Bullish case
$43 to $50
More likely if the freight market enters a sustained upcycle, Schneider expands operating margins above 4%, intermodal growth accelerates, and the stock trades at 15-17x normalized earnings of $2.80-$3.20 per share.
Schneider National Inc. research snapshot
SNDR AI Stock Analysis
SNDR AI stock analysis currently reads Schneider National as a cyclical trucking and logistics company recovering from a prolonged freight downturn. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $36.84, market capitalization was about $6.37 billion, and the main question was whether the freight market recovery can sustain margin expansion and earnings growth to justify the elevated trailing P/E near 65x. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$36.84
Market cap
$6.37 billion
AI score
49 / 100
Rating
Cyclical trucking business near 52-week highs
Trend status
Strong recovery uptrend from $20 to $39
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. Schneider has been public since 2017 with moderate analyst coverage from Baird, Argus, and Zacks. Trucking industry data is widely available from public indices and DOT reports.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is the cyclical valuation trap, because depressed earnings inflate the trailing P/E. This page separates factual financial data from scenario judgments about the freight cycle and asks whether current price already reflects a full recovery.
- ai Confidence
- Medium data confidence. Financial figures are cross-checked from public sources, but earnings estimates depend on freight cycle timing.
- investment Certainty
- Low to medium. Schneider is a well-run trucking company with scale and technology, but the industry is cyclical, commodity-like, and capital-intensive. The investment outcome depends on the freight cycle direction, margin recovery, and the price paid.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Schneider is a surface transportation company offering truckload, intermodal, and logistics services. The business is capital-intensive, low-margin, and cyclical. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand reputation, scale in a fragmented industry, intermodal rail partnerships, proprietary routing technology, and dedicated customer contracts. Switching costs are moderate. | Low-medium |
| Management | Outgoing CEO Mark Rourke managed through the freight cycle with disciplined capital allocation. Incoming CEO James Filter takes over July 2026. Management has consistently returned capital via dividends and buybacks. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was $5.67 billion, TTM net income was $97.9 million, and net profit margin was 1.73%. Revenue declined from 2022 peaks on freight recession, but Q1 2026 showed signs of stabilization. | Medium |
| Valuation | At 65x trailing P/E, the stock prices in a strong earnings recovery. Forward P/E near 41x and EV/EBITDA near 10.8x are more reasonable but still reflect recovery expectations. P/B of 2.14x is above historical norms for trucking. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SNDR rallied from $20 to $39 over the past year, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Momentum indicators suggest the stock is nearing overbought territory near its 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks include freight recession persistence, fuel and insurance cost inflation, driver market tightness, customer concentration, and autonomous trucking disruption. The industry is cyclically risky. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium confidence for financial data and business model mapping. Lower confidence for the timing of the freight cycle recovery, which is the main driver of near-term returns. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. Schneider could benefit from a sustained freight recovery, but the stock has already priced in significant improvement. The margin of safety is limited at current levels. | Low-medium |
SNDR AI stock forecast
SNDR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The SNDR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $36.84 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires a sustained freight market recovery, margin expansion toward historical norms, and continued execution in intermodal and logistics. The base case assumes gradual improvement with typical cyclical fluctuations. The bearish case assumes the freight recovery stalls or competition intensifies.
Base case
$32 to $39
More likely if the freight cycle improves gradually, earnings recover to $1.80-$2.20 per share by FY2027, and the stock trades near 16-18x normalized earnings.
Bearish case
$22 to $28
More likely if the freight recession continues or deepens, margins stay compressed below 2%, customer pricing power weakens, or the broader economy slows reducing shipping demand.
SNDR AI technical analysis
SNDR AI Technical Analysis
SNDR AI technical analysis starts from the $36.84 close used for this July 12 static page. The stock has rallied strongly from its $20.11 52-week low, recovering above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. RSI suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory near its 52-week high. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $36.84 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the June 29, 2026 close referenced from Yahoo Finance. |
| Near support | $33 to $34 | Support planning zone around prior consolidation levels and the rising 50-day moving average area. |
| Secondary support | $27 to $28 | The 200-day moving average area. A sustained break would weaken the long-term recovery setup. |
| Near resistance | $39 to $40 | The 52-week high zone around $39.27. Breakout above this level would confirm the uptrend continuation. |
| 50-day moving average | About $33 to $34 | The 50-day moving average has been rising alongside price and is acting as dynamic support. |
| 200-day moving average | About $27 to $28 | The 200-day moving average is also rising and well below current price, supporting the long-term recovery trend. |
| Momentum | RSI approaching overbought, mixed oscillators | RSI is near 65-70, suggesting bullish momentum but approaching overbought levels. Short-term oscillators are mixed near the 52-week high. |
| Volume | About 724,900 shares (below average) | The recent volume snapshot was below the 1.1 million average, suggesting the rally may need volume confirmation for sustainability. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.85 (low) | SNDR has lower volatility than the broader market. Position sizing should account for typical daily moves of 2-3%. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33, then below $28 | A close below $33 (50-day area) weakens the near-term recovery setup. A break below $28 (200-day area) would challenge the long-term uptrend. |
SNDR AI trading strategy
SNDR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The SNDR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines cycle-aware business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Look for SNDR to hold above the $33-$34 support zone and break above the $39.27 52-week high with volume before treating the uptrend as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close below the 50-day area near $33 should reduce confidence in the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If SNDR pulls back toward $33-$34 on no thesis-breaking news, compare price stabilization with freight cycle indicators, fuel cost trends, and upcoming earnings on July 30, 2026.
Do not average down solely because the stock has rallied. Define maximum loss per position before entering and review cycle indicators.
Fundamental monitor
Track Q2 2026 earnings (estimated July 30), revenue growth, operating margin trends, intermodal volume, driver metrics, fuel costs, and management commentary on the freight cycle.
Lower the rating if earnings disappoint despite the recovery narrative or if the stock breaks below key technical levels on volume.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Schneider moves freight across North America using company trucks, rail partnerships, and a brokerage platform. Customers pay for reliable, on-time shipping of goods through truckload, intermodal, and logistics services.
Moat
The moat is moderate: scale in a fragmented industry, multi-decade customer relationships, proprietary routing and technology systems, intermodal rail partnerships, and a strong safety record. But barriers to entry are low in trucking.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if the freight recession persists, margins stay compressed, autonomous trucking disrupts the model, customer concentration creates pricing pressure, or fuel and insurance costs erode profitability.
Management
Mark Rourke led the company through the pandemic and freight cycle with a focus on technology, efficiency, and capital returns. Incoming CEO James Filter takes over in July 2026. Capital allocation has included consistent dividends and share buybacks.
Industry trend
Trucking is a mature, cyclical industry driven by GDP growth, consumer spending, and supply chain demand. The shift toward supply chain digitization, intermodal growth, and potential autonomous trucking represent the key structural evolutions.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 65x trailing earnings, SNDR prices in a full cycle recovery. Normalized earnings of $1.80-$2.80 per share would put the stock at 13-20x, which is reasonable for a cyclical trucker. The margin of safety depends on the pace and durability of the freight recovery.
Source-backed data
SNDR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNDR price | $36.84 close referenced from Yahoo Finance (latest available) | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.37 billion | Yahoo Finance and TradingView market cap data | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $5.67 billion | Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $97.9 million | Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool | July 12, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | Approximately 65x | Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 175.1 million | Motley Fool | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $265.1 million | Motley Fool and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt | $398.8 million | Motley Fool and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 1.07% ($0.39 per share annualized) | Motley Fool and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $259.9 million (levered: $183.2 million) | Yahoo Finance and Motley Fool | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $6.59 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This SNDR AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong. Trucking industry analysis is particularly sensitive to economic cycles that are inherently difficult to predict.
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