Sandisk Corporation research snapshot
SNDK AI stock analysis reads Sandisk Corporation as a NAND flash and storage company in the middle of a powerful memory upcycle whose stock price has become far more volatile than the operating results. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the last close used for this page was $1,214.83 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $179.90 billion, and the stock was up roughly 400% year to date before a July drawdown that took it about 50% below its 52-week high near $2,354. The company reported record results for fiscal Q3 2026 with revenue of $5.95 billion, a 78.4% gross margin, GAAP net income of $3.615 billion, and $41.6 billion of remaining performance obligations, and it guided fiscal Q4 2026 revenue to $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $30.00 to $33.00. The AI analysis does not predict a certain stock price; it frames a scenario debate between durable memory pricing and a crowded, cyclical AI trade. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$1,214.83
Market cap
$179.90 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Memory supercycle at a volatile inflection
Trend status
Long-term uptrend with a sharp July drawdown
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sandisk sells NAND flash storage, SSDs, embedded products, removable cards, USB drives, wafers, and components for data center, edge, and consumer markets, with TTM revenue near $13.18 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from process know-how, flash IP, scale, customer qualification, brand recognition, and the Kioxia-linked manufacturing ecosystem, which in the current shortage is translating into record gross margins. | Medium |
| Management | David Goeckeler is executing the post-Western Digital separation, pushing a New Business Model of multi-year customer agreements, and driving the mix toward data center customers that grew 645% year over year in fiscal Q3 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue was $5.95 billion up 97% sequentially, GAAP gross margin was 78.4%, GAAP net income was $3.615 billion, nine-month operating cash flow was $4.545 billion, and the company ended the quarter with zero debt. | High |
| Valuation | At roughly 40.9x trailing EPS and 13.05x book value, the market is pricing an extended memory upcycle; the forward math swings sharply with NAND price assumptions. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock remains well above the 200-day moving average near $843, but a July decline of roughly 50% put price below the 20-day and 50-day averages, with RSI near 40.7 and negative directional pressure. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is very high because memory pricing, CXMT and other supply additions, customer concentration, Flash Ventures exposure, and a crowded AI trade can reverse the thesis quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for recent financial facts and market-cap math that cross-validated to within 0.02% on TTM revenue, lower for long-term NAND cycle and memory price forecasts. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the page is a research framework, not a buy or sell instruction, and the stock has shown it can move about 50% in either direction in weeks. | Medium-low |
SNDK AI stock forecast
The SNDK AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $1,214.83 quote rather than a point target. The bullish case needs memory pricing and data center demand to hold through the August 5, 2026 earnings report and beyond, while the bearish case becomes more likely if CXMT capacity, AI capex fatigue, or a NAND supply increase rolls pricing over. Analyst targets span $1,000 to $3,169 with an average near $2,218.
$1,800 to $2,400
More likely if fiscal Q4 revenue lands near or above the $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion guidance, the 78% plus gross margin holds, New Business Model contracts keep converting the $41.6 billion remaining performance obligations base, and the stock reclaims the 20-day and 50-day moving averages on volume toward the $2,354 high.
$1,100 to $1,700
More likely if memory pricing stays favorable but the market waits for proof that the new multi-year agreements can reduce cyclicality without forcing heavy capex, leaving the stock to trade between the 100-day moving average near $1,332 and the 50-day moving average near $1,709.
$700 to $1,050
More likely if CXMT and other NAND supply additions accelerate, AI data center spending cools, a major customer delays purchases, memory pricing rolls over, or valuation compresses toward the 200-day moving average near $843 and the $1,000 analyst low target.
SNDK AI technical analysis
SNDK AI technical analysis starts from the $1,214.83 close on July 31, 2026. Barchart showed the 5-day average near $1,177, the 20-day near $1,509, the 50-day near $1,709, the 100-day near $1,332, and the 200-day near $843, with 14-day RSI near 40.7, a bearish -DI above +DI, and extreme realized volatility. Live chart data should be checked before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1,214.83 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 148.09 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $1,187 to $1,214 | The July 31 intraday low was $1,187.26 and the close was $1,214.83. A break below this zone would open the path toward the $1,050 area. |
| 100-day moving average | $1,331.94 | Barchart reported the 100-day average near $1,331.94 on July 31, 2026, acting as the first overhead supply zone above the close. |
| 20-day moving average | $1,509.39 | Barchart reported the 20-day average near $1,509.39, above price and a key level to reclaim for a short-term recovery. |
| 50-day moving average | $1,709.22 | Barchart reported the 50-day average near $1,709.22 on July 31, 2026, still well above price after the July drawdown. |
| 200-day moving average | $843.09 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $843.09, far below price, which keeps the long-term trend intact despite the pullback. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41, -DI above +DI | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 40.71, 14-day stochastic %K near 21, and ADX near 21 with -DI above +DI, signaling short-term bearish momentum after the July decline. |
| Volume | About 16.1 million average shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both listed 20-day average volume near 16.1 million shares, with 21.2 million shares traded on July 31. |
| Volatility | Extreme | Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 165% and a 14-day ATR of about $198, so position sizing must account for very large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1,187 | A decisive close below the July 31 low of $1,187.26 would extend the correction toward the $1,050 area; a reclaim above the 20-day near $1,509 would rebuild short-term momentum. |
SNDK AI trading strategy
The SNDK AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-volatility memory stock. It does not provide personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop rules, filing checks, and fresh market data, especially ahead of the August 5, 2026 earnings report.
Wait for SNDK to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $1,509 and then the 50-day near $1,709 with rising volume before treating the July rebound as a confirmed uptrend.
A failed reclaim or a close back below $1,187 should invalidate the setup and require a fresh review.
If SNDK tests the $1,187 to $1,214 support zone without a new fundamental break, compare the price reaction with NAND pricing news, CXMT capacity headlines, customer agreement updates, and the August 5 earnings guide.
Avoid averaging down unless maximum loss, position size, and thesis failure triggers are set before entry, because memory stocks can gap sharply on pricing news.
Track fiscal Q4 revenue and non-GAAP EPS against the $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and $30.00 to $33.00 guidance, gross margin, cash generation, contract liabilities, remaining performance obligations, Flash Ventures exposure, and the $6 billion share repurchase program.
Reduce confidence if price strength is driven by analyst targets while filings show weaker cash conversion, falling memory prices, or lower contract visibility.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Sandisk to store, move, and process data across SSDs, embedded storage, removable media, USB drives, wafers, and components, with AI data center demand now the highest-profile growth driver.
The moat is based on flash process know-how, customer qualification, supply scale, product breadth, brand recognition, and the Kioxia-linked manufacturing relationship, and it shows up as record margins in a shortage, but it does not protect pricing in an oversupply.
The thesis fails if NAND supply from CXMT or others normalizes faster than expected, long-term agreements prove less protective than hoped, Flash Ventures obligations consume cash, or customers delay AI storage purchases, which is exactly what the July 2026 drawdown started to price in.
David Goeckeler led Western Digital before the separation and now chairs and runs Sandisk. The key test is whether the New Business Model of multi-year agreements with firm financial commitments can lower the cyclicality that has historically defined flash memory.
AI workloads increase storage intensity in data centers and edge devices, and memory pricing and margins are at cycle highs, but NAND remains exposed to supply additions, average selling price swings, customer inventory cycles, and concentrated buying power.
At roughly 40.9x trailing EPS and 13.05x book value the market already assumes a durable upcycle. Margin of safety depends on sustained cash flow, disciplined capex, and proof that the new contract model lowers cycle risk rather than on brand history.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK price used | $1,214.83 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $179.90 billion, verified as $1,214.83 x 148,090,000 shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 148.09 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $13,184 million, up 82.76%, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com pages with 0.02% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue | $5.950 billion, up 97% sequentially and up 251% year over year | Sandisk Q3 FY2026 press release | April 30, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q3 2026 gross margin | 78.4% on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis | Sandisk Q3 FY2026 press release | April 30, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q3 2026 GAAP net income | $3.615 billion, with GAAP diluted EPS of $23.03 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $23.41 | Sandisk Q3 FY2026 press release | April 30, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q3 2026 segment revenue | Datacenter $1,467 million up 233% sequentially and up 645% year over year, Edge $3,663 million up 118% sequentially, Consumer $820 million down 10% sequentially | Sandisk Q3 FY2026 press release | April 30, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q4 2026 guidance | Revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $30.00 to $33.00 | Sandisk Q3 FY2026 press release | April 30, 2026 |
| Nine-month operating cash flow | $4.545 billion for the nine months ended April 3, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $3.735 billion cash and equivalents with zero total debt at April 3, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Remaining performance obligations | $41.6 billion at April 3, 2026, with $41.2 billion not yet billed | SEC Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Contract liabilities | $511 million at April 3, 2026, tied to long-term agreements | SEC Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | $6 billion authorized by the Board on April 30, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM EPS basis | StockAnalysis.com income statement shows TTM EPS of $28.77 while the statistics page shows $29.71, a 1.6% spread | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing valuation | PE 40.90, PS 13.65, PB 13.05, P/FCF 40.34, EV/EBITDA 31.96, PEG 0.04 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE 6.66 on the statistics page versus about 18.2x on the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS estimate of $66.68 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $19.84B with adjusted EPS $66.68, FY2027 revenue estimate $49.87B with adjusted EPS $212.95 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 23, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $2,218 across 23 analysts, low $1,000, median $2,250, and high $3,169 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 23, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 15 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell out of 23 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 23, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Susquehanna $3,250 to $3,050, Wells Fargo $1,250 to $1,620, Bernstein maintained $3,000, Goldman Sachs $1,200 to $2,200 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | July 23, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.86 million shares short, 5.31% of shares outstanding, 0.64 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $4.639 billion, capital expenditures of $179 million, free cash flow of $4.46 billion | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Total assets of $17.075 billion, total liabilities of $3.298 billion, shareholders equity of $13.777 billion at April 3, 2026 | SEC Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $1,509, 50-day SMA near $1,709, 100-day SMA near $1,332, 200-day SMA near $843, 14-day RSI near 40.7, 14-day historic volatility near 165% | Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
This SNDK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if filings, prices, industry supply, customer demand, or market conditions change.
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