Ferrari N.V. research snapshot
RACE AI stock analysis reads Ferrari as a scarce luxury brand whose Q2 2026 results beat expectations and prompted a guidance raise, driven by personalization demand and a full order book through 2027. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, RACE closed at $393.87 on July 31, with reported market capitalization near $75.30 billion and a trailing PE near 40x. The RACE AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a price promise, and this page is for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$393.87 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$75.30 billion reported market capitalization
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
Exceptional brand and margins, premium valuation
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the Q2 2026 beat, still below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ferrari monetizes scarcity through high-performance sports cars, personalization, after-sales, racing, licensing, and lifestyle activities, with an order book that covers 2027. | High |
| Moat | Heritage, brand desire, controlled supply, collector community, racing credibility, and dealer relationships are difficult to replicate and remain intact. | High |
| Management | CEO Benedetto Vigna kept volume discipline and mix discipline while launching the Luce EV and the 12Cilindri Manuale, and management raised 2026 guidance on Q2 strength. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY 2025 revenue rose 7% to EUR 7.146 billion; Q2 2026 revenue rose 8% to EUR 1.938 billion and net profit rose 9% to EUR 463 million. | High |
| Valuation | RACE traded near 40x trailing earnings and 34x trailing free cash flow on the August 2026 dataset, so the price already prices in continued premium growth. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 dataset placed price above the 50-day average of $363.74 and the 200-day average of $363.50, with RSI near 61. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are luxury-demand cyclicality, model transitions, electric-vehicle execution and sentiment, tariffs, currency, supply disruption, and valuation compression. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported-company and valuation inputs are well documented; short-term price direction is inherently less certain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because business quality and near-term momentum are high but the market already assigns a substantial premium to the franchise. | Medium |
RACE AI stock forecast
The RACE AI stock forecast uses three scenarios around the $393.87 July 31 close, using a three-year horizon and the trailing EPS base of $10.54. The upside case needs sustained mix and personalization gains, clean execution of the Luce and new models, and a continued luxury multiple. The base case assumes steady execution with some multiple normalization toward 30x earnings. The downside case reflects weaker luxury demand, softer personalization, EV adoption problems, or a rerating toward a more conventional consumer discretionary valuation.
$500 to $555 over 3 years
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 10%, the order book converts cleanly, the Luce and the 12Cilindri Manuale strengthen mix without diluting exclusivity, and the market sustains a mid-to-high 30s earnings multiple.
$370 to $415 over 3 years
More likely if adjusted EPS grows near 7%, the raised 2026 guidance is met, personalization and racing remain supportive, and valuation settles near 30x earnings.
$205 to $250 over 3 years
More likely if luxury spending weakens, deliveries or mix disappoint during the model transition, Luce demand fades after the launch wave, tariffs or currency hurt results, or the multiple falls toward 20x.
RACE AI technical analysis
RACE AI technical analysis uses StockAnalysis data available July 31, 2026. The July 31 close was $393.87, above the reported 50-day moving average of $363.74 and the 200-day moving average of $363.50. RSI was 60.92, indicating positive but not overbought momentum. Price sits about 22% below the 52-week high of $504.49. These references are time-sensitive and should be refreshed before any trading decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $393.87 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported the close for the final July session. |
| Near support | $385 to $390 | The July 28 to July 30 closes clustered near $385.69 to $390.14 and mark the first retest zone below current price. |
| Moving-average support | $363.50 to $363.74 | The 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged in this zone, making it a key trend checkpoint. |
| Deeper support | $344 to $352 | The early-June 2026 lows near $344 to $352 represent the next reference if the moving-average zone fails. |
| Near resistance | $398 to $403 | The July 30 close was $397.73 and the session high reached $403.00, so this band is the immediate overhead zone. |
| Major resistance | $504.49 | This is the 52-week high and a distant overhead target that requires a sustained re-rating to approach. |
| 50-day moving average | $363.74 | Holding above it supports the intermediate recovery trend on this dataset. |
| 200-day moving average | $363.50 | A sustained close below it would weaken the long-term technical setup. |
| Momentum | Positive but not overbought | RSI was 60.92 on the July 31 StockAnalysis statistics page. |
| Volume and volatility | 20-day average volume 447,377; beta 0.59 | Volume rose to about 1.05 million shares on July 30 around the earnings release, and the stock has lower volatility than the broad market. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $363 | A break below both moving-average references would invalidate the current recovery framework. |
RACE AI trading strategy
The RACE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a premium-priced luxury equity. It is not personalized advice. Verify fresh prices, earnings dates, position sizing, and risk tolerance before acting.
Look for RACE to hold above the $385 to $390 support zone and clear the $398 to $403 resistance band with improving volume, with the July 30 guidance raise as the fundamental catalyst.
Invalidate the setup on a sustained close below $363 or if delivery, mix, personalization, or cash-flow commentary weakens the premium-brand thesis.
If price retraces toward the $363 to $374 moving-average band without new company-specific deterioration, compare RSI, volume, luxury demand indicators, and peer action before assuming support holds.
Do not treat the brand as automatic downside protection. A premium multiple can contract even if reported results remain sound.
Track deliveries, personalization, order-book visibility, operating margin, industrial FCF, Luce and 12Cilindri Manuale ramp, electrification spending, buybacks, tariffs, foreign exchange, and Formula 1 or lifestyle revenue.
Reduce confidence if the order book is strong but conversion, margins, or industrial FCF lag the raised management guidance.
Investment research summary
Ferrari sells a scarce luxury experience, not simply transportation. Customers pay for performance, design, heritage, personalization, access, and the perceived long-term value of owning a Ferrari.
The moat rests on brand equity, racing heritage, controlled supply, collector demand, product design and engineering, a selective dealer network, and years of earned social proof. Network effects are indirect, but the owner and enthusiast ecosystem reinforces desirability.
The thesis can fail if Ferrari expands volume too far, mishandles the electric transition or the Luce launch, loses product appeal, faces a sharp luxury downturn, experiences tariff or supply disruption, or sees its premium valuation normalize faster than earnings grow.
Benedetto Vigna has overseen a controlled-volume model with emphasis on mix, personalization, technology, and long-term brand investment. The test is whether capital spending and new-model launches protect scarcity rather than merely pursue growth.
Global luxury spending, personalization, experiences, motorsport media, and selective electrification are long-duration tailwinds. Ferrari remains exposed to consumer confidence, global trade rules, and a changing technology stack.
At roughly 40x trailing earnings and 36x forward earnings on the August 2026 dataset, the market prices Ferrari as a premium luxury compounder. The base scenario is near the current price, so the margin of safety improves only with a lower entry price or stronger earnings evidence.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RACE closing price | $393.87 at close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote and history page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | Reported market cap $75.30 billion; verified as $393.87 x 192.48 million total share class = $75.81 billion (0.68% deviation); common shares outstanding 175.92 million | StockAnalysis statistics page and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| FY 2025 revenue and net profit | EUR 7.146 billion revenue and EUR 1.600 billion net profit | Ferrari FY 2025 release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY 2025 mix and cash flow | Cars and spare parts EUR 6.005 billion; sponsorship, commercial and brand EUR 819.55 million; other EUR 320.97 million; industrial FCF EUR 1.54 billion | Ferrari FY 2025 release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 performance | EUR 1.938 billion revenue up 8%, EBIT EUR 605 million at 31.2% margin, net profit EUR 463 million up 9%, diluted EPS EUR 2.62, and EUR 276 million industrial FCF up 39% | Ferrari Q2 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| H1 2026 performance | EUR 3.786 billion revenue up 6%, EBIT EUR 1.153 billion at 30.5% margin, net profit EUR 876 million up 5%, diluted EPS EUR 4.95, and EUR 929 million industrial FCF up 14% | Ferrari Q2 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 shipments and balance sheet | 3,366 total shipments in Q2 (down 128 year over year); cash and equivalents EUR 1.486 billion, total debt EUR 3.166 billion, net industrial debt EUR 131 million at June 30, 2026 | Ferrari Q2 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical references | 40.29x trailing PE, 35.93x forward PE, 34.17x P/FCF, 50-day average $363.74, 200-day average $363.50, RSI 60.92 | StockAnalysis statistics page and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raised on July 30, 2026 | Net revenues about EUR 7.60 billion, adjusted EBITDA at least EUR 2.97 billion at 39.0% margin, adjusted EBIT at least EUR 2.26 billion at 29.5% margin, adjusted diluted EPS at least EUR 9.68, and industrial FCF at least EUR 1.55 billion | Ferrari Q2 2026 results press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 14 analysts with an average price target of $452.63, a low target of $398.28 and a high target of $530.68 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
This RACE AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, policy, currency, or market sentiment change.
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