Steven Madden Ltd. research snapshot
SHOO AI stock analysis currently reads Steven Madden Ltd. as a footwear, accessories, and apparel company with strong brand momentum after reporting a robust second quarter on July 30, 2026, with revenue up 19% and adjusted EPS more than doubling. At the August 3, 2026 close used for this August 4 analysis, the share price was $47.68 and market capitalization was about $3.49 billion. The trailing P/E is near 24x on GAAP earnings of about $2.00, and the forward P/E is roughly 20 to 22x on the company's raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.05 to $2.15. The stock trades near its 52-week high after a strong recovery from a low of $23.63. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$47.68
Market cap
$3.49 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Quality recovery with momentum at a reasonable price
Trend status
Uptrend near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Steven Madden designs, sources, and markets fashion-forward footwear, accessories, and apparel under owned brands (Steve Madden, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, Blondo, BB Dakota), licensed brands (Anne Klein, Superga), and the Kurt Geiger London brand acquired in May 2025. Revenue spans wholesale footwear, wholesale accessories and apparel, direct-to-consumer, and licensing, with DTC the fastest growing segment. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moderate moat from brand recognition in accessible fashion footwear, multi-channel distribution across department stores, e-commerce, and roughly 382 company-operated stores, and a long operating history since 1990. Switching costs are low and fashion trends shift quickly, but owned brand control adds merchandising flexibility versus licensing-only peers. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Edward Rosenfeld has led the company since 2007, with founder Steve Madden remaining as design chief. Q2 2026 commentary highlighted disciplined execution, Kurt Geiger integration progress, capture of $92.1 million in tariff refunds used to pay down debt, and a stable quarterly dividend of $0.21. The company did not repurchase shares in the open market during Q2. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $2.74 billion, up about 18%, with TTM net income near $143 million. Q2 2026 gross margin expanded to 46.5% from 41.9% a year ago, operating income reached 6.7% of revenue, and TTM free cash flow was about $224 million. The 2025 impairment that depressed 2025 GAAP EPS has rolled out of the trailing window. | High |
| Valuation | Trailing P/E is about 23.8x, forward P/E roughly 20 to 22x on the raised 2026 guidance of $2.05 to $2.15 adjusted EPS, P/FCF near 15.6x, and dividend yield 1.76%. After a 102% 52-week gain the valuation is no longer distressed; it prices in continued margin and growth momentum rather than a deep margin of safety. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SHOO trades near its 52-week high of $48.76, above its 50-day moving average ($43.22) and 200-day moving average ($39.92) with a golden cross structure. The 14-day RSI of 65.12 is firm but approaching overbought, and the stock is extended after a 20-day gain of about 20%. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks include tariff and freight pressure (Section 301 forced-labor tariffs effective July 2026 and a possible excess-capacity investigation), Middle East conflict supply chain disruption, consumer discretionary spending sensitivity, fashion trend cycles, private label weakness, and Kurt Geiger integration execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for price, market cap, filings, analyst targets, and technical levels. Lower confidence for forward earnings, where GAAP and adjusted figures differ and freight, tariff, and consumer assumptions can move EPS by several cents. | High |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The earnings recovery is real and the balance sheet is improving, but after a roughly 102% 52-week gain the market already expects continued momentum, leaving less room for tariff, freight, or consumer surprises. | Medium |
SHOO AI stock forecast
The SHOO AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $47.68 August 3, 2026 close. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires the brand momentum and margin expansion seen in the first half of 2026 to continue through the back half. The base case assumes execution within the raised 2026 guidance of $2.05 to $2.15 adjusted EPS. The bearish case assumes freight and tariff costs keep rising, consumer spending slows, or valuation multiples compress.
$52 to $58
More likely if the Steve Madden brand keeps gaining share, DTC and Kurt Geiger growth stay strong, 2026 adjusted EPS lands above $2.20, and the market assigns a 24 to 26x forward multiple. This range brackets the $55 median analyst target.
$43 to $50
More likely if revenue growth lands near the guided 11% to 13% range, adjusted EPS comes in around $2.05 to $2.15, freight and tariff headwinds stay manageable, and the stock holds a 20 to 22x forward multiple.
$31 to $38
More likely if consumer spending weakens on economic softness, Section 301 forced-labor tariffs and a possible excess-capacity investigation raise sourcing costs, freight stays disrupted, private label keeps declining, and the market applies a 16 to 18x multiple to lower earnings.
SHOO AI technical analysis
SHOO AI technical analysis starts from the $47.68 August 3, 2026 close used for this August 4 static page. Barchart and S&P Global data show the stock above its 50-day ($43.22) and 200-day ($39.92) moving averages with a golden cross structure, a 14-day RSI near 65, and a 14-day ATR around $1.90. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $47.68 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $45 to $46 | Recent breakout area around the 5-day moving average zone near $45.81. |
| Secondary support | $43.20 | The 50-day moving average. A return to this level would be a normal pullback within the uptrend. |
| Key support | $39.90 | The 100-day and 200-day moving average cluster. Losing this zone would weaken the broader recovery trend. |
| Near resistance | $48.76 | The 52-week high. A close above it with volume would open new high territory. |
| Key resistance | $52 to $55 | The analyst median and high target zone, with psychological resistance near $50. |
| 50-day moving average | About $43.22 | Barchart and S&P Global data show the price above the 50-day MA, supporting the near-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | About $39.92 | The 200-day MA sits below the 50-day MA, keeping the golden cross bullish structure intact. |
| Momentum | RSI 65.12, firm but near overbought | Barchart 14-day RSI near 65 and 14-day stochastic near 84. Momentum is positive but stretched. |
| Volume | About 1.27 million shares | August 3 volume of 1.27 million is slightly above the 20-day average volume of about 1.02 million. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $1.90 | A 14-day ATR of about 3.98% of price means normal daily movement is roughly $1.50 to $2.30. |
| Invalidation | Close below $45, then $43.20 | A close below the 50-day MA would signal the near-term rally is stalling. A sustained break under $43 would put the broader uptrend at risk. |
SHOO AI trading strategy
The SHOO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for SHOO to hold above the 50-day moving average ($43.20) and to close above the $48.76 52-week high on volume before treating the uptrend as confirmed for an extension toward the $52 to $55 target zone.
A daily close below $45 or below the 50-day MA should reduce confidence. The stock is extended after a 20-day gain of about 20%, so chasing breakouts carries elevated short-term risk.
If SHOO pulls back toward the $45 to $46 zone or the 50-day moving average without a fundamental thesis break, compare the price with Q3 2026 earnings results, gross margin trends, and freight and tariff news before considering an entry.
Do not treat a pullback as a buying opportunity solely because the stock rallied. Monitor the Section 301 tariff outlook, the possible excess-capacity investigation, and consumer spending data before sizing a position.
Track Q3 2026 earnings (expected late October 2026), execution against the raised 2026 guidance of $2.05 to $2.15 adjusted EPS, gross margin progression, freight and tariff costs, DTC and Kurt Geiger growth, private label trends, and insider activity.
Lower the rating if guidance is cut, if margins compress beyond the modeled freight headwind, if tariff scope expands, if consumer spending decelerates, or if inventory builds unexpectedly.
Investment research summary
Steven Madden designs and distributes fashion-forward footwear, accessories, and apparel through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels, using owned brands, licensed brands, and the acquired Kurt Geiger London brand to reach the accessible fashion segment.
The moat is moderate: brand recognition and shelf space in department stores, a growing direct-to-consumer channel, owned brand control, and a long operating history since 1990. Low switching costs and fast fashion cycles limit durability.
The thesis can fail if freight and Section 301 tariffs keep squeezing margins, if the Middle East conflict disrupts sourcing, if consumer spending slows, if fashion trends shift, if private label keeps declining, or if the premium multiple contracts after a 102% rally.
CEO Edward Rosenfeld has a long tenure since 2007, and Q2 2026 showed disciplined execution: strong brand performance, Kurt Geiger store expansion, tariff refunds used to pay down debt, and no surprise spending. Founder Steve Madden remains design chief, and the board kept the quarterly dividend at $0.21.
The footwear and accessories market is mature and competitive, but the company is riding a strong fashion cycle with tailwinds in casual styles, bags, and seasonless product. Growth is driven by brand heat, DTC expansion, and the Kurt Geiger acquisition rather than by an expanding overall market.
At roughly 24x trailing GAAP earnings and 20 to 22x forward earnings, the recovery is largely priced in after a 102% 52-week gain. The balance sheet improvement and raised guidance support the valuation, but a buyer needs confidence in continued margin expansion, tariff management, and consumer resilience.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHOO price | $47.68 close on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and Google Finance quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.49 billion, verified as $47.68 x 73.18 million shares (0.02% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Trailing EPS (GAAP) | $2.00 per share | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $665.9 million, up 19%; adjusted EPS $0.44 versus $0.33 consensus; gross margin 46.5% | Steven Madden Q2 2026 earnings release and call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Revenue up 11% to 13%; adjusted EPS $2.05 to $2.15 (raised from $2.00 to $2.10) | Steven Madden Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue (approximate) | $2.74 billion, up about 18% | StockAnalysis.com financials and Google Finance quarterly sum | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $224.27 million TTM, about $3.06 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $94.7 million cash and $124.8 million debt per company (net debt about $30 million at June 30, 2026); S&P Global reports $377 million total debt including leases | Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $23.63 low to $48.76 high | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | 1.76% yield, $0.21 per quarter ($0.84 annual), next ex-dividend September 11, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 9 analysts, average target $51.00, low $36, high $56 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 23.84x TTM PE, 15.58x P/FCF, 1.76% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA $43.22, 200-day MA $39.92, RSI 65.12, golden cross structure | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This SHOO AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Trailing and forward earnings figures mix GAAP and adjusted measures, and freight, tariff, and consumer data can change the outlook quickly.
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