Helmerich & Payne, Inc. research snapshot
HP AI stock analysis currently reads Helmerich & Payne, Inc. as the largest US onshore drilling solutions provider, with a leading super-spec rig fleet, tight industry supply, and an improving North America outlook offset by a loss-making trailing twelve months and elevated balance sheet leverage. The analysis is scenario-based, not a certain price prediction. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the latest reference price used here was $33.80 on August 3, 2026, market capitalization was about $3.38 billion against roughly 99.93 million shares, and the main debate was whether a multi-year oilfield services upcycle can restore earnings and free cash flow fast enough to justify a stock that has already risen about 115% in the last 52 weeks. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$33.80
Market cap
About $3.38 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Largest US onshore drilling contractor with tight super-spec rig supply, but a loss-making TTM and elevated leverage
Trend status
Above the 200-day moving average, below the 50-day moving average, and trading in the middle of its 52-week range after a large 52-week run
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | HP sells drilling rigs, crews, and technology-driven drilling solutions to oil and gas exploration and production companies, mainly through North America Solutions, International Solutions, and Offshore Solutions. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from unmatched super-spec rig scale in the Lower 48, technology such as FlexRobotics and AutoSlide, brand and safety records, customer relationships, and the highest-efficiency rig reactivation capacity in the industry. | Medium-high |
| Management | Trey Adams leads a management team focused on deleveraging after the KCA Deutag acquisition, enterprise cost optimization, technology deployment, and dividend commitment. A CFO transition to Todd Scruggs is underway as Kevin Vann retires. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $4.00 billion, TTM net income was about -$376.94 million, and HP generated about $255.99 million of TTM free cash flow. Revenue has grown strongly since the KCA Deutag deal, but earnings are negative on impairment and acquisition-related items. | High |
| Valuation | Tool-checked valuation was about 13.2x TTM free cash flow, 0.84x TTM sales, 1.37x book value, and a 2.96% dividend yield. Forward P/E was about 31.9x, reflecting a consensus earnings rebound into fiscal 2027. | Medium |
| Technical trend | HP closed near $33.80, above its 200-day moving average near $33.19 and below its 50-day moving average near $35.48, with RSI near 47.5 and a 52-week range of $15.17 to $41.82. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are oil price and rig demand cyclicality, elevated leverage near 3.97x debt to EBITDA, Middle East operating disruptions, supply chain cost inflation, customer capital spending cuts, and key-person or integration risk around the CFO transition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive research and source-backed numbers. Lower confidence for future returns because drilling activity, oil prices, Middle East stability, and market sentiment are difficult to predict. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The business holds a strong competitive position and demand is improving, but the equity case depends on restoring earnings while carrying roughly $1.8 billion of net debt in a cyclical market. | Medium-low |
HP AI stock forecast
The HP AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $33.80 cutoff price and the fiscal 2027 consensus adjusted EPS near $1.40. financial_rigor.py produced a bullish three-year value near $49, a base case near $28, and a bearish case near $15 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets.
$45 to $52
More likely if the oil and gas supply shock keeps Lower 48 activity rising, HP reactivates idle super-spec rigs at maintenance cost, FlexRobotics adoption broadens, international and offshore contracts renew on better terms, leverage falls toward 1x, and the market holds a mid-teens multiple on recovered earnings.
$25 to $30
More likely if EPS recovers along the consensus path toward roughly $1.40 in fiscal 2027, rig count grows modestly, Middle East disruptions remain contained, and investors keep HP near a low-teens forward earnings multiple while deleveraging proceeds.
$13 to $17
More likely if oil prices fall, operators cut drilling budgets, Middle East conflicts widen or rig suspensions extend, reactivation and supply chain costs pressure margins, free cash flow stays weak, or the market reprices HP at a single-digit multiple on reduced earnings.
HP AI technical analysis
HP AI technical analysis starts from the $33.80 reference price used for this August 4 static page. StockAnalysis showed a 52-week range of $15.17 to $41.82, a 50-day moving average near $35.48, a 200-day moving average near $33.19, and RSI near 47.5. The stock is above the 200-day average but below the 50-day average, so the medium-term trend is positive while the short-term setup is mixed after the large 52-week run. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $33.80 | StockAnalysis showed the August 3, 2026 intraday reference and a $34.57 prior close, which is the latest reference used for this static page. |
| Near support | $33.00 to $33.40 | This zone brackets the 200-day moving average near $33.19 and the recent trading lows. A break below this area would weaken the medium-term uptrend. |
| Secondary support | $30.50 to $31.00 | The early July reaction low near $30.53 is a key risk-management level if the stock loses momentum toward the lower end of its recent range. |
| Near resistance | $35.30 to $35.50 | The 50-day moving average near $35.48 and the late July highs near $35.34 mark the first meaningful overhead zone. |
| Upper resistance | $39.00 to $40.30 | The June rebound area and the stock run from mid-June toward $39 to $40 is a stronger resistance zone before the 52-week high. |
| 52-week range | $15.17 to $41.82 | StockAnalysis showed the full 52-week range, indicating HP trades near the middle of its yearly band after a roughly 115% gain over the period. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 963,461 shares | Average volume is modest for a company of this size, so volume confirmation around earnings, rig count news, and oil price moves should be watched. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.60 | StockAnalysis beta over 5 years shows below-market volatility, which is common for a stock that already repriced sharply higher in the past year. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33.00, then below $30.50 | A close below the 200-day moving average area weakens the setup. A break below $30.50 would point to a deeper correction toward the $29 to $30 zone. |
HP AI trading strategy
The HP AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, valuation discipline, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for HP to reclaim and hold above the $35.30 to $35.50 resistance zone with improving volume, rising rig count data, and stable oil prices before treating the multi-year uptrend as confirmed again.
A failed reclaim or a close back below the 200-day moving average near $33.19 should reduce trend confidence, especially if oil prices or rig count data weaken.
If HP pulls back toward the $30.50 to $31.00 zone without an earnings reset, compare the lower price with free cash flow, the dividend, deleveraging progress, and management commentary on fiscal 2027 activity.
Do not treat the pullback as a buy if free cash flow stays weak, leverage stays near 4x debt to EBITDA, Middle East disruptions widen, or oil prices break down.
Track quarterly revenue by segment, North America rig count and direct margin, international direct margin, offshore contracts, free cash flow, cash taxes, debt reduction toward the $350 million note due at end of 2027, and FlexRobotics deployment.
Position sizing should reflect that HP can look inexpensive on a recovered-earnings basis while still carrying a TTM loss, roughly $1.8 billion of net debt, and full exposure to drilling cycle and oil price risk.
Investment research summary
Customers pay HP for drilling rigs, crews, and technology that drill oil and gas wells faster, more consistently, and with better wellbore quality. The business converts oil and gas drilling demand into day-rate and performance-based revenue across land, international, and offshore markets.
The moat rests on the largest super-spec rig fleet in the Lower 48, market share above 30% of the active super-spec market, technology such as FlexRobotics and AutoSlide, reactivation economics that beat competitors, customer relationships, and a global footprint from the KCA Deutag acquisition.
The thesis fails if oil prices fall enough to cut operator drilling budgets, Middle East disruptions widen or rig suspensions extend, reactivation and supply chain costs erode margins, free cash flow stays weak under high cash taxes and capex, or the roughly $1.8 billion net debt position limits financial flexibility through a downturn.
Trey Adams has driven portfolio optimization, cost reduction, and deleveraging, including the early repayment of the $400 million term loan after the Utica Square sale. The near-term test is the CFO transition to Todd Scruggs and the planned repayment of the $350 million note due at the end of 2027.
HP sits in an oilfield services industry that management and analysts see entering a multi-year upcycle, driven by tight super-spec rig supply, low DUC inventories, the Middle East supply shock, and rising energy demand from emerging markets and AI-driven power needs. The offset is that the industry remains cyclical and price sensitive.
At about 13.2x TTM free cash flow, 0.84x sales, and a 2.96% dividend yield, HP is not expensive on current cash flow, but the roughly 31.9x forward P/E shows the market is already paying for a consensus earnings recovery into fiscal 2027. The margin of safety depends on whether that recovery arrives on time and leverage keeps falling.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HP stock price | $33.80 intraday on August 3, 2026; prior close $34.57 | StockAnalysis HP quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $3.38 billion, verified as $33.80 x 99.93M shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 99.93 million | StockAnalysis HP Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $4.00 billion, up about 29.7% year over year | StockAnalysis HP Financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About -$376.94 million, or -$3.79 per share | StockAnalysis HP Financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | About $255.99 million, or $2.56 per share | StockAnalysis HP Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $199.15 million cash and short-term investments, $2.00 billion total debt, net debt about $1.80 billion | StockAnalysis HP Balance Sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 13.2x TTM FCF, 0.84x sales, 1.37x book value, 2.96% dividend yield, forward P/E near 31.9x | financial_rigor.py valuation verification using StockAnalysis data | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 revenue and EBITDA | Revenue $932 million; adjusted EBITDA $178 million; adjusted loss -$0.38 per share, GAAP loss -$0.59 per share | HP Q2 FY2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | North America rig count raised to 138 to 144; international 58 to 68 rigs; fiscal 2026 gross capex $270 million to $310 million at the high end | HP Q2 FY2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.00 annualized, or $0.25 per quarter, with a 2.96% yield | StockAnalysis HP Dividend | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $15.17 to $41.82 | StockAnalysis HP quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating across 16 analysts, average price target $40.80, low $30, high $47 | StockAnalysis HP Forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical reference data | 50-day moving average near $35.48, 200-day moving average near $33.19, RSI near 47.5, 20-day average volume near 963,461 shares | StockAnalysis HP Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This HP AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, short, or hold Helmerich & Payne, Inc. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, and may be wrong if filings, market prices, oil prices, rig counts, business conditions, interest rates, regulation, tariffs, or Middle East events change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
