Sonic Automotive Inc. research snapshot
SAH AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Sonic Automotive as an operationally strong auto retailer that just delivered record Q2 2026 revenue of $3.9 billion, up 8%, with record gross profit of $616.2 million and adjusted EPS of $1.82 that beat the $1.75 consensus. At the August 3, 2026, 3:17 PM EDT reading of $87.78, the market capitalization was about $2.78 billion, verified by financial_rigor.py at a 0.19% deviation. The stock ran from a $54.11 52-week low to a $113.67 high on July 29, 2026, then sold off about 23% in three sessions on elevated volume, closing August 3 at $87.91, so the near-term trend is a pullback toward the 50-day moving average near $88.27. The main question is whether the earnings beat can be sustained while tariffs, affordability pressure, and new-vehicle gross profit compression weigh on the auto cycle. This analysis is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$87.78 at the August 3, 2026, 3:17 PM EDT reading, down 3.80 or 4.15% from the $91.58 July 31 close, within a session range near $87.54 to $92.41 after opening at $90.71
Market cap
$2.78 billion, verified as $87.78 x 31.61 million shares = $2.775 billion within 0.19% via financial_rigor.py
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Operationally strong with cyclical and leverage risks
Trend status
Sharp pullback after a 52-week-high run, price near the 50-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sonic sells new and used vehicles, parts, maintenance, and financing across franchise dealerships, the EchoPark used-car platform, and Powersports. The business generates high revenue with low margins typical of auto retail, and fixed operations plus F&I deliver more than 75% of gross profit. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from OEM franchise agreements, scale in parts and service, geographic diversity across many states, an EchoPark value proposition at less than half new-car prices, and a strong guest experience reputation. Switching costs for service customers are moderate. | Medium |
| Management | David Smith and his team delivered record Q2 2026 revenue and gross profit, raised full-year new-vehicle GPU guidance to $2,850 to $3,000, and are disciplined on EchoPark expansion and capital returns with the $0.41 quarterly dividend. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 8% to $3.9 billion with record gross profit of $616.2 million and adjusted EPS of $1.82 beating the $1.75 consensus. TTM revenue is $15.47 billion with net income of $212 million and EPS of $6.26, but trailing free cash flow is negative. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | SAH trades near 14x trailing earnings, 12.5x forward earnings, 0.18x sales, and a 1.87% dividend yield, below the broader market, with a consensus price target of $98.18 about 12% above the price. The multiple is low, but negative FCF and high leverage reduce the margin of safety. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SAH ran from a $54.11 52-week low to $113.67 on July 29, 2026, then sold off about 23% in three sessions to close at $87.91 on August 3, now below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $99 and $97 and sitting near the 50-day moving average near $88.27. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are tariff-driven affordability pressure, new and used gross profit per unit compression, a downturn in auto sales, used-car price normalization, EchoPark and Powersports execution, high leverage with Debt/EBITDA near 7.2, and negative trailing free cash flow. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the earnings release, and the earnings call. Lower for forward return estimates because cyclical auto demand and leverage make assumptions uncertain. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. The record quarter and raised guidance are real, but the stock pulled back sharply after its run and the auto cycle can change quickly with tariffs, rates, and consumer credit. | Medium-low |
SAH AI stock forecast
The SAH AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $87.78 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $7.03. The framework produced a bearish area near $60 to $75, a base area near $88 to $110 aligned with the $98.18 consensus target, and a bullish area near $115 to $140 before dividends, depending on adjusted EPS growth and exit multiples. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$115 to $140
More likely if Sonic sustains record revenue and gross profit, EchoPark volume keeps outpacing the industry, fixed operations returns to mid-single-digit growth, tariffs ease, and the market re-rates SAH toward the 14x exit multiple implied by top analyst targets near $139.
$88 to $110
More likely if the company delivers the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $7.03, used GPU compresses in the second half as management guided, affordability pressure is managed, and the stock holds near a 12x to 13x forward multiple, roughly the $98.18 consensus target.
$60 to $75
More likely if tariffs and affordability pressure compress new and used GPU further, used-car prices fall and hurt EchoPark, fixed operations growth stalls, the high debt load restricts buybacks, or the multiple contracts toward 9x, near the low analyst targets of $70 to $76.
SAH AI technical analysis
SAH AI technical analysis is based on the August 3, 2026 close of $87.91 and the 3:17 PM EDT reading of $87.78 used for this August 4 static page. The stock ran to a 52-week high of $113.67 on July 29, 2026, then sold off about 23% in three sessions on elevated volume, closing below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $99 and $97 and sitting near the 50-day moving average near $88.27. The 14-day RSI fell to about 46.5 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, neutral after the overbought reading. Traders should confirm live levels before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $87.78 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 3:17 PM EDT reading, down 3.80 or 4.15% from the $91.58 July 31 close, with the session closing at $87.91. |
| Near support | $85.91 to $87.26 | The early July lows near $85.91 to $87.26 form the first support zone under the 50-day moving average near $88.27. |
| Secondary support | $83.05 to $83.73 | The July 1 to July 2 closes form the next support shelf; below that, $80.58 to $80.73 from the June lows is the next reference. |
| 200-day moving average | $71.26 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day trend line near $71.26 on August 3, 2026, well below price and the major long-term support reference. |
| Near resistance | $91.58 | The July 31 close near $91.58 is the first overhead level after the selloff. |
| Secondary resistance | $97 to $100 | The late July consolidation zone near $97 to $100 is the next resistance; a reclaim would signal the pullback may be stabilizing. |
| 52-week high | $113.67 | The July 29, 2026 high is the ceiling; a move back above the mid-$100s would be needed to revive the uptrend. |
| 5-day moving average | $99.44 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, above the current price after the selloff. |
| 20-day moving average | $97.23 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, above the current price. |
| 50-day moving average | $88.27 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $88.27 on August 3, 2026, just above the current price, making it the key near-term pivot. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46.5 | The 14-day RSI was near 46.51 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral after dropping from overbought territory. |
| Volume | About 290,000 average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 289,778 shares on August 3, 2026; the selloff days carried above-average volume, with July 31 near 562,000 and July 30 near 384,000 shares. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.87, elevated around earnings | Beta below 1.0 suggests lower volatility than the market, but SAH still swung about 23% in three sessions after the 52-week-high run, so position sizing should account for sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $83 | A daily close below the $83.05 to $83.73 support shelf would open the path toward $80.58 to $80.73, and a break toward the 200-day near $71.26 would challenge the long-term trend. |
SAH AI trading strategy
The SAH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for SAH to reclaim and hold its 5-day moving average near $99.44 and the $97 to $100 zone with above-average volume before treating the pullback as over and the uptrend as resumed.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $88.27 or a break below $83.05 should trigger a stop and review; do not chase a rebound without volume confirmation.
If SAH stabilizes between $85.91 and $88.27 near the 50-day moving average, compare price behavior with Q3 auto sales, used-car pricing, tariff policy, and EchoPark volume before acting.
Do not average down solely because of the low P/E ratio or the recent record quarter. Define maximum loss per position and check the earnings calendar.
Track Q3 2026 earnings timing, new and used GPU, EchoPark volume and GPU, fixed operations same-store growth, tariff policy, interest rates, inventory levels, used-car prices, and debt ratios.
Reduce confidence if management reports margin compression, negative same-store growth, falling EchoPark volume, or a deteriorating leverage profile, or if the high Debt/EBITDA ratio restricts capital returns.
Investment research summary
Sonic Automotive sells new and used vehicles, parts, maintenance, and financing across franchise dealerships, the EchoPark used-car platform, and Powersports, earning its profits on high-margin fixed operations and F&I that together generate more than 75% of gross profit.
The moat comes from OEM franchise agreements that limit competition within a brand territory, scale in parts purchasing and service operations, geographic diversity, an EchoPark value proposition at less than half new-car prices, and a strong guest experience reputation.
The thesis fails if tariff-driven affordability pressure compresses new and used gross profit per unit, used-car prices fall and hurt EchoPark, fixed operations growth stalls, a downturn cuts auto demand, or the high debt load near $4.67 billion with Debt/EBITDA near 7.2 restricts capital returns.
David Smith, Chairman and CEO, and his team delivered record Q2 2026 revenue and gross profit, raised full-year new-vehicle GPU guidance to $2,850 to $3,000, grew EchoPark retail used volume 17%, expanded Powersports revenue 53%, and kept the quarterly dividend at $0.41. The Smith family has significant ownership alignment with shareholders.
Auto retail is cyclical but consolidating. Record new-car prices near $60,000 to $61,000 and affordability pressure push consumers toward used vehicles, a tailwind for EchoPark as off-lease and BEV supply returns, while tariffs, EV transition, and direct-to-consumer OEM models pose long-term structural questions.
At roughly 14x trailing earnings, 12.5x forward earnings, 0.18x sales, and a 1.87% dividend yield, SAH trades below the broader market, but negative trailing free cash flow and high leverage narrow the margin of safety, and the stock just pulled back about 23% from its 52-week high.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAH price | $87.78 at the August 3, 2026, 3:17 PM EDT reading, down 3.80 or 4.15% from the $91.58 July 31 close, within a session range near $87.54 to $92.41; the session closed at $87.91 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.78 billion, verified as $87.78 x 31.61 million shares = $2.775 billion within 0.19% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and gross profit | Record revenue of $3.9 billion, up 8% year over year, with record gross profit of $616.2 million up 2% | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | GAAP EPS of $1.79 and non-GAAP adjusted EPS of $1.82, beating the $1.75 consensus, with revenue of $3.9 billion versus the $3.78 billion consensus | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly report | July 30, 2026 |
| Franchised dealership segment Q2 2026 | Revenue up 6% to $3.3 billion with same-store revenue up 2%; reported new-vehicle GPU of $3,024 down 11% and same-store new GPU of $2,872 down 16%; reported used GPU of $1,399 down 12% | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Fixed operations Q2 2026 | Record gross profit of $263.8 million up 6% reported and 2% same-store, with customer pay up 1% and warranty up 3% | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| F&I Q2 2026 | Record $147.9 million franchise F&I gross profit up 2% reported; same-store F&I down 1% with F&I per unit down 4% | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| EchoPark Q2 2026 | Revenue up 15% to $582.9 million, segment gross profit up 4% to $64.3 million, retail used volume up 17% to 19,601 units, total GPU of $3,292 down 12%, segment income of $7.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of $13.9 million | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Powersports Q2 2026 | Revenue up 53% to $73.5 million and gross profit up 57% to $19.7 million, both records, with segment income of $2.3 million and adjusted EBITDA up 145% to $4.9 million | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Full-year 2026 guidance | New-vehicle GPU guidance raised to $2,850 to $3,000 per unit from $2,700 to $3,000; used GPU guidance of $1,350 to $1,450; EchoPark GPU target of $3,100 to $3,300 with 12% to 15% used retail unit volume growth; EchoPark adjusted EBITDA guidance of $35 million to $40 million | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.41 per share declared, payable October 15, 2026 with record date September 15, 2026; annual dividend of $1.64 with a 1.87% yield | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com | July 30, 2026 |
| Liquidity and cash | Approximately $676 million of total available liquidity, including about $294 million of cash and floor plan deposits, cited on the Q2 2026 call; StockAnalysis.com statistics reported cash of $294.4 million while the balance sheet page showed $19.2 million of cash and equivalents | Sonic Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis.com | July 30, 2026 |
| Total debt and leverage | Total debt of $4.67 billion with Debt/Equity of 4.56, Debt/EBITDA near 7.2, and net cash of negative $4.38 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue | $15.15 billion, up 6.53% from $14.22 billion, with net income of $118.7 million down 45.05% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $15.47 billion over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, up 5.25% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | Net income of $212.0 million and EPS of $6.26 over TTM, with gross profit of $2.43 billion and operating income of $517.4 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $170.1 million and negative free cash flow of about $30.6 million to $55.2 million over TTM depending on capex treatment; FY2025 free cash flow was $417.5 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 14.03x trailing PE, 12.06x forward PE, 0.18x sales, 2.82x book value, 11.15x EV/EBITDA, 1.87% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $98.18 across 11 analysts, low $70 and high $139, median $98 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix | 4 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell out of 12 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Citi $95 to $115 on August 3, Bank of America $108 to $115 on July 31, Needham $90 to $139 on July 31, Barclays $92 on July 31, UBS $109, JPMorgan $76, Morgan Stanley $72 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Seaport Research downgrade | Seaport Global downgraded SAH to Neutral from Buy on July 17, 2026 citing valuation with shares up 67% year to date | TheFly news via StockAnalysis.com | July 17, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $15.66 billion with adjusted EPS of $7.03; FY2027 revenue of $16.33 billion with adjusted EPS of $7.72 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.18 million shares short, 6.88% of shares outstanding, 18.04% of float, 7.7 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Share statistics | 31.61 million shares outstanding down 3.15% year over year, float of 12.07 million, 21.12% insider ownership, 44.93% institutional ownership | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $54.11 to $113.67, up 26.84% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 0.87 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $99.44 and 20-day near $97.23 computed from StockAnalysis.com daily price history, 50-day near $88.27 and 200-day near $71.26 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 46.51 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
This SAH AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong.
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