Organon & Co. research snapshot
OGN AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Organon & Co. primarily as a pending all-cash acquisition, not a normal standalone earnings story. On April 26, 2026, Sun Pharma signed a definitive agreement to buy all outstanding Organon shares for $14.00 per share in cash, an enterprise value near $11.75 billion, and Organon stockholders approved the deal at a special meeting on July 23, 2026, with closing expected in early 2027 subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions. The stock traded at $13.56 on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT, up 0.01 or 0.07% from the $13.55 close on July 31, within a session range near $13.55 to $13.57, leaving a gap of about 3.2% to the $14.00 deal price that reflects deal timing and completion risk. Q2 2026 results were filed on July 31, 2026 in the Form 10-Q and a supplemental Form 8-K because the company suspended its earnings press release and call given the pending merger: revenues were $1,558 million, down 2% reported or 5% excluding foreign exchange, GAAP net income was $108 million or $0.40 diluted EPS, adjusted net income was $230 million or $0.85 adjusted diluted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA was $461 million at a 29.6% margin, down from 32.7% a year earlier. The company cut its quarterly dividend to $0.02 per share from $0.28. The positive case is the $14.00 cash value and the merged companys scale of about $12.4 billion in combined revenue. The risk case is that regulatory approval, a broken deal, the high $8.55 billion debt load, litigation, and weak product trends force the stock back toward standalone value, where analyst targets cluster near $11.25. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$13.56 at the August 3, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT reading, up 0.01 or 0.07% from the $13.55 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $13.55 to $13.57
Market cap
$3.56 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Pending $14.00 cash acquisition by Sun Pharma
Trend status
Uptrend pinned just below the $14.00 merger price, above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Organon sells more than 70 products across Women Health, biosimilars, and established brands in over 140 markets, but Q2 2026 revenue fell 2% to $1,558 million and adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 29.6% from 32.7%, with Nexplanon down 4%, Singulair down 27%, and Ontruzant down 81%. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and narrower than peers: Nexplanon and NuvaRing carry brand and physician loyalty in women health, biosimilar regulatory barriers and manufacturing expertise provide some protection, but Singulair, Ontruzant, and other established brands are losing volume to generics and biosimilar competition, and the US Nexplanon franchise is exposed to federal funding uncertainty. | Low-medium |
| Management | Joseph Morrissey became Interim CEO on October 27, 2025 and was named permanent CEO on April 26, 2026, with Carrie Cox as Executive Chair and Michael Casia as Head of US Commercial, after the former CEO was found to have pressured sales of Nexplanon above demand to two US wholesalers, triggering material weaknesses in internal control that management is remediating. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenues were $1,558 million, down 2% reported or 5% excluding FX, GAAP net income was $108 million or $0.40 diluted EPS, adjusted net income was $230 million or $0.85 adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA was $461 million at a 29.6% margin, and H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $876 million at 29.0%, with operating cash flow of $332 million in the first half and a dividend cut to $0.02 per quarter. | High |
| Valuation | At $13.56, OGN trades about 3.2% below the $14.00 Sun Pharma cash merger price, near 17.1x trailing GAAP EPS, 6.28x trailing free cash flow, 3.54x book value, and 7.43x EV/EBITDA, with a 3.79x forward PE on S&P Global estimates, a low multiple that reflects the deal framework more than standalone earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | OGN traded at $13.56 on August 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT, up 0.01 or 0.07% from the $13.55 July 31 close, within a session range near $13.55 to $13.57, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $13.54, $13.52, $13.47, $11.45, and $9.57, with 14-day RSI near 63.50 on Barchart and 62.95 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 54.62, and very low 14-day historical volatility near 2.57% because the stock is pinned near the $14.00 deal price. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are deal break or delay, regulatory review of the Sun Pharma acquisition, the $8.55 billion debt load, Fosamax and Nexplanon product liability litigation, consolidated securities class actions with a Teamsters lead plaintiff, two stockholder derivative suits, an Altman Z-Score of 1.26, falling Nexplanon and Singulair sales, and a 6.19% short interest that reflects lingering doubt about the deal and the standalone business. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, merger terms, and arithmetic that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, MarketBeat, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the July 31, 2026 Form 8-K. Lower for the probability-weighted outcome because regulatory review, closing timing, and a possible broken deal are inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the outcome depends heavily on the merger closing. | Medium |
OGN AI stock forecast
The OGN AI stock forecast is built around the pending Sun Pharma cash acquisition at $14.00 per share, approved by shareholders on July 23, 2026 and expected to close in early 2027. The three-scenario framework produces a deal-completion area near $14, a delayed or revised deal area below $14, and a broken-deal area that reverts toward standalone analyst targets near $8 to $11.25. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$13.90 to $14.50
More likely if the Sun Pharma acquisition clears regulatory review without remedies, closes on schedule in early 2027, a competing bid emerges above $14.00, or a material breakup premium becomes credible, which would push the stock to or above the $14.00 deal price.
$13.40 to $14.00
More likely if the deal closes as announced in early 2027 and the stock trades in a tight range near the $14.00 cash consideration, with the roughly 3% spread reflecting time value and closing risk, which is where the stock has sat since the July 23 shareholder approval.
$8.00 to $11.50
More likely if the merger is blocked, terminated, or delayed beyond expectations, if antitrust remedies make the deal uneconomic, or if standalone operating trends keep weakening, which would push the stock back toward the analyst consensus target near $11.25 and the $8.00 low estimate.
OGN AI technical analysis
OGN AI technical analysis is an uptrend pinned just below the $14.00 merger price as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $13.56 on August 3 at 2:00 PM EDT, up 0.01 or 0.07% from the $13.55 July 31 close, within a session range near $13.55 to $13.57, above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $13.54, $13.52, $13.47, $11.45, and $9.57, with 14-day RSI near 63.50 on Barchart and 62.95 on StockAnalysis.com and 14-day ADX near 54.62 confirming trend strength. 14-day historical volatility is very low near 2.57% because the stock is range-bound under the $14.00 deal price, while 100-day historical volatility near 72.62% reflects the earlier 2026 run from $5.69.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $13.56 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT reading, up 0.01 or 0.07% from the $13.55 July 31 close within a session range near $13.55 to $13.57; the reported $3.56 billion market cap matches the price times 262.61 million shares. |
| Merger price | $14.00 | The all-cash Sun Pharma acquisition price agreed on April 26, 2026 and approved by stockholders on July 23, 2026, acting as a defined cap for the stock near term and leaving a spread of about 3.2% from the August 3 price of $13.56. |
| 5-day moving average | $13.54 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $13.54 on August 3, 2026, just below the current price, consistent with the tight range under the merger price. |
| Near support | $13.45 to $13.50 | Barchart placed the 20-day moving average near $13.52 and the 50-day near $13.47 as of August 3, 2026, forming a tight support cluster just below the price. |
| Next support | $11.00 to $12.00 | The 100-day moving average near $11.45 and the May to June consolidation area provide secondary support if the deal premium were to unwind. |
| Near resistance | $13.60 to $14.00 | The 52-week high of $13.60 is minor resistance, with the $14.00 merger price as the hard ceiling while the deal is pending. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.47 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $13.47 on August 3, 2026, matching StockAnalysis.com at $13.47. |
| 200-day moving average | $9.57 | Barchart reported the 200-day trend line near $9.57 on August 3, 2026, well below the price and reflecting that most of the 2026 rally occurred in a short window. |
| 100-day moving average | $11.45 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $11.45 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63, ADX near 54.6 | 14-day RSI was near 63.50 on Barchart and 62.95 on StockAnalysis.com on August 3, 2026, and 14-day ADX near 54.62 with +DI near 24.04 versus -DI near 6.27 confirmed a strong directional move, though the pattern is deal-driven rather than organic. |
| Volume | About 2.5 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 2.53 million shares and Barchart near 2.53 million on August 3, 2026, well below the 6.07 million average earlier in the year when the stock ran from $5.69. |
| Volatility | Very low near the deal price | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 2.57% and 9-day near 2.58% on August 3, 2026, while 100-day historical volatility near 72.62% captures the earlier 2026 swing, so volatility is compressed while the merger is pending and could expand sharply on a deal event. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.00, then $11.45 | A decisive close below the $13.00 round level would signal the merger premium is unwinding, and a break below the 100-day moving average near $11.45 would point toward a broken-deal scenario. |
OGN AI trading strategy
The OGN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading the pending Sun Pharma acquisition and watching the standalone business. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh deal news, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
For investors who underwrite deal completion, the trade is to hold OGN toward the $14.00 cash consideration while monitoring regulatory review, closing conditions, and any competing bid, with the roughly 3.2% spread as the compensation for time and closing risk.
The position depends on the deal closing. A termination, a regulatory block, or a long delay without compensation should trigger an exit because the standalone business does not justify the current price.
If OGN breaks above the $13.60 high and builds volume toward the $14.00 merger price, momentum traders can watch for deal headlines to drive the final leg, while a drop below $13.00 signals the premium is fading.
A daily close below $13.00 or a close below the 50-day moving average near $13.47 with volume should invalidate the long setup, and the 100-day average near $11.45 is the stop for a broken-deal scenario.
Track the Sun Pharma merger timeline and regulatory approvals, Fosamax and Nexplanon litigation, Nexplanon reinsertion trends after the five-year label, biosimilar launches such as Hadlima and Bildyos, established brand erosion, debt reduction, and cash flow conversion.
Reduce confidence if the deal breaks and revenue keeps falling, if debt servicing and litigation costs absorb cash flow, or if the company resumes heavy restructuring charges that lower adjusted earnings quality.
Investment research summary
Organon sells more than 70 medicines and products across women health, biosimilars, and established brands in over 140 markets, centered on contraception, fertility, immunology, oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, and dermatology, with the immediate value story now set by the $14.00 per share Sun Pharma cash acquisition.
The moat is moderate and product-specific: Nexplanon and NuvaRing hold brand and physician loyalty in women health, biosimilar regulatory pathways and manufacturing expertise give some protection, but generics and biosimilar competition erode established brands such as Singulair and Ontruzant, and the US Nexplanon franchise faces federal funding uncertainty.
The thesis fails if the Sun Pharma merger is blocked or terminated, if regulatory remedies make the deal uneconomic, if Fosamax and Nexplanon litigation and the consolidated securities class actions create material liability, if Nexplanon and biosimilar growth disappoint, if the $8.55 billion debt load restricts flexibility, or if the standalone business keeps losing revenue.
Joseph Morrissey became Interim CEO on October 27, 2025 and was named permanent CEO on April 26, 2026 after the board replaced leadership when the former CEO pressured Nexplanon sales above demand to two US wholesalers. Management is remediating the resulting material weaknesses in internal control and executing the Sun Pharma transaction.
Organon sits in women health, biosimilars, and established brands. Biosimilar adoption is growing and Hadlima grew 59% in Q2 2026, but the sector faces payer pressure, generic competition, patent expirations, and regulatory scrutiny, and the pending Sun Pharma merger would create a top 25 global pharma with about $12.4 billion in combined revenue.
At $13.56, the stock trades about 3.2% below the $14.00 cash merger price and well above the standalone analyst consensus target near $11.25. The margin of safety rests on the deal closing rather than on the underlying earnings power, so a broken deal would remove most of the current valuation support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| OGN price | $13.56 at the August 3, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT reading, up 0.01 or 0.07% from the $13.55 July 31 close, within a session range reported near $13.55 to $13.57 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.56 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with the August 3 price near $13.56 times 262.61 million shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Sun Pharma merger | All-cash acquisition of all outstanding Organon shares at $14.00 per share, enterprise value near $11.75 billion, announced via definitive agreement on April 26, 2026, stockholder approval on July 23, 2026, expected to close in early 2027 subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions | Organon Sun Pharma merger press release | April 26, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenues | $1,558 million, down 2% reported or 5% excluding foreign exchange, with US sales of $398 million down 4% and international sales of $1,160 million down 2% | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net income of $108 million, diluted EPS of $0.40, gross profit of $847 million at a 54.4% margin, interest expense of $108 million, and a 41.3% GAAP tax rate | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and July 31, 2026 Form 8-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted net income of $230 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $0.85, adjusted gross profit of $915 million at a 58.7% margin, adjusted EBITDA of $461 million at a 29.6% margin, and a 28.8% adjusted tax rate | Organon July 31, 2026 Form 8-K supplemental financial information | August 4, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Revenues of $3,018 million, down 3% reported or 7% excluding foreign exchange, GAAP net income of $254 million or $0.95 diluted EPS, adjusted net income of $418 million or $1.57 adjusted diluted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA of $876 million at a 29.0% margin | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and July 31, 2026 Form 8-K | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 women health sales | Nexplanon/Implanon NXT of $230 million, down 4%, NuvaRing of $27 million, Marvelon/Mercilon of $32 million, Follistim AQ of $59 million, down 19%, and no Jada sales following the January 2026 divestiture | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q product sales | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 biosimilar sales | Hadlima of $79 million, up 59%, Renflexis of $65 million, up 4%, Bildyos/Bilprevda of $19 million, Ontruzant of $6 million, down 81%, and Brenzys of $14 million, down 34% | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q product sales | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 established brand sales | Zetia/Vytorin of $118 million, up 16%, Atozet of $80 million, Cozaar/Hyzaar of $50 million, Singulair of $48 million, down 27%, Nasonex of $58 million, down 12%, Arcoxia of $69 million, up 11%, Vtama of $35 million, up 15%, and Emgality of $54 million, up 27% | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q product sales | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash and cash equivalents of $1,132 million and total debt of $8,553 million as of June 30, 2026, with $74 million current and $8,479 million long-term, matching the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Net debt and book value | Net cash position of negative $7,421 million, or about $28.26 per share, and total stockholders equity of $1,006 million, or about $3.83 per share, as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 262.61 million shares outstanding, with 262,609,433 shares as of July 24, 2026 per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow | First-half 2026 operating cash flow of $332 million, capital expenditures of $79 million, Jada divestiture proceeds of $433 million, dividend payments of $11 million, and debt repayments of $32 million | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and earnings | TTM revenue of $6.13 billion, down 2.5%, net income of $209 million, EPS of $0.79, operating cash flow of $737 million, and free cash flow of $567 million, or $2.16 per share | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 17.10x trailing GAAP EPS, 3.79x forward PE, 0.58x sales, 6.28x free cash flow, 3.54x book value, 7.43x EV/EBITDA, 19.37x EV/FCF, 1.13x PEG, and 0.59% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $11.25 across 5 analysts, low $8.00 and high $14.00, median $11.50, with price targets last updated April 28, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix | 0 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 3 Hold, 4 Sell out of 8 analysts in April 2026, narrowing to 5 analysts by July 2026, with MarketBeat reporting a Reduce consensus across 7 analysts and a target of $11.40 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Exane BNP Paribas downgraded to Hold with a $15 to $14 target on April 28, Piper Sandler upgraded to Hold with a $5 to $14 target on April 27, Morgan Stanley maintained Hold at $9, and Barclays maintained Sell with a $7.50 to $8 target | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 16.24 million shares short, 6.19% of shares outstanding, 6.52 days to cover, down from 19.01 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.02 per share, annual dividend of $0.08 with a 0.59% yield, ex-dividend and record date August 14, 2026, payable September 10, 2026, cut from $0.28 per quarter, and first-half 2026 dividend payments of $11 million versus $81 million a year earlier | Organon quarterly dividend press release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | July 31, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $5.69 to $13.60, up 89.1% year to date from the $7.17 start of 2026 price, up 39.03% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.52 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics and MarketBeat | August 4, 2026 |
| Financial health scores | Altman Z-Score of 1.26, which sits below 3 and signals elevated distress risk, and a Piotroski F-Score of 6 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $13.54, 20-day SMA near $13.52, 50-day SMA near $13.47, 100-day SMA near $11.45, 200-day SMA near $9.57, 14-day RSI near 63.50 on Barchart and 62.95 on StockAnalysis.com, 14-day ADX near 54.62, 14-day historical volatility near 2.57%, and 20-day average volume near 2.53 million shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Fosamax litigation | Merck is the defendant in approximately 498 federal cases, 1,478 New Jersey state cases, one Pennsylvania case, and about 149 California cases involving Fosamax, with a February 18, 2026 Master Settlement Agreement releasing at least 95% of California claimants for a confidential, non-material payment | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q legal proceedings | August 4, 2026 |
| Nexplanon product liability | Two filed product liability actions involving Implanon pending in the Northern District of Ohio plus 56 unfiled tolled cases, one Nexplanon matter in California, and 19 cases pending outside the US, with a March 12, 2026 Master Settlement Agreement releasing 56 plaintiffs and claimants for a confidential, non-material payment | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q legal proceedings | August 4, 2026 |
| Securities class actions | Consolidated securities class actions in the US District Court for the District of New Jersey with Teamsters Local 710 Pension Fund as lead plaintiff, an amended complaint filed May 8, 2026 alleging false statements about capital allocation and dividends plus Nexplanon-related claims, and two consolidated stockholder derivative suits stayed since September 2025 | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q legal proceedings | August 4, 2026 |
| Material weaknesses and remediation | The former CEO and leader of the US commercial organization applied pressure to sell Nexplanon above demand to two US wholesalers and engaged in conduct violating the Code of Conduct, contributing to material weaknesses in tone at the top and information and communication controls, with a remediation plan executed during 2026 and disclosure controls effective as of June 30, 2026 | Organon Q2 2026 Form 10-Q controls and procedures | August 4, 2026 |
This OGN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, deal developments, legal rulings, market moves, or macro conditions. The pending Sun Pharma acquisition can be delayed, revised, or terminated.
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