Parker-Hannifin Corporation research snapshot
PH AI stock analysis currently reads Parker-Hannifin as a high-quality motion and control technology company with strong aerospace demand, record fiscal 2026 third quarter sales, a record $12.5 billion backlog, and durable free cash flow. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, PH closed at $957.51 on July 7, and market cap math using 126.09 million shares implied roughly $120.73 billion. The AI view is constructive on business quality, scale, aftermarket exposure, and management execution, but valuation already prices in strong EPS growth, clean Filtration Group integration, and continued aerospace strength. This page uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$957.51
Market cap
$120.73 billion using current-share market cap math
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality industrial motion and control compounder with aerospace momentum, strong cash generation, and elevated valuation risk
Trend status
Constructive long-term trend with a short-term pullback, trading below the $1,034.96 52-week high but above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Parker-Hannifin sells engineered motion, control, fluid, filtration, sealing, and aerospace systems that are embedded in customer equipment and aftermarket service needs. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from application engineering, installed base, scale, distribution, aerospace qualification cycles, aftermarket relationships, and the operating discipline of The Win Strategy. | High |
| Management | CEO Jennifer Parmentier has continued margin expansion, aerospace mix improvement, cash deployment, dividend growth, buybacks, and portfolio shaping after the Meggitt integration. | High |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 revenue was $19.85 billion, net income was $3.53 billion, operating cash flow was $3.78 billion, and fiscal 2026 Q3 sales rose 11% to a record $5.5 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $957.51, PH traded near 35.3x trailing EPS, 8.3x book value, 32.8x free cash flow, and a 3.1% FCF yield by audited calculation. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price remains above the 200-day average, but the stock closed below its 50-day average and about 7.5% under the February 2026 high, suggesting a constructive but less extended setup. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are industrial cyclicality, aerospace program timing, tariffs and supply chain costs, acquisition integration, higher debt, customer concentration pockets, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed business and financial facts, medium for trading timing and three-year multiple assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. PH is a strong business, but the stock needs sustained mid-single-digit organic growth, aerospace strength, margin discipline, and sensible capital allocation to justify the current multiple. | Medium |
PH AI stock forecast
The PH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $957.51 close, trailing EPS of $27.11, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $1,093, a base value near $879, and a bearish value near $465 before dividends.
$1,060 to $1,120
More likely if fiscal 2026 guidance is met or raised, aerospace organic growth remains double digit, adjusted segment margin stays near 27%, the Filtration Group deal closes cleanly, and investors keep valuing PH near a low-30s earnings multiple.
$850 to $910
More likely if EPS compounds near 5%, organic sales growth normalizes after a strong aerospace cycle, margins remain strong but do not expand much further, and the market values PH near 28x earnings.
$440 to $490
More likely if industrial orders weaken, aerospace aftermarket growth slows, tariff or supply chain costs pressure margins, acquisition debt weighs on cash returns, or PH rerates toward a lower industrial multiple.
PH AI technical analysis
PH AI technical analysis is constructive but no longer fully extended as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. MarketWatch reported PH closed at $957.51 on July 7, 2026, 7.48% below its $1,034.96 52-week high. StockAnalysis listed a 50-day moving average near $905.67, a 200-day moving average near $887.78, RSI near 56.73, and average 20-day volume near 642,308 shares. Investing.com showed a newer 50-day average near $966 and 200-day average near $916, so live chart checks should be refreshed before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $957.51 | MarketWatch reported the July 7, 2026 close at $957.51, down 1.43% for the session. |
| Near support | $905 to $916 | The 50-day and 200-day moving-average zone from StockAnalysis and Investing.com is the first area to monitor for trend support. |
| Lower support | $864 to $888 | Barchart listed the 52-week midpoint near $863.49 and StockAnalysis showed the 200-day average near $887.78, making this a deeper pullback zone. |
| Near resistance | $966 to $972 | Investing.com showed a 50-day average near $966, while Barchart showed recent trading near $971, so this area can act as short-term supply. |
| Higher resistance | $1,034.96 | MarketWatch and Macrotrends reported the 52-week high at $1,034.96, set on February 25, 2026. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $906 to $966, 200-day about $888 to $916 | Vendor values differ by update time and methodology, but both sets show PH above the 200-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI about 56.7 | StockAnalysis showed neutral momentum, not an oversold setup and not an extreme overbought reading. |
| Volume | 584,234 versus 782,320 50-day average | MarketWatch reported July 7 volume below the 50-day average, so a breakout would need better participation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $888, then $864 | A decisive close below the 200-day area and the 52-week midpoint would weaken the constructive trend framework. |
PH AI trading strategy
The PH AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality industrial stock trading at a premium multiple. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live chart data, position sizing, and fresh fiscal 2026 guidance checks.
Look for PH to reclaim and hold the $966 to $972 short-term resistance zone, then test the $1,035 52-week high on stronger volume. Confirm that aerospace orders, backlog, adjusted segment margin, fiscal 2026 EPS guidance, and free cash flow remain supportive.
A breakout attempt that fails and closes back below the 200-day area should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If PH pulls back toward $905 to $916 without a guidance cut, review whether the selloff reflects general industrial multiple pressure or a real change in orders, margins, acquisition debt, and aerospace demand.
Do not average down only because PH is a respected compounder. A premium multiple can contract sharply if order rates or integration execution disappoint.
Track reported and organic sales growth, adjusted segment margin near 27%, EPS guidance near $31.20 adjusted, free cash flow guidance, order rates, aerospace backlog, Filtration Group approval and financing, debt paydown, dividends, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence if order rates turn negative, backlog falls, adjusted margin slips, debt rises faster than planned, or management uses capital in a way that weakens per-share value.
Investment research summary
Parker-Hannifin is paid because customers need reliable motion, control, fluid, filtration, sealing, and aerospace systems that keep industrial equipment, aircraft, vehicles, energy assets, and HVAC systems operating.
The moat is built from engineering know-how, qualified components, application-specific design, installed base, aftermarket service, distribution reach, scale purchasing, and process discipline from The Win Strategy.
The thesis fails if PH overpays for acquisitions, aerospace demand normalizes faster than expected, tariffs and supply costs compress margin, customers destock, debt limits flexibility, or the market stops paying a premium industrial multiple.
Management has executed major portfolio moves, expanded aerospace exposure, raised the dividend for 70 consecutive fiscal years, repurchased shares, and sustained high margins. The next test is Filtration Group integration and debt discipline.
PH benefits from aerospace build rates, defense demand, electrification, automation, energy infrastructure, HVAC efficiency, and industrial replacement cycles. The offset is that many end markets remain cyclical and sensitive to rates, tariffs, and capital spending.
The verified scenario model shows limited base-case upside from the July 2026 price unless growth and multiples stay strong. Margin of safety is modest because the stock already discounts much of the quality story.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PH price | $957.51 close on July 7, 2026 | MarketWatch daily quote report | July 8, 2026 |
| Market cap | $120.73 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 126.09 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $19.850 billion | Parker-Hannifin FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $3.532 billion | Parker-Hannifin FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | $3.776 billion | Parker-Hannifin FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $467 million at June 30, 2025 | Parker-Hannifin FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $7.494 billion at June 30, 2025 | Parker-Hannifin FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 sales | $5.5 billion, up 11% | Parker-Hannifin FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 Q3 adjusted EPS | $8.17, up 18% | Parker-Hannifin FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 outlook | 7% reported sales growth and $31.20 adjusted EPS | Parker-Hannifin FY2026 Q3 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical context | 50-day MA $905.67, 200-day MA $887.78, RSI 56.73 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This PH AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, does not consider your financial situation, and should not be used as a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, orders, margins, acquisitions, debt, rates, or market multiples change.
