Oscar Health, Inc. research snapshot
OSCR AI stock analysis currently reads Oscar Health as a rapidly expanding Affordable Care Act insurer with a technology-led member experience, strong first-quarter 2026 results, and a 2026 profitability recovery that still needs a full-year test. Revenue reached $4.647 billion in Q1 2026, membership reached 3.174 million, and management reaffirmed $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion of 2026 revenue guidance. The counterweight is a history of losses, medical-cost and risk-adjustment uncertainty, policy exposure, dual-class control, and a share price near the 52-week high. The July 10 close was $30.54 and the calculated market value was about $9.20 billion. This OSCR AI stock analysis uses scenarios and technical references for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$30.54
Market cap
$9.20 billion calculated, compared with a $9.40 billion third-party reference
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
High-growth health insurer, profitability recovery not yet proven
Trend status
Intermediate uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages, but below the recent 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Oscar combines ACA health plans with a full-stack technology platform, member engagement tools, +Oscar services, and newer ICHRA and enrollment assets. The product solves a real consumer problem, but health-plan economics remain exposed to claims and regulation. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is narrower than the technology story suggests. Brand, member data, enrollment workflow, provider networks, and operating scale help, but competitors can match benefits, distribution, capital, and insurer infrastructure. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Mark Bertolini brings large-insurer experience from Aetna, while co-founder Mario Schlosser remains focused on technology. Execution is improving, but the dual-class structure gives Thrive Capital and co-founders 76.1% of voting power based on the 2025 10-K. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $1.839 billion in 2021 to $11.701 billion in 2025. Q1 2026 revenue rose 52.5% year over year to $4.647 billion, while net income attributable to Oscar rose to $679.0 million, helped by favorable development and seasonality. | High |
| Valuation | The stock traded at about 0.69x TTM sales and 28.81x the $1.06 adjusted EPS consensus proxy used in the audit model. The multiple looks moderate on sales and cash flow, but forward earnings are not yet fully verified through a complete profitable year. | Medium |
| Technical trend | OSCR closed at $30.54, above the cited $25.06 50-day average and $18.10 200-day average, with RSI 64.27. The chart is constructive, but the stock remains close to the $33.10 52-week high and has a beta of 2.34. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because medical costs, risk adjustment, ACA policy, subsidy changes, member retention, capital requirements, data security, dual-class governance, and dilution can all change the earnings path quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for reported data and medium for valuation scenarios. The model can organize filings and calculate ranges, but it cannot resolve medical-cost estimates, policy outcomes, or market multiples in advance. | High for data, medium for scenarios |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is lower than the data confidence because the turnaround is not yet proven across a full insurance year and the price already reflects a large portion of the growth narrative. | Medium-low |
OSCR AI stock forecast
The OSCR AI stock forecast uses the July 10 close of $30.54 and a consensus adjusted EPS proxy of $1.06. The audited three-year model used 30% bullish, 15% base, and negative 15% bearish annual EPS growth with 30x, 20x, and 12x terminal multiples. It produced about $69.90, $32.20, and $7.80 before widening each result into a research range. These are scenarios, not guaranteed targets.
$60 to $75
More likely if Oscar converts the 2026 revenue outlook into durable operating profit, keeps MLR near or below guidance, retains the expanded member base, scales +Oscar and ICHRA without heavy losses, and earns a premium growth multiple.
$27 to $36
More likely if revenue lands near the $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion guide, operating income reaches the lower half of the $250 million to $450 million range, membership remains healthy, and the market values the company near a mid-cycle multiple.
$7 to $12
More likely if risk-adjustment payments disappoint, medical utilization rises, policy or subsidy changes reduce enrollment, the 2026 guide is cut, or investors apply a low multiple to a renewed loss-making insurer.
OSCR AI technical analysis
OSCR AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and the StockAnalysis snapshot checked around the same cutoff. Price was above both moving averages, RSI was positive but not yet at an extreme, and the stock had recently traded below its $33.10 52-week high. These are static research levels, not live execution prices, so confirm them on a current chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.54 | Latest verified close from July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $25.00 to $25.50 | The StockAnalysis 50-day moving average was about $25.06 at the July 10 snapshot. A sustained break would weaken the intermediate trend. |
| Secondary support | $18.00 to $18.50 | The StockAnalysis 200-day moving average was about $18.10. A break would challenge the longer-term recovery structure. |
| Resistance | $33.10 | The latest 52-week high shown in the StockAnalysis overview and price history data. |
| 50-day moving average | $25.06 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot last updated July 10, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $18.10 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot last updated July 10, 2026. |
| Momentum | RSI 64.27 | Momentum was positive but approaching the commonly watched overbought area. It should be read with price structure and earnings risk. |
| Volume | About 6.38 million shares average over 20 days | StockAnalysis average volume reference. A breakout above $33.10 would be more credible with volume expansion. |
| Volatility | Beta 2.34; 52-week range $10.69 to $33.10 | The beta and wide range indicate that position sizing matters more than a single technical signal. |
| Invalidation | Close below $25.06, then $18.10 | A close below the 50-day area weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 200-day area would challenge the longer recovery thesis. |
OSCR AI trading strategy
The OSCR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It links price confirmation with MLR, risk adjustment, membership, policy, capital, and full-year profitability evidence.
Watch for OSCR to hold the $25.00 to $25.50 support area and reclaim $33.10 with expanding volume while management maintains 2026 revenue, MLR, SG&A, and operating-income guidance.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day area should reduce confidence. Use smaller exposure because beta is above 2.
If OSCR pulls back toward the 50-day average without a guidance cut, compare the pullback with membership retention, medical-cost commentary, risk-adjustment accruals, and next-quarter operating income.
Do not average down only because the stock is below its recent high. Reassess if the price breaks $25.06 or the operating thesis deteriorates.
Track MLR, SG&A ratio, member count, direct policy premiums, risk-adjustment transfers, operating cash flow, regulatory capital, cash and investments, debt, dilution, and +Oscar adoption.
Lower confidence if MLR rises above guidance, enrollment quality worsens, risk-adjustment estimates reverse, or reported profit depends on one-time reserve development.
Investment research summary
Oscar sells ACA health plans and related enrollment and technology services. Members pay for access to a regulated provider network and coverage, while Oscar earns premiums, investment income, and smaller technology and other revenues. The economic engine is underwriting discipline plus member scale, not software margins alone.
The moat comes from brand, enrollment data, a consumer-facing platform, provider relationships, operational scale, and the accumulated workflow behind +Oscar and Campaign Builder. Switching costs are meaningful for an insurer but not absolute because consumers can change plans during enrollment windows and rivals have large capital bases.
The thesis fails if Oscar grows membership faster than it can price medical risk, misestimates risk-adjustment transfers, faces higher utilization, loses subsidy support, suffers regulatory or data-security costs, or cannot convert Q1 profitability into a full-year result. A market that values Oscar as a technology platform rather than an insurer would also create downside if underwriting disappoints.
Mark Bertolini has prior Aetna and broader health-insurance leadership experience, while Mario Schlosser continues to lead technology after moving out of the CEO role. The key management test is whether the team can scale enrollment, keep claims economics disciplined, allocate capital safely, and protect minority investors under the dual-class structure.
Consumer-directed healthcare, ACA enrollment, digital plan shopping, ICHRA, and applied AI create a long runway. The industry remains shaped by government subsidies, risk adjustment, medical utilization, provider pricing, and regulation, so the addressable market can grow while margins remain difficult to forecast.
The model produced a wide three-year range because the same $30.54 price can look reasonable on sales and cash flow while still requiring a large improvement in recurring earnings. The margin of safety is limited until full-year 2026 operating profit, MLR, and cash generation confirm that Q1 was not mainly seasonal or reserve-driven.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OSCR price reference | $30.54 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical price data | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares and market capitalization | 301.18 million shares; $9.20 billion calculated from price times shares, versus $9.40 billion reported reference | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and membership | $4.647 billion revenue, up 52.5% year over year; 3.174 million Individual and Small Group members | Oscar Health Q1 2026 financial results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $679.0 million net income attributable to Oscar, $727.1 million adjusted EBITDA, 70.5% MLR, and 15.2% SG&A ratio | Oscar Health Q1 2026 financial results | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | $18.7 billion to $19.0 billion revenue, 82.4% to 83.4% MLR, 15.8% to 16.3% SG&A ratio, and $250 million to $450 million operating income | Oscar Health full-year 2025 results and Q1 2026 reaffirmation | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $11.701 billion revenue and $443.2 million net loss attributable to Oscar | Oscar Health 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | Q1 2026 cash and equivalents $4.805 billion, short-term investments $1.995 billion, long-term investments $1.267 billion, and long-term debt $430.9 million | Oscar Health Q1 2026 balance sheet, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year revenue trend | 2021 $1.839B, 2022 $3.964B, 2023 $5.863B, 2024 $9.178B, 2025 $11.701B | StockAnalysis revenue history, cross-checked with SEC 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | $25.06 50-day average, $18.10 200-day average, RSI 64.27, beta 2.34, and 6.38M average 20-day volume | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation and scenario math | 28.81x EPS proxy, 5.48x book value, 3.29x free cash flow, 0.69x sales; three-year model outputs about $69.90, $32.20, and $7.80 | StockAnalysis inputs and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
This OSCR AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong. The full-year 2026 outlook is company guidance, the EPS input is a consensus proxy, and technical levels are static snapshots that must be rechecked against current data.
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