Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. research snapshot
PECO AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Phillips Edison & Company as a high-quality grocery-anchored retail REIT with accelerating operating momentum that is priced at a premium. The stock closed at $42.49 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $6.00 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $42.49 times 141.1 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q2 2026 report, released July 23, 2026, beat expectations with Nareit FFO of $0.67 per diluted share up 8.1%, Core FFO of $0.69 per diluted share up 7.8%, same-center NOI growth of 3.8%, record-high leased inline occupancy of 95.5%, and new lease rent spreads of 33.7%, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance with Nareit FFO per share of $2.67 to $2.72, Core FFO per share of $2.73 to $2.79, and gross acquisitions of $500 million to $600 million. Moody's revised PECO's credit outlook to positive on July 23, 2026. The stock ran to a 52-week high of $44.38 on July 17 and then cooled into the $42.49 close on July 31, below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $42.74 and $42.76 but still above its rising 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $41.68, $40.16, and $38.01. Offsetting the momentum is a premium valuation near 16.2x price to FFO, a forward P/E above 55x on GAAP earnings that include real estate depreciation, a payout ratio near 114% against GAAP EPS, net debt near $2.44 billion with net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDAre of 5.1x, interest rate sensitivity with the 10-year Treasury near 4.7%, and low insider ownership near 0.52%. The PECO AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges and technical invalidation levels rather than a certain price prediction.
Current price
$42.49
Market cap
$6.00 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-quality grocery-anchored retail REIT with accelerating operating momentum, priced at a premium
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with a short-term pullback below the 5 and 20-day averages after the July peak
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | PECO owns 302 wholly owned grocery-anchored shopping centers totaling about 33.9 million square feet across 31 states, with about 74% of rents from necessity-based goods and services and top anchors including Kroger, Publix, Albertsons, and Ahold Delhaize. Leased portfolio occupancy was 97.3% and leased inline occupancy reached a record 95.5% at June 30, 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from prime infill locations, long-term grocery anchor leases that drive daily foot traffic, retention above 90%, renewal rent spreads of 21.2%, and a vertically integrated national operating platform. Grocery anchors have limited e-commerce substitution, but retail formats can evolve so the moat is not the widest. | Medium-high |
| Management | Jeff Edison, founder and CEO since 1991, delivered a strong Q2 2026 with record occupancy, 33.7% new lease spreads, raised guidance, and disciplined capital allocation with unlevered IRR targets of 9% for grocery-anchored and 10% for everyday retail. Moody's revised the credit outlook to positive. Insider ownership is low near 0.52% and the company issued about $92 million of ATM equity in June and July 2026 to fund acquisitions. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $750.89 million with TTM net income attributable to stockholders of $143.71 million and EPS of $1.14. Q2 2026 Nareit FFO rose 8.1% to $0.67 per share, Core FFO rose 7.8% to $0.69, and same-center NOI grew 3.8%, and full-year 2026 Nareit FFO and Core FFO guidance midpoints rose 6.3% and 6.2% over 2025. Net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDAre was 5.1x with 95.9% fixed-rate debt. | High |
| Valuation | At $42.49, PECO trades near 37.3x trailing GAAP EPS, above 55x forward GAAP EPS, and about 16.2x price to FFO with a 3.06% dividend yield. The GAAP P/E is distorted by real estate depreciation; price to FFO near 16.2x is the more relevant REIT multiple and sits at a premium to many shopping center peers. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | PECO closed at $42.49 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $41.68, $40.16, and $38.01 but below its 5-day and 20-day averages near $42.74 and $42.76 after cooling from the July 17 high of $44.38, with 14-day RSI near 50 and 14-day ADX near 16. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate. Key risks include higher-for-longer rates compressing REIT multiples, consumer trade-down pressuring small-shop tenants with bad debt near 70 basis points, anchor disruption from the Kroger and Giant Eagle deal and the Albertsons turnaround, ATM dilution, and a premium valuation that leaves limited room for disappointment. | High |
| AI confidence | High for sourced portfolio metrics, Q2 results, guidance, and balance sheet data that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call. Medium for forward scenarios because REIT pricing depends on rate and cap rate assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. PECO offers defensive income and steady growth with improving momentum, but the premium valuation and interest rate sensitivity mean new buyers should expect moderate total returns with thinner margin of safety. | Medium |
PECO AI stock forecast
The PECO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $42.49 and the raised 2026 Core FFO guidance midpoint of $2.76 per share. Because REIT valuations depend heavily on interest rates and property cap rates, the three-scenario framework uses Core FFO growth of about 2%, 6%, and 8% per year over three years with exit price to FFO multiples of about 13x, 15.5x, and 18x. These are scenarios, not price promises.
$55 to $65
More likely if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, property cap rates compress, PECO executes the raised $500 million to $600 million acquisition program with 9% to 10% unlevered IRRs, occupancy keeps setting records, and the stock re-rates toward about 18x price to FFO. Annual total return potential including the 3.06% dividend yield would be in the high single to low teens percentage range.
$45 to $52
More likely if interest rates stay range-bound, same-center NOI grows about 3.5% to 4% annually, Core FFO compounds near the mid to high single-digit target, the multiple holds near 15.5x, and the dividend keeps growing about 5% per year. Total return would be driven by FFO growth plus the dividend with moderate price appreciation.
$34 to $42
More likely if the Fed holds rates higher for longer, cap rates expand, a slower consumer pushes small-shop tenants to default, anchor integration headlines disrupt occupancy, or the multiple compresses toward 13x price to FFO. Below $38, the dividend yield would approach 3.5% and could attract value-oriented REIT buyers as a floor.
PECO AI technical analysis
PECO AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff shows a long-term uptrend intact but a short-term pullback. The stock closed at $42.49 on July 31, 2026, above its rising 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $41.68, $40.16, and $38.01, but below its 5-day and 20-day averages near $42.74 and $42.76 after cooling from the 52-week high of $44.38 set on July 17. The following levels are based on recent price action and may shift with new market data.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $42.49 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 141.1 million shares outstanding. |
| Resistance (R1) | $43.50 to $44.38 | The 52-week high of $44.38 was set on July 17, 2026, with the $43.50 area and the 20-day average near $42.76 as minor overhead. A clean break above $44.38 with volume would signal trend continuation. |
| Support (S1) | $41.68 | The 50-day moving average near $41.68 is the first support zone and a natural level for dip buyers to defend. |
| Support (S2) | $40.16 | The 100-day moving average near $40.16 is the next support level if the pullback deepens. |
| Support (S3) | $38.01 | The 200-day moving average near $38.01 is the major support floor and the late-2025 breakout zone. A sustained break below this level would damage the long-term uptrend. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $42.74, 20-day $42.76, 50-day $41.68, 100-day $40.16, 200-day $38.01 | Barchart reported the 5-day and 20-day averages slightly above the July 31 close, which signals near-term momentum cooled, while price sits comfortably above the rising 50, 100, and 200-day averages. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50, ADX near 16 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 50.23, neutral rather than overbought, and 14-day ADX near 16.13 with short-term negative directional movement above positive, which points to a consolidating rather than strongly trending tape. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 840,000 shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 840,051 shares with the July 24 post-earnings session near 1.16 million, useful for checking whether a breakout is confirmed by volume. |
| Volatility | ATR near $0.72 | Barchart reported 14-day ATR near $0.72 or about 1.71% of price and 14-day historical volatility near 20.27%, so position sizing should account for larger swings around rate news and earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $40 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average near $40.16 would signal the pullback is correcting the medium-term uptrend; a close below the 200-day near $38.01 would turn the long-term structure bearish. |
PECO AI trading strategy
The PECO AI trading strategy frameworks below are educational frameworks, not personalized advice. They use publicly available technical and fundamental data as of August 3, 2026. Adapt position sizing and risk limits to your own account size, time horizon, and risk tolerance.
Watch for PECO to reclaim its 20-day moving average near $42.76 with rising volume and for a push back toward the $44.38 high, with the rising 200-day trend line near $38 providing the long-term floor. Enter on a confirmed move above $42.76 after a short-term consolidation.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $41.68 should trigger a stop and review, and a failed attempt at the $44.38 high without volume is a reason to reduce exposure.
If PECO tests the $43.50 to $44.38 zone again without volume or a catalyst while RSI stalls near 60, the short-term setup favors a reversion toward the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $42.76 and $41.68. Weakness into the $40 to $42 support cluster without fundamental damage can offer a mean-reversion entry for range traders.
Cover or reduce positions if price breaks above $44.50 on volume, which would invalidate the mean-reversion thesis and signal a breakout.
PECO pays a $1.30 annual dividend in monthly installments with a 3.06% yield and five consecutive years of growth. For income-focused strategies, consider building positions on pullbacks toward the 50-day moving average near $41.68 and holding through the mid-month ex-dividend dates.
Do not chase the stock solely for the dividend. The ex-dividend price adjustment typically offsets the cash received, and the payout ratio near 114% against GAAP EPS means monitoring FFO payout and guidance is important for sustainability.
Track same-center NOI growth, portfolio and inline occupancy, rent spreads, acquisition and disposition pace, the 10-year Treasury yield, property cap rates, and Federal Reserve policy, plus quarterly guidance updates and the Moody's positive outlook trajectory. Pair with Pineify AI Stock Picker for fundamental health signals and the Pine Script builder for custom technical screens.
Set a watchlist alert if PECO closes below $41.68 or if the 10-year Treasury yield pushes back above 4.7%, as historically this has pressured REIT multiples.
Investment research summary
PECO owns and operates 302 wholly owned grocery-anchored neighborhood shopping centers totaling about 33.9 million square feet across 31 states. Customers are everyday shoppers visiting Kroger, Publix, Albertsons, and Ahold Delhaize anchored centers, and the retailers pay rent to PECO for prime infill locations. The business is capital intensive but generates predictable, growing cash flows from long-term leases with annual rent escalators, and about 74% of rents come from necessity-based goods and services.
The moat is built on irreplaceable infill locations, long-term grocery anchor leases that drive daily foot traffic, retention above 90%, renewal rents up 21.2%, and a vertically integrated national operating platform. Grocery anchors have high switching costs for shoppers and limited e-commerce substitution. The moat does not meet the widest category because retail formats can evolve and tenant credit quality must be actively managed.
The thesis fails if interest rates stay higher for longer and compress REIT multiples, if a slower consumer pushes small-shop tenants to default with bad debt already near 70 basis points, if anchor integration headlines such as the Kroger and Giant Eagle deal or the Albertsons turnaround disrupt occupancy, if acquisition growth slows or ATM issuance dilutes, or if online grocery substitution accelerates. The most likely failure path is multiple compression from interest rate risk rather than operational deterioration.
Jeff Edison, founder and CEO since 1991, runs a cycle-tested platform with strong Q2 2026 execution: record inline occupancy, 33.7% new lease spreads, raised guidance, and disciplined capital allocation with unlevered IRR targets of 9% for grocery-anchored and 10% for everyday retail. Moody's revised the credit outlook to positive on July 23, 2026. Insider ownership is low near 0.52%, and the company issued about $92 million of ATM equity in June and July 2026 to fund accretive acquisitions.
Grocery-anchored retail sits in a favorable position within the broader retail REIT landscape because necessity-based demand is resilient, new supply is limited, and leading grocers continue to invest in physical stores, including Kroger's announced acquisition of Giant Eagle, which PECO described as positive for its ten Giant Eagle centers. Online grocery penetration has been stable at modest levels. This is a steady compounder rather than an exponential industry.
At $42.49 and a 3.06% dividend yield, PECO offers a modest margin of safety for income-focused investors. The trailing P/E near 37.3x is misleading due to REIT depreciation; the more relevant price to FFO near 16.2x sits at a premium to many shopping center peers. The stock is up about 23.5% over the trailing 52 weeks and trades above its 200-day moving average near $38, so the margin of safety for new buyers is thinner than it was a year ago and depends on continued execution of the raised guidance.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PECO price | $42.49 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.00 billion, computed as $42.49 x 141.1 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 FFO results | Nareit FFO of $93.7 million or $0.67 per diluted share up 8.1%, Core FFO of $95.5 million or $0.69 per diluted share up 7.8%, same-center NOI up 3.8% to $120.6 million | Phillips Edison & Company Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net income attributable to stockholders of $41.1 million or $0.33 per diluted share compared to $0.10 a year earlier; six-month net income of $71.5 million or $0.56 per diluted share | Phillips Edison & Company Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 earnings guidance | Nareit FFO per share of $2.67 to $2.72 raised from $2.66 to $2.71, Core FFO per share of $2.73 to $2.79 raised from $2.72 to $2.78, net income per share of $0.95 to $0.97 raised from $0.79 to $0.81, same-center NOI growth of 3.40% to 4.00% | Phillips Edison & Company Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| 2026 acquisition guidance | Gross acquisitions raised to $500 million to $600 million from $400 million to $500 million, with dispositions targeted at $100 million to $200 million and no additional equity issuance assumed | Phillips Edison & Company Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Portfolio statistics | 302 wholly owned properties totaling about 33.9 million square feet across 31 states as of June 30, 2026, with leased portfolio occupancy of 97.3%, leased anchor occupancy of 98.4%, and record leased inline occupancy of 95.5% | Phillips Edison & Company Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Rent spreads | Q2 2026 comparable new lease spreads of 33.7%, renewal lease spreads of 21.2%, and combined spreads of 24.8%, with a record 304 leases executed and record annual rent bumps of 3.1% on renewals | Phillips Edison & Company Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $7.132 million matching SEC EDGAR XBRL, total debt of about $2.45 billion, net debt near $2.44 billion, net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDAre of 5.1x, 95.9% fixed-rate debt, weighted average interest rate of 4.4%, and total liquidity of $857.3 million as of June 30, 2026 | Phillips Edison & Company Q2 2026 earnings release, Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, StockAnalysis.com, and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Moody's rating outlook | Moody's revised Phillips Edison & Company's credit outlook to positive on July 23, 2026, reflecting consistent operating performance, disciplined balance sheet management, and strong liquidity | Moody's outlook change press release | July 23, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $750.89 million up 8.1%, TTM net income attributable to stockholders of $143.71 million, and TTM EPS of $1.14 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 financials | Revenue of $726.59 million up 9.86% from $661.39 million, with net income attributable of $111.30 million up 77.56%; five-year revenue compound growth from FY2021 revenue of $532.85 million | StockAnalysis.com financials and Phillips Edison & Company filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Price to FFO of 16.20x, trailing P/E of 37.31x, forward P/E of 55.20x, price to sales of 7.98x, price to book of 2.30x, EV to EBITDA of 17.55x, and dividend yield of 3.06% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $1.30 per share paid monthly, yield of 3.06%, five consecutive years of dividend growth with growth of 5.62% over the last year, and an ex-dividend date of July 15, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst view | Consensus rating of Buy from 14 analysts with an average 12-month price target of $45.46, including raised targets of $47 at BofA and Evercore ISI and $48 at Ladenburg after the Q2 2026 report | StockAnalysis.com analyst forecast and TheFly research notes | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $42.74, 20-day SMA near $42.76, 50-day SMA near $41.68, 100-day SMA near $40.16, 200-day SMA near $38.01, 14-day RSI near 50.23, 14-day ADX near 16.13, 20-day average volume near 840,051 shares, and 52-week range of $32.84 to $44.38 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This PECO AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All forecasts, technical levels, and trading frameworks are based on publicly available data as of August 3, 2026, and represent scenarios, not certainties. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, rate decisions, tenant news, or market moves. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Real estate and REIT investments carry additional risks related to property markets, interest rates, tenant credit, and economic cycles. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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