Roblox Corporation research snapshot
RBLX AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Roblox as a large and still growing user-generated entertainment platform that has entered a monetization reset. The stock closed at $35.60 on July 31, 2026, down 26.85% in its worst one-day decline on record, after the July 30, 2026 Q2 report showed bookings growth slowing to 8% and management guiding Q3 bookings to decline 14% to 18% year over year while withdrawing full-year guidance. The drop was driven by weaker monetization per hour, concentrated in the under-13 cohort, as Roblox shifted its discovery algorithm toward measured long-term retention and away from high-monetizing viral games, and by the decision to disable cross-experience game passes. Revenue still grew 36% in Q2 to $1.5 billion, DAUs rose 10% to 123 million, hours rose 5% to 29 billion, and free cash flow rose 66% to $294 million, with strong international growth in Japan and India and Russia back online. The market cap is about $25.43 billion, verified as $35.60 times 714.38 million shares with a 0.01% deviation. Multiple analysts cut targets, with BTIG and Benchmark moving to Sell at $30 and $33, while the consensus stays Buy with an average target near $56.06. This page gives a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$35.60
Market cap
$25.43 billion
AI score
42 / 100
Rating
Strong platform under a sharp bookings reset with limited near-term visibility
Trend status
Bearish after a record one-day drop, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Roblox runs a two-sided platform where users spend time and money in user-created experiences while creators build them with Roblox Studio, with distribution, payments, cloud infrastructure, and a virtual economy supplied by the company. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on a large social graph, creator tools, virtual-currency liquidity, discovery data, brand familiarity, and accumulated developer content. It remains meaningful, but engagement mix shifts and competing social, gaming, and creator platforms can redistribute attention. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder CEO David Baszucki has made a deliberate, transparent choice to age-check users and optimize discovery for long-term retention, accepting near-term monetization damage. The management question is whether that trade pays off and whether AI investments in Build, Roblox Reality, and Moments produce durable engagement gains. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 36% to $4.89 billion and TTM revenue reached $5.69 billion, while Q2 2026 bookings grew only 8% and Q3 bookings are guided to fall 14% to 18% year over year. TTM net loss is about $1.00 billion, and TTM free cash flow is $1.64 billion, partly supported by deferred-revenue dynamics. | High |
| Valuation | At $35.60, financial_rigor.py calculates about 15.48x TTM free cash flow, 4.47x sales, and 169.52x book value. PE is not meaningful because TTM EPS is negative, so valuation depends on whether bookings stabilize and cash flow holds up rather than on an earnings multiple. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $35.60 was below the reported 50-day average near $48.98 and far below the 200-day average near $69.88, with 14-day RSI near 26.64 and an oversold but intact downtrend after the 26.85% one-day loss. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because bookings are contracting, full-year guidance was withdrawn, monetization is shifting under algorithm changes, age-check and safety compliance add cost and friction, advertising and subscription monetization are unproven at scale, competition for attention is intense, and the stock remains volatile with a beta near 1.46. | High |
| AI confidence | Public disclosures make the descriptive analysis well supported, but AI cannot determine when monetization per hour stabilizes, whether retention gains offset the bookings hit, or how the market reprices the stock. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The platform case remains credible, but the current price requires bookings to stabilize and cash flow to persist. This page is a research framework, not a personal buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
RBLX AI stock forecast
The RBLX AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a point target. The three-year model below uses $2.30 TTM free cash flow per share as a cash-generation proxy because GAAP EPS is negative. It is not a promise and should not be treated as a PE valuation of current earnings, and it assumes the deferred-revenue supported cash flow holds up as bookings stabilize.
$75 to $105
More likely if the retention-first discovery changes restore bookings growth, monetization per hour stabilizes and then rises as age-check data improves recommendations, advertising and subscriptions scale, Build and Moments expand engagement, and free cash flow per share compounds near the model 20% rate. The model bull output is about $99.
$40 to $55
More likely if bookings decline through Q3 and then stabilize at mid-single-digit growth, monetization pressure fades gradually, DAUs keep growing with international gains, and investors hold the stock near the current 12x to 16x free-cash-flow area. The model midpoint is about $52 using 8% annual cash-flow growth and an 18x proxy multiple.
$22 to $32
More likely if the monetization reset runs longer than one quarter, bookings keep declining into 2027, margin deleveraging plus AI infrastructure costs compress cash flow, or investors assign a lower multiple because visibility stays low. The model bear output is about $28, consistent with Sell targets near $30 and $33.
RBLX AI technical analysis
RBLX AI technical analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff is bearish. The July 31, 2026 close of $35.60 followed a record 26.85% one-day drop on 63.1 million shares versus a 20-day average near 10.2 million. Price sits below the 50-day average near $48.98 and the 200-day average near $69.88, with 14-day RSI near 26.64 in oversold territory. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data, so confirm every level and average in a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.60 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 714.38 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $33.88 | The July 31, 2026 intraday low and the current 52-week low. A close below this level would extend the breakdown. |
| Deeper support | $30 to $32 | The round-number and Sell-target zone, with BTIG at $30 and Benchmark at $33, as reported around the August 2 cutoff. |
| Near resistance | $40 | The July 31, 2026 intraday high and a natural retest zone. A reclaim would be the first sign of stabilization. |
| 50-day moving average | $48.98 | StockAnalysis.com statistics placed the 50-day average near $48.98, well above the current price after the drop. |
| 200-day moving average | $69.88 | The reported 200-day average near $69.88 remains far above price, so the longer-term downtrend is not repaired. |
| Momentum | RSI near 26.64 | Oversold but with a negative trend bias. Oversold alone does not confirm a bottom; look for price stabilization and rising volume on recovery attempts. |
| Volume | 63.1 million shares on July 31 | Roughly six times the 20-day average near 10.2 million shares, confirming heavy distribution on the earnings drop. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $33.88 to $150.59 | The 71.51% 52-week decline and 1.46 beta call for small position sizes and strict risk limits; 14-day historical volatility is very elevated after the crash. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33.88 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would invalidate a stabilization thesis and open the $30 to $32 zone. |
RBLX AI trading strategy
The RBLX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It pairs price confirmation with bookings, DAUs, hours, monetization per hour, free cash flow, age-check and safety updates, discovery changes, and share-count trends.
Wait for RBLX to stabilize above the $33.88 low and reclaim the $40 area on above-average volume, then confirm the live 50-day average stops falling and that the next earnings report shows bookings sequential stabilization and improving monetization per hour.
Define risk before entry. A decisive close below $33.88 can be used as a rules-based invalidation, since it would point to a deeper leg toward the $30 to $32 zone.
If RBLX trades into the $30 to $33 zone without a bookings or cash-flow break, watch for oversold stabilization and compare the price reaction with Q3 bookings, DAU growth, age-check penetration, and discovery performance.
Do not average down merely because the price fell. The setup breaks if support fails alongside worsening bookings, monetization per hour, cash flow, or adverse safety and regulatory news.
Track revenue, bookings, bookings per hour, DAUs, hours engaged, age-check penetration, cross-experience game pass policy, developer exchange fees, infrastructure and trust and safety costs, operating cash flow, free cash flow, stock-based compensation, cash, debt, and diluted shares.
Refresh the scenario after earnings, guidance updates, discovery or safety policy changes, and material creator-economy and AI investment news. Avoid acting on stale levels after a high-volatility event.
Investment research summary
Roblox sells access to a social entertainment and creation platform. Users pay for Robux and subscriptions, while creators receive tools, distribution, cloud services, and a route to earn from experiences and virtual goods.
Roblox benefits from a two-sided network: more creators bring more experiences, which attract more users and spending. Its Studio tooling, virtual economy, content library, discovery data, and social connections make the platform harder to replicate than a single game.
The thesis fails if the discovery and age-check changes permanently lower monetization per hour, bookings keep declining, users or creators migrate to other platforms, AI and infrastructure costs outrun growth, stock compensation continues to dilute owners, or safety regulation compresses the economics.
Founder leadership provides continuity of product vision and made a transparent decision to trade near-term monetization for measured long-term retention. The key test is whether monetization per hour recovers as age-check data improves targeting and whether Build, Roblox Reality, and Moments create durable engagement.
Interactive entertainment is moving toward creator-led, socially discovered experiences that blend games, communication, and virtual goods. Roblox sits inside that trend, but attention is contestable, and platform changes plus youth-focused regulation can reshape the economics quarter to quarter.
At a verified market capitalization near $25.43 billion, the share price now embeds a lower growth path. Free cash flow of $1.64 billion TTM and a net cash position help, but GAAP losses, deferred-revenue dynamics, and a booking contraction mean the margin of safety depends on monetization stabilizing, not just on current scale.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBLX price | $35.60 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 26.85% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $25.43 billion, computed as $35.60 x 714.38 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue of $1.5 billion up 36%, bookings of $1.6 billion up 8%, DAUs of 123 million up 10%, hours of 29 billion up 5% | Roblox Q2 2026 shareholder letter and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of $318 million up 60% and free cash flow of $294 million up 66% year over year | Roblox Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 bookings guidance | Bookings of $1.58 billion to $1.65 billion, a year-over-year decline of 14% to 18%, with no revised full-year guidance provided | Roblox Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Monetization shortfall | Bookings per hour below forecast, concentrated in the under-13 cohort, driven by a shift from 2025 viral games to lower-monetizing evergreen content, discovery changes that favor long-term retention, and the disabled cross-experience game pass sales | Roblox Q2 2026 shareholder letter and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Age check progress | Age check penetration at 57% globally, with Australia approaching 80% and the U.S. and U.K. at 70%; Roblox Kids and Roblox Select rolled out in June 2026 | Roblox Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| International growth | Japan DAUs up 67% and India DAUs up 64%, with hours up 61% in Japan and 59% in India, and Russia back online late in the quarter | Roblox Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Content diversification | The top 10 games now account for about 20% of hours engaged, down from about 30% three years ago | Roblox Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.891 billion, up 36% from $3.602 billion, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and the FY2025 10-K with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and Roblox 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $1.065 billion consolidated GAAP net loss for fiscal 2025 | StockAnalysis.com financials and Roblox 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net loss | $5.686 billion revenue and $1.001 billion net loss through June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financial statements | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $1.644 billion, or about $2.30 per share, with $2.100 billion operating cash flow and $455.98 million in capital expenditures | StockAnalysis.com cash-flow statement and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $1.796 billion, including a $1.935 billion deferred-revenue increase | Roblox 2025 Form 10-K cash-flow discussion | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $991 million as of June 30, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filed July 30, 2026 | Roblox Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash plus short-term and long-term investments | $3.014 billion in cash and short-term investments, with $3.070 billion in long-term investments, as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $1.009 billion as of June 30, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Roblox Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Total debt and net cash | Total debt of about $1.678 billion including long-term leases, and net cash of about $1.336 billion, or $1.89 per share, as of June 30, 2026; the statistics page reports $1.84 billion total debt and $1.18 billion net cash under a different debt classification | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Book value | Total shareholders equity of $129 million, or about $0.21 per share, as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 4.47x sales, 15.47x free cash flow, 167.29x book value, PE not meaningful, EV/FCF of 14.75 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $56.06 across 34 analysts, low $30 and high $105, median $50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 15 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell, 2 Strong Sell out of 34 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | Macquarie downgraded to Hold at $37 from $80, Wedbush downgraded to Hold at $40 from $65, BTIG downgraded to Sell at $30, Benchmark downgraded to Sell at $33, Morgan Stanley cut to $55 from $62, Goldman Sachs cut to $60 from $65, Needham cut to $50 from $60, Barclays cut to $47 from $60, Piper Sandler cut to $47 from $50, D.A. Davidson cut to $40 from $45 | StockAnalysis.com analyst ratings and TipRanks | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 29.32 million shares short, 4.10% of shares outstanding, 2.77 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Revenue forecast | FY2026 revenue estimate of $7.48 billion and FY2027 revenue of $8.95 billion, with FY2026 and FY2027 EPS estimates of negative $1.43 and negative $1.27 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average near $48.98, 200-day average near $69.88, 14-day RSI near 26.64, 20-day average volume near 10.23 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
This RBLX AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available data through August 2, 2026, can be incomplete, and can be wrong if market prices, filings, bookings, monetization, discovery changes, safety developments, regulation, company events, or macro conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
