenue and income of R$20.41 billion, up 8.5%, with net income of R$2.12 billion, roughly flat, while the Q1 2026 Form 6-K showed total revenue and income of R$5.01 billion, up 3.2%, net income of R$545.5 million, up 3.9%, and a credit portfolio net of expected credit losses of R$4.55 billion. The stock trades at roughly 6.6x to 7.1x trailing earnings, 5.45x forward earnings, and 0.96x book value with a 2.71% dividend yield, so the central question is whether the cheap multiple reflects a genuine mispricing of a profitable Brazilian fintech or a fair price for Brazil macro risk, FX exposure, credit cycle risk, and take rate pressure. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average near $9.12 but below its 200-day moving average near $9.86. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$9.60
Market cap
$2.66 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Cheap Brazilian fintech with a macro and credit overhang
Trend status
Above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PagBank is a digital payments and banking platform in Brazil with merchant acquiring, prepaid cards, digital accounts, and consumer credit. Revenue is recurring but tied to Brazilian consumer spending and financial income on balances. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from UOL group distribution reach (Brazil largest internet portal), brand recognition in Brazilian payments, a merchant terminal network, a digital account ecosystem, and regulatory licenses. Switching costs are moderate for merchants. | Medium |
| Management | Carlos Mauad has served as CEO since late 2025 with a team that reported Q1 2026 recurring net income of R$575 million, deposits above R$42 billion, and a loan portfolio above R$5 billion, initiated a dividend in 2025, and saw director Luis Frias buy about $4.97 million of stock in March 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 total revenue and income rose 8.5% to R$20.41 billion with net income of R$2.12 billion, roughly flat. Q1 2026 total revenue and income rose 3.2% to R$5.01 billion with net income up 3.9% to R$545.5 million and a credit portfolio net of ECL of R$4.55 billion. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At about 6.6x to 7.1x trailing earnings, 5.45x forward earnings, 0.96x book value, and 2.15x trailing free cash flow with a 2.71% dividend yield, PAGS looks cheap. The discount reflects Brazil macro risk, FX, and competitive pressure. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PAGS closed at $9.60 on August 3, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $9.12 but below its 200-day moving average near $9.86, with 14-day RSI near 56.6. The stock is up about 22% over one year but the trend is not yet confirmed above the 200-day average. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Brazil macro volatility, BRL devaluation, credit losses on the expanding loan book, take rate pressure from Pix and competition with StoneCo, Mercado Pago, and large banks, regulatory change, short interest of 13.34% of shares outstanding, and governance as a controlled subsidiary of UOL. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filing-backed business mapping and valuation math that cross-validated across Google Finance, TradingView, StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, the FY2025 Form 20-F, and the Q1 2026 Form 6-K. Lower for Brazil macro trajectory, credit losses, and FX effects. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. PAGS is cheap on several metrics, but Brazil macro and FX complexity requires a higher margin of safety for conviction. | Medium-low |
PAGS AI stock forecast
The PAGS AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $9.60 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires Brazilian interest rates to decline, consumer spending to hold, loan book growth with controlled credit losses, and stable BRL to USD FX. The base case assumes steady earnings growth with the single-digit multiple intact. The bearish case assumes macro deterioration, credit losses, or FX weakness.
$12.50 to $15.00
More likely if Brazilian interest rates fall, consumer spending holds up, PagBank expands credit profitably, FX stays stable, and investors re-rate the stock toward 9x forward earnings. This is consistent with the high end of analyst targets near $12.50 to $15.00.
$10.00 to $11.50
More likely if earnings grow modestly in BRL terms, FX remains near current levels, and the stock keeps trading in a low single-digit P/E band. Analyst consensus sits near $11.18 to $11.63, within this range.
$6.50 to $8.00
More likely if Brazil enters recession, credit losses spike, BRL weakens sharply, or take rate compression from Pix, StoneCo, Mercado Pago, or large banks reduces profitability. Morgan Stanley carries a Sell rating with a $7.70 target.
PAGS AI technical analysis
PAGS AI technical analysis starts from the $9.60 close on August 3, 2026. Public technical sources showed the stock above its 50-day moving average near $9.12, at its 100-day moving average near $9.60, and below its 200-day moving average near $9.86, after recovering from the $7.85 52-week low. The 14-day RSI near 56.6 was neutral, and short interest of 13.34% of shares outstanding adds two-way risk. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.60 | Latest verified close as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock was down $0.04 or 0.41% on August 3, with an after-hours print of $9.73. |
| Near support | $9.12 to $9.50 | The 50-day moving average near $9.12 and the round $9.50 area. PAGS used this zone as support in recent trading. |
| Secondary support | $8.50 to $9.00 | The prior consolidation zone. A sustained break below $8.50 would open the path toward the $7.85 52-week low. |
| 52-week low | $7.85 | The low of the past 52 weeks. A close below this level would be a clear technical warning. |
| Near resistance | $9.83 to $9.86 | The session high near $9.83 and the 200-day moving average near $9.86. A close above this zone would be the first sign of a confirmed uptrend. |
| Primary resistance | $10.50 to $12.32 | The $10.50 area and the 52-week high of $12.32. A break above $10.50 with volume would signal a stronger trend reversal. |
| 50-day moving average | About $9.12 | PAGS traded above the 50-day MA around the cutoff, a positive short-term signal. |
| 200-day moving average | About $9.86 | PAGS traded below the 200-day MA near the cutoff. Reclaiming it would strengthen the medium-term technical setup. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56.6, neutral | The 14-day RSI was neutral-to-bullish but not overbought. Price sat near its 100-day moving average. |
| Volume | About 2.1 million shares (below the 2.8 million 20-day average) | Volume on August 3 was below the 20-day average, so upside moves should be confirmed by increasing participation. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $0.31 | Position sizing should allow for normal daily movement of about 3% around the cutoff price. |
| Short interest | 20.72 million shares, 13.34% of shares outstanding | Elevated short interest adds two-way risk: a short squeeze can accelerate upside, and short pressure can add to downside. |
| Invalidation | Close below $9.12, then $8.50 | A close below the 50-day area weakens the recovery. A break below $8.50 would challenge the medium-term setup and point toward $7.85. |
PAGS AI trading strategy
The PAGS AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, with extra attention to Brazil macro data and BRL to USD FX.
Look for PAGS to hold above the $9.12 support zone and close above the $9.86 200-day moving average with increasing volume before treating the uptrend as confirmed. A close above $10.50 would add conviction.
A daily close below $9.12, falling volume on up days, or a failure to hold gains above the 200-day average should reduce confidence in the trend-following setup.
If PAGS pulls back toward the $9.00 to $9.50 range, evaluate whether the earnings trajectory, credit quality, and macro thesis remain intact. The low earnings multiple, 0.96x book value, and 2.71% dividend yield provide a statistical margin of safety.
Do not average down solely because the stock looks cheap. Monitor credit losses, Brazilian interest rates, and the BRL to USD rate for thesis break signals.
Track Q2 2026 results due August 13, 2026, loan book growth, NPL trends, total payment volume, take rate, deposits, and BRL to USD FX. Also monitor dividend policy, short interest, and UOL group actions.
Lower conviction if credit losses rise meaningfully, guidance is cut, take rate compresses, or BRL depreciates significantly from current levels.
Investment research summary
PagBank processes payments, provides digital accounts, issues prepaid cards, and originates consumer credit for Brazilian merchants and individuals, earning transaction fees, financial income on balances, and credit spread income.
The moat is UOL group distribution reach, brand recognition in Brazilian payments, a merchant terminal installed base, a digital account ecosystem, and regulatory standards. The moat is narrower than global payment peers and take rates face pressure from Pix and competition.
The thesis fails if Brazil macro deteriorates, credit losses on the growing loan book exceed underwriting models, StoneCo or Mercado Pago gain material share, BRL devaluation destroys USD returns, take rates compress, or UOL group governance limits strategic flexibility.
Carlos Mauad (CEO) and the leadership team reported Q1 2026 recurring net income of R$575 million, deposits above R$42 billion, and a loan portfolio above R$5 billion, initiated dividends, and saw insider buying by director Luis Frias in March 2026.
Brazil digital payments continue to grow as the country shifts from cash to digital. Pix instant payments, open banking, and rising financial inclusion support the secular trend, but Pix and bank competition also put pressure on merchant acquiring take rates.
At roughly 6.6x to 7.1x trailing earnings, 5.45x forward earnings, 0.96x book value, and 2.15x free cash flow with a 2.71% dividend yield, PAGS trades at a discount to most payment companies. The margin of safety depends on earnings stability, credit quality, and the FX trajectory.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS price | $9.60 close on August 3, 2026, down $0.04 or 0.41%, after-hours $9.73 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com quote snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.66 billion, verified as $9.60 x 277.52M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 277.52 million total; float about 145 million | StockAnalysis.com and TradingView | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM P/E ratio | 6.63x (Google Finance) / 6.84x (StockAnalysis) / 7.13x (Macrotrends) | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and Macrotrends | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward P/E ratio | 5.45x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Price to book value | 0.96x, book value per share $10.03 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $1.40 (StockAnalysis) / $1.45 (Google Finance) / $1.36 (TradingView) | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and TradingView | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 total revenue and income | R$20.41B, up 8.5% year over year | PagSeguro FY2025 Form 20-F filed April 29, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | R$2.12B, roughly flat year over year | PagSeguro FY2025 Form 20-F filed April 29, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total revenue and income (BRL) | R$5.01B, up 3.2% year over year | PagSeguro Q1 2026 Form 6-K filed May 12, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income (BRL) | R$545.5M, up 3.9%; recurring net income R$575M | PagSeguro Q1 2026 Form 6-K and Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Credit portfolio net of ECL | R$4.55B as of March 31, 2026 | PagSeguro Q1 2026 Form 6-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Deposits and loan portfolio | Deposits above R$42B and loan portfolio above R$5B in Q1 2026 | PagBank Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend $0.26, yield 2.71%, ex-dividend April 22, 2026 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $7.85 to $12.32 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 20.72M shares, 13.34% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy across 16 analysts with an average target of $11.63 (StockAnalysis); 2 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell with an average of $11.18 (Google Finance, 5 analysts) | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta | 1.29 (StockAnalysis 5Y) / 1.32 (Google Finance) | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
This PAGS AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Financial data was sourced from public filings, Google Finance, TradingView, StockAnalysis.com, and Macrotrends, with noted FX conversion gaps between BRL and USD figures.
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