Sportradar Group AG research snapshot
SRAD AI stock analysis currently sees Sportradar as a global sports data and betting technology company that licenses official league data to betting operators, media companies, and prediction markets. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, SRAD closed at $14.54 on July 31 and its market capitalization was about $4.35 billion, roughly 50% below the level of a year earlier. The company holds multi-year exclusive partnerships with the NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, UEFA, FIFA, and Bundesliga, reported 11% revenue growth in Q1 2026, and announced a prediction markets data partnership with Kalshi in June 2026. It also faces a securities class action, three consecutive quarters of missed estimates, foreign exchange headwinds, and competition from Genius Sports. This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$14.54 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
About $4.35 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Sports-data franchise with durable league rights but an execution and litigation overhang; the cash flow valuation only works if delivery improves
Trend status
Downtrend with a base near the lows: SRAD trades below the 200-day average of about $18.37 and near the 50-day average of $14.75, with Barchart technical opinion at 80% sell ahead of the August 3, 2026 earnings release
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sportradar sells official sports data, odds, streaming, integrity services, and now prediction market infrastructure to betting operators, media companies, leagues, and platforms. Revenue grew 16.6% in 2025 and 11% in Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 19.0% in Q1 2026. | High |
| Moat | Multi-year exclusive data rights with the NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, UEFA, FIFA, Bundesliga, Wimbledon, and others create real switching costs for both leagues and the operators that integrate Sportradar feeds. Genius Sports contests the same rights, and leagues can split rights among multiple bidders. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder and group CEO Carsten Koerl remains in place, with CFO Craig Felenstein and new COO Sameer Deen added in 2026. Barchart insider data shows nine buys totaling about 856,000 shares over the past 6 to 12 months, and the company repurchased $228 million of stock through April 2026. Three consecutive quarters of missed estimates still test execution credibility. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about €1.29 billion, up 16.6%, with net income of about €100 million. Q1 2026 revenue was €346.5 million, up 11%, with a net loss of €6.3 million driven mainly by unrealized foreign currency losses, while adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to €66 million and free cash flow rose 38% to €44 million. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31 close, SRAD traded near 61x trailing earnings, about 26x forward earnings, roughly 3.0x sales, about 4.2x book value, and near 9x price to free cash flow. The cash flow and forward earnings multiples are low for the franchise, while the trailing earnings multiple looks high because near-term profit is depressed by FX and IMG ARENA integration costs. | High |
| Technical trend | SRAD closed at $14.54, below the 200-day average of about $18.37 and essentially at the 50-day average of $14.75, after falling about 50% over the past 52 weeks. The stock has bounced 11% over the last three months but Barchart technical opinion stands at 80% sell. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. Securities class action tied to short seller allegations, regulatory scrutiny, three straight quarters of missed estimates, foreign exchange drag, league renewal timing, Genius Sports competition, and customer concentration among sportsbooks all create meaningful uncertainty. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials, price, valuation, and partnership announcements; medium for competitive dynamics and the prediction markets ramp; low for litigation outcomes, FX, and near-term earnings, which are inherently unpredictable. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. A valuable data-rights franchise, an active buyback, and a modest cash flow multiple are offset by litigation, a miss streak, and a share price still in a broad downtrend. | Medium-low |
SRAD AI stock forecast
The SRAD AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model anchored to the July 31, 2026 close of $14.54, the reaffirmed 2026 guidance of €1,557 million to €1,582 million revenue and €390 million to €400 million adjusted EBITDA, and analyst targets that range from $15.11 to $35.37. The growth rates and multiples are transparent modeling inputs, not earnings forecasts. The outputs are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$30 to $36
More likely if the securities litigation settles without material liability, league renewals are completed on favorable terms, prediction market and iGaming revenue ramps, the company delivers against the reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and the market re-rates SRAD toward a normalized technology multiple. This aligns with the high analyst target near $35.
$18 to $24
More likely if revenue grows near the mid-teens on a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA margin expands as guided, buybacks continue at the current pace, litigation drags on without a catastrophic ruling, and the market applies a multiple near the current consensus. This brackets the average analyst target of $21.53.
$8 to $11
More likely if the securities litigation results in material financial or regulatory liability, a key league awards rights to Genius Sports or another provider, guidance is cut after further misses, or FX and iGaming losses weigh on reported earnings. The low analyst target of $15.11 sits just above this band.
SRAD AI technical analysis
SRAD AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close, Barchart turning points, and StockAnalysis moving averages. This static page does not fetch live chart data. Confirm support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, volatility, and invalidation levels in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.54 | Nasdaq closing price on July 31, 2026. The stock fell about 50% over the trailing 52 weeks. |
| Near support | $14.03 to $14.29 | Barchart first and second support levels. The stock trades just below the 50-day average near $14.75, so that average sits only a short distance above the current price. |
| Key support | About $11.66 | The 52-week low set on April 28, 2026. A decisive close below this level with volume would mark a new low and weaken the base case. |
| Near resistance | $14.80 to $15.31 | Barchart first through third resistance points, with the 50-day average near $14.75 adding to the zone. A sustained move above this area is the first step toward trend improvement. |
| Key resistance | $18.37 then $32.22 | The 200-day average near $18.37 is the first major trend marker, followed by the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement near $19.51 and the 52-week high of $32.22 from August 25, 2025. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $14.75, 200-day near $18.37 | Price sits essentially on the 50-day average and clearly below the 200-day average, which keeps the medium-term structure bearish. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46 | The relative strength index near 46 is neutral, neither oversold nor strongly bullish. The three-month bounce of about 11% has not yet changed the longer trend. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.0 million shares | Volume has picked up around earnings, litigation headlines, and the Kalshi and Wimbledon announcements, with about 3.8 million shares traded on July 31. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.60 with elevated option pricing | The 60-month beta is 1.60, and options implied volatility is near 90% with an expected move of about 13% into the August 3 earnings release, reflecting event risk. |
| Invalidation | Close above $18.37 or below $11.66 | A volume breakout above the 200-day average would signal a potential trend change. A close below the 52-week low would weaken the base-case structure. |
SRAD AI trading strategy
The SRAD AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use it with position sizing, explicit loss limits, live chart confirmation, and fresh checks of Sportradar filings, league renewal announcements, litigation developments, buyback execution, and quarterly results.
Wait for SRAD to clear the $15.31 resistance zone with above-average volume and a positive catalyst such as a Q2 2026 beat, litigation progress, a league renewal, or prediction market revenue disclosure before considering a trend position. A cleaner confirmation is a sustained close above the 200-day average near $18.37.
A failed break above resistance, a close below $14.03, or a new 52-week low below $11.66 should invalidate the trend setup.
If SRAD holds the $14.03 to $14.29 support zone without a business thesis break, evaluate the news flow around the August 3, 2026 earnings release, league renewals, litigation milestones, buyback activity, and insider trading patterns before sizing a position.
Do not average down. Set a maximum loss and an invalidation level before entry. Litigation and regulatory outcomes make binary moves possible, so position size should reflect that.
Track quarterly results against the reaffirmed 2026 guidance of €1,557 million to €1,582 million revenue and €390 million to €400 million adjusted EBITDA, securities litigation milestones, prediction market and iGaming revenue, Genius Sports competitive moves, FX trends, buyback progress, and the Kalshi partnership ramp.
Reduce confidence when the company misses again, guidance is lowered, a league switches providers, litigation costs mount, or foreign exchange losses persist.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Sportradar for official sports data, odds, streaming, and integrity services that betting operators need to price and settle in-play wagers and that media companies use for live coverage. The value is exclusivity: Sportradar holds multi-year data rights with the NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, UEFA, FIFA, Bundesliga, Wimbledon, and other rights holders, and it now extends the model to prediction markets through Kalshi.
Sportradar benefits from multi-year exclusive league data agreements that create high switching costs for leagues and for operators that integrate its feeds. The moat is real but contested, because Genius Sports competes for the same rights and operator relationships, and leagues have an incentive to split rights among multiple providers. Prediction markets and iGaming add new distribution lanes rather than a fundamentally different moat.
The thesis can fail if the securities class action results in material financial or regulatory liability, a key league awards data rights to Genius Sports or an in-house solution, guidance is cut after further quarterly misses, foreign exchange losses keep weighing on reported profit, or large sportsbooks consolidate and demand lower prices for data.
Founder and group CEO Carsten Koerl has run the company since 2001, and management added Sameer Deen as COO in May 2026. Insider data from Barchart shows about 856,000 shares bought by insiders over the past 6 to 12 months, and the board authorized a $1 billion buyback with a $250 million enhanced program announced in April 2026. The record of three consecutive quarterly misses is the main execution question.
Legal sports betting keeps expanding globally, the 2026 World Cup drove customer engagement and wagering through the summer, and prediction markets and iGaming are emerging growth lanes. The demand for official low-latency sports data is a structural tailwind, but leagues are becoming more sophisticated about monetizing rights directly, and competition from Genius Sports limits moat durability.
At the July 31 close, Sportradar had a market capitalization of about $4.35 billion and traded near 61x trailing earnings, about 26x forward earnings, roughly 3.0x sales, and near 9x price to free cash flow. The cash flow and forward multiples are reasonable only if the company delivers the reaffirmed 2026 guidance and resolves litigation; the margin of safety is limited given the legal and execution risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRAD price and market capitalization | $14.54 close and about $4.35 billion market capitalization on July 31, 2026 | Barchart quote overview; market cap verified as $14.54 x 299.46 million shares | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual results | Revenue of about €1.29 billion, up 16.6%, and net income of about €100 million; Barchart reports about $1.46 billion revenue and $113.5 million net income in USD | Sportradar FY2025 Form 20-F and annual results via StockAnalysis and Barchart fundamentals | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of €346.5 million, up 11% year over year, net loss of €6.3 million driven by foreign exchange, adjusted EBITDA of €66 million at a 19.0% margin, and free cash flow of €44 million | Sportradar Q1 2026 press release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance and share repurchases | Revenue guidance of €1,557 million to €1,582 million and adjusted EBITDA of €390 million to €400 million; $1 billion authorized buyback with a $250 million enhanced program and about $228 million repurchased through April 24, 2026 | Sportradar Q1 2026 press release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| League and commercial partnerships | Multi-year official data and audiovisual rights with NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, UEFA, FIFA, Bundesliga, Wimbledon, and a prediction markets data partnership with Kalshi announced June 2026 | Sportradar press releases via GlobeNewswire and company website | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical indicators | Trailing PE about 61x, forward PE about 26x, price to sales about 3.0x, price to free cash flow near 9x, beta 1.60, 52-week range $11.66 to $32.22, 50-day average $14.75, 200-day average $18.37 | Barchart key statistics and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Strong Buy from 22 to 23 analysts with an average price target of $21.53, a low of $15.11, and a high of $35.37 | StockAnalysis.com using S&P Global Market Intelligence and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| Securities class action | Securities class action with a lead plaintiff deadline of July 17, 2026, and multiple law firm investigations tied to short seller reports about alleged ties to black-market gambling operators | GlobeNewswire and Business Wire law firm notices | August 3, 2026 |
This SRAD AI stock analysis is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data as of the cutoff date and can be wrong if litigation outcomes, league renewals, quarterly results, foreign exchange moves, prediction market adoption, or market liquidity change.
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