The New York Times Company research snapshot
NYT AI stock analysis currently reads The New York Times Company as a high-quality digital subscription media business with growing digital-only subscribers, rising digital advertising, and a net-cash balance sheet, but with only moderate investment certainty because the stock already prices durable growth. As of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $74.30 with about a $12.03 billion market cap. The AI analysis favors scenario ranges over a single price target: fundamentals remain strong, free cash flow is healthy, and the main debate is whether the premium multiple can hold if subscriber growth, ARPU, or ad demand slows. This page is informational research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$74.30
Market cap
$12.03 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Quality digital media compounder, valuation watch
Trend status
Constructive after Q1 beat, still below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Strong subscription-first media franchise with news, Games, Cooking, The Athletic, and Wirecutter supporting recurring digital revenue. | High |
| Moat | Brand trust and multiproduct habit are durable. Platform distribution risk and free news alternatives still limit the width of the moat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Leadership continues to execute digital growth, buybacks, and dividend increases, while dual-class control concentrates voting power with the Sulzberger family. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue reached $2.82 billion and net income $344 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 12% to $712.2 million with 310,000 net digital-only subscriber adds. | High |
| Valuation | At $74.30, NYT trades near 31.9x TTM diluted EPS of $2.33 and about 22x 2025 free cash flow per share, a premium multiple for media. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NYT sits between a 52-week low of $51.03 and a 52-week high of $87.10, so the setup depends on holding the low-$70s and reclaiming the upper-$70s to mid-$80s. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include AI content disruption, advertising cycles, print decline, dual-class governance, and multiple compression if growth cools. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Public data is deep enough for descriptive analysis, but less certain for future returns because valuation is sensitive to growth expectations. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The franchise is understandable and cash generative, but a clear margin of safety is not obvious at current prices without continued digital compounding. | Medium |
NYT AI stock forecast
The NYT AI stock forecast should be treated as scenario math, not a price promise. Using a July 9, 2026 market price of $74.30, FY2025 diluted EPS of about $2.09, TTM EPS near $2.33, and a three-year framework tested with financial_rigor.py, the modeled range spans a bearish high-$30s area, a base mid-$60s area, and a bullish mid-$90s to about $102 area before dividends. The outcome is highly sensitive to digital subscriber growth, ARPU, digital advertising, free cash flow conversion, and the multiple investors assign to quality media.
$95 to $102
More likely if digital-only subscriptions keep compounding toward the company ambition of 15 million total subscribers, digital advertising stays strong, buybacks reduce share count, and the market still awards a high-20s to low-30s earnings multiple.
$65 to $70
More likely if EPS grows at a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit rate and the multiple settles near the mid-20s as print fades and growth normalizes after the recent acceleration.
$37 to $42
More likely if subscriber net adds slow, advertising softens, AI platforms reduce traffic or content value, or the market applies a mid-teens multiple to stagnant earnings.
NYT AI technical analysis
NYT AI technical analysis is constructive but not fully confirmed as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The latest verified close was $74.30 on July 9, 2026. The stock sits between a 52-week low of $51.03 and a 52-week high of $87.10 after a post-earnings rebound earlier in 2026, so the tactical question is whether buyers can hold the low-$70s and push back through the upper-$70s.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $74.30 | Yahoo Finance closing price on July 9, 2026. |
| Near support | $72.00 to $73.00 | Recent trading band around the latest close. A break below this zone would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Deeper support | $51.03 | Yahoo Finance 52-week low. This is a risk reference, not a forecast target. |
| Near resistance | $78.00 to $82.00 | Upper band before a fuller retest of the prior high zone. |
| 52-week high | $87.10 | A decisive move above this level would signal renewed long-term momentum. |
| Moving averages | Not independently verified | Moving-average values were not included in the public source set used for this page. Use live chart data before trading. |
| Momentum | Constructive but range-bound | The stock is well above the annual low and still below the annual high, indicating recovery without a confirmed breakout. |
| Volume | About 0.97 million shares on July 9, 2026 | Yahoo Finance session volume versus roughly 1.9 million average volume. Volume confirmation matters on any breakout attempt. |
| Invalidation | Close below $72.00 | A decisive close below the recent support band would invalidate the short-term constructive setup. |
NYT AI trading strategy
The NYT AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personal advice. It combines the digital subscription compounder story with price confirmation, valuation discipline, and clear invalidation levels.
Watch for NYT to reclaim and hold the $78 to $82 area with stronger volume, then compare the move with digital subscriber adds, ARPU, digital advertising growth, and buyback pace.
Define invalidation before entry. A failed breakout back below $78 or a close below $72 can be used as a rules-based signal that momentum did not confirm.
If NYT pulls back toward the low-$70s or high-$60s without a thesis break, compare the price with free cash flow, net cash, and the next subscriber update.
Avoid averaging down without a stop. A move toward the mid-$50s would require a fresh review of digital growth, advertising demand, and multiple compression risk.
Track total and digital-only subscribers, digital ARPU, digital advertising, licensing income, free cash flow, share repurchases, and AI litigation or licensing developments.
Do not treat AI content licensing as guaranteed. Scenario ranges should be updated after earnings, traffic data, and any major content or platform agreements.
Investment research summary
Customers pay The New York Times for trusted independent journalism and premium lifestyle products such as Games, Cooking, The Athletic, and Wirecutter. The core economic engine is recurring digital subscriptions, supported by digital advertising, print products, affiliate referrals, and licensing.
The strongest advantages are brand trust, daily habit formation across multiproduct bundles, and scale in high-quality journalism. The weaker points are print economics, platform dependency for discovery, and competition from free or low-cost news and entertainment alternatives.
The thesis fails if AI platforms commoditize news without adequate payment, digital net adds stall, advertising softens, costs rise faster than revenue, brand trust is damaged, or the premium multiple compresses while growth slows.
CEO Meredith Kopit Levien has continued the shift from a newspaper company to a digital subscription company. Capital allocation favors organic product investment, dividends, and Class A share repurchases, while dual-class ownership keeps long-term control concentrated.
NYT sits in a long-term shift from print and platform-dependent advertising toward direct digital relationships. AI can create licensing revenue and efficiency, but it also raises content-scraping, traffic, and copyright risks that remain unresolved for the sector.
At $74.30, the stock prices a durable digital compounder. Quality is high and the balance sheet is strong with about $1.1 billion of cash and marketable securities and no outstanding debt as of March 31, 2026, but the margin of safety is limited unless growth and free cash flow continue to compound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYT price | $74.30 at the July 9, 2026 close | Yahoo Finance NYT quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.03 billion on Yahoo Finance; $12.03 billion using $74.30 x 161.86 million shares | Yahoo Finance and Morningstar share count cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.825 billion, up 9.2% year over year | New York Times Company Q4 2025 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $344.0 million, up 17.1% year over year | New York Times Company Q4 2025 earnings release, cross-checked to Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $550.5 million versus $381.3 million in 2024 | New York Times Company Q4 2025 earnings release, cross-checked to Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | Revenue $712.2 million, up 12.0%; diluted EPS $0.54; adjusted diluted EPS $0.61 | New York Times Company Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Total subscribers | 13.08 million total and 12.52 million digital-only as of March 31, 2026 | New York Times Company Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and marketable securities | $1.1 billion as of March 31, 2026; no outstanding debt | New York Times Company Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS and trailing P/E | TTM diluted EPS about $2.33; trailing P/E about 31.9x at $74.30 | Yahoo Finance key statistics, tool-verified | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $51.03 to $87.10 | Yahoo Finance NYT quote | July 12, 2026 |
This NYT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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