Spire Inc. research snapshot
SR AI stock analysis currently reads Spire Inc. as a regulated natural gas utility that is selling its non-core gas marketing, storage, and Mississippi assets to streamline into a pure-play local distribution company. At the July 10, 2026 close of $80.73, 59.12 million shares yielded a $4.77 billion calculated market cap, matching the Google Finance and Morningstar reports. The company just completed the $650 million storage sale and the $215 million marketing sale, and reported strong FY26 Q2 (March 2026) results with $1.02 billion in revenue and $3.76 EPS. The stock trades at roughly 14.2x trailing earnings with a 4.1% dividend yield. This SR AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice, and its forecast ranges are scenarios rather than promises.
Current price
$80.73
Market cap
$4.77 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Stable regulated gas utility with asset-sale streamlining, but capital needs and modest ROE limit the margin of safety
Trend status
Corrective downtrend from 52-week high with price below the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Spire distributes natural gas to about 1.7 million customers across Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi through regulated utilities. The core business is stable, regulated, and produces recurring rate-base returns. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from exclusive franchise service territories, long-lived gas distribution infrastructure, local operating expertise, and the essential nature of natural gas heating. The moat is durable but fully regulated and subject to rate-case outcomes. | High |
| Management | CEO Steve Lindsey and the leadership team have executed a multi-year asset-sale program, selling storage, marketing, and Mississippi operations for nearly $1 billion. The key question is whether the proceeds reduce debt, fund regulated capex, or return capital to shareholders. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY26 first-half revenue (Oct 2025 to Mar 2026) was about $1.72 billion, with net income of $377.2 million. TTM revenue was about $2.47 billion and TTM net income about $358 million. Revenue trends are shaped by weather and gas costs. | High |
| Valuation | At $80.73, the stock trades at about 14.2x trailing EPS, 1.79x book value, 1.93x sales, and 28.8x free cash flow. The dividend yield was about 4.1%. The valuation is reasonable but not distressed for a regulated gas utility. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is below the 50-day moving average and above the 200-day moving average. The 52-week range is $71.24 to $95.31, so price sits mid-range. RSI and volume suggest the stock is not overbought but needs a catalyst to break higher. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include rate-case delays or disallowances, higher interest expense on a leveraged balance sheet (interest coverage about 2.52x), weather volatility, customer growth stagnation, regulatory gas transition policy, and execution risk from the asset-sale program. | High risk visibility |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because reported financials from Google Finance, Morningstar, and SEC filings are consistent. Forecast confidence is medium due to the net impact of large asset sales and future capex plans. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SR is a watchlist or position-sizing candidate for utility-focused investors. The 4% dividend and asset-sale optionality provide downside support, but the balance sheet and weather-dependent earnings mean the margin of safety is moderate at best. | Medium |
SR AI stock forecast
The SR AI stock forecast starts with the July 10 close of $80.73 and TTM EPS of $5.70. A three-year financial_rigor.py sensitivity using 6%, 3%, and -2% annual EPS growth with 18x, 15x, and 11x terminal PE produced mechanical values near $122, $93, and $59. The wider page ranges below allow for balance-sheet changes from the roughly $1 billion in announced asset sales, dividend growth, financing costs, regulatory execution, and valuation error. They are scenario bands, not price targets.
$100 to $125
More likely if Spire deploys asset-sale proceeds to reduce debt and fund regulated capex, rate cases deliver timely returns, weather is normal, customer growth continues, and the market rewards the streamlined utility with a higher P/E near 18x or above.
$78 to $95
More likely if earnings grow at a low-to-mid single digit pace, asset-sale proceeds are used conservatively, rate cases show mixed outcomes, and the stock trades near 14x to 16x trailing EPS aligned with the current analyst average target near $95.
$55 to $72
More likely if asset-sale proceeds fail to improve the balance sheet, rate cases disappoint, weather or gas costs pressure earnings, debt servicing costs rise, or the market reprices utility stocks to lower multiples.
SR AI technical analysis
SR AI technical analysis uses the $80.73 July 10 close for this July 12 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock below its 50-day moving average and above its 200-day moving average, with low momentum and below-average volume. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $80.73 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $76 to $78 | Support zone near the 200-day moving average area and the lower end of the recent trading range. |
| Secondary support | $71 to $72 | The 52-week low area. A sustained break below this zone would weaken the long-term technical setup. |
| Near resistance | $85 to $87 | The area around the 50-day moving average. Recovery to this level would be the first positive signal. |
| Primary resistance | $95 to $96 | The 52-week high zone. A breakout above this level with volume would be a strong bullish signal. |
| 50-day moving average | About $84 to $85 | TipRanks and Barchart show SR trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating short-term weakness. |
| 200-day moving average | About $77 to $78 | Public technical sources show SR above its 200-day moving average, supporting the long-term trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45, negative MACD | RSI was below neutral, and MACD showed a bearish crossover, so the setup needs a catalyst to turn positive. |
| Volume | About 298,000 shares | Volume on the last trading day was below the 535,000 average, suggesting low conviction in either direction. |
| Volatility | ATR near $2.50 to $3.00 | Position sizing on SR should account for moderate daily swings consistent with a mid-cap utility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $71, then $68 | A close below the 52-week low at $71 would weaken the technical picture. A break below the 200-day area around $77 would be an earlier warning. |
SR AI trading strategy
The SR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines utility-specific business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for SR to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $85, then break above the $95 to $96 resistance zone with improving volume. Use the 200-day moving average near $78 as a trend support.
If the stock fails to hold above the 200-day moving average or breaks below the $71 52-week low, the trend setup loses its case.
For income-focused investors, SR offers a 4.1% dividend yield. Monitor the payout ratio, asset-sale proceeds directed at debt reduction, and regulatory outcomes that support dividend growth.
A dividend cut, large equity issuance, or interest coverage falling below 2.0x would challenge the income thesis.
Track FY26 Q3 and Q4 results, the net use of approximately $940 million in asset-sale proceeds, rate-case filings in Missouri and Alabama, debt levels, and quarterly EPS vs. analyst estimates.
Lower the rating if proceeds are deployed in low-return activities, regulatory outcomes disappoint, or the balance sheet weakens from new capex.
Investment research summary
Spire distributes natural gas to 1.7 million customers across Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi through regulated local distribution companies. The business is essential services with rate-base regulation.
The moat is franchise-protected service territories, long-lived gas distribution infrastructure, local regulatory relationships, and the essential nature of natural gas heating for residential and commercial customers in cold-weather regions.
The thesis can fail if large asset-sale proceeds fail to improve the utility, rate cases produce lower returns, natural gas faces accelerated phase-out policies, debt servicing costs rise, or the streamlined pure-play does not command a higher valuation.
CEO Steve Lindsey and the leadership team have completed several strategic asset sales, streamlining Spire into a pure regulated gas utility. The judgment call is whether this creates lasting value or marks a reduction in growth ambitions.
Gas distribution is a mature, slow-growth industry facing long-term regulatory and policy questions around decarbonization. Short-to-medium-term demand is supported by heating needs, power generation, and industrial use, but the industry is not in a secular growth trend.
At roughly 14x trailing EPS and 1.8x book value with a 4.1% dividend yield, SR is reasonably priced for a regulated gas utility. The margin of safety is moderate and depends on whether the asset-sale program drives earnings growth and balance-sheet improvement.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SR price | $80.73 close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance and Morningstar quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.77 billion, verified as $80.73 x 59,120,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 59.12 million | Google Finance and Morningstar | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.47 billion, cross-verified at 0.2% deviation | Google Finance quarterly statements and Morningstar implied | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $358 million from four trailing quarters | Google Finance quarterly income statements | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $5.70 per share, P/E 14.16x | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY26 Q2 (Mar 2026) revenue | $1.02 billion | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY26 Q2 (Mar 2026) net income | $282.2 million | Google Finance quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 4.09% forward, $3.28 annual per share | Google Finance and Morningstar | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $71.24 to $95.31 | Google Finance and Morningstar | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | About $57.66, P/B 1.40x | Morningstar and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 14.16x TTM PE, 1.79x P/B, 1.93x P/S, 28.83x P/FCF, 4.06% FCF yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
This SR AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong.
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