Ormat Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
ORA AI stock analysis reads Ormat Technologies as a vertically integrated geothermal, energy storage, and power product company that delivered record Q1 2026 revenue growth of 75.8% while also completing a $1 billion upsized convertible notes offering to cut its cost of debt to about 3.9%. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, ORA closed at $97.58 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization of about $6.00 billion. The stock sits roughly 33% below its June 2026 all-time high of $146.39 and trades below the 50-day average of $120.46 and the 200-day average of $115.72 with an RSI near 33. The trailing PE of 47.07 and forward PE of 55.90 remain expensive for a company with negative free cash flow of about $215 million and net debt of roughly $2.6 billion. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$97.58
Market cap
$6.00 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Vertically integrated geothermal operator with record Q1 2026 growth and a strengthened balance sheet, offset by a deep 33% drawdown, negative FCF, and high leverage
Trend status
Bearish near-term trend well below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp correction from the June 2026 all-time high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ormat is paid by utilities, corporates, and hyperscalers to provide 24/7 baseload renewable electricity from geothermal plants under long-term PPAs, plus energy storage capacity and geothermal power equipment. Customers pay for dispatchable carbon-free power that solar and wind cannot reliably match without storage. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary geothermal technology, including the new Ormega100 binary unit, decades of operating data, long-term PPAs with creditworthy counterparties, interconnection rights, and high barriers to entry in geothermal exploration and drilling. It is narrower than a regulated utility and faces competition from falling solar-plus-storage costs. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Doron Blachar has led Ormat through international expansion, EGS and storage initiatives, and a $1 billion convertible raise that cut the cost of debt to about 3.9%. Capital allocation remains a concern given negative FCF and leverage, but the company refinanced advantageously and maintained its $0.12 quarterly dividend. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $1.16 billion, up 31.5% year over year, with TTM net income of about $127.6 million and a 10.97% profit margin. Q1 2026 revenue grew 75.8% to $403.9 million. However, TTM free cash flow is negative $215.3 million and net debt is roughly $2.6 billion, about 4.2x EBITDA. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $97.58, ORA trades at 47.07x trailing PE, 55.90x forward PE, 5.15x price/sales, 2.33x price/book, and 18.71x EV/EBITDA. The three-year scenario model using $2.07 EPS produced bear, base, and bull areas near $55, $91, and $131, implying limited margin of safety at the current price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | ORA corrected sharply from the June 2026 all-time high of $146.39 to $97.58, a decline of about 33%. The stock closed below the 50-day moving average of $120.46 and the 200-day moving average of $115.72 with an RSI near 33, pointing to a bearish near-term trend with support near $84.13. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Main risks include high leverage (1.26 debt/equity, 7.29x debt/EBITDA), negative free cash flow, geothermal resource variability and EGS exploration risk, project development delays, competition from cheaper solar-plus-storage, and sensitivity to interest rates and power prices. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, market data, technical averages, and valuation math. Medium for forward price ranges, EGS outcomes, and competitive dynamics. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. ORA has a real competitive position in geothermal and growing storage and product segments, but negative FCF, high leverage, an expensive valuation, and a broken trend leave a thin margin of safety that depends on strong execution. | Low to medium |
ORA AI stock forecast
The ORA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $97.58 price, TTM EPS of $2.07, and estimated long-term earnings growth of 2% to 12%. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $55, a base area near $91, and a bullish area near $131. These are scenario ranges based on assumptions, not guaranteed targets.
$125.00 to $152.00
More likely if Ormat sustains 12% annual earnings growth, storage and product segments keep delivering, geothermal and EGS gain recognition as critical baseload power for AI data centers, the balance sheet improves without dilution, and the market re-rates ORA toward 45x earnings. Analyst targets from UBS ($152) and TD Cowen ($145) support this area.
$85.00 to $115.00
More likely if earnings grow near 8%, the company executes its 2026 revenue guidance of $1.11 to $1.16 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $615 to $645 million, debt stays manageable, and the market values ORA near 35x earnings, consistent with the $115 Bernstein target as the low end.
$50.00 to $70.00
More likely if earnings growth slows to 2% or less, negative FCF persists and forces equity dilution or asset sales, geothermal and EGS exploration costs disappoint, interest rates stay high, or a break below the 52-week low of $84.13 extends the correction.
ORA AI technical analysis
ORA AI technical analysis shows a stock that rallied from 2024 through June 2026, peaked at $146.39, and then corrected by approximately 33% to the July 31, 2026 close of $97.58. As of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, ORA trades below both the 50-day moving average of $120.46 and the 200-day moving average of $115.72 with an RSI near 33, indicating a bearish near-term trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $97.58 | The July 31, 2026 market close used $97.58 as the current ORA price, with pre-market trading near $96.92 on August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $95.00 to $97.00 | Short-term support sits near the recent July 2026 lows and the round $95 to $97 zone. |
| Structural support | $84.13 | The 52-week low at $84.13 is the key structural support. A decisive close below it would open a lower trading range. |
| Near resistance | $105.00 to $110.00 | Initial resistance is near the $105 to $110 zone, the first overhead supply from the late June breakdown. |
| 200-day moving average | $115.72 | The 200-day moving average near $115.72 is the first major reclaim level and a proxy for the long-term trend. |
| 50-day moving average | $120.46 | The 50-day moving average at $120.46 sits above price, confirming the bearish near-term momentum after the 33% correction. |
| Major resistance | $130.00 to $146.39 | The all-time high zone near $146.39 is the major resistance level to reclaim for a full trend resumption. |
| Momentum | Bearish after 33% correction | Closing below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with an RSI near 33 signals persistent selling pressure. |
| Volume | Elevated trading, 20-day average near 793,000 shares | Average volume of roughly 793,000 shares per day has accompanied the decline, indicating active distribution. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.88, lower than the market average | ORA has below-market beta at 0.88, but the drawdown has produced wide daily swings. Size positions to tolerate $3 to $5 daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $84.13 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would invalidate the current support structure and signal a new downtrend. |
ORA AI trading strategy
The ORA AI trading strategy is a rules-based monitoring framework for a vertically integrated geothermal, storage, and product company with long-term contracted cash flows, high leverage, negative FCF, and a bearish near-term trend. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, the Q2 2026 earnings release on August 5, 2026, and a defined invalidation level.
Wait for ORA to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $115.72 and then the 50-day moving average near $120.46 with volume confirmation before treating the trend as improving. A durable uptrend requires better free cash flow, stable or falling debt, and no negative project or regulatory news.
If the stock breaks below $95 with above-average volume, the near-term trend is likely lower. Reassess after stability near the $84.13 52-week low zone. Use a defined stop and position size suited to $3 to $5 daily swings.
If ORA approaches $84 to $95 near the 52-week low, compare the current PE multiple, debt-to-EBITDA ratio, and project pipeline versus historical ranges. A reversion trade requires fundamental support from the PPA portfolio and no imminent negative catalyst ahead of the August 5 earnings report.
Do not buy the dip solely because of the PE decline. Negative FCF and high leverage mean a prolonged correction can continue if project delays, resource issues, or a guidance miss emerge.
Track Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, PPA contract renewals and pricing, storage and product segment backlog, debt/EBITDA, free cash flow trajectory, EGS pilot progress, the Ormega100 commercialization, and competition from other renewable technologies.
Reduce confidence if FCF remains deeply negative, debt/equity rises above current levels, project delays mount, or the dividend is at risk. A PE compression toward 35x would imply a stock price closer to $72 to $83.
Investment research summary
Ormat Technologies is paid by utilities, corporates, and hyperscalers to provide 24/7 baseload renewable electricity from geothermal power plants under long-term PPAs, plus energy storage and geothermal power equipment. Customers pay because they need dispatchable carbon-free power that intermittent solar and wind cannot reliably match without storage.
Ormat's moat is built on proprietary geothermal technology, including the Ormega100 modular binary unit, decades of operational data, long-term PPAs with creditworthy counterparties, interconnection rights, and high barriers to entry in geothermal exploration, drilling, and permitting. The storage and product segments add optionality but also execution risk.
The thesis fails if geothermal project development costs stay high relative to solar-plus-storage, debt becomes harder to service at current leverage, steam field output declines, EGS pilots or the Ormega100 rollout disappoint, regulatory permitting creates long delays, or the negative FCF forces equity dilution that destroys per-share value.
CEO Doron Blachar has led Ormat through international expansion, EGS and storage initiatives, and a $1 billion convertible raise that reduced the cost of debt to about 3.9%. The capital allocation record is mixed given persistent negative FCF, but the company maintained its $0.12 quarterly dividend and refinanced on favorable terms.
Ormat sits at the intersection of renewable energy buildout and rising demand for 24/7 carbon-free electricity from utilities, corporates, and AI data centers, evidenced by PPAs with Google and Switch. Geothermal is positionally advantaged as baseload renewable, but economics face pressure from rapidly falling solar-plus-storage costs.
At 47x trailing PE with negative FCF and 1.26 debt/equity, the valuation offers a thin margin of safety. The three-year scenario model suggests a base-case fair value near $91, below the current $97.58. Margin of safety would improve meaningfully near $85 or below.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORA price | $97.58 close on July 31, 2026, with pre-market near $96.92 on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.00 billion, verified as $97.58 x 61.45M shares with 0.06% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 61.45 million shares, up 1.28% year over year, with institutions owning about 87.94% and insiders about 0.22% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $8.75 billion, with 68.60x EV/earnings, 7.52x EV/sales, and 18.71x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $1.16 billion, up 31.5% year over year, cross-validated between StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance within 0.00% | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py cross-validation | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $127.6 million net income and $2.07 EPS, verified as 47.07x trailing PE at $97.58 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Record revenue of $403.9 million, up 75.8% year over year, with adjusted diluted EPS of $1.30 versus $0.90 consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of $194.9 million, up 29.7% | Ormat Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue and net income | $989.54 million revenue, up 12.49%, and $123.90 million net income, up 0.13% | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $654.65 million cash and equivalents, about $3.41 billion total debt, and net debt of roughly $2.6 billion or about 4.2x EBITDA as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Ormat Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial leverage ratios | Debt/equity of 1.26, debt/EBITDA of 7.29x, interest coverage of 1.11x, and current ratio of 1.07 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | Negative $215.29 million, with operating cash flow of $325.67 million and capital expenditures of $540.96 million | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 47.07x trailing PE, 55.90x forward PE, 5.15x price/sales, 2.33x price/book, and 18.71x EV/EBITDA, verified with financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.48 annual, 0.49% yield, paid quarterly at $0.12 per share, with a 23.15% payout ratio and the last ex-dividend date on May 20, 2026 | StockAnalysis dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue guidance of $1.11 to $1.16 billion (up 14.6% at the midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $615 to $645 million, maintained after Q1 | Ormat Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 13 analysts with an average price target of $133.83 and a range of $115 to $152 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $54.9, base $91.3, bull $130.9 using $2.07 EPS, 2% to 12% growth, and 25x to 45x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $120.46, 200-day moving average $115.72, RSI 33.11, beta 0.88, 52-week range $84.13 to $146.39, and 20-day average volume about 793,000 shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.18 million shares, about 8.43% of shares outstanding, with a short ratio of 5.55 days | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This ORA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, SEC filings, risk factors, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
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