RXO, Inc. research snapshot
RXO AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads RXO as a scaled asset-light freight brokerage whose freight-cycle turnaround is being challenged by a new post-Montgomery broker liability overhang. The stock traded at $20.60 on August 3, 2026 at 11:10 AM EDT, up 1.73% from the $20.25 close on July 31, within a $19.94 to $20.83 day range, carrying a market capitalization near $3.40 billion after a selloff that took the shares about 31% below the July 21, 2026 52-week high of $29.90. Q1 2026 revenue was $1.425 billion, flat year over year, with a GAAP net loss of $36 million and adjusted EBITDA of $6 million, while the company guided second-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $27 million to $37 million ahead of the August 6 earnings release. The May 14, 2026 unanimous Supreme Court ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II removed the federal preemption shield that had protected freight brokers from state negligent-hiring claims, and a Dallas County jury award of about $604 million against C.H. Robinson on July 23, 2026 sent brokerage stocks sharply lower, with RXO falling 7.71% on July 24 and TD Cowen downgrading RXO to Sell on July 28 on the tougher liability backdrop. This RXO AI stock analysis uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is for informational purposes, not investment advice.
Current price
$20.60 at the August 3, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT reading, up 1.73% from the $20.25 July 31 close, after opening at $20.00 within a $19.94 to $20.83 day range
Market cap
$3.40 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $20.60 x 164.92 million shares outstanding
AI score
44 / 100
Rating
Oversold freight-cycle turnaround that now carries a post-Montgomery broker liability overhang
Trend status
Short-term downtrend after about a 31% pullback from the July 21, 2026 52-week high of $29.90; the price sits below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages but above the 200-day near $18.20, with RSI in oversold territory
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RXO earns revenue by matching freight shipments with carriers through a digital brokerage platform and by providing managed transportation, last-mile delivery, and freight forwarding. TTM revenue is about $5.73 billion, but Q1 2026 revenue of $1.425 billion was flat year over year with gross margin down to 14.2% and adjusted EBITDA of only $6 million. | Medium |
| Moat | Carrier network scale of roughly 6% North American brokerage market share, the technology platform with AI-powered freight matching, freight data, and last-mile infrastructure support a moderate moat. Shippers face low switching costs, the industry is fragmented, and the post-Montgomery liability environment is raising the cost structure for all brokers. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Drew Wilkerson has emphasized technology, AI-powered freight matching, strict carrier vetting, Coyote Logistics integration, and the senior note refinancing completed in early 2026. The key test is translating revenue scale and the recovering freight cycle into consistent profitability and positive free cash flow. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue of about $5.74 billion grew 26.2% driven by the Coyote acquisition, but FY2025 net income was about -$100 million and TTM net income is around -$105 million to -$113 million with TTM free cash flow of -$15 million. Q1 2026 GAAP net loss was -$36 million, and Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $27 million to $37 million implies a significant sequential improvement. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At the $20.60 August 3 reference, the stock trades at about 0.59x sales, 2.21x to 2.25x book value, and 0.71x enterprise value to sales. Trailing P/E is not meaningful because EPS is negative, and the forward P/E near 129x on the statistics page versus about 295x implied by the $0.07 FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS estimate shows the market is paying for a future profitability path. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The August 3 price of $20.60 sits below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages near $21.30, $25.89, $26.35 to $26.41, and $21.68, and above the 200-day near $18.20 to $18.18. RSI near 26 to 29 is oversold after a 31% drop from the July 21 high of $29.90, and the 14-day ADX near 30 with -DI above +DI confirms a short-term downtrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the post-Montgomery broker liability environment and the risk of additional nuclear verdicts following the July 23, 2026 Dallas County award of about $604 million against C.H. Robinson, negative net income, freight demand softness, a net debt position of about -$678 million against only $21 million of cash, high beta of about 1.92, short interest near 8.97% of shares outstanding, and share dilution from the Coyote stock consideration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Financial facts, market-cap math, balance sheet items, and valuation ratios are well supported by filings and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, and SEC EDGAR XBRL. The timing of profitability, the freight cycle, and the scale of future liability costs remain far less certain than the reported data. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | RXO has revenue scale, a digital platform, and a cheaper valuation after the correction, but negative earnings, a new liability overhang, high volatility, and meaningful short interest mean it is not a high-certainty margin-of-safety setup. | Low |
RXO AI stock forecast
The RXO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $20.60 August 3, 2026 reference, the consensus rating of Hold, the $24.88 average analyst target, and the FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.07 rising to $0.54 in FY2027. Because trailing EPS is negative, the scenario ranges are anchored to revenue and gross-profit progression, analyst target dispersion from $13 to $35, and the path to profitability rather than a trailing earnings multiple. These are conditional valuation outcomes, not price targets.
$26 to $32
More likely if the freight recovery accelerates with rising spot rates and improving gross profit per load, RXO reaches sustained quarterly profitability and positive free cash flow, strict carrier vetting and AI tools drive market share gains as smaller brokers exit under rising liability and insurance costs, and liability exposure stays contained near current levels.
$20 to $25
More likely if the company continues toward breakeven with mid-teens revenue growth, brokerage margins stabilize, managed transportation and last-mile segments recover from the weather-hit first quarter, and the stock trades near the $24.88 analyst average target on current sales and forward earnings estimates.
$12 to $17
More likely if freight demand stays soft, net losses persist or widen, broker liability costs or insurance premiums rise materially after the Montgomery ruling and the C.H. Robinson verdict, debt and limited cash become more binding, or the market compresses the multiple toward the $13 to $19 low analyst targets.
RXO AI technical analysis
RXO AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT snapshot, not a live chart. StockAnalysis.com and Barchart reported a $20.60 reference price, up 1.73% from the $20.25 July 31 close. The stock fell about 31% from the July 21, 2026 52-week high of $29.90 after a Dallas County jury verdict against C.H. Robinson reignited broker liability fears, and it now trades below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages while holding above the 200-day near $18.20, with RSI in oversold territory and 5-year beta near 1.92.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.60 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT reading, up 1.73% from the $20.25 July 31 close within a $19.94 to $20.83 day range; the reported $3.40 billion market cap matches $20.60 x 164.92 million shares outstanding. |
| Near resistance | $21.30 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $21.30 on August 3, 2026; a reclaim of this level with volume would be the first bullish signal after the breakdown. |
| Next resistance | $25.89 to $26.41 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $25.89 and the 50-day near $26.35, with StockAnalysis.com reporting the 50-day near $26.41; this cluster is the main recovery hurdle. |
| Immediate support | $19.94 to $20.25 | The August 3 day range low and the July 31 close form the first support zone below the current price. |
| Key support | $18.20 to $18.18 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $18.20 and StockAnalysis.com near $18.18; a decisive close below this level would turn the long-term trend bearish. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $21.30, 20-day $25.89, 50-day $26.35 to $26.41, 100-day $21.68, 200-day $18.20 to $18.18 | The August 3 price was below every short and medium moving average but above the 200-day, indicating a broken short-term trend within a still-long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 26 to 29, stochastic near 9.7% | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 29.48 and StockAnalysis.com near 26.21, both in oversold territory, with 14-day stochastic near 9.7% deeply oversold; ADX near 30 with -DI above +DI confirms the short-term downtrend. |
| Volume | 20-day average approximately 1.83M to 1.88M shares | The late-July selloff ran on elevated 2.4 million to 3.6 million share days, so a bottoming signal is more credible when volume expands on a reversal rather than a breakdown. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 61%, ATR near $1.62 | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 61.26% and 14-day ATR near $1.62, about 7.8% of price, and the 5-year beta near 1.92, so position risk should account for large two-way moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $18.20 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving average near $18.20 would weaken the long-term uptrend framework; a reclaim of the 20-day near $25.89 would stabilize the short-term trend. |
RXO AI trading strategy
The RXO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines brokerage operating data, freight-cycle indicators, profitability progress, the post-Montgomery liability backdrop, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for RXO to reclaim the 5-day moving average near $21.30 and then the 20-day near $25.89 with expanding volume, while quarterly results show improving gross margin, rising adjusted EBITDA, and positive free cash flow trajectory.
A daily close back below the $19.94 to $20.25 support area should reduce setup confidence, and a decisive close below the 200-day near $18.20 invalidates the long-term trend framework.
If the shares stabilize above the $18.20 to $19.94 support cluster with RSI oversold, compare any bounce with freight spot rates, tender rejections, brokerage gross margin, gross profit per load, and the August 6 earnings release before assuming the decline is an opportunity.
Do not treat a decline as benign if freight demand deteriorates, net losses widen, liability costs or insurance premiums rise, or the market prices in a structurally lower multiple for brokers.
Track quarterly revenue, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, net income, free cash flow, cash, net debt, short interest, freight spot rates and capacity, broker liability litigation and insurance pricing, and the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings release.
Position sizing should reflect that RXO is an unprofitable, high-beta brokerage with a new post-Montgomery liability overhang, short interest near 8.97% of shares outstanding, and a price that is still up about 64% year to date after the correction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay RXO to arrange freight transportation by matching shipments with carriers through a digital brokerage platform, and to coordinate managed transportation, last-mile delivery, and freight forwarding services.
The moat rests on carrier network scale of roughly 6% North American brokerage market share, a technology platform with AI-powered freight matching, freight data, and last-mile infrastructure. It is moderate because shippers face low switching costs and the industry is fragmented, while the post-Montgomery environment is raising liability and insurance costs across the sector.
The thesis fails if freight demand weakens, brokerage margins stay thin, net losses persist or widen, the post-Montgomery liability environment produces additional nuclear verdicts or sharply higher insurance costs, smaller brokers exiting does not translate into market share gains, or the extended valuation multiple compresses further.
Chairman and CEO Drew Wilkerson and the team have emphasized technology, AI-powered freight matching, strict carrier vetting, Coyote Logistics integration, and the early-2026 senior note refinancing. The critical management test is whether RXO can convert the recovering freight cycle into sustained profitability and positive free cash flow.
Brokerage demand tracks freight activity, industrial production, and supply chain complexity. The industry is cyclical, fragmented, and being reshaped by digital platforms, AI, regulatory capacity tightening, and now the post-Montgomery liability regime, which management argues favors large brokers with strict carrier vetting such as RXO.
At about 0.59x sales and negative trailing earnings, the August 3 reference price is cheaper than it was in early July but still depends on a path to profitability. The margin of safety is conditional on freight recovery, sustained margin expansion, and liability costs that remain unquantified.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RXO price | $20.60 at the August 3, 2026, 11:10 AM EDT reading, up 1.73% from the $20.25 July 31 close, within a $19.94 to $20.83 day range, after opening at $20.00 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.40 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $20.60 x 164.92 million shares outstanding, verified at a 0.08% deviation with Pineify financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and ownership | 164.92 million shares outstanding, up 15.48% year over year, with a 125.42 million float, insiders owning 0.78% and institutions 92.07% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/E not meaningful on negative EPS, forward P/E 129.08, P/S 0.59, P/B 2.21, P/OCF 73.35, PEG 1.84, EV/Sales 0.71, EV/EBITDA 90.05 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $1.425 billion, flat year over year and above the roughly $1.35 billion consensus, gross margin of 14.2%, GAAP net loss of -$36 million including $9 million of transaction and restructuring costs and an $11 million debt extinguishment loss, adjusted EBITDA of $6 million, and adjusted diluted loss per share of -$0.09 | RXO Q1 2026 earnings release, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and Q1 2026 earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $27 million to $37 million, above the roughly $24 million consensus, driven by improving truckload mix and gross profit per load | RXO Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | May 7, 2026 |
| Freight market update | First-quarter truckload spot rates rose 16.5% year over year per the RXO Curve report, and on May 19 RXO said May truckload gross profit per load was tracking ahead of typical seasonality | RXO Curve report and RXO brokerage update press releases | May 20, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of about $5.74 billion, up 26.2% from $4.55 billion driven by the Coyote Logistics acquisition, with a FY2025 net loss of about -$100 million; FY2024 net loss was -$290 million including impairments | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL FY2025 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | TTM revenue of about $5.73 billion, gross profit of $913 million, operating income of -$16 million to -$65 million by presentation, and net income of -$105 million to -$113 million with loss per share of -$0.61 to -$0.62 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials pages, cross-validated | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $21 million of cash, $699 million of total debt including $17 million of short-term debt, $430 million of long-term debt, and $182 million of long-term leases, net debt of -$678 million, total assets of $3.27 billion, and shareholders equity of $1.51 billion with book value per share of $9.15, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL cash of $22 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $46 million, capital expenditures of -$61 million, and free cash flow of -$15 million, with no dividend paid | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average price target of $24.88 across 21 analysts, low $13 and high $35, median $26, representing about 20.8% upside to the $20.60 reference price | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell out of 21 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | TD Cowen downgraded RXO to Sell with a $19 target from $24 on July 28, Goldman Sachs held at $20, Truist raised to $30 with a Buy, Citizens JMP initiated at Hold, J.P. Morgan held Sell at $18, Susquehanna raised to $20 with a Negative rating, BMO Capital initiated Outperform at $35, Stifel raised to $30 with a Buy, Citi raised to $30 with a Neutral rating, Stephens resumed Equal Weight at $25, UBS raised to $26, Barclays raised to $28 with an Overweight rating, and BofA raised to $29 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page and analyst news feed | July 28, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $6.35 billion with adjusted EPS of $0.07, FY2027 revenue of $6.90 billion with adjusted EPS of $0.54, 2026 revenue growth forecast average of 10.6% with a 17.0% high and 5.4% low, and 2026 adjusted EPS forecast average of $0.07 with a $0.14 high and $0.02 low | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| 52-week range, beta, and performance | 52-week range of $10.43 to $29.90, 52-week price change of +31.15%, year-to-date change of about +64.2%, and 5-year beta of 1.92 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics, Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 14.80 million shares short, 8.97% of shares outstanding, 11.80% of float, and 8.31 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $21.30, 20-day SMA near $25.89, 50-day SMA near $26.35, 100-day SMA near $21.68, 200-day SMA near $18.20, 14-day RSI near 29.48, 14-day stochastic near 9.7%, 14-day ADX near 30.2, and 14-day historical volatility near 61.3% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II ruling | On May 14, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 9-0 in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC that state negligent-hiring claims against freight brokers are not preempted by the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act, removing the federal preemption defense brokers had used since the 2023 Seventh Circuit Ye v. GlobalTranz decision; the respondent was C.H. Robinson | U.S. Supreme Court opinion and FreightWaves coverage | May 14, 2026 |
| Lipe v. Lupus Superior verdict | On July 23, 2026, a Dallas County, Texas jury awarded approximately $604 million in compensatory damages in a case tied to a 2021 crash, with the award expected to fall mostly on C.H. Robinson, which had hired carrier Lupus Superior for the load; C.H. Robinson said it would appeal, the verdict is subject to post-trial motions, and the carrier had a Satisfactory FMCSA safety rating | FreightWaves coverage of the C.H. Robinson verdict | July 24, 2026 |
| July 2026 sector selloff | RXO fell 7.71% to $25.63 on July 24, 2026 after hitting a 52-week high of $29.90 on July 21; C.H. Robinson fell 9.25% to $186.50 and Landstar fell 3.68% to $200.32 on the day, and trucking stocks fell about 8% in July while remaining up about 28% year to date, with C.H. Robinson shares down about 21% for the month | FreightWaves, Claims Journal, and StockAnalysis.com price history | August 3, 2026 |
| TD Cowen downgrade | TD Cowen downgraded RXO to Sell from Hold on July 28, 2026 with a $19 price target, down from $24, citing the Montgomery decision and the C.H. Robinson verdict as creating a more difficult liability environment for large truckload brokers, viewing RXO as among the most exposed given its long-haul mix and leverage, and saying claims risk warrants a higher risk premium | Investing.com and TheFly coverage of the TD Cowen note | July 28, 2026 |
This RXO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, third-party data, and analyst estimates as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, legal developments, freight-cycle moves, market swings, or macro conditions. Verify current prices, filings, and personal suitability before making any investment decision.
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