Ormat Technologies, Inc. research snapshot
ORA AI stock analysis currently reads Ormat Technologies as a vertically integrated geothermal energy company with long-term contracted power purchase agreements, proprietary technology, and decades of operating history. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, ORA traded at $109.77 with verified market capitalization near $6.75 billion. The business has real engineering depth and essential baseload renewable energy assets, but the stock faces valuation pressure at 53x trailing earnings with negative levered free cash flow and elevated debt. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$109.77
Market cap
$6.75 billion verified and reported
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Established geothermal operator with long-term PPAs, but the valuation is demanding given high debt and negative free cash flow
Trend status
Correcting from June 2026 all-time high near $146, trading well below key moving averages with weak near-term momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ormat is paid by utilities and industrial buyers to provide baseload electricity from geothermal power plants under long-term PPAs. Customers need geothermal because it provides 24/7 renewable power that solar and wind cannot match without storage. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary geothermal technology expertise, decades of operating data, long-term PPAs, interconnection rights, and barriers to entry in geothermal exploration and drilling. However, the moat is narrower than a regulated utility and faces competition from solar-plus-storage. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Doron Blachar has been with Ormat for over a decade and has navigated international expansion and technology development. Capital allocation is a concern given the high debt load and negative FCF, and the companys reliance on project financing adds execution risk. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of approximately $1.07 billion (cross-validated median) shows steady growth from contracted assets. TTM net income of about $125.75 million gives a 10.97% profit margin. However, levered free cash flow of negative $178.82 million TTM is a significant concern. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $109.77, ORA trades at 53x TTM PE, 5.82x price/sales, 2.62x price/book, and 17.35x EV/EBITDA. The forward PE of 57x is even higher. The three-year scenario model using $2.07 EPS produced bear, base, and bull areas near $55, $91, and $131. | Medium |
| Technical trend | ORA corrected sharply from the June 2026 all-time high of $146.39 to $109.77, a decline of about 25%. The stock is trading below key moving averages with near-term momentum appearing weak. Support near $100 and the 52-week low of $84.13 are key downside levels. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include high financial leverage (125.51% debt/equity), negative levered free cash flow, geothermal resource variability (steam field depletion), project development delays, competition from cheaper solar and wind, regulatory and permitting risks, and interest rate sensitivity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, financial statement data, and audited calculations. Medium for forward price ranges, competitive dynamics, and technical levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. ORA has a real competitive position in geothermal energy and long-term contracted revenue, but the high multiple, negative FCF, and leverage create a narrow margin of safety that requires strong future execution to justify the current price. | Low to medium |
ORA AI stock forecast
The ORA AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $109.77 price, TTM EPS of $2.07, and estimated long-term earnings growth. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $55, a base area near $91, and a bullish area near $131. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
$114.00 to $145.00
More likely if Ormat delivers 12% annual earnings growth, geothermal is recognized as critical baseload renewable for AI data centers, debt is managed without dilution, new projects come online on schedule, and the market values ORA near 45x earnings.
$82.00 to $102.00
More likely if earnings grow near 8%, the company maintains its current PPA portfolio with gradual expansion, debt levels stay manageable, and the market values ORA near 35x earnings.
$48.00 to $62.00
More likely if earnings growth slows to 2% or less, negative FCF persists and forces equity dilution or asset sales, interest rates stay high pressuring the project finance model, geothermal competition from solar-plus-storage erodes pricing, or resource quality deteriorates.
ORA AI technical analysis
ORA AI technical analysis shows a stock that rallied strongly from early 2024 through June 2026, peaking at $146.39, then corrected sharply by approximately 25% to the current $109.77. As of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the stock was in a corrective phase below key moving averages with deteriorating momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $109.77 | The July 10, 2026 market close used $109.77 as the current ORA price. |
| Near support | $100.00 to $105.00 | Short-term support is near the $100 round number and recent July 2026 lows. |
| Structural support | $84.13 | The 52-week low at $84.13 represents structural support; a break below would set a new lower range. |
| Near resistance | $120.00 to $125.00 | Initial resistance sits near the breakdown zone from the late June 2026 sell-off. |
| Major resistance | $140.00 to $146.39 | The all-time high zone near $146.39 is the major resistance level to reclaim for a full trend resumption. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Price was well below the 50-day MA after the sharp correction, indicating near-term bearish momentum. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart. The 25% correction may have brought ORA toward or below this level. |
| Momentum | Bearish after 25% correction from all-time high | The sharp decline from $146 to $110 in about five weeks suggests strong selling pressure. |
| Volume | Elevated volume on the decline | The pullback from the all-time high has been accompanied by above-average volume on down days, suggesting institutional distribution. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | ORA has exhibited wide daily swings during the correction. Use position sizing that can tolerate $3-5 daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $84.13 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would invalidate the current support structure and signal a new downtrend. |
ORA AI trading strategy
The ORA AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a geothermal energy company with long-term contracted cash flows, high financial leverage, and negative FCF. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, project updates, earnings reports, and a defined invalidation level.
Wait for ORA to stabilize above $105 and reclaim the estimated 50-day MA with volume confirmation. An improving trend requires better FCF performance, stable or declining debt ratios, and no negative project or regulatory news.
If the stock breaks below $100 with above-average volume, the near-term trend is likely lower. Reassess after stability near the 52-week low zone.
If ORA approaches $84 to $90 (near the 52-week low), compare the current PE multiple, debt-to-EBITDA ratio, and project pipeline versus historical ranges. A reversion trade requires fundamental support from the PPA portfolio and no imminent negative catalyst.
Do not buy the dip solely because of the high PE compression potential. Negative FCF and high leverage mean that a prolonged correction can continue if project delays or resource issues emerge.
Track quarterly earnings growth, PPA contract renewals and pricing, new project announcements and development timelines, debt/EBITDA ratio, free cash flow trajectory, management commentary on capital allocation, and competition from other renewable technologies.
Reduce confidence if FCF remains deeply negative, debt/equity rises above current levels, project delays mount, or the dividend is at risk. A PE compression to 35-40x would imply a stock price closer to $72-83.
Investment research summary
Ormat Technologies is paid by utilities and industrial buyers to provide baseload electricity from geothermal power plants under long-term PPAs. Customers pay because they need 24/7 renewable power that is dispatchable, unlike intermittent solar and wind.
Ormats moat is built on proprietary geothermal technology (including the Ormega100 modular power plant), decades of operational data, long-term PPAs with creditworthy counterparties, interconnection to the grid, and significant barriers to entry in geothermal exploration, drilling, and permitting.
The thesis fails if geothermal project development costs stay high relative to solar-plus-storage, debt becomes harder to service at current leverage levels, steam field output declines, regulatory permitting creates long delays, or the negative FCF forces equity dilution that destroys per-share value.
CEO Doron Blachar has led the company through international expansion and technology development. The capital allocation track record is mixed given the high debt load and persistent negative FCF, but the company has maintained its dividend through cycles.
Ormat sits at the intersection of renewable energy buildout and the growing demand for 24/7 carbon-free electricity from utilities, corporations, and potentially AI data centers. Geothermal is positionally advantaged as a baseload renewable, but economics face pressure from rapidly falling solar-plus-storage costs.
At 53x trailing PE with negative FCF and 125.5% debt/equity, the valuation offers a thin margin of safety. The three-year scenario model suggests a base-case fair value near $91, implying downside from the current $109.77. Margin of safety would improve significantly near $85 or below.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORA price | $109.77 current market snapshot on July 10, 2026 | Financial market quote feed | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.75 billion verified as $109.77 x 61.45M estimated shares, matching the reported market cap within 0.00% | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $9.50 billion | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $1.07 billion (cross-validated median between Yahoo Finance TTM of $1.16B and TradingView FY of $989.54M, with 7.93% deviation noted) | Yahoo Finance; TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $125.75 million, cross-validated within 1.47% between Yahoo Finance ($127.6M) and TradingView ($123.9M) | Yahoo Finance; TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $2.07 (Yahoo Finance) / $2.10 (TradingView) | Yahoo Finance statistics; TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $654.64 million (most recent quarter) | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | 125.51% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | Negative $178.82 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 53.03x TTM PE, 5.82x price/sales, 2.62x price/book, 17.35x EV/EBITDA, 0.44% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.48 annual, 0.44% forward yield, paid quarterly ($0.12 per quarter) | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-year scenario model | Bear $54.9, base $91.3, bull $130.9 using $2.07 EPS, 2% to 12% growth, and 25x to 45x terminal PE | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical trend | Price near $109.77, correcting from the all-time high of $146.39, with support at $100-105 and the 52-week low of $84.13 | Third-party technical quote pages | July 12, 2026 |
This ORA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, SEC filings, risk factors, and your own constraints before making financial decisions.
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