Old National Bancorp research snapshot
ONB AI stock analysis currently views Old National Bancorp as a growing Midwest regional bank that just reported record second quarter results, with disciplined expense control, stable credit, and a constructive technical trend. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, ONB closed at $26.64 on July 31, its market capitalization was about $10.19 billion, trailing EPS was $2.24, trailing P/E was about 11.9x, and price to tangible book was about 1.86x. Second quarter 2026 common net income was $249.4 million, diluted EPS was $0.65, fully taxable equivalent net interest income was $586.5 million, NIM was 3.54%, deposits were $56.1 billion, loans were $50.8 billion, tangible book value per share was $14.32, and the preliminary Tier 1 common equity ratio was 11.09%. This page uses scenario analysis rather than a certain price prediction and is an informational tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$26.64
Market cap
$10.19 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Growing Midwest regional bank with record Q2 2026 results, but integration and rate-cycle risk remain
Trend status
Positive and near the 52-week high, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Old National earns spread income and fees from consumer and commercial banking, wealth, mortgage, capital markets, and treasury services across a large Midwest and Southeast network. The franchise is relationship-led and produced record Q2 2026 net income, but bank earnings remain cyclical. | High |
| Moat | Granular low-cost deposits, local commercial relationships, branch and digital access, underwriting history, and post-Bremer scale create a useful moat. Switching costs and network effects are limited, so deposit pricing and credit discipline still matter more than brand alone. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Jim Ryan and the team have emphasized organic loan growth, record efficiency, capital return, and stable credit. The company expanded its Executive Leadership Team and created an Operating Group, and the main test is sustaining the record run while keeping funding costs and asset quality controlled. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income applicable to common shares was $653.1 million. Q2 2026 common net income reached a record $249.4 million, first half 2026 net income of $479.0 million was up from $262.0 million a year earlier, loans grew 8.3% annualized, and the FTE NIM held at 3.54%. | High |
| Valuation | At $26.64, ONB trades near 11.9x TTM EPS, 1.22x book value, 1.86x tangible book, and a 2.18% dividend yield. That is not a distressed bank valuation and leaves less room for an integration or credit surprise. | High for math, medium for fair value |
| Technical trend | Price is above the $25.36 50-day average and $23.40 200-day average, with RSI near 56.77 and the stock near its $27.32 52-week high. The trend is constructive, and the stock is up about 25% over the past year. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because ONB is a leveraged bank exposed to NIM compression, deposit competition, commercial real estate and commercial credit losses, regulatory capital, merger integration, and regional-bank multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases, SEC filings, and independent financial tables align on the major operating figures. Forecast confidence is lower because the next earnings cycle may change the rate and credit assumptions. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ONB can fit a quality regional-bank watchlist when earnings, NIM, credit, and price remain aligned, but the current level does not offer a wide margin of safety if the record run fades. | Medium |
ONB AI stock forecast
The ONB AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single target. A three-year model using $2.24 TTM EPS produced mechanical reference points near $47 in a bullish case, $37 in a base case, and $20 in a bearish case before dividends. Those outputs are sensitive to EPS growth and the earnings multiple, so the ranges below describe conditions that would make each path more likely.
$42 to $52 over three years before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near 12% annually on top of the raised 2026 guidance, NIM stays near 3.54% or expands, deposits remain competitively priced, credit costs stay near current levels, Bremer integration produces the expected operating leverage, and investors assign a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$31 to $41 over three years before dividends
More likely if EPS grows near 8% annually, NIM remains close to the 3.54% Q2 2026 level, loan growth moderates, credit stays manageable, and ONB trades near a low-teens P/E after the acquisition benefits mature.
$17 to $23 over three years before dividends
More likely if EPS growth stalls, NIM compresses, deposit costs rise, commercial or real estate losses increase, integration charges persist, and the market values ONB near a 9x or lower earnings multiple.
ONB AI technical analysis
ONB AI technical analysis starts from the $26.64 close on July 31, 2026, the $19.39 to $27.32 52-week range, and StockAnalysis statistics available near the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Price is above both moving averages and momentum is constructive, but the stock is near the upper end of its annual range. This static page does not fetch live chart data, so levels, volume, and RSI should be refreshed before any trade.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.64 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31 close and a market capitalization near $10.19 billion at the research cutoff. |
| Near support | $25.36 | This is the reported 50-day moving average. A controlled pullback that holds this zone would leave the intermediate trend intact. |
| Deeper support | $23.40 | This is the reported 200-day moving average and the main longer-term trend reference in the August 3 snapshot. |
| Near resistance | $27.32 | This is the reported 52-week high. A breakout should be checked against volume, NIM, deposits, and credit commentary rather than treated as a signal by itself. |
| Analyst reference zone | $27.00 to $32.00 | The independent forecast page reported a $29.82 average target, with a $27 low and $32 high across 12 analysts. This is context, not a guaranteed resistance band. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $25.36, 200-day $23.40 | Price above both averages supports a positive trend structure, although distance from the 200-day average can increase pullback risk. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.77, constructive but not overbought | Momentum is positive without being at the reported overbought extreme. A loss of the 50-day average would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Volume | 5.05 million 20-day average shares | Use the 20-day average as a comparison point for any breakout or earnings reaction. Volume can rise sharply around bank results and merger news. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.83, with event-driven bank risk | The beta is below the market average, but it does not capture gap risk from credit, deposits, rates, capital, or acquisition headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23.40, then a deterioration in credit or NIM | A sustained break below the 200-day average would weaken the chart thesis. A fundamental break can occur earlier if NIM, deposits, or credit quality deteriorate. |
ONB AI trading strategy
The ONB AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework for a regional bank with positive momentum and merger-related operating risk. It is not personalized advice. Pair any setup with position sizing, updated filings, live charts, and predefined loss limits.
Watch for ONB to hold above the $25.36 50-day average and clear the $27.32 52-week high with stronger volume while NIM, deposits, and credit metrics remain stable. A multi-session hold above the breakout is stronger evidence than one intraday print.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $25.36 should reduce momentum confidence. A break below $23.40 would challenge the larger trend.
If ONB pulls back toward $25.36 or $23.40 without a new deterioration in NIM, deposits, delinquencies, or net charge-offs, compare the price with tangible book value, forward EPS, the dividend, and peer-bank multiples.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if the pullback is caused by rising credit losses, commercial real estate stress, deposit outflows, or a weaker capital outlook.
Track fully taxable equivalent NIM, total and core deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, nonaccrual loans, 30+ day delinquencies, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value, efficiency ratio, ROATCE, Bremer integration costs, share repurchases, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence when earnings growth depends on balance-sheet expansion while funding costs rise, or when reported EPS improves but tangible book value and credit trends weaken.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Old National for deposit safety, credit, payments, treasury management, wealth, mortgage, and commercial banking relationships. The bank earns mainly from the spread between asset yields and funding costs, supplemented by fees. Bremer added scale, deposits, loans, and market reach, and the record Q2 2026 results show the larger platform, but integration and execution still shape per-share results.
The moat is built from granular low-cost deposits, local commercial relationships, credit history, branch and digital access, regulatory licenses, and a larger post-Bremer platform. It is useful but not permanent. Banks can lose deposits, employees, and loan relationships when pricing, service, or credit execution slips.
The thesis can fail if the Federal Reserve rate path compresses NIM, deposit competition raises funding costs, commercial real estate or commercial loans produce larger losses, Bremer integration costs persist, share issuance dilutes per-share growth, or regional-bank multiples contract even while reported earnings remain stable.
Jim Ryan leads Old National as chairman and CEO. The company has used acquisitions, organic loan growth, buybacks, and dividends as capital-allocation tools. Q2 2026 included $107 million of repurchases and $56 million of dividends, and the expanded leadership structure adds execution focus, but the key question is whether the larger platform can produce durable per-share returns without sacrificing credit or funding discipline.
U.S. regional banking is shaped by rate cycles, deposit competition, regulation, business formation, credit migration, and consolidation. There is no single technology-driven winner-take-all effect. Scale can improve efficiency and product breadth, but integration and balance-sheet risk rise with each acquisition.
At about 11.9x TTM EPS and 1.86x tangible book, ONB is priced as a profitable regional bank with continuing earnings power rather than as a distressed asset. The three-year model leaves upside if EPS compounds and the multiple holds, but the margin of safety is narrower if NIM or credit quality deteriorates.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONB price | $26.64 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis ONB market-cap page | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.19 billion, verified as $26.64 x 382.57 million shares with 0.02% deviation | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 382.57 million current shares; 379.43 million float | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $249.4 million common net income; $0.65 diluted EPS; $250.4 million adjusted common net income | SEC Q2 2026 earnings exhibit | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 deposits and loans | $56.1 billion deposits and $50.8 billion loans at June 30, 2026 | SEC Q2 2026 earnings exhibit | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 NIM and credit | 3.54% FTE NIM, 26 bps net charge-offs to average loans, 0.91% nonaccrual loans and 0.29% 30+ day delinquencies to total loans | SEC Q2 2026 earnings exhibit | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 capital and return | 11.09% preliminary Tier 1 common equity ratio, $14.32 tangible book value per share, and 19.8% ROATCE at Q2 2026 | SEC Q2 2026 earnings exhibit | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $653.1 million net income applicable to common shares and $1.79 diluted EPS | Old National FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | About 11.9x trailing P/E, 1.22x P/B, 1.86x P/TBV, 13.99x P/FCF, and 2.18% dividend yield | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $25.36, 200-day average $23.40, RSI 56.77, beta 0.83, and 20-day average volume 5.05 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst reference | $29.82 average target, $27 low, and $32 high from 12 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 estimates | Analyst revenue estimate of $2.91 billion, EPS estimate of $2.61, and 13.26% expected three-year EPS growth | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
This ONB AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a personalized recommendation. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions. They can be wrong, and technical levels can change after new prices, filings, earnings, or market events. Verify current information and consider a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
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