Performance Food Group Company research snapshot
PFGC AI stock analysis currently reads Performance Food Group as a large North American foodservice distributor with strong independent-customer case growth, broader scale from acquisitions, and improving free-cash-flow generation. The counterweight is a business with thin margins, $7.83 billion of net debt at the March 2026 balance-sheet date, and a share price that is near its one-year high. As of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest source-backed price was $112.04, implied market capitalization was $17.60 billion, and fiscal 2026 guidance called for $67.7 billion to $68.0 billion of sales and $1.90 billion to $1.93 billion of adjusted EBITDA. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$112.04
Market cap
$17.60 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Execution-led foodservice distributor with rising leverage and thin-margin risk
Trend status
Above major moving averages and near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PFGC distributes food and related products to more than 300,000 locations across Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty, making logistics density and customer service the core economic engine. | High |
| Moat | Scale, route density, procurement, local relationships, private-label Performance Brands, and a broad product catalog create a real but not monopoly-like moat in a price-sensitive industry. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Scott McPherson is executing on independent growth and recent acquisition integration. The capital-allocation test is whether incremental EBITDA converts into debt reduction rather than simply more volume. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY26 Q3 net sales rose 6.4% to $16.3 billion, total case volume rose 4.4%, adjusted EBITDA rose 6.6% to $410.6 million, and nine-month free cash flow was $806.0 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $112.04, verified trailing GAAP PE was about 53.35x because interest and acquisition-related costs depress GAAP earnings, while price to free cash flow was about 17.32x. Forward estimates need careful scrutiny. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The price is above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI is near 66, which is constructive but leaves the stock closer to a momentum confirmation point than a deep-value entry. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because food distribution is low margin and PFGC reported $7.88 billion of total debt, $45.9 million of cash, and interest coverage near 2.05x on the latest trailing data. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported data and arithmetic have high confidence. Forecast outcomes have medium confidence because the market can revalue debt-sensitive distributors quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low: execution is visible, but the margin of safety depends on sustained cash conversion and disciplined deleveraging. | Medium-low |
PFGC AI stock forecast
The PFGC AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges instead of a point target. The required three-scenario GAAP EPS model returned a low $27 to $74 range because its $2.10 trailing GAAP EPS includes elevated interest and acquisition-related effects, so it is a conservative sensitivity rather than a stand-alone valuation. The practical range below weighs FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance, free cash flow, net debt, case volumes, and the multiple investors apply to foodservice distribution.
$125 to $140
More likely if independent Foodservice case growth stays strong, acquired operations integrate without margin leakage, FY26 adjusted EBITDA reaches the upper end of guidance, free cash flow reduces net debt, and the market accepts a premium forward multiple.
$100 to $120
More likely if sales and adjusted EBITDA land near guidance, case growth moderates with restaurant demand, and debt reduction offsets the pressure from low GAAP earnings and thin operating margins.
$70 to $90
More likely if restaurant traffic weakens, food deflation reduces sales dollars, labor or fuel costs rise, acquisition synergies disappoint, free cash flow softens, or refinancing and leverage concerns compress the multiple.
PFGC AI technical analysis
PFGC AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, but the setup is not low-risk. StockAnalysis data last checked July 10 showed a 50-day moving average of $99.64, a 200-day moving average of $95.33, RSI of 66.00, beta of 0.91, and average 20-day volume of about 1.57 million shares. Macrotrends showed a July 6 closing high of $113.74 and a 52-week high of $114.22. These levels should be refreshed with live chart data before any action.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $112.04 | Implied by the July 10, 2026 StockAnalysis market-cap and shares-outstanding data. |
| Near support | $99 to $100 | This area aligns with the reported 50-day moving average of $99.64. |
| Deeper support | $95 to $96 | This area aligns with the reported 200-day moving average of $95.33 and matters for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $113.74 to $114.22 | This zone captures the July 6 all-time closing high and the reported 52-week high. |
| Breakout reference | Above $114.22 with volume | A sustained close above the one-year high with volume near or above the 20-day average would provide stronger trend confirmation. |
| 50-day SMA | $99.64 | Price above this average supports the current intermediate uptrend. |
| 200-day SMA | $95.33 | A sustained break below this average would weaken the medium-term technical thesis. |
| Momentum | RSI 66.00 | Momentum is positive but not a substitute for an earnings and balance-sheet check. |
| Volume | About 1.57 million shares | The 20-day average volume is a reference for judging whether a breakout has participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.91 | Reported beta is close to the market average, although earnings and macro news can still create price gaps. |
| Invalidation | Close below $95 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving-average zone would invalidate the medium-term trend-following framework. |
PFGC AI trading strategy
The PFGC AI trading strategy is a research and risk-control framework, not personal investment advice. It separates a near-term chart setup from the fundamental work required for a leveraged, thin-margin distributor.
Watch whether PFGC holds above $99 to $100 and can close above $114.22 with volume near or above the recent average. Confirm the move with fiscal fourth-quarter case growth, adjusted EBITDA, and cash-flow commentary.
Treat a sustained close below $95 as an invalidation of the medium-term uptrend rather than a routine pullback.
If the stock retreats toward the moving-average zone, compare the implied free-cash-flow yield, net debt trend, and operating execution with Sysco, US Foods, and other distribution alternatives before assuming the decline is an opportunity.
Do not average down purely on a lower price. Review case volumes, gross-profit dollars, labor and fuel costs, interest expense, and the cash conversion of acquired businesses.
Track independent Foodservice cases, total cases, Performance Brands mix, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, capital spending, net debt, interest coverage, acquisition integration, restaurant demand, and food-cost inflation or deflation.
Recalculate scenarios after the expected August 12, 2026 earnings release because year-end cash flow and FY27 guidance can materially change the leverage and valuation view.
Investment research summary
PFGC earns a distribution spread by buying, warehousing, merchandising, and delivering food and related products reliably to restaurants, institutions, convenience customers, and specialty channels. Customers pay for availability, logistics, assortment, procurement, and service rather than for a high-margin proprietary technology product.
The moat rests on purchasing scale, route density, local sales relationships, a large distribution network, supplier access, and Performance Brands. It can widen with density and mix, but it is limited by intense competition from Sysco, US Foods, regional distributors, and customer price sensitivity.
The thesis fails if restaurant demand weakens, food deflation shrinks reported sales, volume growth reverses, labor, insurance, fuel, or freight costs outrun gross profit, acquisitions fail to integrate, or debt service absorbs cash that investors expected to compound.
Management has demonstrated growth execution in independent foodservice and recent acquisitions. The decisive management question is capital allocation: whether added scale lifts returns and deleveraging after the Cheney Brothers acquisition rather than making the balance sheet more fragile.
Outsourced foodservice distribution benefits from the continuing complexity of restaurant, institutional, convenience, and specialty supply chains. It is a durable operating need, not a winner-take-all technology shift, so cost discipline and local execution matter more than narrative.
The current price implies confidence in volume growth, integration, adjusted EBITDA, and cash conversion. Margin of safety is limited because the stock is near a one-year high, leverage is elevated, and GAAP earnings remain low relative to the share price. A safer thesis needs visible deleveraging and durable free cash flow.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price and market capitalization | $112.04 implied by $17.60 billion market cap and 157.09 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 157.09 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| FY26 Q3 sales and total case volume | $16.3 billion, up 6.4%; total case volume up 4.4% | Performance Food Group FY26 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY26 Q3 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS | $410.6 million and $0.80 | Performance Food Group FY26 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY26 nine-month free cash flow | $806.0 million | Performance Food Group FY26 Q3 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY26 guidance | $67.7 billion to $68.0 billion sales and $1.90 billion to $1.93 billion adjusted EBITDA | Performance Food Group FY26 Q3 outlook | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $66.75 billion and $328.5 million | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $45.9 million cash and $7.88 billion total debt | StockAnalysis balance-sheet statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical reference data | 50-day SMA $99.64, 200-day SMA $95.33, RSI 66.00, average 20-day volume 1.57 million | StockAnalysis statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| 52-week high reference | $114.22, with July 6, 2026 closing high of $113.74 | Macrotrends price history | July 11, 2026 |
This PFGC AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if volumes, margins, debt, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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