Remitly Global, Inc. research snapshot
RELY AI stock analysis reads Remitly Global as a fast-growing, now consistently profitable cross-border remittance platform that pulled back from a new 52-week high of $25.75 to $22.77 at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The reference price is the $22.77 close on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $4.79 billion, mechanically verified as $22.77 times 210.56 million shares outstanding. The company has posted positive GAAP net income in each of the last five quarters, with TTM revenue near $1.73 billion, up about 27% year over year, and TTM net income near $105.6 million. The valuation is demanding on trailing GAAP earnings at about 46x, but far more reasonable on a forward basis at roughly 16x adjusted earnings, and 10 analysts rate the stock Strong Buy with an average target of $29.33. The key near-term event is the Q2 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, and the options market prices implied volatility near 73%. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$22.77
Market cap
$4.79 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Improving profitability at a more reasonable forward valuation
Trend status
Pullback within a strong uptrend after a new 52-week high of $25.75
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Remitly runs a digital-first cross-border remittance platform for immigrants, generating revenue from transaction fees and FX spread, and is expanding into everyday banking with the Global Card launched on July 30, 2026. Revenue is now consistently profitable at the GAAP level for five straight quarters. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulatory licenses across corridors, brand trust in immigrant communities, payment network scale, and compliance infrastructure. Switching costs are moderate, and competition from Wise, PayPal/Xoom, and Western Union is active. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Sebastian Gunningham took over in early 2025 and drove the transition to sustained GAAP profitability, while co-founder and chairman Matt Oppenheimer remains on the board. Management raised FY26 guidance in May and is investing in products like the Global Card. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue near $1.73 billion, up 27.3% year over year, with TTM net income of $105.63 million. Q1 2026 revenue of $452.8 million beat the $438.86 million consensus, and the company has now reported five consecutive quarters of positive GAAP net income. | High |
| Valuation | Trailing GAAP P/E near 46x, forward P/E near 15.9x, P/S near 2.8x, and P/FCF near 15.9x. The forward multiple is far more reasonable than the trailing multiple because consensus expects adjusted EPS of $1.38 in 2026 and $1.65 in 2027. | Medium |
| Technical trend | RELY set a 52-week high of $25.75 on July 16, 2026, then pulled back to $22.77. The stock sits above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day and 20-day averages, with 14-day RSI near 48.6 and 14-day stochastic near 25. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are competition from Wise, PayPal/Xoom, and Western Union, regulatory licensing across corridors, FX volatility, customer acquisition cost inflation, elevated short interest at 7.21% of shares outstanding, and a high expected move around the August 5 earnings report. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, market math, and analyst targets. Lower confidence for the durability of margin expansion, Global Card adoption, and corridor economics. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The business trajectory is positive and the forward valuation is more reasonable, but the near-term earnings event, short interest, and trailing GAAP multiple leave limited room for error. | Medium |
RELY AI stock forecast
The RELY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $22.77 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained revenue growth above 20%, continued margin expansion, and a forward multiple in line with the analyst consensus. The base case assumes growth moderates into the high teens and margins stabilize. The bearish case assumes competition or slower adoption compresses growth and margins.
$30 to $35
More likely if Remitly sustains revenue growth above 20%, widens GAAP margins, the Global Card and business products gain traction, FY27 adjusted EPS reaches or beats the $1.65 consensus, and the market assigns a forward P/E near 18 to 20x, close to the $33 high analyst target and the $29.33 average target.
$24 to $28
More likely if growth moderates to 15 to 20%, margins stabilize, the August 5 Q2 report confirms the $483M to $485M revenue guidance and $86M to $88M adjusted EBITDA guidance, and the stock trades at a forward P/E near 15 to 17x on FY27 adjusted EPS.
$15 to $19
More likely if revenue growth slows below 10%, competition from Wise or PayPal intensifies, regulatory delays limit corridor expansion, customer acquisition costs rise, margins compress, or the market re-rates the stock toward 10x forward earnings, which is the area of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
RELY AI technical analysis
RELY AI technical analysis starts from the $22.77 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 3, 2026 static page. The stock reached a 52-week high of $25.75 on July 16, 2026 and has pulled back roughly 12% since, now trading below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages but above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. 14-day RSI near 48.58 and 14-day stochastic near 25 suggest momentum cooled to a neutral-to-oversold state, while implied volatility near 73% reflects the expected move around the August 5 earnings report. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.77 | Reference close used for this static analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, from StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance. |
| Near support | $21.79 to $22.00 | The 50-day moving average near $21.79 forms the first support. A dip to this zone after the July pullback would be a normal retest of the uptrend. |
| Secondary support | $20.00 to $20.42 | The 100-day moving average near $20.42 and the round $20 level form the next support cluster. A sustained break below would signal a deeper correction. |
| 200-day moving average | $17.40 | The 200-day moving average near $17.40 is well below price and represents the long-term trend floor established by the rally. |
| Near resistance | $23.60 to $24.00 | The 20-day moving average near $23.60 and the round $24 area form the first overhead resistance that the pullback must reclaim. |
| Key resistance | $25.75 | The 52-week high of $25.75 set on July 16, 2026 is the key resistance. A clean break above with volume would confirm trend continuation. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48.6, stochastic near 25 | 14-day RSI near 48.58 is neutral after the pullback, while 14-day stochastic near 25 is approaching oversold. ADX near 20 suggests the trend is not strongly directional right now. |
| Volume | About 2.7M shares (avg ~2.5M) | July 31 volume near 2.69 million shares was close to the 20-day average near 2.54 to 2.57 million, showing the pullback has not yet attracted heavy distribution. |
| Volatility | Implied volatility near 73% | Barchart reported implied volatility near 73.05% with IV rank near 72% and IV percentile near 89%, a high expected move driven by the August 5 earnings report. Position sizing should account for sharp swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $21.79, then $20.42 | A sustained close below the 50-day moving average near $21.79 would weaken the near-term uptrend. A break below the 100-day near $20.42 would challenge the longer-term bullish structure. |
RELY AI trading strategy
The RELY AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, with the August 5 earnings report as the dominant near-term event.
Look for RELY to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $23.60 and then break above the $25.75 high with volume confirmation before treating the trend as extended. Confirm the Q2 2026 report on August 5 does not break the margin or growth trajectory.
A failed reclaim of $23.60, a close back below the 50-day near $21.79, or a post-earnings gap that violates support should reduce confidence. Earnings event risk is significant.
If RELY holds the $21.79 to $22.00 support zone without a fundamental thesis break, evaluate an entry based on the Q2 report, corridor additions, active customer trends, and customer acquisition cost data from the filing.
Do not buy into the pullback before earnings. The implied volatility near 73% means a single report can move the stock several dollars in either direction.
Track Q2 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA against the $483M to $485M and $86M to $88M guidance, FY26 guidance, active customer metrics, take rate trends, Global Card adoption, corridor expansion including the UAE license, and competitive moves from Wise, PayPal/Xoom, and Western Union.
Lower the rating if revenue growth falls below 15%, margins contract, or customer acquisition costs spike while the stock still trades above 40x trailing GAAP earnings.
Investment research summary
Immigrants pay Remitly to send money across borders faster and cheaper than traditional wire services, through a digital-first platform that now extends into everyday banking with the Global Card.
The moat comes from regulatory licenses across corridors, localized brand trust in immigrant communities, payment infrastructure and compliance systems, and money-transfer network scale. Switching costs are real but not locked in through contracts or hardware.
The thesis can fail if Wise extends its lead, PayPal/Xoom bundles remittances into broader platform usage, regulatory approvals stall corridor expansion, customer acquisition costs rise faster than lifetime value, or the company fails to convert its recent profitability into durable margins.
CEO Sebastian Gunningham took over in early 2025 and led the transition to five consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. Co-founder and chairman Matt Oppenheimer remains engaged, and management raised FY26 guidance in May while investing in the Global Card.
Cross-border remittances are a $800B+ annual flow steadily shifting from incumbent money-transfer operators to digital platforms. The trend favors Remitly, and the company joined the S&P SmallCap 600 in May 2026, but competitive intensity from Wise and others remains high.
At roughly 46x trailing GAAP earnings, 2.8x revenue, and 15.9x forward earnings, the market is paying a premium that is justified only if adjusted EPS grows from $1.05 in 2025 to $1.38 in 2026 and $1.65 in 2027. The forward multiple near 16x is a better starting point than earlier in the year, but a margin of safety still requires proof that the profitability inflection can compound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RELY price | $22.77 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.79 billion, verified as $22.77 x 210.56M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $12.08 low to $25.75 high, with the high set on July 16, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com price history | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.73 billion, up 27.27% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $105.63 million, TTM EPS $0.49 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $452.8 million, up 25.21% year over year, above the $438.86M consensus | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | $49.05 million, EPS $0.23, the fifth consecutive profitable quarter | StockAnalysis.com income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $649.06 million, total debt $39.30 million, net cash $609.76 million | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | About $301 million per S&P Global statistics; the Fiscal.ai financials page shows about $253 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 46.47, forward PE 15.90, PS 2.78, PB 5.28, P/FCF 15.91, PEG 0.25, EV/EBITDA 23.99 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | Market cap deviation of 0.09% and ratios recomputed with financial_rigor.py: PE 46.47, PB 5.28, P/FCF 15.92, PS 2.77 | financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average target of $29.33, low $27, high $33, across 10 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 and FY26 guidance | Q2 revenue $483M-$485M with adjusted EBITDA $86M-$88M; FY26 revenue $1.96B-$1.975B with adjusted EBITDA $370M-$385M | TheFly summary of the May 6, 2026 Q1 report | August 3, 2026 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 membership | Added to the S&P SmallCap 600 effective May 14, 2026, replacing Apellis | PRNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 15.19 million shares short, 7.21% of shares outstanding, 8.18% of float, 3.75 days to cover, down from 16.11 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $23.10, 20-day SMA near $23.60, 50-day SMA near $21.79, 100-day SMA near $20.42, 200-day SMA near $17.40, 14-day RSI near 48.58, 14-day ADX near 20.43, 14-day historical volatility near 39.69% | Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Options and volatility | Implied volatility near 73.05%, IV rank near 71.91%, IV percentile near 89%, ahead of the August 5 earnings report | Barchart expected move | August 3, 2026 |
| Global Card launch | Remitly launched the Global Card on July 30, 2026 | GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
This RELY AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026, and can be wrong. The stock reports Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, and the options market prices a large expected move around the report.
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