Park National Corporation research snapshot
PRK AI stock analysis currently reads Park National Corporation as a well-capitalized Ohio-based regional bank holding company whose branch network, loan book, deposit base, trust and wealth management services, conservative credit culture, and steady dividend growth matter more than near-term net interest margin pressure alone. The stock closed near $184.46 on July 10, 2026, with a market cap near $3.34 billion on about 18.10 million shares. FY2025 revenue was about $548 million with GAAP net income of $180 million and diluted EPS of $11.11, while Q1 2026 showed the first full quarter after the First Citizens National Bank merger with revenue of $160 million and EPS of $2.39. The bullish case needs post-merger integration to deliver cost savings, loan growth, and revenue synergies while net interest margins stabilize. The caution is that the PRK AI stock forecast remains a regional bank forecast, so credit quality, deposit costs, loan growth, economic cycles in the Ohio and Tennessee footprint, and rate path can reset earnings estimates.
Current price
$184.46
Market cap
$3.34 billion using about 18.10 million shares outstanding, verified within 0.00% of reported market cap math
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Regional bank holding company with 100+ branches across Ohio, strong credit metrics, consistent profitability, growing dividend, and a conservative loan and deposit base, but trading near fair value with limited near-term catalyst for multiple expansion
Trend status
Price holds above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a steady uptrend from the January 2026 low near $149.06, so the intermediate-to-long-term trend is bullish while short-term momentum near the 52-week high around $188.04 is mixed
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Park National sells deposit, lending, treasury management, trust, and wealth management services across Ohio and Tennessee through a branch network of more than 100 offices, operating under multiple community bank brands with local decision-making. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing community relationships, local market knowledge, a conservative credit culture, a growing deposit base, and brand recognition in its footprint. It narrows when larger regional or national banks target the same customers with better technology or pricing. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Matthew R. Miller was named in July 2025. The leadership team has emphasized disciplined growth, credit quality, digital investment, and the strategic First Citizens National Bank merger that closed in February 2026. Capital allocation focuses on organic growth, accretive mergers, and consistent dividend increases. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $445 million in FY2020 to $548 million in FY2025, with net income rising from $128 million to $180 million. Diluted EPS grew from $7.80 to $11.11 over the same span. Q1 2026 revenue was $160 million with $2.39 diluted EPS, reflecting the expanded balance sheet after the merger. | High |
| Valuation | At $184.46, the P/E of 16.50x on FY2025 EPS is below the Finance sector average near 20.5x and the broader market near 46x. P/B of 2.40x reflects a modest premium to book value. The dividend yield near 2.41% with a 40% payout ratio provides income support. The three-scenario model shows a base case near $188.60 using 15x on 4% EPS growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PRK holds above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The stock has rallied from the January 2026 low near $149.06 to the 52-week high area near $188.04. Barchart shows a 100% Buy technical opinion across all short, medium, and long-term indicators. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are net interest margin compression from deposit repricing, commercial real estate credit quality, merger integration execution, economic recession in the Ohio and Tennessee footprint, rising deposit costs, technology disruption from larger competitors, and key-person risk in leadership. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported financials and market data. Forecast confidence is medium because the post-merger share count and revenue trajectory are still being established, and regional bank valuations depend heavily on interest rate path and credit cycle. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | PRK screens as a conservatively managed, consistently profitable regional bank with a growing dividend, not a high-growth compounder. Certainty depends on merger integration, net interest margin stability, and the regional economic cycle. | Medium |
PRK AI stock forecast
The PRK AI stock forecast uses FY2025 diluted EPS of $11.18 as the base. An audited three-year model assuming 8% annual EPS growth with an 18x terminal PE points to a bullish value near $253.50, 4% growth with 15x points to a base value near $188.60, and a -5% decline with 12x points to a bearish value near $115.00. These are scenario ranges, not price promises. The Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $2.39 was below the consensus estimate of $3.01 partly due to merger-related costs and higher share count, so the near-term earnings trajectory requires integration milestones to be met.
$235 to $270
More likely if Park National successfully integrates First Citizens National Bank with cost saves above plan, net interest margin stabilizes above 3.8%, loan growth accelerates in the expanded footprint, credit quality remains benign, and the market re-rates the stock closer to 18x earnings.
$175 to $200
More likely if merger integration proceeds on schedule, net interest margin holds near current levels, loan and deposit growth track with the regional economy, and the market keeps PRK near 15x earnings around the current $184 to $188 zone.
$100 to $135
More likely if the regional economy weakens, commercial real estate credit losses rise, deposit costs outpace asset repricing, merger integration falls short of cost synergy targets, or the market re-rates regional banks toward 12x or lower earnings.
PRK AI technical analysis
PRK AI technical analysis uses market data available around the July 12, 2026 cutoff. PRK closed near $184.46 on July 10, 2026, near the 52-week high area. Barchart shows the 20-day moving average near $180.97, the 50-day near $174.93, the 100-day near $170.49, and the 200-day near $165.23. The 14-day RSI is near 59.55, indicating neutral-to-modestly-bullish momentum. Support levels from Barchart pivot points are near $182.74, $181.01, and $179.75. Resistance levels are near $185.73, $186.99, and $188.72. ADX near 15 points to a trending-but-not-overextended market. Historic volatility near 17-21% is moderate for a regional bank.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $184.46 | July 10, 2026 close area from Barchart and MarketBeat quote summaries. |
| Immediate support | $182.74 to $182.85 | Barchart first pivot support level near $182.74 and the lower end of the recent daily range provide the nearest downside reference. |
| Secondary support | $179.75 to $181.01 | Barchart second and third pivot support levels sit in this band, also near the 20-day moving average reference. |
| Near resistance | $185.73 to $186.99 | Barchart first and second pivot resistance levels sit just overhead, so reclaiming these levels matters for short-term continuation. |
| 52-week high resistance | $188.04 to $188.72 | The 52-week high is near $188.04. Barchart third pivot resistance is near $188.72. This band is the ultimate supply zone from the current trend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $174.93 | Barchart 50-day SMA near $174.93 serves as intermediate trend support. |
| 200-day moving average | About $165.23 | Barchart 200-day SMA near $165.23 is the long-term trend reference, well below current price. |
| Deeper support | $149.06 to $163.84 | 52-week low near $149.06 and the 50-day range low near $163.84 represent deeper zones if a broad regional bank selloff occurs. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55 to 60 | The 14-day RSI near 59.55 is neutral-bullish. Short-term RSI near 55-60 suggests room for further upside before overbought territory above 70. |
| Volume | About 113,000 shares on July 10, 2026 session | Average volume near 89,000 to 124,000 shares. PRK is a lower-liquidity regional bank stock, so price moves can be sharper on above-average volume. |
| Invalidation | Close below $170.00 | A decisive break under the 50-day moving average and the $179.75 support zone would weaken the bullish setup and suggest a broader trend reassessment. |
PRK AI trading strategy
The PRK AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with net interest margin, loan growth, deposit costs, credit quality metrics, merger integration milestones, and dividend trajectory.
Watch for PRK to hold above the $182 to $185 zone, then reclaim and sustain above the $188 to $189 52-week high area on reasonable volume while management demonstrates merger integration progress and stable net interest margin.
A close below $175, weaker net interest margin guidance, rising non-performing loans, or merger integration delays should reduce trend-following confidence.
If PRK pulls back toward the $165 to $175 area near the 50-day to 100-day moving averages without fundamental deterioration in credit quality or earnings, compare the entry with the audited base and bearish scenarios before treating the move as a buying opportunity.
Do not treat every regional bank pullback as a buying opportunity if the cause is a rising credit cycle, deposit cost pressure, or a rate path that compresses net interest margins structurally.
Track net interest income and margin, loan growth by category, deposit mix and cost, non-performing assets, provision for credit losses, efficiency ratio, merger cost saves, tangible book value per share, and dividend growth trajectory.
Position sizing should reflect that PRK has lower liquidity than larger banks, and that regional bank stocks can experience sharp drawdowns during credit cycle or rate path shifts even when individual credit quality is sound.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Park National for deposit safety, lending relationships, treasury management, and trust and wealth services delivered through local community bank brands that combine decision-making autonomy with the resources of a well-capitalized holding company.
Park National benefits from long-standing community relationships, local decision-making, a conservative credit culture, a stable low-cost deposit base, and brand recognition across 100-plus Ohio and Tennessee branches. The moat can narrow if larger regionals outspend on digital banking or if customer preferences shift away from branch-centric relationships.
The thesis fails if post-merger integration produces lower cost saves than expected, credit quality deteriorates in commercial real estate or the agricultural loan book, deposit costs rise faster than asset yields compress net interest margin, or the market re-rates regional banks downward as a group regardless of individual credit quality.
Matthew R. Miller became CEO in July 2025 after a long tenure at the bank, and David L. Trautman continues as Board Chair. The team has demonstrated consistent capital allocation through organic growth, dividend increases, and the strategic First Citizens National Bank acquisition. The capital allocation test is maintaining credit quality and profitability while integrating a material acquisition.
Regional banking benefits from steady deposit relationships, commercial and industrial lending, and wealth management fees. The industry faces headwinds from deposit cost repricing, net interest margin compression, technology investment demands, commercial real estate credit scrutiny, and the long-term shift from branch to digital banking.
At $184.46, PRK trades near the audited base case that uses 4% EPS growth and a 15x terminal PE. Margin of safety is limited because the current price already reflects fair value estimates. The upside from the base case is about 2% while the bearish case implies a 38% downside, which means the risk-reward is balanced near current levels.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PRK quote reference | About $184.46 close on July 10, 2026 | MarketBeat PRK overview and Barchart PRK snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.34 billion calculated from $184.46 x 18.10 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $3.34 billion was 0.00% | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Barchart, and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 18.10 million shares on Barchart; MarketBeat showed about 18.10 million, consistent across sources | Barchart and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and diluted EPS | Full-year revenue about $548 million; GAAP net income $180 million, or $11.11 per diluted share; basic EPS $11.18 | MarketBeat annual income statement and Barchart fundamentals | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS context | TTM revenue run rate above $550 million; TTM diluted EPS about $11.76 per Barchart; trailing PE near 15.5x to 16.5x depending on source | Barchart fundamentals and MarketBeat financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Q1 2026 revenue about $160 million (+22.6% year over year); GAAP net income $42 million, or $2.39 per diluted share; EPS below consensus of $3.01 partly due to merger-related costs and higher share count | Park National Q1 2026 earnings release (GlobeNewswire) and MarketBeat quarterly income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and book value | Total assets about $13.0 billion at Q1 2026 end; total common equity $1.70 billion; book value per share roughly $94; total deposits about $11.0 billion; debt-to-equity ratio 0.15 | MarketBeat balance sheet quarterly | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend profile | Annual dividend $4.40 per share; forward yield about 2.41%; 8-year consecutive dividend growth streak; payout ratio near 40% | MarketBeat PRK dividend page | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Consensus rating: Hold (4 analysts); average price target $184.50; range $180 to $189 | MarketBeat PRK analyst forecast | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios verification | PE 16.50x on FY2025 EPS; PB 2.40x; ROE 14.52%; P/FCF 18.73x; FCF yield 5.34%; all calculated with exact decimal arithmetic | Pineify financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Support near $182.74 to $179.75; resistance near $185.73 to $188.72; 50-day near $174.93; 200-day near $165.23; RSI near 55 to 60; Barchart technical opinion 100% Buy | Barchart technical analysis and opinion pages | July 12, 2026 |
| Industry and business mix context | Park National is a bank holding company with 100-plus branches in Ohio and Tennessee, offering deposit, lending, treasury management, and trust and wealth services | MarketBeat PRK company overview and Barchart profile | July 12, 2026 |
This PRK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if Park National merger integration, credit quality, net interest margin, loan growth, operating expenses, regulation, competition, or market valuation changes.
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