Bullish case
$42 to $48
More likely if the freight market enters a sustained upcycle, margins keep expanding, FY2026 EPS lands above the raised guidance range, and the stock trades near 25-30x consensus FY2027 EPS of about $1.65.
Schneider National Inc. research snapshot
SNDR AI Stock Analysis
SNDR AI stock analysis reads Schneider National as a cyclical trucking and logistics company whose earnings cycle is clearly turning up, but the price already reflects a lot of that improvement. This is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the reference price was $35.45 (prior close $35.74 on July 31, 2026), market capitalization was about $6.21 billion, and the Q2 2026 report delivered an earnings beat with raised full year guidance. The open question is whether the freight recovery keeps pushing margins toward historical norms, because the stock still trades at a high trailing P/E near 55x and about 26x forward earnings. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$35.45
Market cap
$6.21 billion
AI score
53 / 100
Rating
Improving earnings cycle, rich valuation, neutral momentum
Trend status
Recovery uptrend intact, pullback below the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Schneider is a well-established public company with 16 analysts covering it, active news flow, and abundant trucking industry data from public sources. The main AI research trap is consensus convergence, because most coverage already assumes a freight recovery.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is the cyclical valuation trap, because depressed earnings still inflate the trailing P/E. This page separates verified financial data from scenario judgments about freight cycle timing and checks whether the current price already reflects the improving fundamentals.
- ai Confidence
- Medium to high data confidence. Financial statements, guidance, and analyst targets are taken from public sources, while the earnings recovery forecast depends on freight cycle timing.
- investment Certainty
- Low to medium. Schneider is a well-run transportation company with scale and technology, but trucking is cyclical, capital-intensive, and commodity-like. The outcome depends on the durability of the freight recovery, margin expansion, and the price paid near 55x trailing earnings.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Schneider moves freight across North America through Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics. The business is capital-intensive, low-margin, and cyclical, but scale and a multimodal mix add some resilience. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is moderate: scale in a fragmented industry, a trusted brand and safety record, proprietary routing technology, rail partnerships, and dedicated customer contracts. Entry barriers in trucking remain low. | Low-medium |
| Management | Jim Filter, a 27-year company veteran, became President and CEO on July 1, 2026 as part of a planned transition, with Mark Rourke moving to Executive Chairman. The team has run cost and structural initiatives and keeps returning capital through dividends and buybacks. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Improving. FY2025 revenue rose 7.3% to $5.67 billion, Q2 2026 revenue grew 10% to $1.57 billion, all three segments improved, and FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $0.90-$1.10 from $0.70-$1.00. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | Rich on trailing and moderate on forward. About 55.6x trailing P/E, 26.3x forward P/E, 10.2x EV/EBITDA, and 2.05x book value. The price already includes a durable earnings recovery. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Neutral. The stock rallied from $20.11 to a $39.27 high in June 2026, then pulled back below the 50-day moving average of $36.43 while holding well above the 200-day average of $29.21. RSI is near 45. | Medium |
| Risk level | Medium-high. The freight recession could resume, fuel and insurance costs could rise, the driver market can tighten, customers can churn, and autonomous trucking threatens the model long term. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium. Financial data is well sourced, but cycle timing is the main variable and cannot be predicted with precision. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. Fundamentals are improving and guidance was raised, but the stock already trades at a premium, so the margin of safety is limited at current levels. | Low-medium |
SNDR AI stock forecast
SNDR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The SNDR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $35.45 reference price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case needs a durable freight upcycle and margin expansion, the base case assumes gradual improvement, and the bearish case assumes the recovery stalls. Company guidance for FY2026 adjusted EPS is $0.90-$1.10 and the analyst consensus is about $0.96, so the scenarios use those as anchors.
Base case
$34 to $40
More likely if freight improves gradually, the company delivers within its $0.90-$1.10 adjusted EPS guidance, and the stock stays near the analyst consensus target of about $37.
Bearish case
$25 to $31
More likely if the freight recovery stalls or reverses, margins stay compressed, customer churn accelerates, or the broader economy weakens, pulling the stock back toward the 200-day average near $29.
SNDR AI technical analysis
SNDR AI Technical Analysis
SNDR AI technical analysis starts from the $35.45 reference price on August 3, 2026. The stock rose from a $20.11 52-week low to a $39.27 high on June 9, 2026, and is now consolidating below the 50-day moving average of $36.43 while holding above the 200-day average of $29.21. RSI is neutral near 45. Because this static page does not fetch live market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.45 | Reference price from the August 3, 2026 session; prior close was $35.74 on July 31, 2026. Source: stockanalysis.com. |
| Near support | $33.50 to $34.50 | July consolidation zone. The July 30, 2026 earnings-day low was $33.69. A close below this zone would signal near-term weakness. |
| Secondary support | $29 to $30 | The 200-day moving average area around $29.21. Losing this level would challenge the long-term recovery setup. |
| Near resistance | $36 to $37 | The 50-day moving average near $36.43 and nearby swing highs. A reclaim here would restore short-term momentum. |
| Primary resistance | $39 to $40 | The June 9, 2026 52-week high of $39.27. A volume breakout above it would confirm the uptrend continuation. |
| 50-day moving average | $36.43 | Price is below the 50-day average, so the near-term trend is still corrective until it is reclaimed. |
| 200-day moving average | $29.21 | Well below price, keeping the longer-term recovery trend intact. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45, neutral | Momentum has cooled from the June overbought reading. Price needs to hold support and reclaim the 50-day average to rebuild upside momentum. |
| Volume | About 957,000 shares (20-day average) | Earnings-day volume was about 1.18 million shares. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.19 (5-year) | SNDR is slightly more volatile than the broader market. Position sizing should account for daily moves of roughly 2-4%. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33.50, then below $29 | A close below $33.50 breaks the July consolidation. A close below $29 (200-day area) would challenge the long-term uptrend. |
SNDR AI trading strategy
SNDR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The SNDR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines freight cycle evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. The next earnings report is expected in late October 2026.
Trend-following setup
Watch for SNDR to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $36.43 and then break above the $39.27 high on above-average volume before treating the uptrend as confirmed.
A failed breakout or a daily close back below $33.50 should reduce confidence in the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If SNDR pulls back toward the $33.50-$34.50 support on no thesis-breaking news, compare price stabilization with freight rate data, fuel costs, and management commentary before considering entry.
Do not average down just because the stock has already rallied. Define the maximum loss per position before entry and honor a stop below $33.50.
Fundamental monitor
Track Q3 2026 earnings (expected late October 2026), revenue growth, operating margin, segment operating ratios, intermodal volume, fuel costs, and commentary on freight cycle conditions.
Lower the rating if results miss the raised FY2026 guidance path or if the stock breaks below key support on volume.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Schneider moves freight across North America with company trucks, rail partnerships, and logistics services. Customers pay for reliable, on-time shipment through truckload, intermodal, and brokerage offerings.
Moat
The moat is moderate: scale in a fragmented industry, a trusted brand and safety record, proprietary routing technology, rail partnerships, and dedicated contracts. Entry barriers are still low in trucking.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if the freight recovery stalls, margins stay compressed, customer churn accelerates, fuel and insurance costs erode profits, or autonomous trucking disrupts the economics of the industry.
Management
Jim Filter, a 27-year insider, took over as CEO on July 1, 2026, with Mark Rourke as Executive Chairman. The team has run cost and structural initiatives and keeps returning capital through dividends and small buybacks.
Industry trend
Trucking is a mature, cyclical industry tied to GDP and consumer spending. The current cycle is turning up after a long freight recession, with structural shifts from digitization, intermodal growth, capacity discipline, and autonomous trucking ahead.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 55.6x trailing and 26.3x forward earnings, SNDR prices in a durable recovery. Consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS of about $0.96 and FY2027 EPS of about $1.65 put the stock at about 37x and 21x respectively, leaving limited margin of safety.
Source-backed data
SNDR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNDR reference price | $35.45 intraday on Aug 3, 2026; prior close $35.74 on Jul 31, 2026 | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence / CBOE) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.21 billion | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $6.33 billion | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $5.82 billion, up 6.3% | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income / EPS | $111.6 million / $0.64 | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.67 billion, up 7.3% year over year | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $1.57 billion, up 10%; adjusted diluted EPS $0.29 vs $0.23 consensus; adjusted operating ratio 94.5% | Schneider National Q2 2026 earnings release | Jul 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | Raised to $0.90-$1.10 from $0.70-$1.00 (consensus about $0.96) | Schneider National Q2 2026 earnings release | Jul 30, 2026 |
| P/E and forward P/E | 55.64x trailing, 26.26x forward | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA and P/B | 10.20x and 2.05x | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $327.1 million cash and $396.1 million total debt (TTM); $292.7 million cash at June 30, 2026 | stockanalysis.com / Schneider National Q2 2026 release | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $207.8 million | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.40 per year, 1.13% yield; ex-dividend date Sep 11, 2026 | stockanalysis.com / Schneider National | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average 12-month price target $37.00 from 16 analysts (range $27 to $45) | S&P Global Market Intelligence / TipRanks via stockanalysis.com | Jul 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range and moving averages | 52-week range $20.11 to $39.27; 50-day average $36.43; 200-day average $29.21; RSI 44.8 | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) | Aug 3, 2026 |
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This SNDR AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. Trucking industry analysis is especially sensitive to economic cycles that are inherently difficult to predict.
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