SL Green Realty Corp. research snapshot
SLG AI stock analysis reads SL Green Realty Corp as Manhattan largest office landlord, managing interests in about 55 buildings totaling 30.8 million square feet, with a portfolio anchored by One Vanderbilt. The stock faces a challenging office market where physical occupancy remains around 50-55% of pre-pandemic levels, interest expense consumes most operating income (interest coverage near 0.15x), and GAAP net income has been negative. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, SLG closed at $48.68 on July 10, 2026, market capitalization was about $3.46 billion, and the 52-week range is $34.77 to $66.29. Recovery leasing and joint-venture activity support a base case, but the dividend yield of 5.18% and a book value multiple near 1.0x leave limited room for error. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based and not a single price prediction. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$48.68
Market cap
$3.46 billion
AI score
48 / 100
Rating
Manhattan office landlord navigating a challenged office market with high leverage, negative GAAP earnings, and a return-to-office recovery that remains partial
Trend status
Below the 200-day moving average; above the 50-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SL Green owns and manages Manhattan office properties, anchored by the flagship One Vanderbilt tower. It holds interests in 30.8 million square feet across 55 buildings, with 24.0 million square feet of direct ownership in Manhattan. The business quality is tied to the health of Manhattan as a global business hub. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and comes from the scarcity of prime Manhattan office locations, the One Vanderbilt competitive position, developer relationships, and institutional knowledge of the New York City market. It does not have an economic moat according to Morningstar because capital can flow to competing developments and office demand is structurally uncertain. | Low-medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Marc Holliday has led SL Green since the late 1990s and is a significant shareholder. The team is experienced in Manhattan development, leasing, capital recycling, and joint ventures. The primary test is whether capital allocation and asset sales can reduce the 150% debt-to-equity ratio while occupancy and NOI recover. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue TTM is about $937 million, while net income available to common stockholders TTM is negative at -$177 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $186.88 million with net income of -$84.11 million. Same-store NOI was positive per Morningstar, driven by strong unconsolidated joint venture performance. GAAP losses are driven by depreciation and interest costs. | High |
| Valuation | At $48.68, SLG trades at 3.71x revenue, 1.04x book value, 24.18x EV/EBITDA, 20.38x price to cash flow, and a 5.18% dividend yield. The trailing P/E is not meaningful due to negative GAAP earnings. A recovery scenario requires FFO growth and multiple expansion to support the current price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SLG is above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average. The 52-week range of $34.77 to $66.29 shows both the deep distress low and the recovery potential. RSI data on a daily timeframe has been variable as office REITs trade on macro sentiment. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated. Interest coverage of 0.15x means earnings do not cover interest expense. Debt to equity is 150%. The office sector faces secular work-from-home headwinds. Manhattan physical occupancy is only 50-55% of pre-pandemic. AI-driven white-collar job displacement adds uncertainty. SLG has significant asset-level debt maturities to manage. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported 2025 financial data, market cap, shares, valuation ratios, dividend data, and technical inputs. Medium for future leasing absorption, interest rate paths, office utilization trends, asset sale prices, and capital market access. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. SLG has a well-understood portfolio and experienced management, but the office sector outlook, leverage, and GAAP losses create a high bar for a recovery investment thesis. | Low-medium |
SLG AI stock forecast
The SLG AI stock forecast uses leasing velocity, occupancy, same-store NOI, FFO per share, asset sale activity, interest rates, Manhattan office demand, and REIT valuation ranges rather than a deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if physical occupancy recovers above 60%, leasing spreads remain positive, asset sales reduce leverage, and interest rates decline. The bearish case becomes more likely if office utilization stagnates, tenant bankruptcies increase, leases roll down materially, or capital markets restrict refinancing.
$62 to $72
More likely if Manhattan office occupancy trends toward 65%+, FFO per share recovers, same-store NOI growth accelerates, asset recycling reduces net debt, interest rates decline, and office REIT multiples re-rate to historical averages. A return to a mid-cycle valuation would support a higher price range.
$42 to $52
More likely if leasing continues at the Q1 2026 pace, same-store NOI stays flat to slightly positive, the dividend is maintained, leverage stays near 150%, and the stock trades near or slightly below book value. The current price is within this range.
$30 to $38
More likely if physical occupancy stalls or declines, interest coverage stays near 0.15x, a dividend cut or suspension occurs, asset sales fail to reduce leverage, or office REIT valuations compress further. A recession or acceleration of work-from-home trends would increase bear-case probability.
SLG AI technical analysis
SLG AI technical analysis starts from the $48.68 close on July 10, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average, reflecting a mixed intermediate trend. The 52-week range of $34.77 to $66.29 frames the broader trading band. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on July 22, 2026, Manhattan office leasing data, interest rate moves, and REIT sector flows.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.68 | Latest verified close reported for July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $44 to $48 | This zone represents the recent trading range support. Holding it keeps the short-term trend intact. |
| Secondary support | $38 to $42 | A break below $44 would likely test the $38 to $42 zone, which aligns with prior reaction lows from April 2026. |
| Resistance | $52 to $56 | This zone represents the upper boundary of the recent consolidation. A breakout would need positive leasing news and sector momentum. |
| Major resistance | $60 to $66 | The 52-week high of $66.29 is the major resistance. The stock would need a significant re-rating of office REIT sentiment to reach this range. |
| 50-day moving average | ~$46 to $47 | SLG recently cleared this level. Holding above it short-term is constructive. |
| 200-day moving average | ~$52 to $54 | The 200-day MA is above the current price. A move above this level would signal a trend improvement. |
| Momentum | Mixed | Daily RSI has oscillated in the 40-60 range, reflecting trend indecision rather than strong directional momentum. |
| Volume | 20-day average approx. 1.0 million shares | Volume has been below the 1.2M average recently. A breakout above $52 would be more credible with expanding volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.57 | SLG has higher beta than the broad market and the REIT sector average, meaning larger drawdowns in risk-off environments. |
| Invalidation | Close below $38 or dividend cut | A break below $38 or a dividend cut/reduction would significantly weaken the base case. Lease roll-down acceleration would also invalidate recovery assumptions. |
SLG AI trading strategy
The SLG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price action, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings on July 22, 2026, leasing spreads, occupancy data, asset sale announcements, interest rate decisions, and portfolio NOI trends.
Track whether SLG can clear the $52 to $54 resistance zone (200-day moving average area) with expanding volume. A sustained move above the 200-day MA on positive leasing news or interest rate relief would improve the intermediate-term setup.
Reduce confidence if price fails at $52 resistance, if volume contracts on up days and expands on down days, or if office REIT peers weaken together on sector headwinds.
Use pullbacks toward the $42 to $44 support zone as a watchlist condition only if Q2 2026 earnings show stable or improving same-store NOI, leasing activity remains constructive, and no dividend-related concerns emerge.
Do not treat the book value multiple or dividend yield as a valuation floor. Office REIT valuations can stay below book value for extended periods when secular uncertainty is high.
Track same-store NOI growth, occupancy rate, leasing volume and spreads, FFO per share, net debt to EBITDA, interest coverage, asset sale proceeds, debt maturity schedule, and dividend payout ratio.
A mix of declining occupancy, negative leasing spreads, rising vacancy, higher interest costs, asset sale delays, and a break below $38 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
SL Green is paid to own, lease, develop, and manage Manhattan office buildings. Tenants pay rent for physical workspace, and SLG converts property cash flow into dividends and incremental development and acquisition returns. The flagship asset One Vanderbilt generates premium rent from financial and technology tenants.
The competitive position comes from prime Manhattan locations, development expertise demonstrated by One Vanderbilt, institutional relationships, and the scale of 30.8 million square feet. The moat is narrower than pre-pandemic because remote and hybrid work models have reduced the pricing power of even well-located office space.
The thesis can fail if return-to-office trends stall permanently, interest rates stay elevated, occupancy stays at 50-55% for years, tenant credit losses increase, debt maturities cannot be refinanced on favorable terms, the dividend is cut, book value continues to decline, or capital recycling fails to close the leverage gap.
CEO Marc Holliday has led SL Green since 1997 and is aligned through significant personal share ownership. The team has navigated New York City real estate cycles, the pandemic, and the transition to hybrid work. The main test is whether asset recycling, development, and leasing execution can restore FFO coverage and reduce leverage.
The office sector faces a structural challenge from hybrid and remote work. Manhattan physical occupancy at 50-55% of pre-pandemic levels is an improvement from pandemic lows but remains well below the historical baseline. AI-driven white-collar job displacement adds uncertainty. Premium Class A buildings like One Vanderbilt are outperforming, while older Class B and C properties face more pressure.
At $48.68, SLG trades near 1.04x book value, 24.18x EV/EBITDA, and a 5.18% dividend yield. The valuation assumes some recovery in profitability and occupancy. The margin of safety is limited because GAAP losses, high leverage, and sector headwinds mean book value and dividends are not guaranteed floors. A full recovery would need to see FFO per share sustainably above the current dividend payout.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLG price | $48.68 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance SLG summary page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.46 billion, verified as $48.68 x 71.12 million shares (0.06% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification / Morningstar | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 71.12 million shares outstanding | Morningstar SLG quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue TTM | $937.37 million, cross-validated against Morningstar implied at $932.8 million (0.24% deviation) | Yahoo Finance SLG key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income TTM | $177.04 million GAAP net loss available to common stockholders | Yahoo Finance SLG key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $186.88 million revenue, $84.11 million GAAP net loss | Yahoo Finance SLG financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Portfolio metrics | 55 buildings, 30.8 million sq ft including 24.0 million sq ft Manhattan ownership, 1.4 million sq ft debt/preferred equity investments, 3 managed third-party buildings | Morningstar SLG company report (Kevin Brown, June 26, 2026) | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and liquidity | $153.25 million total cash (mrq), 150.04% debt to equity, interest coverage 0.15x | Yahoo Finance SLG key statistics / Morningstar | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and EBITDA | $9.02 billion enterprise value, 24.18x EV/EBITDA | Yahoo Finance SLG key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $2.52 annual dividend, 5.18% dividend yield, 3.71x P/S, 1.04x P/B, 20.38x P/CF, 24.18x EV/EBITDA | Morningstar and Yahoo Finance valuation pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA approx. $46-47, 200-day MA approx. $52-54, beta 1.57, 52-week range $34.77-$66.29, 20-day avg volume ~1.0M shares | Yahoo Finance SLG summary / Morningstar | July 12, 2026 |
| Morningstar rating and fair value | No economic moat, standard capital allocation, stock trading at premium to fair value (unlocked for subscribers) | Morningstar SLG analyst report (Kevin Brown, June 26, 2026) | July 12, 2026 |
| Data source gap | FFO and AFFO per share data, detailed debt maturity schedule, and per-property NOI data were not independently verified from multiple third-party sources. Internal FFO estimates were derived from available GAAP and cash flow data. | Multiple sources | July 12, 2026 |
This SLG AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, leasing activity, occupancy, interest rates, asset sale prices, capital market conditions, dividend policy, or Manhattan office demand change.
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