SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. research snapshot
SITE AI stock analysis reads SiteOne Landscape Supply as the largest distributor of landscape supplies in North America with over 700 branches, generating steady free cash flow and benefiting from housing market tailwinds over time, but facing cyclical pressure from high interest rates and a slow housing recovery. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $106.95 on July 10, market capitalization was about $4.74 billion, and the main question was whether a housing market recovery, margin expansion from private brand growth, and bolt-on M&A can offset headwinds from elevated interest rates and seasonal earnings volatility. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$106.95
Market cap
$4.74 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Leading landscape supply distributor with cyclical housing exposure and steady FCF generation
Trend status
Near 52-week low territory, recovery depends on housing market and interest rate trajectory
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SiteOne is the largest landscape supply distributor in North America, operating over 700 branches across the US and Canada with a strong competitive position in a fragmented market. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale advantages in procurement, branch density offering next-day delivery, supplier relationships with leading brands like Hunter, Rain Bird, and Belgard, and a growing private brand program. The moat is moderate and durable but not unbreachable. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Doug Black has led the company since its spin-off from CRH, executing a consistent strategy of organic growth supplemented by bolt-on acquisitions. Management has demonstrated disciplined capital allocation with a track record of value-accretive M&A. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue has grown steadily from $2.2B in 2017 to approximately $4.5B TTM, with FCF generation supporting the business through cycles. The business is seasonal with Q1 typically showing losses and Q2/Q3 generating most profits. Net margins are in the 3-5% range typical for distribution. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At approximately $106.95, SITE trades at 31.6x TTM earnings and about 1.05x TTM revenue. The P/E is elevated relative to the low-single-digit net margin profile, but the nearness to 52-week lows means much of the housing cycle risk is already reflected in the price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SITE is trading near its 52-week low of $100.52, well below the 52-week high of $168.56. The stock has been in a downtrend over the past year, pressured by interest rate concerns and housing market weakness. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are prolonged high interest rates hurting housing activity, commodity price deflation in hardscapes and aggregates, weather-related demand variability, competition from Home Depot and Amazon Business, M&A integration risk, and the seasonal earnings pattern that causes quarterly volatility. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive analysis, financial math, and market data. Lower for forward returns because the housing cycle, interest rate trajectory, and commodity prices are driven by macro factors that no model can predict with reliability. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. SiteOne is a high-quality distributor with a leading market position and steady FCF, but the cyclicality of housing, the elevated P/E of 31.6x on normalized earnings, and the current macro uncertainty make near-term price direction hard to assess. | Medium-low |
SITE AI stock forecast
The SITE AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a promise. Using a July 10, 2026 close near $106.95, TTM EPS of $3.38, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans a bearish area near $72, a base area near $119, and a bullish area near $180. These outputs depend on revenue growth, operating margin recovery, housing market conditions, and the terminal valuation multiple.
$150 to $185
More likely if interest rates decline, housing starts and remodeling activity recover strongly, SiteOne executes margin expansion through private brand growth and operational leverage, M&A adds 2-3% accretive growth annually, and the market assigns a premium 35x multiple reflecting improved visibility.
$110 to $130
More likely if the housing market gradually recovers over 2-3 years, SiteOne grows revenue 6-8% annually through modest same-store growth and M&A, operating margins stabilize near 5-6%, and the stock trades at 25-28x TTM earnings in line with distribution peers.
$60 to $80
More likely if interest rates stay elevated, housing activity remains depressed, the economy enters a recession, commodity prices deflate sharply, or competition from big-box retailers and e-commerce intensifies, compressing margins and reducing the sustainable multiple to 18-22x.
SITE AI technical analysis
SITE AI technical analysis reflects a stock under cyclical pressure from housing market concerns. As of the July 10, 2026 market data used for this July 12 page, SITE closed at $106.95 after a recovery day that broke above the previous close of $106.60. The stock is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range, approaching psychologically important support zones, while well below its 200-day moving average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $106.95 | Yahoo Finance showed the July 10, 2026 close at $106.95 with a daily range of $106.86 - $109.83. |
| Near support | $100.50 to $102.00 | The 52-week low area near $100.52 serves as critical near-term support. A break below could accelerate selling. |
| Deeper support | $90.00 to $95.00 | Area of prior consolidation from 2023-2024 trading ranges. This zone would represent a significant further decline. |
| Near resistance | $115.00 to $120.00 | The area where the stock traded before the most recent leg down. This zone aligns with prior support-turned-resistance. |
| Upper resistance | $140.00 to $145.00 | The mid-range area between current price and the 52-week high. A break above this level would signal a meaningful trend change. |
| 50-day SMA | Approximately $115.00 to $118.00 | Estimated from the downtrend. The stock is trading below its short-term moving average, confirming the bearish near-term bias. |
| 200-day SMA | Approximately $135.00 to $140.00 | Estimated long-term moving average. SITE trading significantly below this level indicates a medium-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | Bearish, near oversold | RSI likely below 40 given the sustained decline. The stock is approaching oversold territory, which could precede a bounce but does not guarantee one. |
| Volatility | Moderate, rising | Daily moves of 2-3% have become more common as the stock approaches key support levels. Options implied volatility may be elevated. |
| Invalidation | Close above $130.00 | A sustained close above the $130 area (approximately the 50-day SMA zone) would begin to challenge the bearish technical setup. |
SITE AI trading strategy
The SITE AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It combines business evidence, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels for a cyclical distributor stock with seasonal earnings patterns.
Look for SITE to establish a base above $105 with declining downside momentum, followed by a break above $115-120 resistance. Monitor housing starts data, interest rate announcements, and quarterly earnings for fundamental confirmation.
A failure to hold above $100.50 (52-week low) or a close below $95 on volume should reset the thesis. Avoid adding during Q1 earnings season when seasonal losses may cause volatility.
If SITE approaches the $100.50 52-week low without a fundamental deterioration in the business, monitor for positive divergences in RSI or volume. Compare the macro backdrop and SiteOne commentary around housing and commercial activity.
Do not treat price declines near the 52-week low as automatic buying opportunities. Confirm that the housing thesis has not structurally broken. Define maximum loss before entry.
Track quarterly same-store sales growth, gross margin trends, private brand penetration, M&A contribution, branch count, housing starts data, interest rate direction, and management commentary on the outlook for each end market.
Reduce confidence if same-store sales turn negative, gross margins contract below 33%, M&A integration stumbles, or the housing recovery outlook deteriorates materially.
Investment research summary
SiteOne sells landscape supplies to professional contractors, not homeowners. It distributes irrigation, hardscapes, nursery goods, landscape accessories, and golf course supplies through a network of over 700 branches across the US and Canada. Customers pay for next-day delivery and the convenience of one-stop shopping for project materials.
The moat is built from scale-driven procurement advantages, branch density enabling quick delivery, supplier relationships with leading brands, and a fragmented end-market where local competitors lack national buying power. The private brand program adds margin. The moat is moderate, durable, and slowly widening through consolidation.
The thesis fails if interest rates remain structurally higher, crushing housing affordability and remodeling demand for an extended period. It also fails if Home Depot, Lowe's, or Amazon Business capture significant professional contractor share, if commodity prices enter a sustained deflation, or if SiteOne overpays for acquisitions that destroy returns on capital.
CEO Doug Black has led SiteOne since its 2016 spin-off from CRH, executing a disciplined strategy of organic growth plus value-accretive bolt-on M&A. Management emphasize margin improvement through private brands, e-commerce, and branch productivity. Insider ownership is moderate and capital allocation has been consistently rational.
SiteOne operates in the landscape supply distribution industry, which benefits from long-term secular tailwinds including outdoor living trend, population growth in Sun Belt states, commercial landscaping outsourcing, and golf course reinvestment. The industry is cyclical with housing but has a steady replacement and maintenance base.
At 31.6x TTM earnings and about 1.05x revenue, SITE prices in a gradual housing recovery and steady margin expansion. Margin of safety exists if interest rates decline and housing rebounds, but is thin if the housing downturn extends or margins compress. The three-year scenario range of $72 to $180 highlights the wide uncertainty band.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SITE price | $106.95 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.74 billion, verified as $106.95 x 44.31 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 44.31 million diluted shares | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $3.38 | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E | 31.64x, verified using financial_rigor.py | Financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Price-to-sales (TTM) | Approximately 1.05x, based on ~$4.5B TTM revenue | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue Q1 2026 (ended Mar 2026) | $940.1 million | Google Finance income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue FY2025 (estimated TTM) | Approximately $4.5 billion | Google Finance financials (annualized) | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income Q1 2026 | -$26.6 million (seasonal loss, EPS -$0.34) | Google Finance income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | Approximately $35.50 (estimated) | Financial_rigor.py PB calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $100.52 to $168.56 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Average daily volume | 867,920 shares | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Beta | 1.34 | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus target | $151 average, $105 low, $175 high | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| Number of branches | Over 700 branches across US and Canada | SiteOne investor presentations / SEC filings | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | Approximately $5.6 billion | Derived from market cap + debt - cash | July 12, 2026 |
This SITE AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market data, and your own risk constraints. SiteOne operates in a cyclical industry tied to housing and construction activity, and its P/E ratio of over 30x on TTM earnings leaves limited room for error if macro conditions deteriorate.
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