Bullish case
$42 to $48
More likely if the advertising cycle extends, digital OOH revenue grows above 15% annually, margins expand on operating leverage, and the stock re-rates toward 35x forward earnings as the market prices in sustained growth.
OUTFRONT Media Inc. research snapshot
OUT AI Stock Analysis
OUT AI stock analysis currently reads OUTFRONT Media Inc. as a well-positioned out-of-home (OOH) advertising REIT with strong digital conversion tailwinds and a recovering ad market, but high debt leverage and cyclical ad-spending exposure temper the picture. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the July 10, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $33.04, market capitalization was $5.82 billion, and the key question is whether digital OOH growth, margin expansion, and leasing momentum can justify the stock at roughly 32x TTM earnings with debt at 604% of equity. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$33.04
Market cap
$5.82 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Good business momentum, high leverage and cyclical risk
Trend status
Strong uptrend near 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. OUTFRONT Media has a decade-plus public history, SEC filings, and decent analyst coverage, but as a mid-cap REIT the data density is lower than mega-cap names. Key data like digital vs. static revenue mix and lease renewal rates require inference from filings.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is extrapolating current momentum. OUT has tripled from its 52-week low and the strong price trend can create anchoring to bullish narratives. This page separates reported financials from scenario judgments and asks where the cycle could turn.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Low-medium. OUTFRONT is a cyclical business with meaningful leverage, so the investment outcome depends heavily on the advertising cycle, interest rates, and the pace of digital conversion.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | OUTFRONT is one of the three largest US OOH advertising platform operators with a national footprint of billboard, transit, and digital display inventory and long-term municipal transit franchise contracts. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from OOH inventory scale, exclusive transit franchise agreements, and digital display conversion that improves revenue visibility. Pricing power is moderate and tied to local ad market conditions. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Jeremy Male has led the digital display transition and balance sheet management. Capital allocation between digital investment, dividends, and debt reduction is the key area to monitor. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of approximately $1.87 billion and TTM net income of approximately $187 million showed year-over-year improvement as the ad market recovered. Digital revenue mix continues to grow as a share of total. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The stock traded near 32x TTM earnings, 25x forward earnings, and a 3.6% dividend yield at the cutoff. The P/E is elevated for a cyclical REIT, but PEG of 0.39 is low if growth sustains. | Medium |
| Technical trend | OUT traded above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with strong upward momentum, though near the 52-week high of $34.96. Short-term oscillators were positive. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are cyclical ad-spending sensitivity, high debt leverage at 604% debt-to-equity, interest rate exposure, transit contract renewal risk, and competition from digital advertising platforms. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for reported financials, market data, and valuation math. Lower confidence for future ad market direction, digital conversion rate, and interest rate impact. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. The business is well-positioned in a growing OOH ad market, but the cyclical nature, high leverage, and current valuation near the 52-week high require careful consideration of entry timing and position size. | Low-medium |
OUT AI stock forecast
OUT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The OUT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $33.04 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires continued ad market growth, digital OOH expansion, margin improvement, and stable interest rates. The base case assumes moderate growth with cyclical fluctuations. The bearish case assumes ad recession, digital competition pressure, or debt-related stress.
Base case
$30 to $36
More likely if OOH ad growth normalizes to mid-single digits, digital conversion continues at a steady pace, and the stock trades near its current valuation multiple with dividend yield around 3.5%.
Bearish case
$20 to $26
More likely if an advertising downturn hits, interest rate cuts slow, digital competition from online platforms intensifies, or debt servicing costs pressure the dividend and balance sheet.
OUT AI technical analysis
OUT AI Technical Analysis
OUT AI technical analysis starts from the $33.04 July 10 close used for this July 12 static page. Public technical sources showed the stock firmly above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with strong upward momentum. All 13 Barchart indicators gave buy signals at the cutoff. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $33.04 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $31.71 to $32.37 | Barchart pivot support zone S1 ($32.37) and S2 ($31.71). A close below this zone would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Secondary support | $30.81 | Barchart S3 support level. A sustained break below $30.81 would challenge the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $33.93 to $34.96 | The R1 resistance level at $33.93 and the 52-week high at $34.96 form a key resistance zone. A clean breakout above $34.96 with volume would signal trend continuation. |
| 50-day moving average | Estimated $29 to $30 | The 50-day MA was well below the current price, indicating strong short-term momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | Estimated $25 to $27 | The 200-day MA was significantly below the current price, confirming a strong long-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | Strongly bullish, RSI likely in 60-70 range | Barchart composite signal was 100% Buy at the cutoff, with all 13 indicators giving buy signals. |
| Volume | About 861,000 shares | Below the average volume of 1.73 million, suggesting the recent advance may need institutional participation confirmation. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.47 | OUT is about 47% more volatile than the S&P 500. Position sizing should account for above-average daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $31.71, then $30.81 | A close below the S2 support at $31.71 weakens the near-term setup. A break below S3 at $30.81 would challenge the trend. |
OUT AI trading strategy
OUT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The OUT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines business cycle awareness, technical confirmation, dividend yield support, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Look for OUT to hold above $31.71 and break above the $34.96 52-week high with improving volume before treating the trend as confirmed for continuation.
A failed breakout or daily close below $31.71 should reduce confidence. Avoid chasing above $34.96 without volume confirmation.
Mean-reversion / yield setup
If OUT pulls back toward the $30 to $31 area without a business thesis break, the 3.6% dividend yield provides income support. Assess ad cycle data and Q2 earnings before adding.
Do not average down solely because of the dividend. High debt leverage means the dividend is at risk in a downturn. Define maximum portfolio exposure to cyclical REITs.
Fundamental monitor
Track quarterly OOH advertising revenue trends, digital revenue share percentage, EBITDA margin trajectory, debt-to-EBITDA ratio, dividend coverage, and management commentary on transit contract renewals.
Reduce exposure if digital revenue growth stalls, leverage increases meaningfully, or the dividend payout ratio rises above 90% of FFO.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
OUTFRONT Media monetizes public and private spaces by leasing billboard, transit, and digital display inventory to advertisers, generating recurring rental and advertising revenue from a national footprint.
Moat
The moat is a combination of national OOH inventory scale, exclusive long-term municipal transit franchise agreements in major markets, and the ongoing conversion of static displays to digital, which improves yield and revenue visibility.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if a sustained advertising recession cuts occupancy and pricing, digital advertising dollars shift further toward online platforms, debt servicing costs crowd out dividends, transit contracts are not renewed on favorable terms, or interest rates remain high, pressuring the REIT structure.
Management
CEO Jeremy Male has led the company since 2015, overseeing the digital display transition and balance sheet management. Capital allocation decisions between digital investment, dividend maintenance, and deleveraging are critical to monitor.
Industry trend
Out-of-home advertising is growing as digital OOH technology enables programmatic buying, audience measurement, and dynamic creative. The US OOH market benefits from steady brand advertising demand, but remains tied to the broader economic and advertising cycle.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 32x TTM earnings and 25x forward earnings with a 3.6% dividend yield, the stock prices in continued ad market recovery and digital conversion success. The margin of safety is limited if the cycle turns or if digital growth disappoints relative to expectations.
Source-backed data
OUT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OUT price | $33.04 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.82B, verified as $33.04 x 176,060,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $1.87 billion (trailing four quarters) | Google Finance income statement and Yahoo Finance summary | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $187 million | Google Finance quarterly net income: Jun 2025 $19.5M, Sep 2025 $51.3M, Dec 2025 $96.8M, Mar 2026 $19.1M | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EBITDA | Approximately $459 million | Google Finance quarterly EBITDA: Jun 2025 $103.2M, Sep 2025 $118.5M, Dec 2025 $154.3M, Mar 2026 $82.5M | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $9.91 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Total cash | $67.2 million (most recent quarter) | Yahoo Finance balance sheet snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Debt-to-equity | 604% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $1.20 annual dividend, 3.63% yield | Yahoo Finance dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 31.77x TTM PE, 25.25x forward PE, 33.04x TTM P/FCF, 3.03% FCF yield (verified with financial_rigor.py) | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 100% Buy Barchart composite, all 13 indicators bullish. Support $31.71-$32.37, resistance $33.93-$34.96 | Barchart Opinion and pivot levels | July 12, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This OUT AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 10, 2026 and can be wrong. OUTFRONT Media is a cyclical REIT with meaningful financial leverage; any investment decision should be based on your own due diligence and risk tolerance.
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